ESTC episode 20260828_ESTC_MIDDAY
Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.
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"episode_id": "20260828_ESTC_MIDDAY",
"episode_url": "https://trydingday.com/data/agents/v1/episodes/20260828_ESTC_MIDDAY.html",
"public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/coverage/estc/2026-08-28/midday/",
"published_at": "2026-08-28T18:26:11.269063Z",
"updated_at": "2026-09-21T22:17:03.099494Z",
"lifecycle": {
"tracking_status": "closed",
"active_for_tracking": false,
"stage": "closed"
},
"instrument": {
"type": "equity",
"symbol": "ESTC",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"name": "Elastic N.V."
},
"technical_reference": {
"status": "ok",
"reference_price": 97.75,
"model_downside_reference": 89.72,
"model_upside_scenario_1": 105.78,
"model_upside_scenario_2": 113.8,
"atr_14": 5.35,
"method": "reference_price_plus_minus_atr14"
},
"public_content": {
"date": "August 28, 2026",
"generated_at": "2026-08-28T18:26:11.269063Z",
"original_published_at": null,
"session_tag": "midday",
"label": "Market coverage",
"try_label": "Try of the Day",
"public_status": "Try of the Day",
"why_today": "Elastic is selected after a reported earnings-and-outlook reset aligned with a high-participation breakout, while the intraday fade remains the key unresolved test.",
"entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: Elastic's reported earnings and outlook reset can support stronger behavior over the next 15 market sessions if post-gap participation holds; continued failure to retain the event structure would invalidate the near-term continuation case. Invalidation boundary: A sustained failure to retain the post-earnings event structure after the intraday retracement would invalidate the near-term continuation case.",
"reference_price": 97.75,
"scanner": {
"price": 97.75,
"reference": 97.75,
"score": 5,
"score_version": "v0_legacy_reconstructed",
"change": 16.73,
"volume": 5024140,
"average_volume": 2166039,
"volume_ratio": 2.32,
"rsi": 74.61,
"ema_trend": "85.48 > 80.08 > 72.72",
"position_52w": 91.09,
"atr_14": 5.35,
"vwap": 101.87,
"vwap_state": "below",
"vwap_distance_pct": -4.04,
"vwap_reading": {
"price": 101.87,
"state": "below",
"distance_pct": -4.04
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"range_position": 0.139,
"gap_pct": 0.0,
"relative_strength": {
"excess_pct": 16.24,
"index": "SPY",
"index_chg_pct": 0.49,
"status": "normal"
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"volume_percentile": {
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"percentile": 95.3,
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"status": "healthy"
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"status": "strong",
"z": 3.06
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"sector_breadth": {
"chg_pct": -0.14,
"etf": "XLK",
"status": "neutral"
},
"sentiment": null,
"sentiment_score": null,
"earnings_warning": {
"days_away": null,
"earnings_date": null,
"has_earnings_soon": false,
"status": "clear"
},
"options_snapshot": null,
"extended_hours": {
"ext_pct": null,
"market_state": "REGULAR",
"phase": "regular",
"post_market_pct": null,
"pre_market_pct": null,
"status": "none"
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"coiled_spring": {
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"components": {},
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"status": "not_evaluated"
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"short_pct_float": 6.97,
"days_to_cover": 3.29,
"catalyst": "Gapping stocks in Friday's session",
"sector": "Technology",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"sec_signal": "NO_RECENT_FORM4_SIGNAL"
},
"levels": {
"reference": 97.75,
"downside": 89.72,
"upside_1": 105.78,
"upside_2": 113.8
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"review": {
"score": 5,
"status": "Majority with dissent",
"summary": "Elastic is selected after a reported earnings-and-outlook reset aligned with a high-participation breakout, while the intraday fade remains the key unresolved test.",
"views": [
{
"name": "Elena Vartanyan",
"role": "independent statistical auditor",
"icon": "🎯",
"view": "The shared market cut is not a tailwind: the fresh intraday breadth proxy shows 114 advancers and 184 decliners, or net breadth of -23.33%, with complete 300-name coverage. That makes individual evidence carry more weight and keeps confidence below a broad-risk-on reading.",
"reasoning": "Applying the required order, ESTC clears the Try of the Day standard. The countercase is bounded and explicit: the opening gap faded below VWAP in a negative-breadth, higher-rate environment. That is a confidence limit, not a reason to demote a concrete earnings-led thesis to Raw or Caught."
},
{
"name": "Marcus Feld",
"role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
"icon": "🦊",
"view": "My first pass separates mechanisms from moves. ESTC has a reportable earnings reset; FTCI has revenue growth paired with a cash-covenant issue; SOLS has a terminated merger; and several other gainers are only described as gap or mover stories. The information quality is uneven.",
"reasoning": "ESTC's candidate-specific follow-up resolves the material question behind the gap: public reporting describes first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue growth, an earnings beat, and better-than-expected next-quarter guidance. That is more testable than a generic mover label and links the price response to the operating story."
},
{
"name": "Kenji Osei",
"role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
"icon": "🧠",
"view": "The sealed comparison is internally usable: the daily case fingerprint is fixed, every chart family was supplied, and the ESTC episode has an unambiguous symbol and episode identity. The options rail is secondary and cannot be expanded into unprovided derivatives claims.",
"reasoning": "The external check was narrow and documented. It confirmed the ESTC reporting mechanism and the day-first macro check confirmed a rates-sensitive market, but no external quote displaced the sealed metrics. That preserves the packet as the factual base and keeps the new source in its proper corroborating role."
},
{
"name": "Priya Nandakumar",
"role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
"icon": "🛡️",
"view": "The main risk is that the strongest gaps were sold after the open. ESTC, AFRM, and GAP are all below their sealed intraday VWAP readings, while rate expectations hardened during the day. A selected case must survive that countercase without pretending the fade did not happen.",
"reasoning": "AFRM is the closest challenge because it has a stronger volume ratio and a favorable eight-session model probability, but its sealed price was 83.38 against 85.52 VWAP after a violent gap. GAP also has a sizable move, yet its intraday raw score is more negative. ESTC wins the mechanism comparison, not a claim of lower volatility."
},
{
"name": "Nate Brooks",
"role": "market structure and timing analyst",
"icon": "📈",
"view": "The chart pack gives ESTC the cleanest medium-term setup among the fresh movers: a six-month advance, price near the top of its rising channel before the gap, and a high-volume break higher. The five-day view then shows a retracement from the opening impulse, so continuation is the unresolved test.",
"reasoning": "IDYA's trend is impressive but its daily participation is thin and it closed the comparison day lower. MAA has the top model rank while trading below its EMA reference. ESTC is the only leading alternative where a fresh fundamental reset and a high-participation breakout point in the same direction, even though the close-to-VWAP relationship is adverse."
}
],
"conviction": {
"status_phrase": "majority-with-dissent",
"basis": "Support — corroborated earnings mechanism, strong sealed participation, and established uptrend; Counter-case — the intraday fade below VWAP and negative breadth challenge immediate continuity; Unresolved — the next sessions must show whether participation holds in a higher-rate backdrop.",
"risk": "",
"resolution_pct": 63.0,
"counter_case_pct": 22.0,
"unresolved_pct": 15.0
},
"context_roundtable": {
"mode": "coffee",
"status": "partial",
"consulted_voice_ids": [
"elena",
"marcus",
"kenji",
"priya",
"nate"
],
"summary": "The session was selective rather than broadly risk-on: rates and weak breadth kept the room focused on whether company-specific evidence could hold after a sharp opening move.",
"long_read": "The market context was restrictive, with negative breadth and a rates-sensitive backdrop. The conversation therefore treated Elastic's earnings and outlook as a company-specific test rather than a broad-market endorsement. Its post-gap retracement remained the live condition for follow-through. The bounded X cursor for the current window contained no usable posts, so no X material is represented.",
"transcript": [
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "Negative -23.33% breadth means this is a selective result, not a broad-market endorsement."
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "ESTC's thesis is tied to disclosed operating results and outlook, so follow-up should test business confirmation rather than repeat the gap narrative."
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "The below-VWAP retracement and higher-rate backdrop remain explicit risk boundaries for the public follow-up."
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "The chart structure supports the selection, while retention of the event breakout remains the visible continuity question."
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "The final narrative preserves the sealed identity, metrics, and provenance while separately identifying the narrow public web corroboration."
}
],
"source_urls": [
"https://apnews.com/article/0a655f1c042b059279343443d5802907",
"https://au.investing.com/news/economy-news/ratehike-expectations-rise-on-warsh-speech-at-jackson-hole-4621864"
]
},
"context_roundtable_sources": []
},
"updates": [
{
"day": 15,
"timestamp": "2026-09-21T22:17:03.099494Z",
"date": "Session 15 · Sep 21, 2026 · 18:17 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's 15-session tracking closes at -8.99% from the $98.57 entry, ending at $89.71. The path reached +3.91% at best and -16.66% at worst. Fresh closure evidence records $89.71 from the provider, an $89.71 post-market quote (+0.03%) and 0.53 times average volume. Current session-average price, RSI, EMA trend and 52-week position readings are unavailable. The earnings-and-outlook reset remained a real company event, but the post-gap continuation thesis never regained confirmed structure; the final price remained below both the $98.57 entry and the $97.75 publication reference. Public tracking ends at session 15.",
"price": 89.24,
"pct": -9.47,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -8.71,
"return_vs_base_pct": -8.71,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.33,
"session_day": 15,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$89.24 · -8.71% from $97.75 base",
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"relevant": true,
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"price_as_of": "2026-08-28T21:19:59Z",
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},
{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-18T22:28:28.890618Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Sep 18, 2026 · 18:28 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss edged 0.04 points wider to -11.78% as price fell 2.26% to 86.96, below 87.92 VWAP and near the bottom of its range on 1.41x average volume. The earnings-and-outlook reset remains traceable, but distribution and no confirmed structure leave durable continuation unproven.",
"price": 86.96,
"pct": -11.78,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -11.04,
"return_vs_base_pct": -11.04,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$86.96 · -11.04% from $97.75 base",
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"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-18T21:05:00Z",
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{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-18T20:14:11.217485Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Sep 18, 2026 · 16:14 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss widened to -11.74% as the latest capture fell 2.26% to 86.96 on 0.61x average volume. The earnings-and-outlook reset remains a traceable company event, but no structure is confirmed and the bounce has not become durable continuation.",
"price": 86.955,
"pct": -11.74,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -11.04,
"return_vs_base_pct": -11.04,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.07,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$86.95 · -11.04% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-18T19:21:09.426587Z",
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{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-18T14:41:41.156457Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Sep 18, 2026 · 10:41 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss widened 1.13 points to -10.87% as the latest capture fell 1.09% to $88.00 and moved 0.52% below VWAP on 0.14x average volume. The earnings-and-outlook reset still has a traceable company event behind it, but distribution and a 0.36-point sector-relative gap show the bounce has not become durable continuation.",
"price": 88.0,
"pct": -10.87,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.97,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.97,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.99,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$88.00 · -9.97% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-18T14:06:06.717745Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-09-17T22:21:33.898631Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Sep 17, 2026 · 18:21 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss widened 0.33 points to -9.74% even as the latest capture rose 4.63% to USD 88.97 and held 0.76% above VWAP. No structure is confirmed and participation is 0.86x average; the 20-session return is only 1.87% versus Technology at 2.41%, so the earnings-and-outlook reset shows a price bounce, not restored continuation.",
"price": 88.97,
"pct": -9.74,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -8.98,
"return_vs_base_pct": -8.98,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.19,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$88.97 · -8.98% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-17T20:15:00Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-09-17T14:35:39.572504Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Sep 17, 2026 · 10:35 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss improved 4.78 points to -9.41% as the latest capture rose 3.27% to $87.81 and moved 1.48% above VWAP. The earnings-and-outlook reset remains a traceable company event, but 0.10x average volume, distribution and no confirmed structure make this price repair—not proof that post-gap continuation has returned.",
"price": 87.81,
"pct": -9.41,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.17,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.17,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.49,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$87.81 · -10.17% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": true,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-17T14:10:17.742927Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-09-16T20:27:39.727948Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Sep 16, 2026 · 16:27 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss widened 0.83 points to -14.19% after a 0.89% fall to .40. Price finished 1.25% below VWAP on 0.50x average volume with no confirmed structure; the earnings-and-outlook reset remains stalled rather than repaired.",
"price": 84.4,
"pct": -14.19,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -13.66,
"return_vs_base_pct": -13.66,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.8,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$84.40 · -13.66% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
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"relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-16T19:21:13.018409Z",
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{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-09-16T14:49:02.348043Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Sep 16, 2026 · 10:49 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC tracked loss is 13,36% as the latest capture moved 0,02% to USD 85,18, with price above VWAP on 0,07 times time-adjusted participation. The tracked result improved 0,24 points, but The earnings-and-outlook reset is stalled rather than repaired.",
"price": 85.175,
"pct": -13.36,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -12.86,
"return_vs_base_pct": -12.86,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.02,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$85.17 · -12.86% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-16T14:06:40.306426Z",
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},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-09-15T21:47:16.007714Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Sep 15, 2026 · 17:47 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC tracked loss improved only 0.10 points to -13.60% while the latest price was effectively flat at USD 85.16 and below VWAP on 0.64 times volume. The earnings-and-outlook reset remains identifiable, but weak participation and no confirmed structure make this a stalled rebound, not a repaired post-gap thesis.",
"price": 85.16,
"pct": -13.6,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -12.88,
"return_vs_base_pct": -12.88,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.04,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$85.16 · -12.88% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-15T20:42:57Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-09-15T19:27:19.871047Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Sep 15, 2026 · 15:27 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's current tape points to repair: it moved 0,10% to $85,19, with VWAP at 85,95 and volume at 0,42 times its three-month average. The tracked return is -13,50%, versus -1,74 points since the previous public note; Technology-relative wording remains headwind with a 5,63 point gap versus Technology, so the published thesis is not upgraded beyond what this move supports.",
"price": 85.195,
"pct": -13.5,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -12.84,
"return_vs_base_pct": -12.84,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.48,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$85.19 · -12.84% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-15T19:21:00.581079Z",
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{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-09-15T16:10:36.028693Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Sep 15, 2026 · 12:10 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC tracked loss narrowed 1.90 points to -11.76% as the current capture rose 1.81% to $86.65, 1.58% above VWAP and near the top of its range. The earnings-and-outlook reset remains a specific company event, and Technology-relative performance is still positive over 20 sessions, but participation is only 0.17 times average, distribution persists and no structure is confirmed; the rebound tests the damaged post-gap thesis without repairing it.",
"price": 86.65,
"pct": -11.76,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -11.36,
"return_vs_base_pct": -11.36,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.57,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$86.65 · -11.36% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
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{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-09-14T23:34:28.985476Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Sep 14, 2026 · 19:34 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss narrowed to -13.66% as the latest capture rose 2.06% to $85.11, above VWAP and high in its range on roughly average participation. Technology-relative resilience improves the immediate test, but distribution and no confirmed structure keep the earnings-and-outlook case at modest stabilization rather than repaired continuation.",
"price": 85.11,
"pct": -13.66,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -12.93,
"return_vs_base_pct": -12.93,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.02,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$85.11 · -12.93% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $85.11 (0.00% vs regular close) · Sep 14, 2026 · 19:18 NYSE"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 85.11,
"ext_pct": 0.0,
"as_of": "2026-09-14T23:18:28Z",
"persisted": false
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"relevant": false,
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"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-14T23:18:28Z",
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{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-09-14T22:40:17.976384Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Sep 14, 2026 · 18:40 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC tracked loss narrowed 1.45 points to -13.68% as the latest capture rose 2.04% to $85.09, 0.33% above VWAP on 0.88x average volume. Technology-relative resilience improves the immediate test, but no confirmed structure means the earnings-and-outlook case remains a modest stabilization rather than repaired continuation.",
"price": 85.09,
"pct": -13.66,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -12.95,
"return_vs_base_pct": -12.95,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.2,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$85.09 · -12.95% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-14T20:00:36Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-09-14T14:57:04.319587Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Sep 14, 2026 · 10:57 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC tracked loss narrowed 0.27 points to -15.13% as the current capture rose 0.64% to $83.92, essentially at but just below VWAP on only 0.06 times average volume. The earnings-and-outlook reference remains company-specific, yet distribution and no confirmed structure leave this small stabilization short of a repaired post-gap continuation.",
"price": 83.92,
"pct": -15.13,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -14.15,
"return_vs_base_pct": -14.15,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.54,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$83.92 · -14.15% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-14T14:05:55.081234Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-09-11T22:10:17.027598Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Sep 11, 2026 · 18:10 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss widened 0.38 points to -15.40% as the latest capture was nearly flat at $83.39 and held just above the $83.25 VWAP reference on 1.02 times average volume. The earnings-and-outlook event remains a real company-specific reference, but distribution and the lack of confirmed structure mean this modest stabilization has not restored the post-gap continuation case.",
"price": 83.39,
"pct": -15.4,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -14.69,
"return_vs_base_pct": -14.69,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.23,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$83.39 · -14.69% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-11T20:33:40Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-09-11T19:50:44.878942Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Sep 11, 2026 · 15:50 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss narrowed 0.55 points to -15.02% as price rose 0.16% to $83.62 and moved above VWAP near the middle of its range. The improvement is modest: volume was 0.63 times average, distribution persists and no structure is confirmed, so the earnings-and-outlook event remains real but the post-gap continuation case has not regained support.",
"price": 83.615,
"pct": -15.02,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -14.46,
"return_vs_base_pct": -14.46,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.25,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$83.61 · -14.46% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-11T19:21:33.380908Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-09-11T14:46:34.878757Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Sep 11, 2026 · 10:46 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC tracked loss widened 0.26 points to -15.57% as the stock slipped 0.13% to $83.37 and remained 0.29% below VWAP on 0.11 times average volume. The earnings-and-outlook reset remains a real event, but the post-gap continuation case has not regained support: participation is fading, distribution persists and no structure is confirmed.",
"price": 83.37,
"pct": -15.57,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -14.71,
"return_vs_base_pct": -14.71,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.11,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$83.37 · -14.71% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-11T14:06:25.411176Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-10T21:45:48.362350Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Sep 10, 2026 · 17:45 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss widened 0.52 points to -15.31% since the previous public note. The stock fell 3.58% to USD 83.48, ending 1.57% below VWAP near the bottom of its range on 0.91 times average volume with no confirmed structure; the earnings-and-outlook event remains real, but the post-gap continuation case has lost further price support.",
"price": 83.48,
"pct": -15.31,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -14.6,
"return_vs_base_pct": -14.6,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.4,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$83.48 · -14.60% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:05:00Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-10T19:42:45.194683Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Sep 10, 2026 · 15:42 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC tracked loss widened 2.28 points to -14.79% since the previous public note as the stock fell 3.13% to USD 83.87. Price ended 1.57% below VWAP near the bottom of its range on 0.57 times average volume, while the stock still leads Technology over twenty sessions at plus 8.92% versus minus 1.80%. The earnings-and-outlook reset remains a real company event, but the post-gap continuation case has lost another layer of current support.",
"price": 83.87,
"pct": -14.79,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -14.2,
"return_vs_base_pct": -14.2,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.21,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$83.87 · -14.20% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-4612191b43fb6bbef0e25ddc235b317aa1c166c2742694593768b328fc342f93",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T19:21:10.275300Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-10T14:50:05.006729Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Sep 10, 2026 · 10:50 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC tracked loss widened 0.35 points to -12.51% since the last public note, even as the latest capture rose 0.50% to USD 87.01 and moved 0.22% above VWAP in the middle of its range. Participation was only 0.08 times average and decelerating, with no confirmed structure; technology-relative strength remains supportive, but the post-earnings continuation case still lacks fresh participation.",
"price": 87.01,
"pct": -12.51,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.99,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.99,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.44,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$87.01 · -10.99% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T14:06:15.609526Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-09T22:21:30.816310Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Sep 9, 2026 · 18:21 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss narrowed from -12.39% to -12.16% since the last public note, although the latest capture fell 2.08% to .58, below VWAP near the bottom of its range on 1.04x average volume. Technology-relative strength remains positive over 20 sessions, but the post-earnings continuation case still lacks confirmed structure and fresh participation.",
"price": 86.58,
"pct": -12.16,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -11.43,
"return_vs_base_pct": -11.43,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.34,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$86.58 · -11.43% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-09T21:18:07Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-09T20:21:16.979607Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Sep 9, 2026 · 16:21 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss widened 1.92 points to -12.39% as the latest capture fell 2.47% to USD 86.24, 1.49% below VWAP on 0.71x average volume. Technology-relative strength remains 12.07 points above the sector over 20 sessions, but decelerating participation and no confirmed structure leave the post-earnings continuation case unsupported in the short term.",
"price": 86.24,
"pct": -12.39,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -11.77,
"return_vs_base_pct": -11.77,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.83,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$86.24 · -11.77% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-09T19:21:49.561649Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-09T14:45:38.979182Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Sep 9, 2026 · 10:45 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss widened 0.17 points to -10.47% as the latest capture slipped 0.44% to USD 88.03 but held 0.88% above VWAP on just 0.15x average volume. Technology-relative strength remains supportive at +13.90 points over 20 sessions, yet no structure or renewed participation confirms that the post-earnings reset is continuing.",
"price": 88.03,
"pct": -10.47,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.94,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.94,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.4,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$88.03 · -9.94% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-09T14:06:47.281893Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-09-08T21:48:47.377242Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Sep 8, 2026 · 17:48 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss widened 0.73 points to -10.30% as price fell 3.69% to $88.42, sat 1.32% below VWAP and traded at 1.09x average volume. The earnings-and-outlook reset remains a real company event and longer-window performance still leads Technology, but the post-gap continuation claim has lost its support: no structure or renewed demand is confirmed.",
"price": 88.42,
"pct": -10.3,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.54,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.54,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.04,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$88.42 · -9.54% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-5fc0e91c9ebb94e13db41be7f283988dcfd8917d5bfe8f9df56972a56be4424d",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-08T20:19:24Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-09-08T19:47:52.421266Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Sep 8, 2026 · 15:47 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss widened 0.06 points to -9.57% as price fell 2.58% to $89.44 and sat 0.18% below VWAP. The earnings reset still leaves a +16.08-point Technology-relative record, but decelerating activity, 0.67x volume and no structure show post-gap continuation is losing support.",
"price": 89.44,
"pct": -9.57,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -8.5,
"return_vs_base_pct": -8.5,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.49,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$89.44 · -8.50% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-08T19:22:03.550453Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-09-08T14:42:23.264195Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Sep 8, 2026 · 10:42 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC tracked loss widened 2.65 points to -9.51% at session 6 after the latest capture fell 3.10% to $88.96 and stayed 0.11% below VWAP. Technology-relative performance remains +16.07 points over 20 sessions, but volume is 0.13 times average and no structure is confirmed; the earnings reset remains identifiable while post-gap continuation loses support.",
"price": 88.9614,
"pct": -9.51,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -8.99,
"return_vs_base_pct": -8.99,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.91,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$88.96 · -8.99% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-08T14:06:19.550837Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-09-04T22:02:26.054811Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Sep 4, 2026 · 18:02 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC tracked loss widened 0.06 points to -6.86% as the latest capture fell 4.49% to $91.81, 1.21% below VWAP at the bottom of its range on 0.86 times average volume. The earnings-and-outlook reset remains a specific event, but the post-gap structure has lost current support despite strong twenty-session relative performance, leaving continuation unconfirmed.",
"price": 91.81,
"pct": -6.86,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -6.08,
"return_vs_base_pct": -6.08,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.12,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$91.81 · -6.08% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-04T21:21:32Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-09-04T19:52:22.042001Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Sep 4, 2026 · 15:52 NYSE",
"text": "The ESTC tracked loss widened 1.51 percentage points to -6.80% as the latest capture fell 4.38% to $91.92, below the $92.93 VWAP at the bottom of its range on 0.49 times average volume. The earnings-and-outlook reset remains a specific company event, but the post-gap continuation thesis has lost more current support and still has no confirmed structure.",
"price": 91.92,
"pct": -6.8,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.96,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.96,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.21,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$91.92 · -5.96% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-889368be1d2bd74b6b1492aa2d66b5d3d5a2b943d47547f273bb2df96b70fbf9",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-04T19:21:46.989147Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-09-04T14:57:43.177869Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Sep 4, 2026 · 10:57 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss widened 2.33 points to -5.29% as the latest capture fell 3.14% to $93.11, below VWAP and in the lower quarter of its range on 0.11 times average volume. The strong twenty-session relative return keeps the earnings reset relevant, but the post-gap repair has lost current support and continuation is unconfirmed.",
"price": 93.11,
"pct": -5.29,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.75,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.75,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.76,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$93.11 · -4.75% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-04T14:06:17.385242Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-09-03T20:17:20.912880Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Sep 3, 2026 · 16:17 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss narrowed 0.66 points to -2.96% as the latest capture jumped 6.94% to $95.80 and moved 1.62% above VWAP near the top of its range. The post-earnings repair now has participation at 1.09 times average volume and strong twenty-session Technology-relative performance, but participation is decelerating and no structure is confirmed; continuation has improved without being established.",
"price": 95.8,
"pct": -2.96,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.99,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.99,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.9,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$95.80 · -1.99% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-03T19:21:52.173032Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-09-03T14:39:55.612616Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Sep 3, 2026 · 10:39 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss improved 5.50 points to -3.62% as the latest capture rose 4.87% to 93.95 and returned to the middle of its range, though it remains 0.20% below VWAP on 0.20 times average volume. The earnings-and-outlook reset still has a primary-source basis and strong twenty-session relative performance, but no confirmed structure or renewed participation means this is a repair attempt, not proof that post-gap continuation has returned.",
"price": 93.945,
"pct": -3.62,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.89,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.89,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 4.47,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$93.94 · -3.89% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-ef88cd160a4c84c05fa73b22e9b4b3a56dce808470f153f1df399259bd0fad5f",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-03T14:06:17.841920Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-09-02T22:21:35.420145Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Sep 2, 2026 · 18:21 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss deepened 2.21 points to -9.12% after the latest capture fell 3.04% to .58. Price is 1.35% below VWAP near the lower range on 1.07 times average volume with no confirmed structure; the earnings-and-outlook reset remains a concrete mechanism, but the post-gap event structure is failing to hold.",
"price": 89.58,
"pct": -9.12,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -8.36,
"return_vs_base_pct": -8.36,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.16,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 97.75,
"reference_text": "$89.58 · -8.36% from $97.75 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-02T21:25:19Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-09-02T16:10:28.896513Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Sep 2, 2026 · 12:10 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC tracked loss widened 0.64 points to -6.91% after the latest capture fell 0.76% to 91.69. Price is only 0.11% above VWAP around the middle of the range on 0.12 times average volume, with no confirmed structure; the earnings-and-outlook reset remains a clear mechanism, but the post-gap continuation is still unconfirmed.",
"price": 91.69,
"pct": -6.91,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -6.2,
"return_vs_base_pct": -6.2,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.72,
"session_day": 3,
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{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-09-01T22:12:01.920718Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Sep 1, 2026 · 18:12 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked loss remains -6.27% as the latest capture fell 5.29% to $92.39. Price sits 1.19% below VWAP at the bottom of its range despite 1.27x average volume, and no confirmed structure has held; the earnings-and-outlook reset remains a clear mechanism, but the post-gap continuation thesis is under renewed pressure.",
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"text": "Aftermarket update: $92.58 (+0.21% vs regular close) · Sep 1, 2026 · 17:45 NYSE"
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"timestamp": "2026-09-01T20:49:53.182114Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Sep 1, 2026 · 16:49 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC's tracked result fell 5.24 points to -6.27% as the current capture dropped 4.88%, sat 0.82% below VWAP near the bottom of its range and traded at 0.75x average volume. The earnings-and-outlook reset remains a specific mechanism and longer-window relative strength is strong, but the post-gap structure has not held; follow-through is under renewed pressure.",
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"date": "Session 1 · Aug 31, 2026 · 18:10 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC improved 0.76 points to -1.03% even as it fell 2.36% on the session; price recovered 0.38% above VWAP with 2.63x average volume but remains in the lower range. The earnings reset is drawing activity, yet no confirmed structure means the post-gap continuation case is still unresolved.",
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{
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"timestamp": "2026-08-31T20:06:38.481308Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Aug 31, 2026 · 16:06 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC improved 0.53 points to -1.79%, but the current quote is 0.23% below VWAP near the bottom of the range despite elevated 1.82x average volume. Strong 20-session Technology outperformance and the healthy EMA context remain, yet the high-participation fade has not repaired the post-earnings structure; follow-through is unconfirmed.",
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"timestamp": "2026-08-31T14:51:02.958063Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Aug 31, 2026 · 10:51 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC fell to -2.32% and moved 1.54% below VWAP in the lower part of the range on 0.38x average volume. The earnings-and-outlook reset remains a specific mechanism, but the fade has not produced the supported recovery needed to confirm follow-through.",
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{
"day": 0,
"timestamp": "2026-08-29T05:57:32.040014Z",
"date": "Session 0 · Aug 29, 2026 · 01:57 NYSE",
"text": "ESTC tracked result is +1.36% after the initial capture rose 19.31% to 99.91 on 4.85x average volume. The earnings-and-outlook reset has strong participation and 20-session Technology outperformance, but price is 4.05 ATR above its EMA reference with no confirmed structure, so the intraday-fade test remains unresolved.",
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"label": "+5 sessions",
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"price": 91.81,
"updated": "Sep 4, 2026 · 17:05 NYSE",
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"title": "Gapping stocks in Friday's session",
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"title": "Stock Market Today: Dow Rises As Warsh Speech Starts; Marvell, Affirm, PayPal Are Big Movers (Live Coverage)",
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"title": "Why Software Stock Elastic Is Rocketing 20% Higher",
"url": "https://www.investors.com/news/technology/elastic-stock-earnings-july-2026-estc-news/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo"
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