SMCI episode 20260812_SMCI_MIDDAY
Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.
{
"schema_version": "tryding-agent-episode.v1",
"episode_id": "20260812_SMCI_MIDDAY",
"episode_url": "https://trydingday.com/data/agents/v1/episodes/20260812_SMCI_MIDDAY.html",
"public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/coverage/smci/2026-08-12/midday/",
"published_at": "2026-08-12T17:48:45.426346Z",
"updated_at": "2026-09-02T22:18:02.518895Z",
"lifecycle": {
"tracking_status": "closed",
"active_for_tracking": false,
"stage": "closed"
},
"instrument": {
"type": "equity",
"symbol": "SMCI",
"exchange": "NASDAQGS",
"name": "Super Micro Computer, Inc."
},
"technical_reference": {
"status": "ok",
"reference_price": 35.78,
"model_downside_reference": 32.16,
"model_upside_scenario_1": 39.4,
"model_upside_scenario_2": 43.01,
"atr_14": 2.41,
"method": "reference_price_plus_minus_atr14"
},
"public_content": {
"date": "August 12, 2026",
"generated_at": "2026-08-12T17:48:45.426346Z",
"original_published_at": null,
"session_tag": "midday",
"label": "Market coverage",
"try_label": "Raw Try",
"public_status": "Raw Try",
"why_today": "The comparison favored SMCI over stronger-looking but less balanced alternatives. Its sealed trajectory improved from 13.12% to 17.99% as volume rose, and the stock remained above the supplied VWAP near the top of its range. The move is extended, however, and the evidence still leaves open whether the reaction can hold after the initial event premium fades. NBIS carried greater raw momentum, while CAVA, HRB, DFTX and CRWV each offered credible but more compromised combinations of structure, provenance or risk.",
"entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: SMCI is a concrete daily research case: the company-linked forecast narrative coincides with an improving tape, rising participation and supportive technology context. Confirmation is incomplete because the move is extended and the packet still carries working-capital and margin objections.",
"reference_price": 35.78,
"scanner": {
"price": 35.78,
"reference": 35.78,
"score": 5,
"score_version": "v0_legacy_reconstructed",
"change": 13.23,
"volume": 76788730,
"average_volume": 53923498,
"volume_ratio": 1.42,
"rsi": 64.03,
"ema_trend": "31.68 > 30.25 > 30.51",
"position_52w": 63.37,
"atr_14": 2.41,
"vwap": 35.93,
"vwap_state": "above",
"vwap_distance_pct": -0.42,
"vwap_reading": {
"price": 35.93,
"state": "above",
"distance_pct": -0.42
},
"range_position": 0.981,
"gap_pct": 0.0,
"relative_strength": {
"excess_pct": 12.33,
"index": "QQQ",
"index_chg_pct": 0.9,
"status": "tailwind"
},
"volume_percentile": {
"median_vol": 40892200,
"percentile": 85.7,
"status": "elevated",
"today_vol": 76788730
},
"extension": {
"atr": 2.41,
"dist_atr": 2.29,
"ema_ref": 30.25,
"status": "healthy"
},
"atr_move_signal": {
"atr_pct": 6.74,
"status": "normal",
"z": 1.96
},
"sector_breadth": {
"chg_pct": 1.62,
"etf": "XLK",
"status": "green"
},
"sentiment": null,
"sentiment_score": null,
"earnings_warning": {
"days_away": null,
"earnings_date": null,
"has_earnings_soon": false,
"status": "clear"
},
"options_snapshot": null,
"extended_hours": {
"ext_pct": null,
"market_state": "REGULAR",
"phase": "regular",
"post_market_pct": null,
"pre_market_pct": null,
"status": "none"
},
"coiled_spring": {
"count": 1,
"idio_strength": false,
"near_ema": true,
"quiet_day": false,
"status": "none",
"trend_stacked": false
},
"short_pct_float": 18.45,
"days_to_cover": 2.06,
"catalyst": "Dell Stock Rises on AI Boom. Super Micro Forecast Is the Catalyst",
"sector": "Technology",
"exchange": "NasdaqGS",
"sec_signal": "NO_RECENT_FORM4_SIGNAL"
},
"levels": {
"reference": 35.78,
"downside": 32.16,
"upside_1": 39.4,
"upside_2": 43.01
},
"review": {
"score": 5,
"status": "Majority with dissent",
"summary": "The panel selected SMCI because its company-linked information, improving trajectory and current participation converged more cleanly than the alternatives. The thesis remains conditional because the move is extended, the broader market breadth cut is absent and one-session confirmation is insufficient.",
"views": [
{
"name": "Nate Brooks",
"role": "market structure and timing analyst",
"icon": "📈",
"view": "SMCI is the first tape here that earns a serious argument. The sealed path moved from +13.12% to +17.99%, volume rose from about 80.8 million to 110.8 million, and the intraday read stayed above a 35.93 VWAP near the top of the range. That is participation, not just a headline print.",
"reasoning": "The available SMCI chart views support that middle ground. The five-day view shows the gap and a firm finish; the six-month and weekly views show recovery inside a volatile range, not a clean uninterrupted trend. Raw Try is the honest label."
},
{
"name": "Marcus Feld",
"role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
"icon": "🦊",
"view": "And the story is not merely AI confetti. The packet ties the move to a company-linked forecast catalyst, matched reporting and three primary SEC records. That gives the price action something specific to explain.",
"reasoning": "That leaves SMCI ahead of NBIS on convergence, not on raw percentage gain. NBIS may keep running; SMCI simply has the cleaner combination of issuer evidence and improving tape. I concede the stronger confirmation bar is not met."
},
{
"name": "Elena Vartanyan",
"role": "independent statistical auditor",
"icon": "🎯",
"view": "It gives it a story. It does not give it durability. The move is already 2.29 ATR from the EMA reference, and a single session with 1.42x three-month volume is still a single session. The market has a long history of rewarding a headline before sending the invoice.",
"reasoning": "Then the committee has a researchable thesis with a real falsifier, but not a settled continuation claim. SMCI clears the Raw Try boundary; the persistent objections keep confidence below a full Try of the Day."
},
{
"name": "Priya Nandakumar",
"role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
"icon": "🛡️",
"view": "The invoice is the point. SMCI's liquidity is better than the small names, but the supplied spread observation is wide enough to deserve caution and the working-capital objection is already in the news packet. If the move loses VWAP while participation fades, the thesis is not surviving.",
"reasoning": "Agreed on the label. The next check is simple and observable: hold the supplied VWAP area while participation remains engaged. A retreat through that level, especially with volume drying up, turns the forecast story into a stale explanation."
},
{
"name": "Kenji Osei",
"role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
"icon": "🧠",
"view": "Loudness is not provenance. NBIS has a same-day event state, high short interest and no chart view in the neutral archive. That absence is not negative evidence, but it is a confidence boundary. SMCI's information state is matched and its primary records are reproducible.",
"reasoning": "One more limit: complete market breadth was not captured. The sector ETF context is useful, but it is not breadth. I will not let a green XLK reading pretend to certify the whole market."
}
],
"conviction": {
"status_phrase": "majority-with-dissent",
"basis": "Conviction rests on SMCI's improving trajectory, participation, VWAP position and company-linked information. The counter-case remains credible because NBIS had stronger raw momentum and CAVA, HRB, DFTX and CRWV each carried a distinct evidence advantage. Confidence is capped by extension, one-session durability, unresolved margin and working-capital concerns, and absent breadth.",
"risk": "SMCI is 2.29 ATR from its EMA reference. The evidence is still dominated by one current session.",
"resolution_pct": 68.0,
"counter_case_pct": 22.0,
"unresolved_pct": 10.0
},
"context_roundtable": {
"mode": "coffee",
"status": "partial",
"consulted_voice_ids": [
"elena",
"marcus",
"kenji",
"priya",
"nate"
],
"summary": "The supplied day-first context described a split session: muted Dow and S&P futures ahead of CPI, firmer Nasdaq tone, elevated oil and geopolitical risk, and unusually low S&P 500 dividend yield. The fresh public-web reopening was unavailable, so the contextual read remains partial rather than a complete live-news confirmation.",
"long_read": "The common market cut framed the session as selective rather than uniformly risk-on: Dow and S&P futures were muted ahead of CPI while the Nasdaq was firmer ([Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-wednesday-august-12-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-cpi-report-091555133.html)). Oil was approaching a two-week high while the supplied report cited a closed Hormuz and continuing Houthi attacks ([InvestorsHub](https://investorshub.advfn.com/market-news/article/34083/oil-prices-approach-two-week-high-as-hormuz-stays-closed-and-houthi-attacks-persist)). A separate market note placed the S&P 500 dividend yield near 1%, reinforcing the tension between strong index pricing and limited income ([Moneywise](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/p-500-dividend-yield-hits-103000153.html)). Together, those forces describe a day where leadership could be strong without proving broad participation. The fresh public-web check could not be reopened, so the room preserved the supplied cut and kept the context warning visible.",
"transcript": [
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "The session opened with muted Dow and S&P futures while the Nasdaq was firmer ahead of CPI. That is a split tape, not a clean risk-on day.",
"source_urls": [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-wednesday-august-12-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-cpi-report-091555133.html"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "And the cut gives us headlines, not a complete participation map. I am not going to turn a few index moves into a breadth conclusion."
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "Exactly. A firm Nasdaq can coexist with a very selective session. The tape may look healthy from the front row while the rest of the theater is empty.",
"source_urls": [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-wednesday-august-12-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-cpi-report-091555133.html"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "The oil headline is not background decoration. Oil near a two-week high with Hormuz closed and Houthi attacks continuing adds a real geopolitical premium to the day.",
"source_urls": [
"https://investorshub.advfn.com/market-news/article/34083/oil-prices-approach-two-week-high-as-hormuz-stays-closed-and-houthi-attacks-persist"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "It also shortens the patience window. Calm futures do not make an oil shock disappear; they just make the risk easier to ignore until it is not."
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "The near-1% S&P dividend yield adds another tension: expensive index pricing and little income cushion. That is a positioning clue, not proof of a bubble.",
"source_urls": [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/p-500-dividend-yield-hits-103000153.html"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "The supplied cut also mixes market reporting with opinion-heavy long-hold and bubble-warning pieces. I would keep the market facts and throw the grand historical slogans in the bin.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/12/if-40-buy-vanguard-etf-warren-buffett-hold-forever",
"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/12/the-stock-market-is-flashing-the-same-warning-sign"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "That is the right separation. The six-item context cut is captured and confirmed in its own lane, but source labels do not magically create live breadth or flow data."
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "So the day reads as selective growth leadership under a macro and oil overlay. Selective is doing a lot of work in that sentence.",
"source_urls": [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-wednesday-august-12-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-cpi-report-091555133.html",
"https://investorshub.advfn.com/market-news/article/34083/oil-prices-approach-two-week-high-as-hormuz-stays-closed-and-houthi-attacks-persist"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "Selective leadership is also fragile leadership when CPI and geopolitics are sharing the same calendar. The practical risk is a fast change in correlation, not necessarily a slow change in the story."
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "Fair. The cut does not establish that the bid is broad, and I will not pretend the Nasdaq headline proves it. The contradiction is the fact worth keeping."
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "And missing breadth stays a confidence boundary, not bearish evidence. We can say the regime is hard to read without pretending the data said more than it did."
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "The fresh public check could not be reopened, so the honest output is partial context with only the supplied public URLs retained. No browser trail, no invented update."
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "Then the day is legible as a tension: CPI sensitivity, oil risk, expensive index pricing and selective leadership. That is enough context, but not enough for a blanket market conclusion.",
"source_urls": [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-wednesday-august-12-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-cpi-report-091555133.html",
"https://investorshub.advfn.com/market-news/article/34083/oil-prices-approach-two-week-high-as-hormuz-stays-closed-and-houthi-attacks-persist",
"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/p-500-dividend-yield-hits-103000153.html"
]
}
],
"source_urls": [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-wednesday-august-12-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-cpi-report-091555133.html",
"https://investorshub.advfn.com/market-news/article/34083/oil-prices-approach-two-week-high-as-hormuz-stays-closed-and-houthi-attacks-persist",
"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/p-500-dividend-yield-hits-103000153.html",
"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/12/if-40-buy-vanguard-etf-warren-buffett-hold-forever",
"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/12/the-stock-market-is-flashing-the-same-warning-sign"
]
},
"context_roundtable_sources": [
{
"event_id": "mi_evt_25936ace852fc6481793973c",
"headline": "Stock market today: Dow and S&P 500 futures muted ahead of CPI data, Nasdaq rises",
"url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-wednesday-august-12-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-cpi-report-091555133.html",
"publisher": "Yahoo Finance",
"source_quality": "market_context",
"public_safe": true,
"published_at": "2026-08-12T09:15:55Z",
"available_at": "2026-08-12T10:40:09.314392+00:00"
},
{
"event_id": "mi_evt_b929f4cded4de364d1fa5083",
"headline": "S&P 500 dividend yield hits record low near 1% and it has some retirees rethinking their strategies",
"url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/p-500-dividend-yield-hits-103000153.html",
"publisher": "Moneywise",
"source_quality": "market_context",
"public_safe": true,
"published_at": "2026-08-12T10:30:00Z",
"available_at": "2026-08-12T10:40:09.314392+00:00"
},
{
"event_id": "mi_evt_7258cbcb5896105565cd3d90",
"headline": "Oil prices approach two-week high as Hormuz stays closed and Houthi attacks persist",
"url": "https://investorshub.advfn.com/market-news/article/34083/oil-prices-approach-two-week-high-as-hormuz-stays-closed-and-houthi-attacks-persist",
"publisher": "InvestorsHub",
"source_quality": "market_context",
"public_safe": true,
"published_at": "2026-08-12T09:16:19Z",
"available_at": "2026-08-12T10:40:09.314392+00:00"
},
{
"event_id": "mi_evt_97c1332c82ce10f7e4f6cc9e",
"headline": "If I Were in My 40s, I'd Buy This Vanguard ETF Warren Buffett Recommended and Hold It Forever",
"url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/12/if-40-buy-vanguard-etf-warren-buffett-hold-forever",
"publisher": "Motley Fool",
"source_quality": "market_context",
"public_safe": true,
"published_at": "2026-08-12T09:17:00Z",
"available_at": "2026-08-12T10:40:09.314392+00:00"
},
{
"event_id": "mi_evt_7b73dea0134e28c16f5df4b0",
"headline": "The Stock Market Is Flashing the Same Warning Signal That It Did Before the Dot-Com Bubble. Here's What History Says Comes Next.",
"url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/12/the-stock-market-is-flashing-the-same-warning-sign",
"publisher": "Motley Fool",
"source_quality": "market_context",
"public_safe": true,
"published_at": "2026-08-12T09:50:00Z",
"available_at": "2026-08-12T10:40:09.314392+00:00"
}
]
},
"updates": [
{
"day": 15,
"timestamp": "2026-09-02T22:18:02.518895Z",
"date": "Session 15 · Sep 2, 2026 · 18:18 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's 15-session tracking closes at -0.76% from the $35.78 reference. The fresh regular capture was $37.00, up 0.79% on the session and 0.81% versus the prior regular close on 0.58x participation; the post-market quote was $36.68, down 0.86%. The path reached +13.48% before a maximum adverse excursion of -8.57%, and the final regular rebound does not restore the unproven durability claim. The original Raw Try had a filing-backed company forecast and supportive technology-relative performance, but current RSI, EMA and 52-week fields were unavailable, the episode-specific X handoff was empty, and no further tracking is being performed.",
"price": 36.23,
"pct": -2.83,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 1.26,
"return_vs_base_pct": 1.26,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.34,
"session_day": 15,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$36.23 · +1.26% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": true,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-607f1e15399a5c36fbecd8aae24ea8237161d3f1943126704e6f4f7c3d354a6c",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-12T21:53:23Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-01T22:11:26.006049Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Sep 1, 2026 · 18:11 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return is unchanged at -1.54%, while the latest capture slipped 1.53% to $36.71. Price remains 0.88% above VWAP in the upper part of its range, but participation is only 0.46x average and no confirmed structure has formed; the filing-backed catalyst remains relevant, while durable demand and the earlier recovery claim are still unconfirmed.",
"price": 36.71,
"pct": -1.54,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.6,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.6,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.5,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$36.71 · +2.60% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $36.71 (0.00% vs regular close) · Sep 1, 2026 · 17:48 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 36.71,
"ext_pct": 0.0,
"as_of": "2026-09-01T21:48:31Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-01T21:48:31Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-01T21:05:53.476562Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Sep 1, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return improved 2.68 points from the last public update to -1.06%. The current capture is down 1.05% on the session but remains 1.38% above VWAP in the upper part of its range; participation is only 0.34x average and no confirmed structure is present, so the filing-backed catalyst remains relevant while demand durability is still unconfirmed.",
"price": 36.89,
"pct": -1.54,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 3.1,
"return_vs_base_pct": 3.1,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.17,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$36.89 · +3.10% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-01T19:21:29.772075Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-01T14:37:33.205070Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Sep 1, 2026 · 10:37 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return fell 3.73 points from the previous public update to -3.74%, while the current capture dropped 4.09% and slipped 0.93% below VWAP near the bottom of its range on only 0.11x average volume. The filing-backed catalyst still explains why the earlier move mattered, but today's demand failure weakens the immediate durability claim; longer relative strength keeps the case alive without confirming it.",
"price": 35.755,
"pct": -3.74,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.07,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.07,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -4.26,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$35.76 · -0.07% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": true,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-3c664812a8a1db776fcc7767feb166ed1819ed88f1b3a35d63bff0d898aee6d2",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-01T14:13:30.142689Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-08-31T22:09:53.467809Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Aug 31, 2026 · 18:09 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI slipped 0.21 points to -0.01% despite holding 0.28% above VWAP near the top of its range; volume improved to 0.40x average and the technology backdrop remains supportive. The tape is resilient, but the absence of confirmed structure and unresolved working-capital and margin concerns still withhold confirmation.",
"price": 37.28,
"pct": -0.01,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 4.19,
"return_vs_base_pct": 4.19,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.06,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.28 · +4.19% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-31T21:40:41Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-08-31T20:01:06.519465Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Aug 31, 2026 · 16:01 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI has edged back to +0.20% from flat, with price holding 0.22% above VWAP near the top of the range. Technology remains supportive and the EMA structure is healthy, but participation is only 0.29x average volume and no confirmed structure has formed, so the company-linked catalyst still needs durable follow-through.",
"price": 37.3,
"pct": 0.2,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 4.25,
"return_vs_base_pct": 4.25,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.11,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.30 · +4.25% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-08-31T19:21:03.615633Z",
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},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-08-31T15:00:48.384988Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Aug 31, 2026 · 11:00 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI is back at 0.00% after a 0.70% rise to 37.34 and a move above VWAP, but volume is only 0.11x average. The positive technology context remains, yet the company-linked event still lacks a confirmed follow-through structure.",
"price": 37.34,
"pct": 0.0,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 4.36,
"return_vs_base_pct": 4.36,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.73,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.34 · +4.36% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-31T14:06:24.388513Z",
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},
{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-08-29T05:57:24.224849Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Aug 29, 2026 · 01:57 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI tracked result slipped 2.07 points to -0.55% as the current capture fell 3.59% to 37.08 on 0.50x average volume. Technology-relative performance remains strong over 20 sessions and the EMA stack is positive, but no confirmed structure and neutral accumulation leave the company-linked event premium without renewed follow-through.",
"price": 37.08,
"pct": -0.55,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 3.63,
"return_vs_base_pct": 3.63,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.21,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.08 · +3.63% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-29T05:01:43.976820Z",
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},
{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-08-28T15:18:31.879134Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Aug 28, 2026 · 11:18 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked result slipped 1.63 points to +1.52% as the capture fell 1.53% to 37.87, now 0.97% below VWAP on 0.09x volume near the bottom of its range. Technology-relative strength and the upward EMA stack keep the company-linked case specific, but decelerating participation and no confirmed structure leave the event premium under renewed durability pressure.",
"price": 37.87,
"pct": 1.52,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 5.84,
"return_vs_base_pct": 5.84,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.65,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.87 · +5.84% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-28T14:07:04.955352Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-08-27T21:52:19.816380Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Aug 27, 2026 · 17:52 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked result improved 0.64 points to +3.15% as price rose 2.86% to 38.46 and edged 0.28% above VWAP. Technology-relative strength and an ordered EMA trend support the event-repricing case, but 0.70x average volume and no confirmed structure leave the premium's durability unproven.",
"price": 38.46,
"pct": 3.15,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 7.49,
"return_vs_base_pct": 7.49,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.62,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$38.46 · +7.49% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $38.27 (-0.49% vs regular close) · Aug 27, 2026 · 17:26 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 38.27,
"ext_pct": -0.49,
"as_of": "2026-08-27T21:26:09Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-27T21:26:09Z",
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},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-08-27T20:00:49.397071Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Aug 27, 2026 · 16:00 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked result slipped 0.44 points to +2.51%, and the current capture is up 2.27% at 38.24 but remains 0.40% below VWAP. Technology is supportive, yet 0.57 times average volume with decelerating flow leaves the event premium testing durability rather than confirming it.",
"price": 38.2398,
"pct": 2.51,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 6.87,
"return_vs_base_pct": 6.87,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.16,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$38.24 · +6.87% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-27T19:33:09.484369Z",
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},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-08-27T14:51:52.615689Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Aug 27, 2026 · 10:51 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked result improved 2.67 points to +2.95%, while today's capture rose 2.11% but remained below VWAP at 38.57 with no confirmed structure. Technology-relative strength keeps the context supportive; the tape still tests whether the event premium can hold.",
"price": 38.18,
"pct": 2.95,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 6.71,
"return_vs_base_pct": 6.71,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.21,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$38.18 · +6.71% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-27T14:06:46.334429Z",
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-08-26T21:43:29.112628Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Aug 26, 2026 · 17:43 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked result fell 0.28 points to +0.28% as the latest capture dropped 2.78% and moved 0.84% below VWAP in the lower fifth of its range. Technology remains supportive over 20 sessions, but 0.55 times average participation, neutral flow and no confirmed structure turn the forecast into a durability test rather than confirmation.",
"price": 37.39,
"pct": 0.28,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 4.5,
"return_vs_base_pct": 4.5,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.13,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.39 · +4.50% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $38.18 (+2.10% vs regular close) · Aug 26, 2026 · 17:26 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 38.18,
"ext_pct": 2.1,
"as_of": "2026-08-26T21:26:04Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-26T21:26:04Z",
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-08-26T19:40:00Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Aug 26, 2026 · 15:40 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI gave back 0.75 points to a tracked result of +0.56% as the latest capture fell 2.67% and price sat below VWAP in the lower fifth of its range on 0.70 times average participation. Technology remains supportive, but fading demand makes this a durability test for the forecast rather than confirmation.",
"price": 37.435,
"pct": 0.56,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 4.63,
"return_vs_base_pct": 4.63,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.77,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.44 · +4.63% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-26T19:21:32.845331Z",
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-08-26T14:44:42.125022Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Aug 26, 2026 · 10:44 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI gave back 1.84 percentage points, leaving the tracked result at +1.31%, while the current capture fell 1.01% but held 0.29% above VWAP near the top of the range. Technology remains strongly supportive at 38.36 points of excess performance over 20 sessions, yet 0.11 times average volume and fading flow make this a durability test for the forecast, not confirmation.",
"price": 38.07,
"pct": 1.31,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 6.4,
"return_vs_base_pct": 6.4,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.09,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$38.07 · +6.40% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-26T14:08:15.387867Z",
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},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-08-25T21:57:05.354472Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Aug 25, 2026 · 17:57 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI added 0.65 points to its tracked result as the current capture gained 9.35% and held 1.42% above VWAP near the top of the range. The company-linked forecast still explains the move and Technology remains strongly supportive, but participation is only 0.81 times average with a 1.51-ATR extension, so this is a durability test rather than confirmation.",
"price": 38.46,
"pct": 3.15,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 7.49,
"return_vs_base_pct": 7.49,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.34,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$38.46 · +7.49% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-25T21:26:26Z",
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},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-08-25T19:59:42.309465Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Aug 25, 2026 · 15:59 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI tracked result recovered 7.28 points to +1.61% after the current capture gained 9.01%, with price 1.13% above the session average near the top of its range. The company-linked forecast still explains the move, but participation is only 0.63 times average, flow is decelerating and margin and working-capital concerns remain, making this a durability test rather than confirmation.",
"price": 38.34,
"pct": 2.5,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 7.15,
"return_vs_base_pct": 7.15,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.82,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$38.34 · +7.15% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-25T19:21:23.301842Z",
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},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-08-25T14:45:48.038391Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Aug 25, 2026 · 10:45 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked result has recovered 7.28 points to +1.61% after an 8.17% session gain, with price 1.72% above the session average near the top of its range. The company-linked forecast still gives the move a specific explanation, but very light participation, a 1.39-ATR extension and unresolved margin and working-capital concerns make this a renewed test of durability, not confirmation.",
"price": 38.045,
"pct": 1.61,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 6.33,
"return_vs_base_pct": 6.33,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 8.03,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$38.05 · +6.33% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-1de1180069c3ecacfc9087420d20787f9f3df98ad53823e50cbb44502adfe8d7",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-25T14:06:10.747860Z",
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},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-08-24T20:51:41.010017Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Aug 24, 2026 · 16:51 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked result improved 1.80 points to -5.67% although the current capture fell 5.56% and held only 0.09% above the session average on 0.66x volume. The broader recovery and technology-relative lead remain visible, but fading participation and a barely held reference leave the repair unconfirmed.",
"price": 35.17,
"pct": -5.67,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.7,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.7,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.72,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$35.17 · -1.70% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-24T20:04:22Z",
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},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-08-24T14:36:45.642849Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Aug 24, 2026 · 10:36 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI tracked result fell 5.86 points since the last panel note to -7.47%. The current capture dropped 8.16% on 0.19x volume and finished 2.62% below the session average near the lower range; longer recovery and an 11.95-point technology lead remain visible, but the repair reference has failed.",
"price": 34.2,
"pct": -7.47,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.42,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.42,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -8.5,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$34.20 · -4.42% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-ef9453ff391fa69581f2430cac4e44c39035b4937a333435c10df9ef269ce105",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-24T14:06:01.174012Z",
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{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-08-21T21:46:18.974981Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Aug 21, 2026 · 17:46 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's latest capture rose 2.03% and left the tracked result at +0.05%, with price 0.28% above the session average. The move remains above its technology context and participation improved to 0.61x the three-month average, supporting repair; RSI at 71.61 and the unresolved working-capital and margin objections still keep the recovery incomplete.",
"price": 37.24,
"pct": -0.12,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 4.08,
"return_vs_base_pct": 4.08,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.1,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.24 · +4.08% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $37.24 (0.00% vs regular close) · Aug 21, 2026 · 17:24 NASDAQGS"
},
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"phase": "post",
"price": 37.24,
"ext_pct": 0.0,
"as_of": "2026-08-21T21:24:16Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-08-21T19:45:19.383983Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Aug 21, 2026 · 15:45 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked result improved 1.08 points to +0.05% as price rose 1.93% and held 0.33% above the session average. Participation rose to 0.51% of the three-month average and was accelerating, which supports repair, but RSI at 71.55 and the unresolved working-capital and margin objections keep the recovery incomplete.",
"price": 37.205,
"pct": 0.05,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 3.98,
"return_vs_base_pct": 3.98,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.18,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.20 · +3.98% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-08-21T14:39:18.801767Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Aug 21, 2026 · 10:39 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked result improved 1.08 points to -1.03%; current price rose 1.75% but stayed 0.24% below the session average near the lower range on 0.14x decelerating volume. The 19.14-point technology excess keeps the company case alive, yet lost average-price support and event-premium risk leave recovery incomplete.",
"price": 37.14,
"pct": -1.03,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 3.8,
"return_vs_base_pct": 3.8,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.79,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.14 · +3.80% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-08-20T21:48:12.608442Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Aug 20, 2026 · 17:48 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked result eased 0.55 points to -2.11%; the current capture rose 0.16% but stayed 0.94% below the session average on 0.83x volume near the lower range. Technology outperformance of 14.38 points keeps the company-linked case alive, yet fading participation and an RSI of 70.88 leave the near-term recovery incomplete.",
"price": 36.5,
"pct": -2.11,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.01,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.01,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.39,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$36.50 · +2.01% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $36.58 (+0.22% vs regular close) · Aug 20, 2026 · 17:26 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 36.58,
"ext_pct": 0.22,
"as_of": "2026-08-20T21:26:10Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-08-20T19:26:57.703582Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Aug 20, 2026 · 15:26 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked result eased 0.21 percentage points to -1.56%; the current capture rose 0.16% but remained 0.57% below the session average traded price on 0.71x volume. Technology outperformance keeps the company-linked case alive, yet fading participation and a high RSI leave the near-term recovery incomplete.",
"price": 36.64,
"pct": -1.56,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.4,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.4,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.31,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$36.64 · +2.40% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
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"relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-08-20T15:22:10.199822Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Aug 20, 2026 · 11:22 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked result improved 0.54 points since the last public note to -1.35%; today's capture rose 0.46% but remained 1.82% below the session's average traded price, near the bottom of its range and on only 0.26x volume. Technology outperformance keeps the company-linked case alive, yet the extended move is losing immediate support and the margin and working-capital objections remain open.",
"price": 36.75,
"pct": -1.35,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.71,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.71,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.47,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$36.75 · +2.71% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
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"relevant": false,
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{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-08-19T21:49:24.711910Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Aug 19, 2026 · 17:49 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's latest capture fell 2.22% on 0.59x volume and moved 0.84% below the session's average traded price, leaving the tracked result at -1.89% on day 5. Rising averages and long-term technology outperformance keep the company-linked case alive, but the sector headwind, elevated RSI and fading participation show the extended move losing durability while margin and working-capital objections remain open.",
"price": 36.58,
"pct": -1.89,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.24,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.24,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.07,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$36.58 · +2.24% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-08-19T20:07:29.794178Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Aug 19, 2026 · 16:07 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's latest capture fell 2.29% on 0.54x volume and moved 0.85% below the session's average traded price. Rising averages and a large long-term technology advantage keep the company-linked case alive, but high RSI, sector headwind and fading participation show the extended move losing durability while margin and working-capital objections remain open.",
"price": 36.555,
"pct": -1.93,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.17,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.17,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.52,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$36.55 · +2.17% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-08-19T15:17:14.430229Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Aug 19, 2026 · 11:17 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return has improved 0.43 points to -1.18% on day 5 even as the current capture fell 0.83% on 0.24x volume and remained 1.20% above VWAP. Rising averages and a large technology advantage keep the company-linked case alive, but high RSI, neutral flow and unresolved margin and working-capital objections leave durability unsettled.",
"price": 37.1,
"pct": -1.18,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 3.69,
"return_vs_base_pct": 3.69,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.87,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.10 · +3.69% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-08-19T12:52:20.945098Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Aug 19, 2026 · 08:52 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return is +0.34% on day 5, down 0.45 points since the last note, as the capture fell 2.27% on 0.83x volume. A 44.03-point technology edge and rising averages keep the company-linked case alive, but high RSI, neutral flow and unresolved margin and working-capital objections leave durability unsettled.",
"price": 37.41,
"pct": 0.34,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 4.56,
"return_vs_base_pct": 4.56,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.32,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.41 · +4.56% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-08-18T19:46:52.018796Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Aug 18, 2026 · 15:46 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return has improved 2.40 points since the last public note, but the current capture fell 1.97% on 0.69x volume despite remaining above the session's average traded price. A large technology-sector edge and rising averages keep the company-linked case alive, while neutral flow, the reversal and unresolved margin and working-capital objections leave durability unsettled.",
"price": 37.525,
"pct": 0.79,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 4.88,
"return_vs_base_pct": 4.88,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.19,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.52 · +4.88% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-08-18T15:02:36.267263Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Aug 18, 2026 · 11:02 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return has fallen 4.28 points to -1.61% on day 4, while the current capture dropped 3.08% on 0.25x volume and moved 0.76% below the session's average traded price. The 49.76-point technology edge and rising EMAs keep the company-linked case alive, but neutral flow, the reversal and unresolved margin and working-capital objections leave durability unsettled.",
"price": 37.1,
"pct": -1.61,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 3.69,
"return_vs_base_pct": 3.69,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.3,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.10 · +3.69% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-97af0a5e898897cd647500a41fa4f5525b0ccd0291de6755a0405ac5de9fac06",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-08-18T12:58:37.830181Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Aug 18, 2026 · 08:58 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return has fallen 1.06 points to +2.67% on day 4 after the latest capture dropped 3.92% on 0.93x volume; fresh VWAP data is unavailable in the premarket snapshot. A 56.55-point technology edge and rising EMAs keep the company-linked case visible, but neutral flow and unresolved margin and working-capital objections leave durability unsettled.",
"price": 38.28,
"pct": 2.67,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 6.99,
"return_vs_base_pct": 6.99,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.34,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$38.28 · +6.99% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-08-17T19:47:07.723185Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Aug 17, 2026 · 15:47 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI tracked return has improved 2.54 points since the prior public update even as the latest capture dropped 2.71% on 0.74x relative volume. Price remains 0.88% above VWAP with a 54.18-point technology edge, but RSI 72.79 and unresolved margin and working-capital objections leave durability unsettled.",
"price": 38.7588,
"pct": 3.73,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 8.33,
"return_vs_base_pct": 8.33,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.48,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$38.76 · +8.33% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-08-17T15:16:13.786605Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Aug 17, 2026 · 11:16 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return has fallen 5.66 points from +6.85% on day 3 as the latest capture dropped 4.04% on 0.33x relative volume and moved 1.01% below the session's average traded price. Rising EMAs and a 51.90-point technology edge preserve the company-linked case, but the reversal and unresolved margin and working-capital objections leave durability unsettled.",
"price": 38.23,
"pct": 1.19,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 6.85,
"return_vs_base_pct": 6.85,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -4.5,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$38.23 · +6.85% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-532e398fe45784763ad29c2a8c7dc70b93cc89e7bea10528b88b54214294f630",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-08-17T12:40:21.335996Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Aug 17, 2026 · 08:40 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return remains +6.85% on day 3 after a 1.74% rise on 1.06x relative volume above the session's average traded price. Rising EMAs, positive flow and a 56.55-point technology edge reinforce the company-linked case, but RSI 71.93 and unresolved working-capital and margin objections leave durability unsettled.",
"price": 39.84,
"pct": 6.85,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 11.35,
"return_vs_base_pct": 11.35,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$39.84 · +11.35% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $39.29 (-1.38% vs regular close) · Aug 17, 2026 · 08:22 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 39.29,
"ext_pct": -1.38,
"as_of": "2026-08-17T12:22:41Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
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},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-08-15T00:50:36.801653Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Aug 14, 2026 · 20:50 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return fell 0.63 points to +6.85% even as the latest capture rose 1.74% on 1.06x relative volume and held 0.23% above the session's average traded price. Rising EMAs, positive flow and a 56.55-point technology edge reinforce the company-linked case, but RSI 71.93 and unresolved working-capital and margin objections leave durability unsettled after the event premium.",
"price": 39.84,
"pct": 6.85,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 11.35,
"return_vs_base_pct": 11.35,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.18,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$39.84 · +11.35% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-08-14T19:35:56.130233Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Aug 14, 2026 · 15:35 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return added 1.27 points to +7.48% as the latest capture rose 1.57% on 0.85x relative volume and held 0.14% above the session's average traded price. Rising EMAs, accumulation in the broader liquidity measure and a 56.59-point Technology edge strengthen the company-linked case, while RSI 71.84 and neutral flow leave durability unsettled.",
"price": 39.775,
"pct": 7.48,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 11.17,
"return_vs_base_pct": 11.17,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.35,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$39.77 · +11.17% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
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},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-08-14T15:10:57.651066Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Aug 14, 2026 · 11:10 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's published return added 1.18 points to +6.21% as the latest capture rose 1.25% on 0.34x relative volume, although price remained 0.68% below the session's average traded price. A 55.88-point Technology edge and rising EMAs keep the company-linked case visible, while neutral flow and the intraday loss of that reference leave durability unsettled.",
"price": 39.65,
"pct": 6.21,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 10.82,
"return_vs_base_pct": 10.82,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.37,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$39.65 · +10.82% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-08-14T12:42:21.304234Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Aug 14, 2026 · 08:42 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's latest capture rose 4.12%, but its tracked return gave back 1.78 points to +5.03% even with 2.08x relative volume; price finished below the session's average traded price and money flow stayed neutral. The 51.21-point Technology advantage and rising EMAs keep the company-linked case visible, while unresolved durability concerns leave the reaction unsettled.",
"price": 39.16,
"pct": 5.03,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 9.45,
"return_vs_base_pct": 9.45,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.77,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$39.16 · +9.45% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $39.07 (-0.23% vs regular close) · Aug 14, 2026 · 08:21 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 39.07,
"ext_pct": -0.23,
"as_of": "2026-08-14T12:21:22Z",
"persisted": false
},
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},
{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-08-13T19:38:43.861136Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Aug 13, 2026 · 15:38 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return gave back 5.06 points from +11.87% as the latest capture rose 5.81% on 1.89x relative volume but closed 1.86% below the session's average traded price. The 53.59-point Technology advantage and rising EMAs keep the company-linked case visible, yet the lost above-average-price hold, neutral flow and unresolved margin and working-capital concerns leave durability unsettled.",
"price": 39.795,
"pct": 6.81,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 11.22,
"return_vs_base_pct": 11.22,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -4.92,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$39.80 · +11.22% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-8ca81b08810342d0f06c70c66ca9a0d8d5655ae65df9f81b47c146231c6cfeff",
"price_as_of": null,
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},
{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-08-13T15:01:58.423737Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Aug 13, 2026 · 11:01 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return improved 11.00 percentage points to +11.87%, while the latest capture rose 10.49% on 0.81x volume and held 2.96% above the session's average traded price. Rising EMAs, a near-top range position and a 60.29-point Technology advantage strengthen the continuation case, but RSI 73.01, neutral flow and the extended move leave durability unresolved.",
"price": 41.555,
"pct": 11.87,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 16.14,
"return_vs_base_pct": 16.14,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 11.03,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$41.55 · +16.14% from $35.78 base",
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{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-08-13T12:42:27.875881Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Aug 13, 2026 · 08:42 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI tracked return gave back 1.09 points from 1.96% even as the latest capture jumped 19.02% on 2.93x volume. The move remains far ahead of Technology over 20 sessions, but neutral flow and the sharp event reaction make durability the unresolved issue rather than a clean continuation signal.",
"price": 37.61,
"pct": 0.87,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 5.11,
"return_vs_base_pct": 5.11,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.35,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$37.61 · +5.11% from $35.78 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $37.88 (+0.72% vs regular close) · Aug 13, 2026 · 08:21 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "pre",
"price": 37.88,
"ext_pct": 0.72,
"as_of": "2026-08-13T12:21:10Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
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},
{
"day": 0,
"timestamp": "2026-08-12T20:30:49.871378Z",
"date": "Session 0 · Aug 12, 2026 · 16:30 NASDAQGS",
"text": "SMCI's tracked return is 1.96%, up 1.96 points since the previous public note, while the latest capture moved 20.54% on 2.6x volume and sat 4.96% from VWAP. The move is still constructive; a 37.71-point Technology advantage and the current structure remain relevant, but The latest strength supports continuation, although participation and follow-through still matter.",
"price": 38.09,
"pct": 1.96,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 6.46,
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"reference_price": 35.78,
"reference_text": "$38.09 · +6.46% from $35.78 base",
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}
],
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"label": "+1 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": 5.03,
"reference_text": "+5.03% from $35.78 base",
"price": 39.16,
"updated": "Aug 13, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQGS",
"mfe": 13.45,
"mae": 2.45
},
{
"label": "+5 sessions",
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"return": -1.89,
"reference_text": "-1.89% from $35.78 base",
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"updated": "Aug 19, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQGS",
"mfe": 13.48,
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{
"label": "+10 sessions",
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"price": 37.39,
"updated": "Aug 26, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQGS",
"mfe": 13.48,
"mae": -8.57
},
{
"label": "+15 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": -0.76,
"reference_text": "-0.76% from $35.78 base",
"price": 37.0,
"updated": "Sep 2, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQGS",
"mfe": 13.48,
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}
],
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"facts": [],
"role": "alternative",
"selected": false,
"reason": "CRWV had strong AI-demand evidence and relative strength, but its extension and near-VWAP position were less clean than SMCI's improving close."
}
],
"news": [
{
"title": "Dell Stock Rises on AI Boom. Super Micro Forecast Is the Catalyst",
"url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/dell-stock-rises-ai-boom-171906413.html"
},
{
"title": "Why Micron Stock Popped Wednesday",
"url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-micron-stock-popped-wednesday-171036477.html"
},
{
"title": "AMD Rises 3% as AI Server Demand Stays Strong",
"url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/amd-rises-3-ai-server-170547690.html"
},
{
"title": "NLST Stock Rallies After ITC Patent Action Against MU, SMCI, HPE – Roth Capital Sees Settlement Upside",
"url": "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/nlst-stock-rallies-after-itc-patent-action-against-mu-smci-hpe/cZo8BkcRJWh"
}
],
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"market_timezone": "America/New_York"
}
}