MRNA episode 20260821_MRNA_MIDDAY
Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.
{
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"episode_id": "20260821_MRNA_MIDDAY",
"episode_url": "https://trydingday.com/data/agents/v1/episodes/20260821_MRNA_MIDDAY.html",
"public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/coverage/mrna/2026-08-21/midday/",
"published_at": "2026-08-21T17:35:00Z",
"updated_at": "2026-09-14T22:43:58.574607Z",
"lifecycle": {
"tracking_status": "closed",
"active_for_tracking": false,
"stage": "closed"
},
"instrument": {
"type": "equity",
"symbol": "MRNA",
"exchange": "NASDAQGS",
"name": "Moderna, Inc."
},
"technical_reference": {
"status": "ok",
"reference_price": 151.62,
"model_downside_reference": 127.47,
"model_upside_scenario_1": 175.77,
"model_upside_scenario_2": 199.92,
"atr_14": 16.1,
"method": "reference_price_plus_minus_atr14"
},
"public_content": {
"date": "August 21, 2026",
"generated_at": "2026-08-21T17:35:00Z",
"original_published_at": null,
"session_tag": "midday",
"label": "Market coverage",
"try_label": "Raw Try",
"public_status": "Raw Try",
"why_today": "MRNA becomes the day's Raw Try because its company-linked vaccine evidence creates a specific thesis worth following. The panel does not treat the sharp move as proof of continuation: the stock is extended, late intraday structure weakened, and the next check is renewed demand after the initial repricing.",
"entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: Track whether the melanoma-vaccine read-through produces renewed participation and a recovery of the relevant intraday reference over the next 15 market sessions. Invalidation boundary: The thesis is falsified if renewed demand fails and price cannot recover the relevant intraday reference after the catalyst has been absorbed.",
"reference_price": 151.62,
"scanner": {
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"score": null,
"score_version": "v0_legacy_reconstructed",
"change": 13.72,
"volume": 41845615,
"average_volume": 11539425,
"volume_ratio": 3.63,
"rsi": 75.06,
"ema_trend": "104.81 > 83.16 > 69.8",
"position_52w": 83.9,
"atr_14": 16.1,
"vwap": 149.76,
"vwap_state": "below",
"vwap_distance_pct": 1.24,
"vwap_reading": {
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"state": "below",
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"range_position": 0.566,
"gap_pct": 0.0,
"relative_strength": {
"excess_pct": 13.35,
"index": "QQQ",
"index_chg_pct": 0.37,
"status": "normal"
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"percentile": 96.8,
"status": "exceptional",
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"extension": {
"atr": 16.1,
"dist_atr": 4.25,
"ema_ref": 83.16,
"status": "extended"
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"atr_move_signal": {
"atr_pct": 10.62,
"status": "normal",
"z": 1.29
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"sentiment": null,
"sentiment_score": null,
"earnings_warning": {
"days_away": null,
"earnings_date": null,
"has_earnings_soon": false,
"status": "clear"
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"options_snapshot": null,
"extended_hours": {
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"market_state": "REGULAR",
"phase": "regular",
"post_market_pct": null,
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"status": "none"
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"quiet_day": false,
"status": "none",
"trend_stacked": true
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"short_pct_float": 15.23,
"days_to_cover": 7.21,
"catalyst": "Exploring the top movers within the S&P500 index during today's session.",
"sector": "Healthcare",
"exchange": "NasdaqGS",
"sec_signal": "INSIDER_SELL (M/S)"
},
"levels": {
"reference": 151.62,
"downside": 127.47,
"upside_1": 175.77,
"upside_2": 199.92
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"review": {
"score": null,
"status": "Majority with dissent",
"summary": "Raw Try: MRNA presents the most concrete and research-useful 15-session thesis, but extended price action and late intraday weakness leave continuation unconfirmed.",
"views": [
{
"name": "Nate Brooks",
"role": "market structure and timing analyst",
"icon": "📈",
"view": "MRNA has the largest move, but the tape is not clean: it is extended, below VWAP late, and the intraday trend is down.",
"reasoning": "Agreed. The structure is a follow-up setup, not a finished breakout."
},
{
"name": "Marcus Feld",
"role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
"icon": "🦊",
"view": "The counterpoint is mechanism. The melanoma-vaccine read-through is a real company-linked story, not a generic top-mover headline.",
"reasoning": "Then MRNA is the defensible public case: a concrete mechanism, strong relative move, and a clear next check."
},
{
"name": "Elena Vartanyan",
"role": "independent statistical auditor",
"icon": "🎯",
"view": "A one-day move does not answer the persistence question. The facts support attention, not a forecast.",
"reasoning": "I will narrow that. It wins the research comparison, not the continuation test."
},
{
"name": "Kenji Osei",
"role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
"icon": "🧠",
"view": "The information packet is stronger than the headline label, but issuer relevance and mechanism still need follow-through.",
"reasoning": "The options observations are secondary execution evidence, not directional proof. They do not repair the missing continuation record."
},
{
"name": "Priya Nandakumar",
"role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
"icon": "🛡️",
"view": "Anyone chasing a four-ATR extension carries the cost of being late. A research episode can follow the case without calling the condition comfortable.",
"reasoning": "The label should stay Raw Try. If renewed demand fails and price cannot reclaim the relevant reference, the thesis loses its live path."
}
],
"conviction": {
"status_phrase": "majority-with-dissent",
"basis": "Support — company-linked vaccine evidence and exceptional relative volume; Counter-case — extended move with late intraday weakness; Unresolved — renewed participation and follow-through after the initial repricing.",
"risk": "",
"resolution_pct": 62.0,
"counter_case_pct": 23.0,
"unresolved_pct": 15.0
},
"context_roundtable": {
"mode": "coffee",
"status": "partial",
"consulted_voice_ids": [
"elena",
"marcus",
"kenji",
"priya",
"nate"
],
"summary": "The session mixed a fragile risk backdrop with sharp single-name repricing. The room kept MRNA as a research case while separating its mechanism from the still-unconfirmed continuation.",
"long_read": "The broad session context was defined by unstable risk appetite and a market willing to reward isolated catalysts while keeping the continuation test open. The public case rests on a specific company-linked mechanism rather than the size of a single daily move. MRNA has a useful next observation, but extended structure and late weakness keep the thesis conditional.",
"transcript": [
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "The market context is supportive of volatility, not automatically of persistence."
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "A catalyst can matter without becoming a trend on schedule."
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "The clean separation is mechanism versus confirmation. We have the first, not the second."
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "The cost of ignoring that distinction is usually paid after the headline."
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "The tape is loud, then soft. That is a follow-up question, not a victory lap."
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "The healthcare story still gives the day a real thread."
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "A thread, yes. A conclusion, no."
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "The evidence remains usable because the next check is explicit."
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "Keep the risk visible and the research remains honest."
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "Reclaim the reference or the setup loses its shape."
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "That is specific enough to test."
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "The context supports attention while the tape withholds confirmation."
}
]
},
"context_roundtable_sources": []
},
"updates": [
{
"day": 15,
"timestamp": "2026-09-14T22:43:58.574607Z",
"date": "Session 15 · Sep 14, 2026 · 18:43 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's 15-session tracking closes at -0.84% from the $147.93 entry price. The path reached +9.09% at best and -12.12% at worst. Fresh closure evidence records a $146.69 provider price and a $146.26 post-market quote (-0.30% versus the regular close). Current session-average price, RSI, EMA trend and 52-week position readings are unavailable; traded volume is 0.65 times average. The SEC 8-K remains company context, not proof it caused or sustained the return. The published condition of renewed demand after the initial repricing was not confirmed across the full horizon, so public tracking ends.",
"price": 146.69,
"pct": -0.84,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.25,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.25,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.8,
"session_day": 15,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$146.69 · -3.25% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": true,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-b6e833baf0ed204706d6c0e51a85cf8f0a1c64c4e1df44f3b2e0985e3e68d2b8",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-21T21:20:17Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-11T22:10:10.675376Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Sep 11, 2026 · 18:10 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked loss widened 1.30 points to -2.68% as the latest capture rose 5.38% to $143.97, while market evidence placed price 1.75% below the $146.54 VWAP reference on 0.95 times average volume. The vaccine-linked mechanism and exceptional longer-window Healthcare relative strength remain specific, but no structure is confirmed and the latest rebound has not yet proved renewed demand.",
"price": 143.97,
"pct": -2.68,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.05,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.05,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.84,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$143.97 · -5.05% from $151.62 base",
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-11T21:35:48Z",
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{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-11T19:50:36.365598Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Sep 11, 2026 · 15:50 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA extended its repair: the tracked loss narrowed 0.51 points to -1.38% as price rose 7.42% to $146.76 and held above VWAP in the upper part of its range. The move still lacks durable support because volume was 0.78 times average, dollar volume was 0.36 times its twenty-day average and no structure is confirmed; the vaccine read-through remains plausible, but renewed demand is not established.",
"price": 146.76,
"pct": -1.38,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.21,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.21,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.25,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$146.76 · -3.21% from $151.62 base",
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"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-11T19:21:33.380908Z",
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{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-11T14:33:44.753072Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Sep 11, 2026 · 10:33 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA tracked loss narrowed 5.76 points to -1.89% as the stock rose 6.03% to $144.87 and held 1.95% above VWAP near the top of its range. The rebound is materially better than the prior note, but volume was only 0.17 times average and no structure is confirmed; the vaccine-linked mechanism remains a live question, while the stronger claim that renewed demand has begun still lacks proof.",
"price": 144.865,
"pct": -1.89,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.46,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.46,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 5.43,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$144.87 · -4.46% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": true,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-611acd23d3b1aedd59fc0915642ae76795b5f8f106642181898446f66fa987a7",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-11T14:06:25.411176Z",
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},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-09-10T21:43:36.662664Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Sep 10, 2026 · 17:43 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked loss narrowed 1.09 points to -7.65% since the previous public note. The stock rose 0.74% to USD 136.62 and held 0.32% above VWAP in the upper range, but participation was only 0.49 times average and no structure is confirmed; the vaccine read-through remains unresolved despite very strong twenty-session relative performance.",
"price": 136.62,
"pct": -7.65,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.89,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.89,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.21,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$136.62 · -9.89% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $135.76 (-0.63% vs regular close) · Sep 10, 2026 · 17:24 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 135.76,
"ext_pct": -0.63,
"as_of": "2026-09-10T21:24:35Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:24:35Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-09-10T20:00:08.082621Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Sep 10, 2026 · 16:00 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked loss narrowed 0.58 points to -8.74% since the previous public note. The latest capture slipped 0.60% to USD 134.79 but held 0.32% above VWAP in the upper range on 0.37 times average volume; the stock still leads Healthcare by a wide twenty-session margin, yet the vaccine read-through has no confirmed structure or renewed-demand confirmation.",
"price": 134.79,
"pct": -8.74,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -11.1,
"return_vs_base_pct": -11.1,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.18,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$134.79 · -11.10% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T19:21:10.275300Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-09-10T14:49:03.971008Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Sep 10, 2026 · 10:49 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA tracked loss widened 0.99 points to -9.32% since the last public note. The latest capture slipped 0.40% to about USD 135.07 but moved 0.83% above VWAP near the top of its range; participation was only 0.12 times average and decelerating, with no confirmed structure. The vaccine read-through remains specific, while the recovery question is still unresolved.",
"price": 135.0701,
"pct": -9.32,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.92,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.92,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.36,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$135.07 · -10.92% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T14:06:15.609526Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-09-09T22:06:05.733974Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Sep 9, 2026 · 18:06 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked loss widened from -7.81% to -8.33% since the last public note as the latest capture fell 3.36% to $135.61, below VWAP and near the bottom of its range on 0.54x average volume. The company-linked vaccine mechanism remains specific, but the stronger recovery claim is now under heavier pressure because renewed demand and confirmed structure still have not appeared.",
"price": 135.61,
"pct": -8.33,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.56,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.56,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.3,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$135.61 · -10.56% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $135.65 (+0.03% vs regular close) · Sep 9, 2026 · 17:46 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 135.65,
"ext_pct": 0.03,
"as_of": "2026-09-09T21:46:38Z",
"persisted": false
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"relevant": true,
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{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-09-09T20:21:09.995262Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Sep 9, 2026 · 16:21 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked loss widened 1.58 points to -7.81% as the latest capture fell 3.04% to USD 136.06, 1.67% below VWAP on 0.38x average volume. The vaccine read-through still sits on exceptional 20-session Healthcare-relative strength, but accelerating weakness and no confirmed structure do not show renewed demand.",
"price": 136.06,
"pct": -7.81,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.26,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.26,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.39,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$136.06 · -10.26% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-09T19:21:49.561649Z",
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},
{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-09-09T14:45:33.313837Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Sep 9, 2026 · 10:45 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked loss widened 1.09 points to -6.23% as the latest capture slipped 0.46% to USD 139.68, barely 0.01% above VWAP on 0.13x average volume, with no confirmed structure. The melanoma-vaccine read-through remains a specific question and MRNA is still up 130.30% over 20 sessions versus Healthcare's -0.85%, but the current hold is too thin to confirm renewed demand.",
"price": 139.68,
"pct": -6.23,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -7.87,
"return_vs_base_pct": -7.87,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.42,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$139.68 · -7.87% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-09T14:06:47.281893Z",
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},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-09-08T21:46:40.426743Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Sep 8, 2026 · 17:46 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked loss widened 1.34 points to -5.14% as price fell 3.59% to $140.33, finished 2.32% below VWAP near the lower part of its range, and traded at 0.64x average volume. The issuer-linked vaccine mechanism and exceptional longer-window performance versus Healthcare remain relevant, but the earlier repair claim has failed its hold test: no structure or renewed demand is confirmed.",
"price": 140.33,
"pct": -5.14,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -7.45,
"return_vs_base_pct": -7.45,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.91,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$140.33 · -7.45% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $140.90 (+0.41% vs regular close) · Sep 8, 2026 · 17:26 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 140.9,
"ext_pct": 0.41,
"as_of": "2026-09-08T21:26:11Z",
"persisted": false
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{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-09-08T19:47:46.312246Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Sep 8, 2026 · 15:47 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked loss widened 0.79 points to -3.80% as price fell 2.64% to $141.71 and moved 1.36% below VWAP on 0.48x average volume. Its exceptional twenty-session Healthcare-relative strength keeps the vaccine read-through relevant, but the current low-range capture and absent structure show renewed demand still has not arrived.",
"price": 141.71,
"pct": -3.8,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -6.54,
"return_vs_base_pct": -6.54,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.79,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$141.71 · -6.54% from $151.62 base",
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-08T19:22:03.550453Z",
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{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-09-08T14:42:19.246116Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Sep 8, 2026 · 10:42 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA tracked loss widened 1.40 points to -3.01% at session 11 after the latest capture fell 1.82% to $142.90. Price is 0.09% above VWAP, but volume is 0.15 times average and no structure is confirmed; exceptional 20-session Healthcare-relative performance keeps the vaccine read-through relevant, while renewed demand remains absent.",
"price": 142.9,
"pct": -3.01,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.75,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.75,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.75,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$142.90 · -5.75% from $151.62 base",
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"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-08T14:06:19.550837Z",
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-09-04T22:02:18.899571Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Sep 4, 2026 · 18:02 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA tracked loss widened 0.49 points to -1.61% as the latest capture fell 2.23% to $145.55, almost exactly at VWAP on 0.96 times average volume. Strong Healthcare-relative performance and accumulation keep the vaccine read-through relevant, but no confirmed structure or renewed demand has appeared.",
"price": 145.55,
"pct": -1.61,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.0,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.0,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.07,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$145.55 · -4.00% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $145.00 (-0.38% vs regular close) · Sep 4, 2026 · 17:35 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 145.0,
"ext_pct": -0.38,
"as_of": "2026-09-04T21:35:39Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-04T21:35:39Z",
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-09-04T20:02:36.087033Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Sep 4, 2026 · 16:02 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA tracked loss narrowed 0.93 points to -1.12% as the latest capture fell 2.16% to $145.66 but held almost exactly at VWAP. The vaccine read-through remains relevant with strong Healthcare-relative performance and accumulation, yet volume is only 0.80 times average and no confirmed structure is recorded, so the repair has not established renewed demand.",
"price": 145.66,
"pct": -1.12,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.93,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.93,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.23,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$145.66 · -3.93% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-04T19:21:46.989147Z",
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-09-04T14:53:40.281259Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Sep 4, 2026 · 10:53 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked loss widened 1.39 points to -2.05% as the latest capture fell 1.92% to $146.01, below VWAP near the lower quarter of its range on 0.27 times average volume. Long-window Healthcare outperformance and accumulation keep the melanoma-vaccine read-through relevant, but the current decline and missing structure leave renewed demand unresolved.",
"price": 146.005,
"pct": -2.05,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.7,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.7,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.82,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$146.00 · -3.70% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-04T14:06:17.385242Z",
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},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-09-03T20:16:01.323814Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Sep 3, 2026 · 16:16 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked loss narrowed 0.66 points to -0.66% as the latest capture fell 2.36% to $147.25 but remained 1.28% above VWAP. Long-window Healthcare outperformance and accumulation keep the vaccine read-through relevant, yet the current decline, no confirmed structure and only 0.65 times average volume leave renewed demand unresolved.",
"price": 147.25,
"pct": -0.66,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.88,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.88,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.87,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$147.25 · -2.88% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-03T19:21:52.173032Z",
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},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-09-03T14:33:40.562982Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Sep 3, 2026 · 10:33 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked return fell 3.27 points to -1.32% in the latest capture, after the prior public note had recovered to +1.95%. Price is now 0.54% below VWAP near the lower quarter of its range on only 0.17 times average volume; the melanoma-vaccine read-through and long-run Healthcare outperformance remain real, but today's tape contradicts the stronger repair claim and leaves renewed demand unresolved.",
"price": 145.94,
"pct": -1.32,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.75,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.75,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.22,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$145.94 · -3.75% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-d1b07d0b8e38ecf010ccfbc74d7cd16f6a5549dd2e848962a17d34cba6a3c6ff",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-03T14:06:17.841920Z",
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},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-02T22:21:32.470177Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Sep 2, 2026 · 18:21 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked gain improved 0.85 points to +1.95% after the latest capture fell 2.24% to .81. Price is still 0.42% above VWAP but in the lower third on 1.08 times average volume with no confirmed structure; exceptional Healthcare-relative strength and accumulation keep the vaccine-linked question live, while the current tape does not yet confirm durable follow-through.",
"price": 150.81,
"pct": 1.95,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.53,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.53,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.85,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$150.81 · -0.53% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-02T21:26:11Z",
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},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-02T15:56:28.416151Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Sep 2, 2026 · 11:56 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA tracked gain fell 3.19 points to +1.10% after the latest capture dropped 3.07% to 149.535. Price moved from the prior upper-range repair to 1.25% below VWAP near the lower part of the range on 0.43 times average volume. The vaccine-linked case and exceptional Healthcare-relative strength remain in the record, but this session does not support durable demand or confirmed repair.",
"price": 149.535,
"pct": 1.1,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.38,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.38,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.13,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$149.53 · -1.38% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-64d15b0ac772628767dd71d8e46e604dba4c9a3cb3a6c6a4110496d10e3d1e01",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-02T14:44:54.049824Z",
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},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-01T22:11:48.982114Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Sep 1, 2026 · 18:11 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked gain holds at +4.29% while the latest capture rose 9.93% to $154.27. Price is 4.74% above VWAP near the top of its range on 1.71x average volume, with accumulation and exceptional Healthcare-relative strength; the vaccine-linked repair is more credible, but no confirmed structure and the extended move keep durable demand unresolved.",
"price": 154.27,
"pct": 4.29,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 1.75,
"return_vs_base_pct": 1.75,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.45,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$154.27 · +1.75% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $151.55 (-1.76% vs regular close) · Sep 1, 2026 · 17:48 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 151.55,
"ext_pct": -1.76,
"as_of": "2026-09-01T21:48:15Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-01T21:48:15Z",
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},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-01T20:48:55.347481Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Sep 1, 2026 · 16:48 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked return improved 4.80 points to +3.24% as the current capture rose 9.44%, held 4.37% above VWAP near the top of its range and traded at 1.35x average volume. Accumulation and exceptional Healthcare-relative strength make the vaccine-linked repair more credible, but no confirmed structure and an extended position leave durable demand as the unresolved test.",
"price": 153.5899,
"pct": 3.24,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 1.3,
"return_vs_base_pct": 1.3,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 5.3,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$153.59 · +1.30% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-15a8436eef0fbfd46281c95526076398bf3fa956de130ce2f0ea4744609280e1",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-01T19:21:29.772075Z",
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},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-01T15:03:31.093919Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Sep 1, 2026 · 11:03 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked return improved 3.57 points from the previous public update to -1.56%, while the current capture rose 3.72% and held 1.69% above VWAP near the upper range. The vaccine-linked read-through now has a more credible repair, supported by accumulation and strong relative performance, but 0.38x average volume and no confirmed structure leave sustained demand unresolved.",
"price": 145.56,
"pct": -1.56,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.0,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.0,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.44,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$145.56 · -4.00% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-c89408138661cb4be384e7edbe23a9f6aa5b1c11b967b51c49b05146d0edcc74",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-01T14:13:30.142689Z",
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-08-31T22:10:04.690525Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Aug 31, 2026 · 18:10 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA gained 1.12 points to -5.13%, reclaimed 0.07% above VWAP and showed accumulation on 1.25x average volume. The move is more credible than the prior low-volume reclaim, yet decelerating participation and no confirmed structure leave the vaccine read-through dependent on sustained demand.",
"price": 140.34,
"pct": -5.13,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -7.44,
"return_vs_base_pct": -7.44,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.37,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$140.34 · -7.44% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-31T21:40:24Z",
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-08-31T20:05:16.769275Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Aug 31, 2026 · 16:05 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA lost 2.66 points to -6.25%, with price 2.63% below VWAP near the bottom of its range despite volume near average at 0.97x. Longer-window Healthcare outperformance and accumulation remain supportive context, but the failed reclaim leaves the vaccine-linked recovery thesis unconfirmed.",
"price": 136.745,
"pct": -6.25,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.81,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.81,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.91,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$136.75 · -9.81% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-31T19:21:03.615633Z",
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-08-31T14:49:10.712636Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Aug 31, 2026 · 10:49 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA recovered above VWAP and improved to -3.59%, but the move came on just 0.29x average volume. The vaccine-linked thesis remains specific; the sharper question is whether this reclaim attracts sustained demand, which the current record still does not prove.",
"price": 142.675,
"pct": -3.59,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.9,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.9,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.09,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$142.68 · -5.90% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-714ee1f5f56f80acf152b2f63134ab121264b7ca1d6a8634b5de2da1f7682d9c",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-31T14:06:24.388513Z",
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},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-08-29T05:57:28.757479Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Aug 29, 2026 · 01:57 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA tracked result improved 1.96 points to -6.72% as the current capture fell 3.35% to 137.99 on 1.77x average volume. The vaccine-linked thesis retains exceptional Healthcare-relative performance, but price is 1.74 ATR above its EMA reference with no confirmed structure; renewed demand remains unproven.",
"price": 137.99,
"pct": -6.72,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -8.99,
"return_vs_base_pct": -8.99,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.28,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$137.99 · -8.99% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-29T05:01:43.976820Z",
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},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-08-28T14:42:11.251891Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Aug 28, 2026 · 10:42 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA’s tracked result fell 5.19 points to -8.68% as the early capture declined 4.70%, moved 0.65% below VWAP and held just 0.53x average volume. The vaccine-linked mechanism remains specific, but the renewed-demand condition from the published thesis is under sharper pressure after the average-price hold failed again.",
"price": 136.055,
"pct": -8.68,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.27,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.27,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -4.43,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$136.06 · -10.27% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-e8bdd7e824247a634610e3073c5c9c786a92548595a4f0ed2c3947330855d09e",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-28T14:07:04.955352Z",
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{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-08-27T21:53:49.206983Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Aug 27, 2026 · 17:53 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked result improved 1.65 points to -3.49% despite a 4.60% session decline; price finished 0.40% above VWAP at 142.77 on 1.76x average volume. The average-price hold keeps the vaccine-linked recovery question alive, but decelerating flow and a mid-range close do not yet show renewed demand.",
"price": 142.77,
"pct": -3.49,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.84,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.84,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.5,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$142.77 · -5.84% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $142.11 (-0.46% vs regular close) · Aug 27, 2026 · 17:26 NASDAQGS"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 142.11,
"ext_pct": -0.46,
"as_of": "2026-08-27T21:26:07Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-27T21:26:07Z",
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},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-08-27T20:00:56.255633Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Aug 27, 2026 · 16:00 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked result fell 1.71 points to -5.14%, and the current capture dropped 6.13% to 140.49, 1.27% below VWAP near the lower part of its range. Accumulation and exceptional Healthcare-relative performance keep the vaccine-linked mechanism specific, but the lower-range selloff with decelerating 1.39 times participation leaves renewed demand unresolved.",
"price": 140.49,
"pct": -5.14,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -7.34,
"return_vs_base_pct": -7.34,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.74,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$140.49 · -7.34% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-27T19:33:09.484369Z",
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},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-08-27T14:44:18.103592Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Aug 27, 2026 · 10:44 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked result fell 4.60 points to -3.43% as today's capture dropped 3.35% but held 0.35% above VWAP at 144.15. The vaccine-linked case remains specific and Healthcare-relative strength is exceptional, yet the lower-range move leaves renewed demand unresolved.",
"price": 144.65,
"pct": -3.43,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.6,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.6,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.31,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$144.65 · -4.60% from $151.62 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-39b2388e757a6d834cdcaa40eb24ab5ccd2e3d1ec214ae6ee7db575f04d19dd2",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-27T14:06:46.334429Z",
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},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-08-26T21:46:46.989890Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Aug 26, 2026 · 17:46 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked result improved 2.28 points to +1.17% despite the latest capture falling 5.77%; price remained 0.52% above VWAP in the lower half of its range. Participation was 1.57 times average and money flow shows accumulation, while the exceptional Healthcare-relative return and absent confirmed structure leave the vaccine-linked case dependent on renewed demand rather than proving the repair.",
"price": 149.66,
"pct": 1.17,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.29,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.29,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.99,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 151.62,
"reference_text": "$149.66 · -1.29% from $151.62 base",
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"text": "MRNA's tracked result fell 2.33 points to -1.11% as the latest capture dropped 7.67% and sat below VWAP near the lower part of its range on 0.30 times average participation. The vaccine-linked case remains specific and healthcare-relative performance is still exceptional, but the record shows no renewed demand after the extension and the repaired thesis is back under pressure.",
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"date": "Session 3 · Aug 26, 2026 · 10:40 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA's tracked result fell 6.15 points to +1.22% as the latest capture dropped 4.68% below VWAP on 0.48 times average volume. Healthcare-relative performance remains exceptional at 173.33 points above the sector over 20 sessions, and the vaccine-linked case is still specific, but the repaired thesis is back under pressure: the current record shows no renewed demand after a 2.77-ATR extension.",
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"date": "Session 2 · Aug 25, 2026 · 17:57 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA eased 1.25 points in tracked result even as the latest capture rose 14.36% and price held 2.45% above VWAP on 3.72 times average volume. The vaccine-linked thesis and exceptional Healthcare strength have repaired the prior failure, but a 3.52-ATR extension, high RSI and fading flow still separate renewed demand from a move that can hold.",
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"date": "Session 2 · Aug 25, 2026 · 15:52 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA tracked result improved 4.95 points to +8.62% after a 14.0% session gain, with price 2.36% above the session average on 3.16 times average volume. The vaccine-linked thesis and exceptional Healthcare performance have repaired the prior failure, but decelerating participation and a 3.51 ATR extension still separate renewed demand from a move that can hold.",
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"text": "MRNA's tracked result has improved 9.78 points to +3.67% after an 11.21% session gain, with price 2.75% above the session average near the top of its range. The vaccine read-through and exceptional healthcare-relative performance keep the research question alive, but decelerating participation, a 3.38-ATR extension and RSI at 74.4 separate repair from confirmed renewed demand.",
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"text": "Aftermarket update: $139.05 (+0.12% vs regular close) · Aug 24, 2026 · 16:04 NASDAQGS"
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"date": "Session 1 · Aug 24, 2026 · 10:36 NASDAQGS",
"text": "MRNA first panel follow-up records a tracked return of -10.46% after the current capture fell 8.18% on 0.67x volume and finished 2.70% below the session average near the lower range. Exceptional healthcare-relative performance and the vaccine mechanism remain visible, but renewed demand has not appeared and continuation is materially weakened.",
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"text": "Aftermarket update: $145.31 (+0.12% vs regular close) · Aug 21, 2026 · 17:26 NASDAQGS"
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