F episode 20260731_F_EARLY
Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.
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"episode_id": "20260731_F_EARLY",
"episode_url": "https://trydingday.com/data/agents/v1/episodes/20260731_F_EARLY.html",
"public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/2026/07/31/tryding-early-20260731-f-d857270d3a06/",
"published_at": "2026-07-31T18:53:22.695040Z",
"updated_at": "2026-08-21T22:25:00Z",
"lifecycle": {
"tracking_status": "closed",
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"stage": "closed"
},
"instrument": {
"type": "equity",
"symbol": "F",
"exchange": "",
"name": "Ford Motor Company"
},
"technical_reference": {
"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "not_recorded_in_published_episode"
},
"public_content": {
"date": "July 31, 2026",
"generated_at": "2026-07-31T18:53:22.695040Z",
"original_published_at": null,
"session_tag": "early",
"label": "Market coverage",
"try_label": "Early Try",
"public_status": "Early Try",
"why_today": "Early Try: F. F ranks first among fourteen valid prepared coiled cases for an early public review, but the thesis remains conditional on confirmation and disciplined invalidation. A United States research input is stale by one Canary day; this lowers confidence but does not veto the comparison. This is a prospective review and not an execution instruction.",
"entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: F is the strongest prospective candidate in the prepared comparison, with an early continuation thesis that remains conditional. Invalidation boundary: A provider-verifiable observation that fails to preserve the supporting structure or participation invalidates the early thesis.",
"reference_price": 14.58,
"scanner": {
"price": 14.58,
"reference": 14.58,
"score": null,
"score_version": "legacy research",
"change": -1.88,
"volume": 25146863,
"average_volume": 64428401,
"volume_ratio": 0.39,
"rsi": null,
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"sentiment": null,
"sentiment_score": null,
"earnings_warning": null,
"options_snapshot": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"coiled_spring": {
"count": null,
"status": "confirmed_break"
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"short_pct_float": null,
"days_to_cover": null,
"catalyst": null,
"sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
"exchange": null,
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"reference": 14.58,
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"status": "Consensus",
"summary": "Early Try: F. F ranks first among fourteen valid prepared coiled cases for an early public review, but the thesis remains conditional on confirmation and disciplined invalidation. A United States research input is stale by one Canary day; this lowers confidence but does not veto the comparison. This is a prospective review and not an execution instruction.",
"views": [
{
"name": "Elena Vartanyan",
"role": "independent statistical auditor",
"icon": "🎯",
"view": "Across the fourteen valid prepared cases, F is the only candidate identified in the actionable coiled summary. That gives it the strongest prospective basis, while still keeping the thesis explicitly early-stage.",
"reasoning": "The committee has not changed the conclusion after the risk challenge. F remains selected, but the thesis is conditional and the public output should not imply execution or certainty."
},
{
"name": "Marcus Feld",
"role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
"icon": "🦊",
"view": "The selection is not risk-free. The prepared levels show an entry of 15.28, a stop of 14.07 and a target of 16.01, so the upside is narrower than the downside. That limits conviction.",
"reasoning": "I will accept the selection with a material objection recorded. The prepared target does not compensate fully for the stated stop distance, and the United States research input carries a freshness warning."
},
{
"name": "Kenji Osei",
"role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
"icon": "🧠",
"view": "F nevertheless has the clearest technical progression in the supplied comparison: a retrospective break dated 2026-07-29 and two sessions since that break. It is the only case with actionable status in the prepared summary.",
"reasoning": "That objection changes confidence, not the ranking. No other prepared case has a stronger actionable designation in the sealed comparison, so rejecting F would require treating the absence of a better alternative as a veto."
},
{
"name": "Priya Nandakumar",
"role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
"icon": "🛡️",
"view": "The comparison must include all fourteen cases, not just the actionable summary. ONDO.L has a strong observed move and relative strength, but it remains a watch case rather than the prepared actionable choice. The remaining cases do not displace F on the supplied evidence.",
"reasoning": "Final resolution: consensus for F as an Early Try, with moderate confidence. The persistent objections are asymmetric levels, retrospective break timing and one stale research input; none reverses the comparative result."
},
{
"name": "Nate Brooks",
"role": "market structure and timing analyst",
"icon": "📈",
"view": "From a price-structure perspective, F is better framed as an early continuation attempt than as a confirmed trend. The break is retrospective, so the public wording should avoid implying that confirmation has already occurred.",
"reasoning": "Agreed. The correct public emphasis is that F leads the prepared set while remaining exposed to failure of continuation. The stale research warning should remain visible as a confidence limitation."
}
],
"conviction": {
"status_phrase": "consensus",
"basis": "F leads the prepared comparison, but retrospective timing, asymmetric prepared levels and a stale research input limit conviction.",
"risk": "",
"resolution_pct": 78.0,
"counter_case_pct": 15.0,
"unresolved_pct": 7.0
},
"context_roundtable": {
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"status": "complete",
"consulted_voice_ids": [
"elena",
"marcus",
"kenji",
"priya",
"nate"
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"summary": "Higher European inflation, a looming US jobs report and another heavy earnings week left the equity tape advancing under a rising-yield test. Oil and the dollar added friction while technology tried to keep leadership.",
"long_read": "Euro-zone inflation ticked higher, the jobs report moved to center stage and the US market faced another week of large earnings. Yields were rising even as the Nasdaq advanced, while oil and shipping flows remained tied to the Middle East narrative. Gold buying and dollar weakness suggested that investors were still hedging the path rather than expressing one clean macro conviction.\n\nThe desk read the session as a market making room for growth while keeping the emergency exits visible. Strong relative performance could attract attention, but the next labor and earnings data would decide whether the advance had a foundation or merely a favorable place in the calendar. The unresolved rate-and-growth trade was the story.",
"transcript": [
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "The risk was a crowded growth trade meeting a hotter inflation print or a disappointing earnings guide at exactly the wrong moment. The comfortable version of that story has an execution bill attached.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.investors.com/news/exxon-earnings-chevron-earnings-q2-oil-stocks?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "Higher European inflation, a looming US jobs report and another heavy earnings week left the equity tape advancing under a rising-yield test. That is the story on paper. The market still has to hold it."
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "The market climbed with yields rising, which is a more interesting fact than the green index by itself. I will grant the fact. I am not carrying the inference for free.",
"source_urls": [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/teetering-us-stock-market-faces-100238136.html"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "The jobs report and large-cap earnings were about to determine whether technology leadership could carry the next leg. I hear the scepticism. I do not accept the dismissal.",
"source_urls": [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-falls-more-1-greater-030001809.html"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "Oil, the dollar and gold were all adding caveats to an equity advance that looked cleaner from a distance. Those are related headlines, not the same observation.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-apple-amazon-earnings-microsoft-powers-ai-stock?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "A good headline does not make the risk disappear; it moves the risk."
}
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.investors.com/news/exxon-earnings-chevron-earnings-q2-oil-stocks?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo",
"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/teetering-us-stock-market-faces-100238136.html",
"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-falls-more-1-greater-030001809.html",
"https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-apple-amazon-earnings-microsoft-powers-ai-stock?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo"
]
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"headline": "Teetering US stock market faces jobs report, big earnings week",
"url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/teetering-us-stock-market-faces-100238136.html",
"publisher": "Reuters",
"source_quality": "market_context",
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"headline": "Oil steady as traders assess shipping flows; monthly gains in sight",
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"headline": "Dow Jones Futures: Apple, Amazon Diverge Late; What To Do After AI Stocks Surge",
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"headline": "Chevron Earnings Skyrocket Amid Iran War Price Surge; Exxon On Tap",
"url": "https://www.investors.com/news/exxon-earnings-chevron-earnings-q2-oil-stocks?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo",
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"published_at": "2026-07-31T10:29:46Z",
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"updates": [
{
"day": 15,
"timestamp": "2026-08-21T22:25:00Z",
"date": "Session 15 · Aug 21, 2026 · 18:25 NYSE",
"text": "F's 15-session tracking closes at -1.17% from the $14.58 reference. The fresh regular capture was $14.41, up 3.00% on the session and 2.88% from the prior close on 0.69x participation; the extended quote was $14.42, up 0.07%. The original Early Try ranked F first among fourteen cases but required confirmation. The path reached +3.29% before the recovery failed. RSI 45.09 and EMA 14.34 > 14.33 > 14.12 remain available; 52-week position data and episode-specific X evidence do not. Tracking ends.",
"price": 14.52,
"pct": -0.41,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.41,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.41,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.64,
"session_day": 15,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.52 · -0.41% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": true,
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{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-08-20T21:43:56.883008Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Aug 20, 2026 · 17:43 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked result slipped 0.21 percentage points to -4.05%, while the latest capture fell 3.52% on 0.71x volume. Price is only 0.12% above the session's average traded price, but the stock remains 8.41 points behind its sector and neutral flow offers little repair; the early continuation thesis is still materially weakened, not restored.",
"price": 13.99,
"pct": -4.05,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.05,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.05,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.17,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.99 · -4.05% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $13.98 (-0.07% vs regular close) · Aug 20, 2026 · 17:25 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 13.98,
"ext_pct": -0.07,
"as_of": "2026-08-20T21:25:01Z",
"persisted": false
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{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-08-20T19:26:57.703582Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Aug 20, 2026 · 15:26 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked result improved 1.27 percentage points to -3.84%, but the current capture fell 3.34% on 0.55x volume. Price remains just above the session average traded price by 0.18%, yet decelerating participation, neutral flow and an 8.05-point sector shortfall leave the early continuation thesis materially weakened.",
"price": 14.015,
"pct": -3.84,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.88,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.88,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.48,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.02 · -3.88% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
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"relevant": false,
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},
{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-08-20T14:25:00.528519Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Aug 20, 2026 · 10:25 NYSE",
"text": "F tracked result has fallen 4.56 points since the last public note to -5.11%, while the current capture is down 3.83% at 13.945, 1.03% below the session average traded price and only 0.12x volume. The recovery has failed sharply: price is at the bottom of its range, the stock trails its sector, and the early continuation thesis is materially weakened rather than repaired.",
"price": 13.945,
"pct": -5.11,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.36,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.36,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.81,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.95 · -4.36% from $14.58 base",
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"relevant": true,
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{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-08-19T21:47:52.307960Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Aug 19, 2026 · 17:47 NYSE",
"text": "F's recovery extended to a +4.09% capture on 0.79x volume, 1.42% above the session's average traded price and near the top of its range, bringing the tracked result to -0.55% on day 13. The rebound interrupts the recent deterioration, but the stock still trails its consumer-cyclical sector and fading participation leaves the early continuation thesis without durable follow-through.",
"price": 14.5,
"pct": -0.55,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.55,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.55,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.17,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.50 · -0.55% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
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{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-08-19T20:07:09.173625Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Aug 19, 2026 · 16:07 NYSE",
"text": "F's rebound extended with a 3.91% capture on 0.75x volume, 1.42% above the session's average traded price and near the top of its range. The move interrupts the recent deterioration, but it still trails the consumer-cyclical sector and participation is fading, leaving the early continuation thesis without durable follow-through.",
"price": 14.475,
"pct": -0.62,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.72,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.72,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.99,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.47 · -0.72% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
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{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-08-19T15:16:38.848167Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Aug 19, 2026 · 11:16 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return is now -2.23% on day 13, up 2.23 points from the last public note as the current capture rose 2.87% above VWAP on 0.18x volume. The rebound is real enough to interrupt the recent deterioration, but distribution, a sector shortfall and quiet participation leave the early continuation thesis without durable follow-through.",
"price": 14.33,
"pct": -2.23,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.71,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.71,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.75,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.33 · -1.71% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-08-19T12:52:14.589141Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Aug 19, 2026 · 08:52 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return is -4.46% on day 13, down 0.55 points from the last public note. The capture fell 0.85% on 0.45x volume, with a downward average order, distribution and a 3.18-point sector shortfall; the earlier rebound still lacks durable follow-through.",
"price": 13.93,
"pct": -4.46,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.46,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.46,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.1,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.93 · -4.46% from $14.58 base",
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"relevant": false,
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{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-08-18T19:46:41.230786Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Aug 18, 2026 · 15:46 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return has improved 0.31 points since the last public note, but the current capture still fell 0.75% on 0.29x volume. A near-flat average order, neutral flow and a small sector shortfall leave the earlier rebound without durable follow-through.",
"price": 13.945,
"pct": -3.91,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.36,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.36,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.22,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.95 · -4.36% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
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"relevant": false,
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{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-08-18T15:00:55.410743Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Aug 18, 2026 · 11:00 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return has fallen 0.58 points to -4.22% on day 12, while the current capture is down 0.53% on only 0.09x volume and sits 0.02% below the session's average traded price. A nearly flat EMA order, neutral flow and a 2.40-point sector shortfall leave the earlier rebound as a research case without durable follow-through.",
"price": 13.9758,
"pct": -4.22,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.14,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.14,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.5,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.98 · -4.14% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
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"relevant": false,
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{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-08-18T12:57:04.732854Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Aug 18, 2026 · 08:57 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return has fallen 0.18 points to -3.64% on day 12 after the latest capture dropped 2.23% on 0.49x volume; fresh VWAP data is unavailable in the premarket snapshot. The nearly flat EMA order, distribution and a 1.41-point sector shortfall leave the earlier rebound as a research case without durable follow-through.",
"price": 14.05,
"pct": -3.64,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.64,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.64,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.14,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.05 · -3.64% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
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{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-08-17T19:46:29.149271Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Aug 17, 2026 · 15:46 NYSE",
"text": "F tracked return has fallen 0.85 points since the prior public update as the latest capture dropped 2.09% on 0.42x relative volume and moved 0.57% below VWAP. The earlier rebound remains a ranked research case, but neutral flow, a nearly flat EMA order and a 1.38-point sector shortfall leave durable follow-through unconfirmed.",
"price": 14.07,
"pct": -3.46,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.5,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.5,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.76,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.07 · -3.50% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
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},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-08-17T15:03:39.985995Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Aug 17, 2026 · 11:03 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return remains -1.44% on day 11 as the latest capture fell 1.32% on 0.10x relative volume near the middle of its range. Price is almost exactly at the session's average traded price, while the EMA order is nearly flat, flow is neutral and the stock trails its sector by 0.75 points; the earlier rebound has not become durable follow-through.",
"price": 14.18,
"pct": -2.61,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.74,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.74,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.3,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.18 · -2.74% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-08-17T12:40:05.530695Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Aug 17, 2026 · 08:40 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return remains -1.44% on day 11 even after a 3.46% rise on 0.79x relative volume near the top of its range. The rebound helps the earlier break, but mixed EMA structure, distribution and a 1.41-point sector shortfall still leave continuation unconfirmed.",
"price": 14.37,
"pct": -1.44,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.44,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.44,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.37 · -1.44% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $14.38 (+0.10% vs regular close) · Aug 17, 2026 · 08:22 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 14.38,
"ext_pct": 0.1,
"as_of": "2026-08-17T12:22:18Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-08-15T00:50:20.866495Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Aug 14, 2026 · 20:50 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return slipped 0.24 points to -1.44% even as the latest capture rose 3.46% on 0.78x relative volume, 0.91% above the session's average traded price near the top of its range. Time-adjusted participation and the rebound help the retrospective break, but negative flow, mixed EMA structure and a 1.41-point sector shortfall keep continuation unconfirmed.",
"price": 14.37,
"pct": -1.44,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.44,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.44,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.33,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.37 · -1.44% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-08-14T19:35:41.263477Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Aug 14, 2026 · 15:35 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return improved 1.95 points to -1.20% as the latest capture rose 3.80% on 0.63x relative volume and moved 1.47% above the session's average traded price. The price is near the top of its range, but distribution, mixed EMAs and a sector shortfall keep this bounce in repair rather than renewed demand.",
"price": 14.4183,
"pct": -1.2,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.11,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.11,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.67,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.42 · -1.11% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-08-14T15:10:44.584397Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Aug 14, 2026 · 11:10 NYSE",
"text": "F's published return improved 1.58 points to -3.15% as the latest capture rose 2.05% on 0.17x relative volume. The price is 0.25% above the session's average traded price, but distribution, a 3.18-point sector shortfall and mixed EMAs keep the bounce in repair rather than renewed demand.",
"price": 14.175,
"pct": -3.15,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.78,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.78,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.95,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.18 · -2.78% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-08-14T12:42:03.973144Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Aug 14, 2026 · 08:42 NYSE",
"text": "F's latest capture rose 0.43%, but its tracked return slipped 0.03 points to -4.73% on 0.38x relative volume while money flow stayed in distribution. Mixed EMAs and a 3.06-point Consumer Cyclical shortfall keep the earlier break under pressure; the modest bounce is repair, not renewed demand.",
"price": 13.89,
"pct": -4.73,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.73,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.73,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.03,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.89 · -4.73% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $13.90 (-0.04% vs regular close) · Aug 14, 2026 · 08:20 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 13.9,
"ext_pct": -0.04,
"as_of": "2026-08-14T12:20:53Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-08-13T19:33:50.598637Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Aug 13, 2026 · 15:33 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return gave back 0.55 points from -4.15% after the latest capture rose 0.47% on 0.30x relative volume and sat 0.11% below the session's average traded price. Mixed EMAs, distribution and a 3.08-point Consumer Cyclical shortfall keep the earlier break under pressure; the modest bounce is repair, not renewed demand.",
"price": 13.895,
"pct": -4.7,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.7,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.7,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.55,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.89 · -4.70% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-08-13T14:58:50.136430Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Aug 13, 2026 · 10:58 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return improved 0.99 percentage points to -4.15%, while the latest capture rose 1.05% on only 0.09x volume and held 0.25% above the session's average traded price. The mixed EMA order, RSI 45.99 and distributive flow fit continued pressure; a 2.59-point Consumer Cyclical shortfall leaves the earlier repair thesis unconfirmed.",
"price": 13.975,
"pct": -4.15,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.15,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.15,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.99,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.97 · -4.15% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-08-13T12:42:19.662138Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Aug 13, 2026 · 08:42 NYSE",
"text": "F tracked return slipped another 0.24 points from -4.90%, with the latest capture down 1.07% on 0.49x volume. The mixed EMA order, RSI 47.27 and distributive flow fit continued pressure; a 3.23-point Consumer Cyclical shortfall leaves the earlier repair thesis unconfirmed.",
"price": 13.83,
"pct": -5.14,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.14,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.14,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.3,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.83 · -5.14% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $13.87 (+0.22% vs regular close) · Aug 13, 2026 · 08:20 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 13.87,
"ext_pct": 0.22,
"as_of": "2026-08-13T12:20:59Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-08-12T20:27:57.970977Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Aug 12, 2026 · 16:27 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return is -4.9%, down 0.2 points since the previous public note, while the latest capture moved -0.75% on 0.4x volume and sat 0.11% from VWAP. The published thesis remains under pressure; a 3.11-point Consumer Cyclical shortfall and the current structure remain relevant, but The weak capture keeps the repair question open rather than confirming a turn.",
"price": 13.875,
"pct": -4.9,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.84,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.84,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.17,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.88 · -4.84% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-08-12T14:59:26.481854Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Aug 12, 2026 · 10:59 NYSE",
"text": "F remains at -4.70%, down 0.58 points since the last note, while the latest capture fell 0.93% on 0.11x volume and sat 0.50% below VWAP. The weak EMA stack, neutral flow and 2.89-point sector shortfall keep the early continuation thesis in repair territory; the latest move is not a structural recovery.",
"price": 13.85,
"pct": -4.7,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.01,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.01,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.89,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.85 · -5.01% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-08-12T13:29:31.177839Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Aug 12, 2026 · 09:29 NYSE",
"text": "F remains at -4.12% while the latest capture gained 0.94% on 0.56x volume. The weak EMA stack, neutral flow and 2.59-point sector shortfall keep the early continuation thesis in repair territory; the uptick is not yet a structural recovery.",
"price": 13.98,
"pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.98 · -4.12% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $14.06 (+0.54% vs regular close) · Aug 12, 2026 · 09:13 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 14.06,
"ext_pct": 0.54,
"as_of": "2026-08-12T13:13:22Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-08-12T12:42:11.402745Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Aug 12, 2026 · 08:42 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return held at -4.12% while the latest capture gained 0.94% on 0.56x volume. The weak EMA stack, neutral flow and 2.59-point sector shortfall keep the early continuation thesis in repair territory; the uptick is not yet a structural recovery.",
"price": 13.98,
"pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.98 · -4.12% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $14.00 (+0.15% vs regular close) · Aug 12, 2026 · 08:20 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 14.0,
"ext_pct": 0.15,
"as_of": "2026-08-12T12:20:59Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-08-11T21:39:55.995692Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Aug 11, 2026 · 17:39 NYSE",
"text": "F gained 0.94% in the latest capture but stayed 0.64% below VWAP on 0.56x participation, with neutral flow and a weak relative position against its sector. The small repair does not yet restore the early thesis; the historical break still needs acceptance with stronger participation.",
"price": 13.98,
"pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.14,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.98 · -4.12% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $13.97 (-0.08% vs regular close) · Aug 11, 2026 · 17:26 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 13.97,
"ext_pct": -0.08,
"as_of": "2026-08-11T21:26:04Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-08-11T19:36:15.551707Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Aug 11, 2026 · 15:36 NYSE",
"text": "F\\u0027s tracked return improved 1.23 points to -4.18% as the latest capture gained 1.08%, but price remained 0.57% below VWAP on 0.44x participation. The move is limited repair: the weak EMA stack, a 2.49-point sector deficit and neutral flow do not yet restore the early continuation thesis.",
"price": 14.0,
"pct": -4.18,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.98,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.98,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.45,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.00 · -3.98% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-08-11T14:55:55.376725Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Aug 11, 2026 · 10:55 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return improved 1.03 points to -2.95% as the latest capture rose 1.55% and held 0.32% above VWAP, but participation was only 0.11x. The move offers limited repair; a weak EMA stack, 2.30-point sector deficit and neutral flow do not yet restore the early thesis.",
"price": 14.065,
"pct": -2.95,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.53,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.53,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.45,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.06 · -3.53% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-08-11T12:39:41.853656Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Aug 11, 2026 · 08:39 NYSE",
"text": "F was nearly flat at +0.14% on 0.55x participation while its tracked return held at -3.98%. The EMA stack remains weak, the stock trails its sector by 2.05 points over 20 sessions and flow is neutral, making this limited repair rather than a restored early thesis.",
"price": 14.0,
"pct": -3.98,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.98,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.98,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.00 · -3.98% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $13.89 (+0.18% vs regular close) · Aug 11, 2026 · 08:19 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 13.89,
"ext_pct": 0.18,
"as_of": "2026-08-11T12:19:55Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-08-10T21:40:14.130963Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Aug 10, 2026 · 17:40 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return slipped 0.34 percentage points to -3.64% while the latest capture was nearly flat at +0.14% on 0.55x participation and 0.29% above VWAP. The EMA stack remains weak, with a 2.05-point sector deficit and neutral flow, so this is limited repair rather than a restored early thesis.",
"price": 14.0,
"pct": -3.98,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.98,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.98,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.45,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.00 · -3.98% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $14.01 (+0.08% vs regular close) · Aug 10, 2026 · 17:28 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 14.01,
"ext_pct": 0.08,
"as_of": "2026-08-10T21:28:24Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-08-10T19:39:03.333749Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Aug 10, 2026 · 15:39 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return improved 1.16 percentage points while the latest capture gained 0.61% on 0.46x participation and held 0.82% above VWAP. The nearly flat-to-lower EMA structure, a 1.32-point sector lag and neutral flow keep this a limited repair rather than a restored early thesis.",
"price": 14.065,
"pct": -3.64,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.53,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.53,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.44,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.06 · -3.53% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-08-10T14:56:52.328235Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Aug 10, 2026 · 10:56 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return fell 0.68 percentage points to -4.12% as the latest capture slipped 0.89% on 0.13x participation. Price remains 0.18% above VWAP, but the nearly flat-to-lower EMA structure, a 2.99-point sector lag and neutral flow keep this a limited repair rather than a restored early thesis.",
"price": 13.855,
"pct": -4.8,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.97,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.97,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.85,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.86 · -4.97% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-08-10T12:41:32.897631Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Aug 10, 2026 · 08:41 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return recovered to -4.12% as the latest capture rose 1.38% on 0.48x participation. The nearly flat EMA structure, distribution and a 2.37-point sector lag keep the move a limited repair rather than a restored early thesis, with VWAP evidence unavailable.",
"price": 13.98,
"pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.98 · -4.12% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $14.01 (+0.19% vs regular close) · Aug 10, 2026 · 08:27 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 14.01,
"ext_pct": 0.19,
"as_of": "2026-08-10T12:27:32Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-08-07T21:39:36.059619Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Aug 7, 2026 · 17:39 NYSE",
"text": "F recovered 0.34 percentage points to -4.12% as the latest capture rose 1.38% on 0.47x participation. The nearly flat EMA structure, distribution and a 2.37-point sector lag keep the move a limited repair rather than a restored early thesis, with VWAP evidence unavailable.",
"price": 13.98,
"pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.48,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.98 · -4.12% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $14.00 (+0.14% vs regular close) · Aug 7, 2026 · 17:26 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 14.0,
"ext_pct": 0.14,
"as_of": "2026-08-07T21:26:16Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-08-07T14:56:09.601989Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Aug 7, 2026 · 10:56 NYSE",
"text": "F recovered 0.96 percentage points in tracked return to -4.46% as the latest capture rose 0.87% on 0.11x participation. The price is 0.51% above VWAP, but the nearly flat EMA sequence, distribution and a 3.05-point sector lag make this a limited repair rather than a restored early thesis.",
"price": 13.91,
"pct": -4.46,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.6,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.6,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.82,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.91 · -4.60% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-08-07T12:37:46.060197Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Aug 7, 2026 · 08:37 NYSE",
"text": "F's latest capture fell 2.41% on 0.83x participation, and the EMA sequence has flattened as distribution replaces the earlier constructive flow. The stock retains only a 0.25-point sector edge, so the early thesis remains materially weakened; unavailable VWAP evidence provides no confirmation of repair.",
"price": 13.79,
"pct": -5.42,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.42,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.42,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.79 · -5.42% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $13.83 (+0.29% vs regular close) · Aug 7, 2026 · 08:21 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 13.83,
"ext_pct": 0.29,
"as_of": "2026-08-07T12:21:32Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-08-06T22:06:50.259907Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Aug 6, 2026 · 18:06 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return fell 2.33 percentage points to -5.42%, while the current capture dropped 2.41% on 0.83x participation. The EMA sequence is nearly flat, distribution is present and the stock has only a 0.25-point sector edge; without a VWAP capture or renewed demand, the early thesis remains materially weakened.",
"price": 13.79,
"pct": -5.42,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.42,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.42,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.33,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$13.79 · -5.42% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $13.81 (+0.14% vs regular close) · Aug 6, 2026 · 17:49 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 13.81,
"ext_pct": 0.14,
"as_of": "2026-08-06T21:49:46Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-08-06T15:07:48.903111Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Aug 6, 2026 · 11:07 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return is unchanged at -3.09% as the latest capture fell 0.77% on 0.56x participation. The EMA sequence remains upward and the stock retains a modest 1.77-point sector edge, but neutral accumulation, unavailable VWAP evidence and weak demand show the early thesis remains materially weakened.",
"price": 14.13,
"pct": -3.09,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.09,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.09,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.13 · -3.09% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-08-06T12:42:23.186398Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Aug 6, 2026 · 08:42 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return slipped 0.93 points to -3.09% as the latest capture fell 0.77% on 0.56x participation. The EMA sequence remains upward and the stock retains a modest 1.77-point edge versus its sector, but neutral accumulation, absent current VWAP evidence and weak demand show the early thesis remains materially weakened.",
"price": 14.13,
"pct": -3.09,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.09,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.09,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.13 · -3.09% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $14.18 (+0.35% vs regular close) · Aug 5, 2026 · 19:59 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 14.18,
"ext_pct": 0.35,
"as_of": "2026-08-05T23:59:27Z",
"persisted": true
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-08-05T21:40:45.838314Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Aug 5, 2026 · 17:40 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return slipped 0.93 percentage points to -3.09% as the latest capture fell 0.77% on 0.56x participation. The EMA sequence remains upward and the stock retains a modest 1.77-point edge versus its sector, but neutral accumulation, absent current VWAP evidence and weak demand show the early thesis remains materially weakened.",
"price": 14.13,
"pct": -3.09,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.09,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.09,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.83,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.13 · -3.09% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $14.16 (+0.21% vs regular close) · Aug 5, 2026 · 17:27 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 14.16,
"ext_pct": 0.21,
"as_of": "2026-08-05T21:27:02Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-08-05T14:53:48.631539Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Aug 5, 2026 · 10:53 NYSE",
"text": "F's tracked return improved 0.17 points while the latest capture was nearly flat at $14.25, up 0.07% and 0.84% below VWAP. The rising EMA sequence and modest relative advantage keep the early thesis open, but 0.12x participation and neutral accumulation show that continuation remains materially weakened.",
"price": 14.25,
"pct": -2.16,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.26,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.26,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.07,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.25 · -2.26% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-08-05T12:37:38.492998Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Aug 5, 2026 · 08:37 NYSE",
"text": "F held its -2.33% tracked return while the latest capture fell 1.32% to $14.24 on 0.81x participation. The rising EMA sequence and 4.24-point sector-relative advantage keep the early thesis open, yet the negative session and neutral flow show that continuation remains materially weakened.",
"price": 14.24,
"pct": -2.33,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.33,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.33,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.24 · -2.33% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $14.27 (+0.28% vs regular close) · Aug 5, 2026 · 08:21 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 14.27,
"ext_pct": 0.28,
"as_of": "2026-08-05T12:21:07Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-08-04T21:42:39.781581Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Aug 4, 2026 · 17:42 NYSE",
"text": "F recovered 1.10 points in tracked return to -2.33%, but the latest capture was $14.24, down 1.32% on 0.81x participation. The rising EMA sequence and modest 4.24-point sector-relative advantage keep the early thesis open, yet the negative session and limited demand show that continuation remains materially weakened.",
"price": 14.24,
"pct": -2.33,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.33,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.33,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.41,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.24 · -2.33% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $14.23 (-0.08% vs regular close) · Aug 4, 2026 · 17:29 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 14.23,
"ext_pct": -0.08,
"as_of": "2026-08-04T21:29:16Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-08-04T14:56:00.304354Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Aug 4, 2026 · 10:56 NYSE",
"text": "F lost 2.40 points since the previous update to a -3.43% tracked return; the $14.035 capture is down 2.74%, 0.53% below VWAP and on only 0.23x participation. The EMA sequence is still rising and relative performance remains modestly positive, but the early continuation thesis is materially weakened without renewed demand.",
"price": 14.035,
"pct": -3.43,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.74,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.74,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.71,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.04 · -3.74% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-a7a99e1354dfe9f56c3e73e6290448455c8cdcc4832d74b6be3b1750e55a9ebf",
"price_as_of": null,
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{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-08-04T12:39:15.440491Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Aug 4, 2026 · 08:39 NYSE",
"text": "F remains at a -1.03% tracked return on day 2, with the latest quote at $14.43, down 1.70% on 0.52x volume. The EMA structure is still rising and the stock retains positive 20-day relative performance, but the first-day reversal and weak participation materially weaken the early continuation thesis.",
"price": 14.43,
"pct": -1.03,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.03,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.03,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.43 · -1.03% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $14.53 (+0.62% vs regular close) · Aug 4, 2026 · 08:24 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 14.53,
"ext_pct": 0.62,
"as_of": "2026-08-04T12:24:33Z",
"persisted": false
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"relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": null,
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{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-08-03T21:31:53.472134Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Aug 3, 2026 · 17:31 NYSE",
"text": "F tracked return slipped 0.34 points to -0.69%; the latest capture is $14.43, down 1.70% on 0.52x volume. Despite the still-rising EMA structure, the first-day reversal and weak participation materially weaken the early continuation thesis, with the tape now below its supporting reference.",
"price": 14.43,
"pct": -1.03,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.03,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.03,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.34,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.43 · -1.03% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $14.45 (+0.14% vs regular close) · Aug 3, 2026 · 17:26 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 14.45,
"ext_pct": 0.14,
"as_of": "2026-08-03T21:26:18Z",
"persisted": false
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-08-03T19:42:45.991019Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Aug 3, 2026 · 15:42 NYSE",
"text": "F gave back 2.78 percentage points, moving from +2.09% to -0.69% on its first tracked day. The current session is down 1.36% on 0.43x relative volume and price is below VWAP, so the early continuation thesis has materially weakened despite the still-rising EMA structure.",
"price": 14.48,
"pct": -0.69,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.69,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.69,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.56,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.48 · -0.69% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
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"relevant": false,
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{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-08-03T14:53:15.390294Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Aug 3, 2026 · 10:53 NYSE",
"text": "F advanced 1.40 points to +2.09% on its first tracked day, with the current session up 1.18% on only 0.11x relative volume. The rising EMA structure keeps the early thesis near its reference area, but price below VWAP and light participation leave continuation unconfirmed.",
"price": 14.8527,
"pct": 2.09,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 1.87,
"return_vs_base_pct": 1.87,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.18,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.85 · +1.87% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-08-03T12:37:39.025547Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Aug 3, 2026 · 08:37 NYSE",
"text": "F now shows a +0.69% first-day tracked return, despite a current-session decline of 1.21% on 0.72x relative volume. The rising EMA structure and RSI at 63.61 keep the early thesis near its reference area, but subdued participation leaves follow-through unconfirmed.",
"price": 14.68,
"pct": 0.69,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 0.69,
"return_vs_base_pct": 0.69,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.68 · +0.69% from $14.58 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $14.77 (+0.59% vs regular close) · Aug 3, 2026 · 08:20 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 14.77,
"ext_pct": 0.59,
"as_of": "2026-08-03T12:20:39Z",
"persisted": false
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"relevant": false,
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{
"day": 0,
"timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:29:57.405311Z",
"date": "Session 0 · Aug 2, 2026 · 07:29 NYSE",
"text": "F is at a first tracked reading with price at $14.68, down 1.21% in the current session on 0.72x relative volume. The rising EMA structure and RSI at 63.61 keep the early thesis near its reference area, but no cumulative baseline or follow-through confirmation is available yet.",
"price": 14.68,
"pct": null,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 0.69,
"return_vs_base_pct": 0.69,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.69,
"session_day": 0,
"reference_price": 14.58,
"reference_text": "$14.68",
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{
"label": "+1 sessions",
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"return": -1.03,
"reference_text": "-1.03% from $14.58 base",
"price": 14.43,
"updated": "Aug 3, 2026 · 17:33 NYSE",
"mfe": 3.22,
"mae": -1.03
},
{
"label": "+5 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": -4.12,
"reference_text": "-4.12% from $14.58 base",
"price": 13.98,
"updated": "Aug 7, 2026 · 17:32 NYSE",
"mfe": 3.29,
"mae": -5.69
},
{
"label": "+10 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": -1.44,
"reference_text": "-1.44% from $14.58 base",
"price": 14.37,
"updated": "Aug 14, 2026 · 17:05 NYSE",
"mfe": 3.29,
"mae": -5.69
},
{
"label": "+15 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": -1.17,
"reference_text": "-1.17% from $14.58 base",
"price": 14.41,
"updated": "Aug 21, 2026 · 17:05 NYSE",
"mfe": 3.29,
"mae": -5.69
}
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