KMB episode 20260827_KMB_EARLY
Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.
{
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"episode_id": "20260827_KMB_EARLY",
"episode_url": "https://trydingday.com/data/agents/v1/episodes/20260827_KMB_EARLY.html",
"public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/coverage/kmb/2026-08-27/early/",
"published_at": "2026-08-27T18:35:40Z",
"updated_at": "2026-09-18T22:19:26.439899Z",
"lifecycle": {
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"stage": "closed"
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"instrument": {
"type": "equity",
"symbol": "KMB",
"exchange": "",
"name": "Kimberly-Clark Corporation"
},
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"status": "unavailable",
"reason": "not_recorded_in_published_episode"
},
"public_content": {
"date": "August 27, 2026",
"generated_at": "2026-08-27T18:35:40Z",
"original_published_at": null,
"session_tag": "early",
"label": "Market coverage",
"try_label": "Early Try",
"public_status": "Early Try",
"why_today": "Kimberly-Clark retains the cleanest prepared compression in the Coiled docket: a mature, narrow base, quiet participation and a nearby trigger. The breakout has not happened, and the information file lacks a primary or trusted source, so the thesis is an Early Try only if the structure holds and 112.70 is crossed with real participation.",
"entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: KMB's mature, narrow base and recent compression may resolve into a higher-range expansion if price holds its structure and crosses 112.70 with participation. Invalidation boundary: A loss of the 105.77 base floor, a high-volume downside expansion, or persistent failure to hold above VWAP before the trigger is reached would invalidate the early thesis.",
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"status": "none"
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"base_range_width_pct": 6.31,
"base_range_width_percentile": 14.17,
"base_support_distance_atr": 1.4927,
"base_touch_count": 7,
"benchmark_return_20_pct": 4.06,
"body_to_range_ratio": 0.4415,
"bollinger_percentile": 11.67,
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"breakout_trigger_price": 112.7,
"close_location_value": 0.4795,
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"compression_started_at": "2026-08-25T00:00:00-04:00",
"distance_to_breakout_atr": 1.0273,
"distance_to_breakout_pct": 2.57,
"excess_return_20_pct": 95.65,
"history_sessions": 252,
"inside_day": false,
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"intraday_return_pct": 0.69,
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"schema_version": "coiled-features.v2",
"status": "coiled"
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"days_to_cover": null,
"catalyst": null,
"sector": "Consumer Defensive",
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"reference": 109.74,
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"review": {
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"status": "Majority with dissent",
"summary": "Early Try: KMB is the only prepared Coiled case retaining coiled status and all hard gates. Its mature, narrow base, dry-up participation, above-VWAP intraday structure and 2.57% distance to the 112.70 trigger make a technical expansion hypothesis researchable. The absent breakout, three-session compression age and unverified information keep the thesis conditional; loss of the 105.77 base floor or a failed, low-quality trigger invalidates it.",
"views": [
{
"name": "Elena Vartanyan",
"role": "independent statistical auditor",
"icon": "๐ฏ",
"view": "Separate the anticipated expansion mechanism from any claim that an expansion has already begun.",
"reasoning": "Do not let the cleanest structure become a prediction without a trigger and falsifier."
},
{
"name": "Marcus Feld",
"role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
"icon": "๐ฆ",
"view": "Ask what could make the base resolve now and whether the available information supplies a credible catalyst.",
"reasoning": "The absence of a trusted company-specific catalyst must remain visible."
},
{
"name": "Kenji Osei",
"role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
"icon": "๐ง ",
"view": "Trace the episode's repeated captures, timestamps, gates and source-quality limitations.",
"reasoning": "The trajectory is evolving evidence, not a stack of independent votes."
},
{
"name": "Priya Nandakumar",
"role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
"icon": "๐ก๏ธ",
"view": "Test the Early label against failure at the base floor, VWAP and the breakout trigger.",
"reasoning": "A watch-only thesis must not be phrased as an entry or execution instruction."
},
{
"name": "Nate Brooks",
"role": "market structure and timing analyst",
"icon": "๐",
"view": "Read compression through participation, range position and the distance to the trigger.",
"reasoning": "Quiet volume is setup evidence, not confirmation; the trigger needs real participation."
}
],
"conviction": {
"status_phrase": "majority-with-dissent",
"basis": "Support โ KMB alone retains the full prepared compression and base structure near a defined trigger; Counter-case โ no breakout, only three sessions of current compression and no primary or trusted catalyst; Unresolved โ the next sessions must prove participation and hold the base floor.",
"risk": "",
"resolution_pct": 62.0,
"counter_case_pct": 23.0,
"unresolved_pct": 15.0
},
"context_roundtable": {
"mode": "coffee",
"status": "complete",
"consulted_voice_ids": [
"elena",
"marcus",
"kenji",
"priya",
"nate"
],
"summary": "The wider session pairs a technology-led headline with rate and policy sensitivity around Jackson Hole, while the sealed market cut shows uneven participation. That backdrop makes KMB's compact technical thesis testable but leaves no room to confuse a nearby trigger with confirmation.",
"long_read": "The session opened with technology strength after Nvidia's forecast, but the broader picture remained conditional: Treasury yields and the dollar were sensitive to incoming data and the upcoming Jackson Hole message, while oil and geopolitics kept the inflation channel alive. The sealed market cut records breadth as incomplete rather than uniformly supportive. In that environment KMB is interesting precisely because its argument is local and measurable: a mature base, quiet participation and a trigger at 112.70. The room's disagreement is over how much the absence of a trusted catalyst should matter. The final compromise is narrow: the technical anticipation survives, but only as an Early Try whose next proof is participation at the trigger and whose failure is a loss of the base floor.",
"transcript": [
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "This is a headline-led session with a narrow market personality: technology gets the applause, rates keep the knife visible. KMB's advantage is that its thesis does not need the whole tape to become euphoric; it needs one structure to remain coherent.",
"source_urls": [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nasdaq-leads-wall-st-after-nvidia-quells-ai-fears-133355523.html",
"https://www.marketscreener.com/news/forex-news/dollar-flat-after-data-as-focus-shifts-to-jackson-hole-ce7858dede8af723"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "And the macro backdrop is exactly why I dislike vague catalysts. The dollar is waiting, yields are twitching and the market is watching Warsh. If KMB breaks, it must show its own demand rather than borrow confidence from a tech index headline.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.marketscreener.com/news/forex-news/dollar-flat-after-data-as-focus-shifts-to-jackson-hole-ce7858dede8af723",
"https://apnews.com/article/b1704f7dffb77bc3166f4485e8d89532"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "That is fair, but the chart does not ask permission from Nvidia. KMB is two and a half percent from its trigger, above VWAP, and the volume is quiet. The tape is saying 'coiled,' not 'go long.' It is a very fussy verb.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.marketscreener.com/news/forex-news/dollar-flat-after-data-as-focus-shifts-to-jackson-hole-ce7858dede8af723"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "Let us keep the timestamps straight. The broad sources describe the day-level regime; the KMB structure comes from the sealed 17:45 observation. They can sit next to each other, but one must not masquerade as the other.",
"source_urls": [
"https://apnews.com/article/b1704f7dffb77bc3166f4485e8d89532"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "And the risk boundary remains 105.77. A rate-sensitive tape can turn a pretty base into a trap quickly. I want the page to say that losing the floor ends the thesis, not merely makes the story less attractive.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.marketscreener.com/news/forex-news/dollar-flat-after-data-as-focus-shifts-to-jackson-hole-ce7858dede8af723",
"https://dailymarketupdates.com/articles/2026-08-27"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "The current public conversation is also reminding traders not to speculate with a losing trade. That is a useful temperament check here: missing an unconfirmed move is cheaper than inventing confirmation because a trigger is nearby.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/2092760209252921608"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "Yes, and Brian Shannon's line about the week's low holding for SPY, QQQ and SMH is the opposite kind of context: broad structure can matter, but it is still a conditional level, not a prophecy. KMB gets the same treatment.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/alphatrends/status/2092735150572662935"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "Meanwhile Meb is talking about the scale race in asset management. Interesting, but not a KMB catalyst. The market can discuss industry consolidation and still leave this little consumer-staples coil entirely to its own order flow.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/MebFaber/status/2092700375631699969"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "That distinction is why the selected case survives the context pass. None of those public-discourse items changes KMB's identity, trigger, base floor or captured evidence. They only increase the need for explicit provenance.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/alphatrends/status/2092735150572662935",
"https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/2092760209252921608"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "So the context makes me stricter, not more bearish. Above VWAP is a supporting observation. A close above 112.70 with expanding participation is the confirmation. Below 105.77 is the clean rejection. Everything between is just the room arguing over furniture.",
"source_urls": [
"https://dailymarketupdates.com/articles/2026-08-27"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "And no trusted company catalyst means no heroic narrative. The best public sentence is almost embarrassingly plain: the structure is there, the proof is not. Readers can handle that; markets certainly can.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.kimberly-clark.com/en-us/company/about"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "The broader tape is therefore a pressure test. If rates upset the market, KMB must defend its base without pretending to be a defensive miracle. If risk settles, the trigger gives us a fair test. Either way the next observation has teeth.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.marketscreener.com/news/forex-news/dollar-flat-after-data-as-focus-shifts-to-jackson-hole-ce7858dede8af723",
"https://apnews.com/article/b1704f7dffb77bc3166f4485e8d89532"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "Then we have our uncomfortable little winner. KMB is the only coil that still deserves the question, but the answer is deferred to participation at 112.70. The spring gets a ticket, not a trophy.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/alphatrends/status/2092735150572662935"
]
}
],
"source_urls": [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nasdaq-leads-wall-st-after-nvidia-quells-ai-fears-133355523.html",
"https://www.marketscreener.com/news/forex-news/dollar-flat-after-data-as-focus-shifts-to-jackson-hole-ce7858dede8af723",
"https://apnews.com/article/b1704f7dffb77bc3166f4485e8d89532",
"https://dailymarketupdates.com/articles/2026-08-27",
"https://x.com/alphatrends/status/2092735150572662935",
"https://x.com/PeterLBrandt/status/2092760209252921608",
"https://x.com/MebFaber/status/2092700375631699969",
"https://www.kimberly-clark.com/en-us/company/about"
]
},
"context_roundtable_sources": []
},
"updates": [
{
"day": 15,
"timestamp": "2026-09-18T22:19:26.439899Z",
"date": "Session 15 ยท Sep 18, 2026 ยท 18:19 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's 15-session tracking closes at -10.83% from the $109.74 entry, ending at $97.86. The path reached +1.50% at best and -11.44% at worst. Fresh closure evidence records $97.86 from the provider, a $98.50 post-market quote (+0.65%) and 1.61 times average volume. Current session-average price, RSI, EMA trend and 52-week position readings are unavailable. The early compression thesis never reached its $112.70 trigger and remained below the published $105.77 floor after the break. Public tracking ends at session 15.",
"price": 98.34,
"pct": -10.39,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.39,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.39,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.13,
"session_day": 15,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.34 ยท -10.39% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": true,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-fadffd5fa3bb33901ab60e8dca9bd4dfd7c9158faede5343b6194a45142e236d",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-28T20:15:00Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-17T22:21:32.763302Z",
"date": "Session 14 ยท Sep 17, 2026 ยท 18:21 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss widened 0.33 points to -10.52% after a 0.09% rise to USD 98.19. Price is 0.35% above VWAP on 0.80x average volume, but distribution, no confirmed structure and a 7.12-point 20-session gap versus Consumer Defensive leave the compressed-base thesis below confirmation; it remains below the published 105.77 floor and 112.70 trigger.",
"price": 98.19,
"pct": -10.52,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.52,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.52,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.39,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.19 ยท -10.52% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-17T20:30:16Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-17T15:24:49.820891Z",
"date": "Session 14 ยท Sep 17, 2026 ยท 11:24 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss narrowed 0.77 points to -10.19% after a 0.53% rise to USD 98.62. Price is only 0.06% above VWAP on 0.06x average volume, with distribution, a downward EMA order and no confirmed structure. The compressed-base thesis has improved from its latest note, but it remains below the published 105.77 floor and far from the 112.70 trigger.",
"price": 98.62,
"pct": -10.19,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.13,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.13,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.81,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.62 ยท -10.13% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-17T14:10:17.742927Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-09-16T20:27:37.807909Z",
"date": "Session 13 ยท Sep 16, 2026 ยท 16:27 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss widened 0.67 points to -10.96% after a 0.95% fall to .74. Price finished 0.59% below VWAP on 0.53x average volume, with no confirmed structure; the compressed-breakout thesis remains unconfirmed and below the published base floor.",
"price": 97.735,
"pct": -10.96,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.94,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.94,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.66,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$97.73 ยท -10.94% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-16T19:21:13.018409Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-09-16T14:49:00.051064Z",
"date": "Session 13 ยท Sep 16, 2026 ยท 10:49 NYSE",
"text": "KMB tracked loss is 10,29% as the latest capture moved 0,22% to USD 98,46, with price below VWAP on 0,08 times time-adjusted participation. The tracked result widened 0,21 points, but The compressed breakout case remains unconfirmed with price still short of its trigger.",
"price": 98.455,
"pct": -10.29,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.28,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.28,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.2,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.45 ยท -10.28% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-16T14:06:40.306426Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-09-15T21:47:11.369929Z",
"date": "Session 12 ยท Sep 15, 2026 ยท 17:47 NYSE",
"text": "KMB held close to the prior note, with the tracked loss widening 0.42 points to -10.08% as price slipped 0.42% to USD 98.68. Trading above VWAP does not yet repair the compressed-breakout case: participation is modest, structure is unconfirmed and the stock remains well short of its trigger.",
"price": 98.675,
"pct": -10.08,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.08,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.08,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.62,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.67 ยท -10.08% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $98.90 (+0.23% vs regular close) ยท Sep 15, 2026 ยท 17:20 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 98.9,
"ext_pct": 0.23,
"as_of": "2026-09-15T21:20:31Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-15T21:20:31Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-09-15T19:27:19.871047Z",
"date": "Session 12 ยท Sep 15, 2026 ยท 15:27 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's current tape points to deterioration: it moved -1,10% to $98,00, with VWAP at 97,79 and volume at 1,24 times its three-month average. The tracked return is -10,50%, versus 0,59 points since the previous public note; Consumer Defensive-relative wording remains supportive with a -8,23 point gap versus Consumer Defensive, so the published thesis is not upgraded beyond what this move supports.",
"price": 98.0,
"pct": -10.5,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.7,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.7,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.25,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.00 ยท -10.70% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-15T19:21:00.581079Z",
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},
{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-09-15T16:22:21.703112Z",
"date": "Session 12 ยท Sep 15, 2026 ยท 12:22 NYSE",
"text": "KMB tracked loss widened 1.39 points to -11.09% as the current capture fell 1.38% to $97.72, essentially at VWAP on 0.55 times average volume. The price location is less damaged than the prior note, but Consumer Defensive-relative weakness, distribution, no confirmed structure and a move farther from the $112.70 trigger leave the compressed-breakout case unrepaired.",
"price": 97.72,
"pct": -11.09,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.95,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.95,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.25,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$97.72 ยท -10.95% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-15T15:52:36.865021Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-09-14T23:33:50.255927Z",
"date": "Session 11 ยท Sep 14, 2026 ยท 19:33 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss widened to -9.70% despite a 0.96% rise to $99.09; the latest capture fell below VWAP on above-average participation and finished without confirmed structure. Distribution and the stock's deep underperformance versus Consumer Defensive leave the compressed-breakout case unrepaired below the published base floor.",
"price": 99.09,
"pct": -9.7,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.7,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.7,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$99.09 ยท -9.70% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $100.00 (+0.92% vs regular close) ยท Sep 14, 2026 ยท 19:16 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 100.0,
"ext_pct": 0.92,
"as_of": "2026-09-14T23:16:19Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-14T23:16:19Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-09-14T22:40:28.443758Z",
"date": "Session 11 ยท Sep 14, 2026 ยท 18:40 NYSE",
"text": "KMB tracked loss widened 1.20 points to -9.70% even as the latest capture rose 0.96% to $99.09, 1.11% below VWAP on 1.43x average volume. Consumer Defensive relative weakness, fading participation and no confirmed structure leave the compressed-breakout case unrepaired.",
"price": 99.09,
"pct": -9.7,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.7,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.7,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.17,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$99.09 ยท -9.70% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-14T20:04:03Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-09-14T14:57:02.706597Z",
"date": "Session 11 ยท Sep 14, 2026 ยท 10:57 NYSE",
"text": "KMB tracked loss narrowed 2.06 points to -8.50% as the current capture rose 2.27% to $100.38, 0.48% above VWAP on 0.32 times average volume. The stock finished near the top of its intraday range, but distribution, no confirmed structure and a price still below the $105.77 base floor keep the $112.70 breakout thesis without repair.",
"price": 100.38,
"pct": -8.5,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -8.53,
"return_vs_base_pct": -8.53,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.03,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$100.38 ยท -8.53% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-14T14:05:55.081234Z",
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-09-11T22:10:14.427073Z",
"date": "Session 10 ยท Sep 11, 2026 ยท 18:10 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss widened 0.18 points to -10.56% as the latest capture slipped 0.34% to $98.15, essentially at the $98.18 VWAP reference, on 2.00 times average volume. Distribution persists, no structure is confirmed and the published $112.70 trigger remains distant, so the compressed-breakout thesis still has no evidence of repair.",
"price": 98.15,
"pct": -10.56,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.56,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.56,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.22,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.15 ยท -10.56% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-11T21:28:35Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-09-11T19:50:43.485906Z",
"date": "Session 10 ยท Sep 11, 2026 ยท 15:50 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss narrowed 0.14 points to -10.38% as price was nearly flat at $98.39 and moved above VWAP. Activity was 1.54 times average, but distribution persists, no structure is confirmed and the $112.70 trigger remains distant; the compressed-breakout thesis still has no evidence of repair.",
"price": 98.39,
"pct": -10.38,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.34,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.34,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.72,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.39 ยท -10.34% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-11T19:21:33.380908Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-09-11T14:46:33.349505Z",
"date": "Session 10 ยท Sep 11, 2026 ยท 10:46 NYSE",
"text": "KMB tracked loss widened 0.26 points to -10.52% as the stock fell 0.89% to $97.61, sat 0.43% below VWAP near the lower edge of its range and showed no confirmed structure. The compressed-breakout question is under more pressure: the 112.70 trigger remains distant, the base is not repaired, and current weakness still carries distribution rather than a clean expansion.",
"price": 97.605,
"pct": -10.52,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -11.06,
"return_vs_base_pct": -11.06,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.8,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$97.61 ยท -11.06% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-11T14:06:25.411176Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-09-10T21:45:09.009908Z",
"date": "Session 9 ยท Sep 10, 2026 ยท 17:45 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss was unchanged at -10.26% since the previous public note. The stock slipped 0.22% to USD 98.48, sat 0.51% below VWAP near the bottom of its range on 2.49 times average volume, and showed no confirmed structure; accelerating participation on weakness leaves the compressed-breakout thesis without evidence of repair.",
"price": 98.48,
"pct": -10.26,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.26,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.26,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.13,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.48 ยท -10.26% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $99.05 (+0.58% vs regular close) ยท Sep 10, 2026 ยท 17:25 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 99.05,
"ext_pct": 0.58,
"as_of": "2026-09-10T21:25:26Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:25:26Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-09-10T20:00:28.418065Z",
"date": "Session 9 ยท Sep 10, 2026 ยท 16:00 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss widened 0.48 points to -10.26% since the previous public note. The latest capture slipped 0.36% to USD 98.34, 0.51% below VWAP near the bottom of its range on 1.62 times average volume with participation accelerating; Consumer Defensive-relative performance is still negative, and the compressed breakout thesis remains without confirmed structure or a reclaimed trigger.",
"price": 98.34,
"pct": -10.26,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.39,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.39,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.25,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.34 ยท -10.39% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T19:21:10.275300Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-09-10T14:49:43.824803Z",
"date": "Session 9 ยท Sep 10, 2026 ยท 10:49 NYSE",
"text": "KMB tracked loss narrowed 0.28 points to -9.78% since the last public note, but the latest capture slipped 0.09% to USD 98.62, 0.23% below VWAP in the lower part of its range on 0.12 times average volume. The downward trend, decelerating participation and absent structure leave the base floor unreclaimed and the early breakout question unresolved.",
"price": 98.615,
"pct": -9.78,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.14,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.14,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.08,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.61 ยท -10.14% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T14:06:15.609526Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-09T22:21:26.640922Z",
"date": "Session 8 ยท Sep 9, 2026 ยท 18:21 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss narrowed from -10.26% to -10.06% since the last public note, but the latest capture fell 4.11% to .70 below VWAP in the lower part of its range on 2.02x average volume. The downward EMA sequence and distribution keep the .77 base floor unreclaimed and the .70 trigger absent, so the original early thesis remains under direct failure pressure.",
"price": 98.7,
"pct": -10.06,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.06,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.06,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.04,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.70 ยท -10.06% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-09T21:45:46Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-09T20:02:39.775249Z",
"date": "Session 8 ยท Sep 9, 2026 ยท 16:02 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss widened 1.93 points to -10.26% as the latest capture fell 4.15% to USD 98.66 on 1.32x average volume. Price is 0.31% below VWAP with no confirmed structure, a downward EMA sequence and distribution; the 105.77 base floor has not been reclaimed and the 112.70 trigger remains absent, so the original early thesis is under direct failure pressure.",
"price": 98.66,
"pct": -10.26,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.1,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.1,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.68,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$98.66 ยท -10.10% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": true,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-6ea1b4aabd5e77bc03db544796cf29463bf402a55661f6fde6fc9e4ecb4f9ade",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-09T19:21:49.561649Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-09T14:45:35.926181Z",
"date": "Session 8 ยท Sep 9, 2026 ยท 10:45 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss widened 2.12 points to -8.33% as the latest capture fell 2.36% to USD 100.50. Price was 0.38% above VWAP on 0.22x average volume but remains below the 105.77 base floor, with no structure and distribution; the mature-base thesis lost support before its 112.70 trigger, while 20-session performance still trails Consumer Defensive.",
"price": 100.5,
"pct": -8.33,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -8.42,
"return_vs_base_pct": -8.42,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.21,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$100.50 ยท -8.42% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-09T14:06:47.281893Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-08T21:47:57.807259Z",
"date": "Session 7 ยท Sep 8, 2026 ยท 17:47 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss widened 0.68 points to -6.21% as price fell 1.93% to $102.93, below the $105.77 base floor and with 0.84x average volume. The mature-base thesis has lost its structural support before the $112.70 trigger was reached; no confirmed structure or expansion evidence appears, and twenty-session performance still trails Consumer Defensive.",
"price": 102.93,
"pct": -6.21,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -6.21,
"return_vs_base_pct": -6.21,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.63,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$102.93 ยท -6.21% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $103.25 (+0.31% vs regular close) ยท Sep 8, 2026 ยท 17:22 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 103.25,
"ext_pct": 0.31,
"as_of": "2026-09-08T21:22:37Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-ed1424bf6fa6eb83dd4425d78cc9e24f4651ea505049191eb3b31c9ca444655f",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-08T21:22:37Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-08T19:47:48.822937Z",
"date": "Session 7 ยท Sep 8, 2026 ยท 15:47 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss narrowed 0.08 points to -5.53% as price fell 1.28% to $103.62 but held just above VWAP. That small repair does not recover the $105.77 base floor or approach the $112.70 trigger: volume is 0.56x average, no structure is confirmed and twenty-session performance trails Consumer Defensive by 3.10 points.",
"price": 103.62,
"pct": -5.53,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.58,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.58,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.12,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$103.62 ยท -5.58% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-08T19:22:03.550453Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-08T14:42:21.827699Z",
"date": "Session 7 ยท Sep 8, 2026 ยท 10:42 NYSE",
"text": "KMB tracked loss widened 1.25 points to -5.61% at session 7 after the latest capture fell 1.41% to $103.48, below VWAP and the $105.77 base floor. Volume is 0.12 times average, no structure is confirmed and the $112.70 trigger remains untouched, so the compressed setup is under pressure rather than expanding.",
"price": 103.48,
"pct": -5.61,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.7,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.7,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.34,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$103.48 ยท -5.70% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-08T14:06:19.550837Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-09-04T22:02:24.280205Z",
"date": "Session 6 ยท Sep 4, 2026 ยท 18:02 NYSE",
"text": "KMB tracked loss widened 0.35 points to -4.36% as the latest capture fell 1.60% to $104.96, 1.23% below VWAP and near the bottom of its range on 1.05 times average volume. Price is also below the $105.77 base floor while the $112.70 trigger remains untouched, so the early setup has produced pressure rather than expansion evidence.",
"price": 104.96,
"pct": -4.36,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.36,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.36,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.35,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$104.96 ยท -4.36% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $105.25 (+0.28% vs regular close) ยท Sep 4, 2026 ยท 17:36 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 105.25,
"ext_pct": 0.28,
"as_of": "2026-09-04T21:36:05Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-04T21:36:05Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-09-04T20:02:42.340506Z",
"date": "Session 6 ยท Sep 4, 2026 ยท 16:02 NYSE",
"text": "KMB tracked loss widened 1.01 points to -4.01% as the latest capture fell 1.25% to $105.34, below VWAP and near the bottom of its range. The $112.70 trigger remains untouched and price is below the $105.77 base floor on 0.71 times average volume, so the early compression thesis has not produced expansion evidence and is now under greater pressure.",
"price": 105.34,
"pct": -4.01,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.01,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.01,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.02,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$105.34 ยท -4.01% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-04T19:21:46.989147Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-09-04T14:36:35.324005Z",
"date": "Session 6 ยท Sep 4, 2026 ยท 10:36 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss widened 1.51 points to -3.00% as the latest capture slipped 0.20% to .46, only marginally above VWAP and well below the .70 trigger on 0.08 times average volume. The mature compression and intact .77 floor keep the early setup alive, but this is still anticipation without expansion evidence.",
"price": 106.46,
"pct": -3.0,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.99,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.99,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.42,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$106.46 ยท -2.99% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-18f679fafb3a2ef84d98d1c087a35af6ac269ad467a72cd69e1a22b2e71078df",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-04T14:06:17.385242Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-09-03T20:17:00.731370Z",
"date": "Session 5 ยท Sep 3, 2026 ยท 16:17 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss narrowed 0.15 points to -1.49% as the latest capture fell 1.16% to $108.02 and remained 0.41% below VWAP in the lower quarter of its range. The mature compression has not produced a confirmed structure or a move through the $112.70 trigger; participation is decelerating at 0.52 times average volume, so the early thesis remains unproven.",
"price": 108.02,
"pct": -1.49,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.57,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.57,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.21,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$108.02 ยท -1.57% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-03T19:21:52.173032Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-09-03T14:55:50.859317Z",
"date": "Session 5 ยท Sep 3, 2026 ยท 10:55 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss widened 1.23 points to -1.64% in the latest capture, with price down 0.96% to 108.245 and below VWAP in the lower quarter of the range on only 0.10 times average volume. The mature compression remains a defined early setup, but there is no confirmed structure, no breakout through the 112.70 trigger and no participation evidence for an expansion; the thesis remains unproven.",
"price": 108.245,
"pct": -1.64,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.36,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.36,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.95,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$108.25 ยท -1.36% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-03T14:06:17.841920Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-09-02T22:21:33.912502Z",
"date": "Session 4 ยท Sep 2, 2026 ยท 18:21 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss narrowed 1.50 points to -0.41% after the latest capture rose 2.06% to .29. Price is 0.84% above VWAP near the upper range on 0.98 times average volume, but remains below the .70 trigger with no confirmed structure; the compressed-base early thesis is intact, but no breakout confirmation has appeared.",
"price": 109.29,
"pct": -0.41,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.41,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.41,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.68,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$109.29 ยท -0.41% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-02T21:25:36Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-09-02T16:10:00.060526Z",
"date": "Session 4 ยท Sep 2, 2026 ยท 12:10 NYSE",
"text": "KMB tracked loss improved 0.51 points to -1.91% after the latest capture rose 0.35% to 107.45. Price remains just 0.06% below VWAP on 0.18 times average volume, with no confirmed structure and a 4.38-point Consumer Defensive-relative deficit; the 112.70 Early Try trigger remains unmet.",
"price": 107.45,
"pct": -1.91,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.09,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.09,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.33,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$107.45 ยท -2.09% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-02T14:44:54.049824Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-09-01T22:11:59.668439Z",
"date": "Session 3 ยท Sep 1, 2026 ยท 18:11 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss remains -2.42% as the latest capture fell 0.81% to $107.08. Price is 0.53% below VWAP in the lower part of its range on 0.89x average volume; the Consumer Defensive backdrop helps, but no confirmed structure is visible and the $112.70 trigger remains unmet, so the anticipatory setup is still unconfirmed.",
"price": 107.08,
"pct": -2.42,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.42,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.42,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.09,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$107.08 ยท -2.42% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-01T21:43:08Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-09-01T21:06:02.277795Z",
"date": "Session 3 ยท Sep 1, 2026 ยท 17:06 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss widened 1.31 points to -2.29% as the capture fell 0.71% and sat 0.44% below VWAP near the lower fifth of its range. The Consumer Defensive backdrop is supportive and flow is neutral, but decelerating participation, no confirmed structure and the 112.70 trigger still unmet keep this an early anticipation.",
"price": 107.181,
"pct": -2.42,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.33,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.33,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.08,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$107.18 ยท -2.33% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-01T19:21:29.772075Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-09-01T16:20:03.517138Z",
"date": "Session 3 ยท Sep 1, 2026 ยท 12:20 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked loss narrowed 0.65 points to -0.98% as the current capture rose 0.38%, but price was only 0.02% above VWAP near mid-range on 0.08x average volume. A supportive Consumer Defensive backdrop and neutral flow leave the base intact, yet decelerating participation, no confirmed structure and the 112.70 trigger still unmet keep this an early anticipation.",
"price": 108.365,
"pct": -0.98,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.25,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.25,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.38,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$108.36 ยท -1.25% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-01T14:13:30.142689Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-08-31T22:10:13.492890Z",
"date": "Session 2 ยท Aug 31, 2026 ยท 18:10 NYSE",
"text": "KMB slipped 0.06 points to -1.63%, losing VWAP and sitting in the lower half of its range despite 1.11x average volume. The base has not broken out, and the combination of decelerating participation and a sector headwind leaves the early compression thesis in anticipation rather than confirmation.",
"price": 107.95,
"pct": -1.63,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.63,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.63,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.23,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$107.95 ยท -1.63% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-31T21:31:25Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-08-31T20:06:31.750493Z",
"date": "Session 2 ยท Aug 31, 2026 ยท 16:06 NYSE",
"text": "KMB slipped 0.24 points to -1.57%, moving 0.13% below VWAP near mid-range on 0.60x average volume. Accumulation and a narrow base keep the early setup intact, but the 112.70 trigger remains unmet and no confirmed structure has formed; this is still anticipation, not breakout confirmation.",
"price": 108.2,
"pct": -1.57,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.4,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.4,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.19,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$108.20 ยท -1.40% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-31T19:21:03.615633Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-08-31T15:00:42.511704Z",
"date": "Session 2 ยท Aug 31, 2026 ยท 11:00 NYSE",
"text": "KMB slipped to -1.33% after a 1.04% decline to 108.41, despite remaining 0.21% above VWAP on 0.09x average volume. The early setup has not reached its 112.70 trigger, so light participation does not confirm a compression breakout.",
"price": 108.41,
"pct": -1.33,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.21,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.21,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.04,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$108.41 ยท -1.21% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-31T14:06:24.388513Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-08-29T05:57:30.854906Z",
"date": "Session 1 ยท Aug 29, 2026 ยท 01:57 NYSE",
"text": "KMB tracked result slipped 1.23 points to -0.17% as the current capture fell 0.39% to 109.55 on 0.60x average volume. The early structure remains near the 109.69 EMA reference and the 112.70 trigger is still ahead, but light participation and a mildly negative quote do not confirm the compression breakout.",
"price": 109.55,
"pct": -0.17,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.17,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.17,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.36,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$109.55 ยท -0.17% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-29T05:01:43.976820Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-08-28T15:33:29.650267Z",
"date": "Session 1 ยท Aug 28, 2026 ยท 11:33 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's tracked result improved 0.84 points to +1.06% as the early capture gained 0.97% to 111.05 and held 0.12% above VWAP, with the early structure intact. The narrow base is approaching the 112.70 trigger, but 0.04x average volume is far too light to call this breakout confirmation.",
"price": 111.049,
"pct": 1.06,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 1.19,
"return_vs_base_pct": 1.19,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.97,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$111.05 ยท +1.19% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-28T14:07:04.955352Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 0,
"timestamp": "2026-08-27T21:54:56.162814Z",
"date": "Session 0 ยท Aug 27, 2026 ยท 17:54 NYSE",
"text": "KMB's first capture is nearly flat at +0.22% tracked return: price eased 0.33% to 109.98 but held 0.17% above VWAP with its early structure intact. The narrow base remains near the 112.70 trigger, yet 0.81x average volume and decelerating flow provide no breakout confirmation.",
"price": 109.98,
"pct": 0.22,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 0.22,
"return_vs_base_pct": 0.22,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.22,
"session_day": 0,
"reference_price": 109.74,
"reference_text": "$109.98 ยท +0.22% from $109.74 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-08-27T20:52:51Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
}
],
"observed_outcomes": [
{
"label": "+1 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": -0.17,
"reference_text": "-0.17% from $109.74 base",
"price": 109.55,
"updated": "Aug 28, 2026 ยท 17:06 NYSE",
"mfe": 1.49,
"mae": -0.2
},
{
"label": "+5 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": -1.63,
"reference_text": "-1.63% from $109.74 base",
"price": 107.95,
"updated": "Sep 3, 2026 ยท 17:06 NYSE",
"mfe": 1.5,
"mae": -2.72
},
{
"label": "+10 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": -10.56,
"reference_text": "-10.56% from $109.74 base",
"price": 98.15,
"updated": "Sep 11, 2026 ยท 17:05 NYSE",
"mfe": 1.5,
"mae": -11.34
},
{
"label": "+15 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": -10.83,
"reference_text": "-10.83% from $109.74 base",
"price": 97.86,
"updated": "Sep 18, 2026 ยท 17:05 NYSE",
"mfe": 1.5,
"mae": -11.44
}
],
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{
"day": 0,
"timestamp": "2026-08-27T21:54:56.162814Z",
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"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-08-31T15:00:42.511704Z",
"comparison": {
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"timestamp": "2026-08-31T20:06:31.750493Z",
"comparison": {
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