GM episode 20260831_GM_DAILY

Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.

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  "public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/coverage/gm/2026-08-31/",
  "published_at": "2026-08-31T18:23:55.357879Z",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-22T22:16:57.942806Z",
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  "instrument": {
    "type": "equity",
    "symbol": "GM",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "name": "General Motors Company"
  },
  "technical_reference": {
    "status": "ok",
    "reference_price": 86.44,
    "model_downside_reference": 83.56,
    "model_upside_scenario_1": 89.32,
    "model_upside_scenario_2": 92.2,
    "atr_14": 1.92,
    "method": "reference_price_plus_minus_atr14"
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  "public_content": {
    "date": "August 31, 2026",
    "generated_at": "2026-08-31T18:23:55.357879Z",
    "original_published_at": null,
    "session_tag": "daily",
    "label": "Market coverage",
    "try_label": "Try of the Day",
    "public_status": "Try of the Day",
    "why_today": "The Desk selects General Motors as Try of the Day after a Canadian labor agreement tied to more than C$1 billion of investment and next-generation GMC Sierra production in Ontario. The mechanism is specific and sourced, although the first market response was modest.",
    "entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: The labor agreement links a stated investment commitment and named Ontario production to a checkable operating path over the fifteen-session horizon. Invalidation boundary: The thesis is weakened if later evidence fails to connect the agreement to execution, or if GM loses its relative resilience as the market stabilizes; a reversal without operating follow-through would be the clearest combined falsifier.",
    "reference_price": 86.44,
    "scanner": {
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      "score": null,
      "score_version": "v0_legacy_reconstructed",
      "change": 0.36,
      "volume": 1213349.0,
      "average_volume": 7236155.0,
      "volume_ratio": 0.18,
      "rsi": 39.97,
      "ema_trend": "86.34 > 85.95 > 84.31",
      "position_52w": 94.26,
      "atr_14": 1.92,
      "vwap": 86.55,
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      "range_position": 0.485,
      "gap_pct": 0.0,
      "relative_strength": {
        "excess_pct": 0.83,
        "index": "SPY",
        "index_chg_pct": -0.47,
        "status": "idiosyncratic"
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      "earnings_warning": {
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        "status": "clear"
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      "short_pct_float": 2.5,
      "days_to_cover": 3.25,
      "catalyst": "Is General Motors a Buy After Its C$1B+ Canadian Investment Pledge?",
      "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
      "exchange": "NYSE",
      "sec_signal": "INSIDER_SELL (M/F/S)"
    },
    "levels": {
      "reference": 86.44,
      "downside": 83.56,
      "upside_1": 89.32,
      "upside_2": 92.2
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    "review": {
      "score": null,
      "status": "Majority with dissent",
      "summary": "The Desk selects General Motors as Try of the Day after a Canadian labor agreement tied to more than C$1 billion of investment and next-generation GMC Sierra production in Ontario. The mechanism is specific and sourced, although the first market response was modest.",
      "views": [
        {
          "name": "Priya Nandakumar",
          "role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
          "icon": "🛡️",
          "view": "I want a case whose mechanism survives ordinary friction: a gap, thin liquidity, and a weak tape should not be mistaken for an edge. I will ask what can actually invalidate the story over fifteen sessions.",
          "reasoning": "Then my dissent is about immediacy, not identity. Consumer-cyclical pressure, tariff uncertainty, and intraday softness can overwhelm a good corporate fact. I support GM only as a monitored research case: no target, no entry, no portfolio instruction. The next evidence should be execution, not louder adjectives."
        },
        {
          "name": "Kenji Osei",
          "role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
          "icon": "🧠",
          "view": "My first question is provenance. I want to know which facts were available when the case was sealed, how much of the market record is complete, and where missing fields stop the inference.",
          "reasoning": "Resolution: GM is Try of the Day by majority with dissent on near-term tape confirmation. The committee has compared all 33 valid candidates, retained EC, VVX, AGCO, and RNXT as the strongest alternatives, and marked the next falsifier. The formal decision is complete; the context roundtable may add public background but cannot reopen selection."
        },
        {
          "name": "Marcus Feld",
          "role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
          "icon": "🦊",
          "view": "I am looking for a dated change with a plausible path from event to business consequence. A price jump can attract attention, but it cannot write the catalyst paragraph for us.",
          "reasoning": "I concede the first market response is quiet. I do not concede that quiet equals failure. On a risk-off day, a modest positive relative move can be a stress test for the thesis. GM's sealed fifteen-session forward probability is 0.56, the highest in the valid set. I use that as corroboration, not as a substitute for the filing. The candidate earns the lead because the event is specific and the counter-case is visible."
        },
        {
          "name": "Nate Brooks",
          "role": "market structure and timing analyst",
          "icon": "📈",
          "view": "I will read the sequence before the adjectives: base, break, follow-through, rejection. If the tape is only a single print, the picture is unfinished.",
          "reasoning": "I will concede the cause. RNXT has the better tape, but a clean breakout around a future clinical readout is not the same as a verified operating change today. GM's lack of a supplied chart view is a limitation, not a penalty. For this editorial horizon, a dated event with a visible falsifier beats a prettier sequence whose outcome is still binary."
        },
        {
          "name": "Elena Vartanyan",
          "role": "independent statistical auditor",
          "icon": "🎯",
          "view": "I will separate the observed move from its explanation, compare the whole field, and mark the first fact that would make the preferred narrative fail. The cleanest story is rarely the safest one.",
          "reasoning": "My objection to model-first reasoning remains. The decision survives only because the evidence hierarchy agrees: primary filing, corroborating reporting, complete coverage, and modest relative strength. The forward probability breaks a tie; it does not create the mechanism. On that basis, the alternatives with cleaner charts but thinner causes stay alternatives."
        }
      ],
      "conviction": {
        "status_phrase": "majority-with-dissent",
        "basis": "A specific primary-supported operating catalyst, complete evidence, and modest relative resilience outweigh weaker causal matches; immediate tape softness keeps the counter-case live.",
        "risk": "",
        "resolution_pct": 68.0,
        "counter_case_pct": 22.0,
        "unresolved_pct": 10.0
      },
      "context_roundtable": {
        "mode": "coffee",
        "status": "complete",
        "consulted_voice_ids": [
          "elena",
          "marcus",
          "kenji",
          "priya",
          "nate"
        ],
        "summary": "A broad day-first market context conversation followed the formal GM decision without reopening selection.",
        "long_read": "The public context points to a risk-off day shaped by renewed Middle East escalation, higher oil sensitivity, and renewed attention to rates and Treasury yields. The roundtable uses that background to explain why modest relative resilience matters while refusing to turn macro weather into company-specific proof. The formal GM decision is preserved, the next falsifier stays operational, and no X material is included because the bounded cursor had no usable record in the current window.",
        "transcript": [
          {
            "speaker_id": "marcus",
            "text": "Coffee first: the broad public picture is risk-off. AP described stocks lower as oil rose after renewed Iran-related escalation, while the market-day reporting also put rate expectations and Treasury yields back in the room. That is useful weather for the case, not a new candidate filter.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://apnews.com/article/00f872327d65e5330598054a234dc25a",
              "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-monday-august-31-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-113851714.html"
            ]
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "kenji",
            "text": "And the sealed market snapshot agrees on participation: 100 advancers, 199 decliners, and one unchanged issue, with complete intraday coverage. The end-of-day layer is absent, so the correct sentence is broad weakness in the available snapshot, not a grand closing verdict."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "priya",
            "text": "Which makes the GM response interesting but not magical. A risk-off backdrop can make relative resilience informative, while the same backdrop can pressure a consumer-cyclical company and complicate tariff-sensitive production. Macro context raises the question; it does not answer it."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "nate",
            "text": "Right. The tape is the quiet colleague at the table. It is not confirming a triumph, and it is not screaming failure. Since GM has no supplied structural view, I am keeping the visual claim narrow and letting the dated operating fact carry the burden."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "elena",
            "text": "The formal decision stays preserved: GM is Try of the Day, with dissent about immediacy. This coffee is allowed to sharpen the public explanation, not to hold a second vote. The useful distinction is traceable evidence versus atmosphere."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "marcus",
            "text": "Exactly. The Canadian agreement is not a hedge against war, and I will not sell it that way. Its mechanism is narrower: investment and named production create an operating path that can be checked. The SEC filing and corroborating reports make that path public and dated.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gms-canadian-workers-approve-deal-004259247.html",
              "https://www.benzinga.com/news/travel/26/08/61514221/gm-workers-approve-deal-securing-next-gen-gmc-sierra-production-in-ontario-amid-trump-tariff-threats",
              "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000119312526344698/d145571d8k.htm"
            ]
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "priya",
            "text": "Good, because the lazy macro sentence would be that geopolitical stress somehow helps GM. It does not. The stress can change costs, demand, and policy conditions in either direction. The falsifier remains execution plus later market behavior, not a louder oil headline.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://apnews.com/article/00f872327d65e5330598054a234dc25a",
              "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000119312526344698/d145571d8k.htm"
            ]
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "kenji",
            "text": "The public context also says the rate path is less comfortable, with inflation and possible September tightening in focus. That is a cross-asset constraint, not GM evidence. It belongs in uncertainty, alongside the missing end-of-day layer, and nowhere in the selection formula.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://apnews.com/article/00f872327d65e5330598054a234dc25a",
              "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-monday-august-31-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-113851714.html",
              "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/september-risks-are-stacking-up-hard-and-fast-for-world-markets-4882183"
            ]
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "nate",
            "text": "It also changes the alternative set. RNXT's chart is cleaner, but small-cap clinical stories carry more gap risk when the tape gets defensive. EC gets a better oil backdrop, yet oil is still not a company-specific confirmation. GM remains the less theatrical case.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://apnews.com/article/00f872327d65e5330598054a234dc25a",
              "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-monday-august-31-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-113851714.html"
            ]
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "elena",
            "text": "That is the reframe I can live with: not safe, not obvious, simply more traceable. The model signal helps rank the sealed field, but the editorial decision rests on the event, the corroboration, and the explicit way it could fail."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "marcus",
            "text": "And EC should remain visible in the public comparison precisely because the energy context is live. Its transaction is real; it just asks the reader to make one extra inferential jump from sector weather to company repricing. GM asks for fewer jumps.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://apnews.com/article/00f872327d65e5330598054a234dc25a",
              "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-monday-august-31-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-113851714.html"
            ]
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "priya",
            "text": "No target, no entry language, no portfolio detour. Over the fifteen-session journal, the question is whether the investment-and-production link stays credible and whether the market response remains consistent with that explanation. If not, the story gets smaller."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "kenji",
            "text": "The bounded X cursor was checked after the formal resolution and contained no usable record in the current window. I am leaving X out rather than laundering older or out-of-window material into today's context."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "elena",
            "text": "Then the public close is clean: broad risk-off context, a specific GM operating event, modest relative resilience, and a named falsifier. No second selection, no borrowed certainty."
          }
        ],
        "source_urls": [
          "https://apnews.com/article/00f872327d65e5330598054a234dc25a",
          "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-monday-august-31-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-113851714.html",
          "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/september-risks-are-stacking-up-hard-and-fast-for-world-markets-4882183",
          "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gms-canadian-workers-approve-deal-004259247.html",
          "https://www.benzinga.com/news/travel/26/08/61514221/gm-workers-approve-deal-securing-next-gen-gmc-sierra-production-in-ontario-amid-trump-tariff-threats",
          "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1467858/000119312526344698/d145571d8k.htm"
        ]
      },
      "context_roundtable_sources": []
    },
    "updates": [
      {
        "day": 15,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-22T22:16:57.942806Z",
        "date": "Session 15 · Sep 22, 2026 · 18:16 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's 15-session tracking closes at -3.46% from the $86.45 entry, ending at $83.45. The path reached +1.64% at best and -5.84% at worst. Fresh closure evidence records $83.45 from the provider, an $83.63 post-market quote (+0.22%) and 0.91 times average volume. Current session-average price, RSI, EMA trend and 52-week position readings are unavailable. The Canadian labor agreement and its stated Ontario investment and GMC Sierra production path remained a traceable mechanism, but temporary price repairs never became durable confirmation and the final market result is negative. Public tracking ends at session 15.",
        "price": 83.59,
        "pct": -3.3,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -3.3,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -3.3,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.42,
        "session_day": 15,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$83.59 · -3.30% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": true,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-1b7b2f9cb365fb3f04649ce3c909152bbc6468708bc39311a94d042784c5820f",
        "price_as_of": "2026-08-31T21:40:18Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 14,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-21T22:18:48.025973Z",
        "date": "Session 14 · Sep 21, 2026 · 18:18 NYSE",
        "text": "GM tracked loss widened 0.70 points to -2.89% even as price rose 2.13% to 83.95, held 0.68% above VWAP and traded at 1.14 times average volume. The Canadian investment-and-production thesis gets a firmer session, but distribution, a sector headwind and no confirmed structure still leave execution unproven.",
        "price": 83.95,
        "pct": -2.89,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -2.88,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -2.88,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.68,
        "session_day": 14,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$83.95 · -2.88% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-21T20:58:22Z",
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      {
        "day": 14,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:02:22.291066Z",
        "date": "Session 14 · Sep 21, 2026 · 16:02 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss improved 1.81 points to -2.19% as price rose 2.85% to 84.54, held 0.68% above VWAP near the top of its range, and outperformed SPY by 1.18 points on the day. The investment-and-production thesis gets a better tape, but 0.58 times average dollar volume, distribution and no confirmed structure keep this as a modest repair rather than evidence of execution.",
        "price": 84.54,
        "pct": -2.19,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -2.2,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -2.2,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.43,
        "session_day": 14,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$84.54 · -2.20% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-21T19:23:03.095376Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 14,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-21T15:03:03.610231Z",
        "date": "Session 14 · Sep 21, 2026 · 11:03 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss improved 0.91 points to -4.00% as price rose 1.34% to 83.31, but volume was only 0.11 times its three-month average and no structure is confirmed. The investment-and-production mechanism remains testable, yet this low-participation repair does not show that the market is validating execution. The tape is better than the prior note, not decisive.",
        "price": 83.305,
        "pct": -4.0,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -3.63,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -3.63,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.28,
        "session_day": 14,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$83.31 · -3.63% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-21T14:09:41.346729Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 13,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-18T22:28:30.977956Z",
        "date": "Session 13 · Sep 18, 2026 · 18:28 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss improved 0.13 points to -4.91% despite a 5.10% fall to 82.20 on 3.18x average volume, below 82.83 VWAP and near the range low. The investment-and-production mechanism remains testable, but distribution and no confirmed structure mean the tape has not validated execution.",
        "price": 82.2,
        "pct": -4.91,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -4.91,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -4.91,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.17,
        "session_day": 13,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$82.20 · -4.91% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-18T21:20:04Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 13,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-18T20:14:29.837051Z",
        "date": "Session 13 · Sep 18, 2026 · 16:14 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss widened to -5.04% as the latest capture fell 5.28% to 82.05 on 1.10x average volume. The Canadian investment-and-production mechanism is still testable, but the absence of confirmed structure means the market response is weakening before execution can validate the thesis.",
        "price": 82.045,
        "pct": -5.04,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -5.08,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -5.08,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.41,
        "session_day": 13,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$82.05 · -5.08% from $86.44 base",
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        "price_as_of": "2026-09-18T19:21:09.426587Z",
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      {
        "day": 13,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-18T14:28:29.043062Z",
        "date": "Session 13 · Sep 18, 2026 · 10:28 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked result fell 4.15 points from the last public note to -3.95% as the latest capture dropped 3.87% to $83.27, sat 1.55% below VWAP and closed near the bottom of its range on 0.28x average volume. That weakens the short-term resilience claim, even though GM still leads its pressured sector over 20 sessions; the Canadian investment-and-production mechanism remains untested rather than disproved, so execution—not another price bounce—would have to repair it.",
        "price": 83.265,
        "pct": -3.95,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -3.67,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -3.67,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.88,
        "session_day": 13,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$83.27 · -3.67% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": true,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-9df9d523e46dd21ab40cccd76f156164d7ad7e4ff18e557bbdc259766e937f9d",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-18T14:06:06.717745Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 12,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-17T22:21:36.658087Z",
        "date": "Session 12 · Sep 17, 2026 · 18:21 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked result fell 0.73 points to +0.20% despite a 2.76% latest-session rise to USD 86.62. Price is 0.09% below VWAP on 1.18x volume with no confirmed structure; GM is up 1.95% over 20 sessions versus Consumer Cyclical down 6.07%. The labor-and-production mechanism retains relative support, but execution evidence remains unconfirmed.",
        "price": 86.62,
        "pct": 0.2,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.21,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 0.21,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.61,
        "session_day": 12,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$86.62 · +0.21% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T20:20:00Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 12,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-17T14:37:03.644600Z",
        "date": "Session 12 · Sep 17, 2026 · 10:37 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked result improved 3.83 points to +0.93% as the latest capture rose 3.39% to $87.15 and moved 0.32% above VWAP. The Canadian labor-and-production agreement remains a specific operating question, but 0.10x average volume and no confirmed structure show price repair—not evidence that execution has arrived.",
        "price": 87.15,
        "pct": 0.93,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.82,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 0.82,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 4.06,
        "session_day": 12,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$87.15 · +0.82% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-b2e5852d7765a167b2f304882c15c2264043dba535cc4a375979a1f9265177d2",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T14:10:17.742927Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 11,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-16T20:27:40.609141Z",
        "date": "Session 11 · Sep 16, 2026 · 16:27 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss widened 0.68 points to -2.90% after a 2.03% fall to .64. Price finished 1.16% below VWAP on 0.55x average volume near the bottom of its range, with no confirmed structure; the labor-and-production follow-through case is weaker.",
        "price": 83.6367,
        "pct": -2.9,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -3.24,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -3.24,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.9,
        "session_day": 11,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$83.64 · -3.24% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-16T19:21:13.018409Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 11,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-16T14:49:03.086369Z",
        "date": "Session 11 · Sep 16, 2026 · 10:49 NYSE",
        "text": "GM tracked loss is 2,22% as the latest capture moved 1,11% to USD 84,42, with price below VWAP on 0,09 times time-adjusted participation. The tracked result widened 0,98 points, but The labor-and-production follow-through case is slightly weaker.",
        "price": 84.42,
        "pct": -2.22,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -2.34,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -2.34,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.1,
        "session_day": 11,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$84.42 · -2.34% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-16T14:06:40.306426Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 10,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-15T21:47:17.098351Z",
        "date": "Session 10 · Sep 15, 2026 · 17:47 NYSE",
        "text": "GM tracked loss widened 0.13 points to -1.24% after a 2.05% decline to USD 85.37, with price below VWAP on 0.91 times time-adjusted volume. The stock longer-window sector context does not offset the absent structure, leaving the labor-and-production follow-through case slightly weaker.",
        "price": 85.37,
        "pct": -1.24,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.24,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -1.24,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.09,
        "session_day": 10,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$85.37 · -1.24% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": {
          "phase": "post",
          "text": "Aftermarket update: $85.37 (0.00% vs regular close) · Sep 15, 2026 · 17:21 NYSE"
        },
        "extended_hours": {
          "phase": "post",
          "price": 85.37,
          "ext_pct": 0.0,
          "as_of": "2026-09-15T21:21:50Z",
          "persisted": false
        },
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-15T21:21:50Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 10,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-15T19:27:19.871047Z",
        "date": "Session 10 · Sep 15, 2026 · 15:27 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's current tape points to deterioration: it moved -1,96% to $85,45, with VWAP at 85,79 and volume at 0,56 times its three-month average. The tracked return is -1,37%, versus 0,17 points since the previous public note; Consumer Cyclical-relative wording remains headwind with a 6,29 point gap versus Consumer Cyclical, so the published thesis is not upgraded beyond what this move supports.",
        "price": 85.45,
        "pct": -1.37,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.15,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -1.15,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.2,
        "session_day": 10,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$85.45 · -1.15% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-15T19:21:00.581079Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 10,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-15T16:22:23.627866Z",
        "date": "Session 10 · Sep 15, 2026 · 12:22 NYSE",
        "text": "GM tracked result slipped 2.37 points to -1.54% as the current capture fell 2.16% to $85.28, 1.06% below VWAP at the bottom of its range on 0.27 times average volume. The stock still outperforms a weaker Consumer Cyclical sector over twenty sessions, but the loss of VWAP, absent structure and neutral accumulation weaken the labor-and-production follow-through case.",
        "price": 85.275,
        "pct": -1.54,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.35,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -1.35,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.18,
        "session_day": 10,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$85.28 · -1.35% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-15T15:52:36.865021Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 9,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-14T23:34:45.847690Z",
        "date": "Session 9 · Sep 14, 2026 · 19:34 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked result turned positive at +0.83% as the latest capture rose 1.80% to $87.16, above VWAP and near the top of its range with early structure. Relative resilience versus Consumer Cyclical supports the labor-and-production thesis, but light participation and distribution still stop that improvement from proving operating follow-through.",
        "price": 87.16,
        "pct": 0.83,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.83,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 0.83,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.01,
        "session_day": 9,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$87.16 · +0.83% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-14T22:00:03Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 9,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-14T22:40:20.114285Z",
        "date": "Session 9 · Sep 14, 2026 · 18:40 NYSE",
        "text": "GM improved 1.39 points to a tracked gain of +0.84% as the latest capture rose 1.81% to $87.17, 1.05% above VWAP on 0.66x average volume. Early structure and relative resilience versus Consumer Cyclical help the labor-and-production thesis, while light participation and distribution still limit the operating follow-through claim.",
        "price": 87.17,
        "pct": 0.83,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.84,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 0.84,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.89,
        "session_day": 9,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$87.17 · +0.84% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-14T20:00:35Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 9,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-14T14:57:07.674152Z",
        "date": "Session 9 · Sep 14, 2026 · 10:57 NYSE",
        "text": "GM tracked loss narrowed 0.40 points to -0.55% as the current capture rose 0.91% to $86.40, 0.49% above VWAP with early structure. Relative resilience versus a weaker Consumer Cyclical sector is still constructive, but participation is only 0.11 times average and distribution remains, so the labor-and-production thesis has improved without proving operating follow-through.",
        "price": 86.395,
        "pct": -0.55,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.05,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.05,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.9,
        "session_day": 9,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$86.39 · -0.05% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-14T14:05:55.081234Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 8,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-11T22:10:18.385965Z",
        "date": "Session 8 · Sep 11, 2026 · 18:10 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked result slipped 0.11 points to -0.95% as the latest capture fell 0.58% to $85.62, below the $86.38 VWAP reference near the lower edge of its range on 1.07 times average volume. Relative resilience versus a weak Consumer Cyclical sector remains a useful counterpoint, but distribution and the absence of confirmed structure leave the Canadian investment and production case specific yet unproven.",
        "price": 85.62,
        "pct": -0.95,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.95,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.95,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.17,
        "session_day": 8,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$85.62 · -0.95% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T21:22:54Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 8,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-11T19:50:47.786051Z",
        "date": "Session 8 · Sep 11, 2026 · 15:50 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked result slipped from flat to -0.84% as price fell 0.41% to $85.77 and settled below VWAP near the lower edge of its range on 0.64 times average volume. Relative resilience versus the weak sector remains, but the current tape does not confirm operating follow-through or a durable hold; the Canadian investment and production case stays specific and unproven.",
        "price": 85.77,
        "pct": -0.84,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.78,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.78,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.96,
        "session_day": 8,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$85.77 · -0.78% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T19:21:33.380908Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 8,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-11T14:37:26.491510Z",
        "date": "Session 8 · Sep 11, 2026 · 10:37 NYSE",
        "text": "GM tracked result improved 3.11 points to 0.00% from the last panel note, but the latest capture slipped 0.39% to $86.60 and sat 0.39% below VWAP in the lower part of its range on 0.09 times average volume. The Canadian investment and production mechanism remains specific, and relative resilience versus its weak sector persists; however, the current tape does not confirm operating follow-through or a durable hold.",
        "price": 86.595,
        "pct": 0.0,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.18,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 0.18,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.55,
        "session_day": 8,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$86.59 · +0.18% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-9cf1d2e80490cb3516f6dc0dd2cc820b80ff9322074adf121b34c398f3388263",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T14:06:25.411176Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 7,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-10T21:46:28.162629Z",
        "date": "Session 7 · Sep 10, 2026 · 17:46 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss narrowed 0.33 points to -0.38% since the previous public note. The stock rose 2.82% to USD 86.12, finished 0.95% above VWAP near the top of its range on 0.89 times average volume, and remains relatively resilient against its weak sector; the Canadian investment mechanism has improved, but operating follow-through is not yet confirmed.",
        "price": 86.12,
        "pct": -0.38,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.37,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.37,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.35,
        "session_day": 7,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$86.12 · -0.37% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": {
          "phase": "post",
          "text": "Aftermarket update: $86.00 (-0.14% vs regular close) · Sep 10, 2026 · 17:25 NYSE"
        },
        "extended_hours": {
          "phase": "post",
          "price": 86.0,
          "ext_pct": -0.14,
          "as_of": "2026-09-10T21:25:01Z",
          "persisted": false
        },
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:25:01Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 7,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-10T20:00:38.681423Z",
        "date": "Session 7 · Sep 10, 2026 · 16:00 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss narrowed 1.00 point to -0.71% since the previous public note as the latest capture rose 2.46% to USD 85.82. Price finished 0.95% above VWAP near the top of its range on 0.55 times average volume; GM still outperforms its weak Consumer Cyclical sector over twenty sessions, but the Canadian investment mechanism has not yet produced confirmed structure or operating follow-through.",
        "price": 85.82,
        "pct": -0.71,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.72,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.72,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.17,
        "session_day": 7,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$85.82 · -0.72% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-10T19:21:10.275300Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 7,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-10T14:50:45.155754Z",
        "date": "Session 7 · Sep 10, 2026 · 10:50 NYSE",
        "text": "GM tracked loss narrowed 1.40 points to -1.71% since the last public note. The latest capture rose 1.25% to USD 84.81, 0.90% above VWAP at the top of its range, but participation was only 0.16 times average and decelerating, with no confirmed structure. The Canadian investment and production mechanism remains specific; the repair is visible, but operating follow-through is not established by this tape.",
        "price": 84.81,
        "pct": -1.71,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.89,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -1.89,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.21,
        "session_day": 7,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$84.81 · -1.89% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-10T14:06:15.609526Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 6,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-09T22:07:51.441025Z",
        "date": "Session 6 · Sep 9, 2026 · 18:07 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked result moved from -1.81% to -3.11% since the last public note as the latest capture fell 2.37% to $83.76, below VWAP near the lower third of its range on 1.09x average volume. The Canadian investment and production agreement remains a specific operating mechanism, but the market has not supplied follow-through or restored relative resilience.",
        "price": 83.76,
        "pct": -3.11,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -3.1,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -3.1,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.39,
        "session_day": 6,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$83.76 · -3.10% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-e5f0570ad8202d83708beb67fb35552d08ee2c2b36f427d7b1e7034505ab3a35",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-09T21:19:20Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 6,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-09T20:21:20.003858Z",
        "date": "Session 6 · Sep 9, 2026 · 16:21 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss widened 0.97 points to -1.81% as the latest capture fell 0.97% to USD 84.96, 0.40% below VWAP on 0.72x average volume. Modest 20-session resilience versus Consumer Cyclical remains at 0.57 points, but distribution, decelerating participation and no confirmed structure leave the labor-and-production question without market follow-through.",
        "price": 84.96,
        "pct": -1.81,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.71,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -1.71,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.66,
        "session_day": 6,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$84.96 · -1.71% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-09T19:21:49.561649Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 6,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-09T14:45:41.794508Z",
        "date": "Session 6 · Sep 9, 2026 · 10:45 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss widened 0.08 points to -0.84% as the latest capture slipped 0.30% to USD 85.54, essentially at VWAP on 0.16x average volume with no confirmed structure. Modest resilience versus Consumer Cyclical remains, but distribution and the lack of operating follow-through still leave the labor-and-production question open.",
        "price": 85.535,
        "pct": -0.84,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.05,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -1.05,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.3,
        "session_day": 6,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$85.53 · -1.05% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-09T14:06:47.281893Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 5,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-08T22:00:35.259023Z",
        "date": "Session 5 · Sep 8, 2026 · 18:00 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss widened 0.03 points to -0.76% as price fell 2.24% to $85.79, 0.46% below VWAP and near the bottom of its range on 0.89x average volume. Modest resilience versus Consumer Cyclical keeps the labor-and-production question open, but no structure or operating follow-through is visible yet.",
        "price": 85.79,
        "pct": -0.76,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.75,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.75,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.2,
        "session_day": 5,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$85.79 · -0.75% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-08T21:18:09Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 5,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-08T19:47:53.847283Z",
        "date": "Session 5 · Sep 8, 2026 · 15:47 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss narrowed 0.04 points to -0.73% as price fell 2.44% to $85.62 and moved 0.45% below VWAP. Relative resilience versus Consumer Cyclical remains modestly positive at +2.14 points over 20 sessions, but low volume, a near-range-floor capture and no structure leave the labor-and-production case waiting for operating follow-through.",
        "price": 85.62,
        "pct": -0.73,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.95,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.95,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.59,
        "session_day": 5,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$85.62 · -0.95% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-08T19:22:03.550453Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 5,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-08T14:42:26.103477Z",
        "date": "Session 5 · Sep 8, 2026 · 10:42 NYSE",
        "text": "GM tracked loss widened 2.29 points to -0.77% at session 5 after the latest capture fell 1.86% to $86.13 and moved 0.97% below VWAP. Consumer Cyclical-relative performance remains +2.74 points over 20 sessions, but volume is 0.10 times average and no structure is confirmed; the labor-and-production case now needs operating follow-through, not just relative resilience.",
        "price": 86.13,
        "pct": -0.77,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.36,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.36,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.89,
        "session_day": 5,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$86.13 · -0.36% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-08T14:06:19.550837Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 4,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-04T22:02:28.345572Z",
        "date": "Session 4 · Sep 4, 2026 · 18:02 NYSE",
        "text": "GM tracked gain improved 0.37 points to +1.52% as the latest capture rose 0.83% to $87.76 and held 0.78% above VWAP near the top of its range. Early structure and resilience versus Consumer Cyclical support the labor-and-production case, but 0.75 times average volume and the absence of operating follow-through keep the thesis open.",
        "price": 87.76,
        "pct": 1.52,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 1.53,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 1.53,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.43,
        "session_day": 4,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$87.76 · +1.53% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-04T21:21:32Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 4,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-04T20:02:45.094523Z",
        "date": "Session 4 · Sep 4, 2026 · 16:02 NYSE",
        "text": "GM tracked gain improved 0.62 points to +1.15% as the latest capture rose 0.40% to $87.39 and held 0.36% above VWAP near the top of its range. Early structure and resilience against a weak Consumer Cyclical sector support the labor-and-production case, but volume is only 0.40 times average and the record still lacks operating follow-through evidence.",
        "price": 87.39,
        "pct": 1.15,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 1.1,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 1.1,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.71,
        "session_day": 4,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$87.39 · +1.10% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-04T19:21:46.989147Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 4,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-04T14:57:45.722543Z",
        "date": "Session 4 · Sep 4, 2026 · 10:57 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked gain eased 0.52 points to +0.53% as the latest capture slipped 0.30% to $86.78 but held 0.09% above VWAP around 71% of range. Relative resilience versus a weak Consumer Cyclical sector keeps the labor-and-production case alive; light participation and distribution still leave execution evidence unconfirmed.",
        "price": 86.775,
        "pct": 0.53,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.39,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 0.39,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.27,
        "session_day": 4,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$86.78 · +0.39% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-04T14:06:17.385242Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 3,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-03T20:18:32.236041Z",
        "date": "Session 3 · Sep 3, 2026 · 16:18 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked result improved 1.91 points to +1.05% as the latest capture rose 2.52% to $87.01 and held 0.61% above VWAP in the upper range. The Ontario labor-and-production case now has early structure and relative resilience, but participation is decelerating at 0.49 times average volume and distribution remains present; the price repair is encouraging, not yet operating confirmation.",
        "price": 87.01,
        "pct": 1.05,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.66,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 0.66,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.34,
        "session_day": 3,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$87.01 · +0.66% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T19:21:52.173032Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 3,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-03T14:56:38.331585Z",
        "date": "Session 3 · Sep 3, 2026 · 10:56 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss improved 0.96 points to -0.86% in the latest capture, with price up 1.15% to 85.85 and above VWAP at 65.7% of the range on only 0.07 times average volume. The Ontario labor-agreement, investment and production mechanism remains sourced and price has repaired, but distribution, no confirmed structure and very light participation mean execution evidence is still needed before continuation can be credited.",
        "price": 85.85,
        "pct": -0.86,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.68,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.68,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.14,
        "session_day": 3,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$85.85 · -0.68% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-03T14:06:17.841920Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 2,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-02T22:21:35.968055Z",
        "date": "Session 2 · Sep 2, 2026 · 18:21 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss deepened 1.39 points to -1.82% after the latest capture fell 0.89% to .87. Price is 0.26% below VWAP in the lower range on 0.82 times average volume, with distribution and no confirmed structure; the Ontario investment and production mechanism remains sourced, but the first market response has weakened and needs execution evidence.",
        "price": 84.87,
        "pct": -1.82,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.82,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -1.82,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.32,
        "session_day": 2,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$84.87 · -1.82% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-02T21:25:47Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 2,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-02T16:10:43.798371Z",
        "date": "Session 2 · Sep 2, 2026 · 12:10 NYSE",
        "text": "GM tracked loss improved 0.51 points to -0.43% after the latest capture rose 0.44% to 86.01. Price is 0.21% above VWAP around the middle of the range, but volume is only 0.15 times average, distribution remains and the Consumer Cyclical backdrop is a headwind; the labor-agreement execution path is still unconfirmed.",
        "price": 86.01,
        "pct": -0.43,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.5,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.5,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.44,
        "session_day": 2,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$86.01 · -0.50% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-02T14:44:54.049824Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 1,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-01T22:12:06.175009Z",
        "date": "Session 1 · Sep 1, 2026 · 18:12 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked loss remains -0.94% as the latest capture fell 0.80% to $85.63. Price is 0.45% below VWAP near the bottom of its range on 0.72x average volume; distribution, no confirmed structure and a Consumer Cyclical headwind leave the labor-agreement execution path unconfirmed, with no current price evidence of the earlier relative resilience.",
        "price": 85.63,
        "pct": -0.94,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.94,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.94,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.02,
        "session_day": 1,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$85.63 · -0.94% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": {
          "phase": "post",
          "text": "Aftermarket update: $85.69 (+0.07% vs regular close) · Sep 1, 2026 · 17:47 NYSE"
        },
        "extended_hours": {
          "phase": "post",
          "price": 85.69,
          "ext_pct": 0.07,
          "as_of": "2026-09-01T21:47:53Z",
          "persisted": false
        },
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-01T21:47:53Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 1,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-01T21:06:03.949081Z",
        "date": "Session 1 · Sep 1, 2026 · 17:06 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked result worsened 1.11 points from +0.11% to -1.00% as the capture fell 0.82% and sat 0.49% below VWAP near the range floor on 0.38x average volume. Healthy EMA alignment offers limited support, but distribution, a Consumer Cyclical headwind and no confirmed structure leave labor-agreement execution follow-through unproven.",
        "price": 85.61,
        "pct": -0.94,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.96,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.96,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.89,
        "session_day": 1,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$85.61 · -0.96% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-01T19:21:29.772075Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 1,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-01T16:21:34.050973Z",
        "date": "Session 1 · Sep 1, 2026 · 12:21 NYSE",
        "text": "GM's tracked result improved 0.25 points to +0.11% as the current capture rose 0.07%, but price sat 0.02% below VWAP in the lower part of its range on 0.10x average volume. Healthy EMA alignment offers limited support; distribution, a Consumer Cyclical headwind and no confirmed structure leave labor-agreement execution follow-through unproven.",
        "price": 86.38,
        "pct": 0.11,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.07,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.07,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.07,
        "session_day": 1,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$86.38 · -0.07% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-01T14:13:30.142689Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 0,
        "timestamp": "2026-08-31T22:10:18.727207Z",
        "date": "Session 0 · Aug 31, 2026 · 18:10 NYSE",
        "text": "GM opened its tracking record with a -0.14% result after a quiet 0.06% session gain; price remained 0.28% below VWAP in the lower range on 1.08x average volume. The labor-agreement mechanism is checkable, but the soft short-term tape and sector headwind leave execution follow-through unproven.",
        "price": 86.32,
        "pct": -0.14,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.14,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -0.14,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.24,
        "session_day": 0,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$86.32 · -0.14% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-08-31T21:33:10Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 0,
        "timestamp": "2026-08-31T20:06:49.808883Z",
        "date": "Session 0 · Aug 31, 2026 · 16:06 NYSE",
        "text": "GM is +0.10% after a modest 0.10-point improvement, with the current quote 0.18% below VWAP near the middle of the range on only 0.30x average volume. The EMA structure is healthy and the labor-agreement investment and production path remains specific, but the first market response has not produced confirmed follow-through; the operating thesis is still an initial test.",
        "price": 86.525,
        "pct": 0.1,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.1,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 0.1,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.1,
        "session_day": 0,
        "reference_price": 86.44,
        "reference_text": "$86.53 · +0.10% from $86.44 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-08-31T19:21:03.615633Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      }
    ],
    "observed_outcomes": [
      {
        "label": "+1 sessions",
        "status": "complete",
        "return": -0.94,
        "reference_text": "-0.94% from $86.44 base",
        "price": 85.63,
        "updated": "Sep 1, 2026 · 17:06 NYSE",
        "mfe": 0.86,
        "mae": -1.42
      },
      {
        "label": "+5 sessions",
        "status": "complete",
        "return": -0.76,
        "reference_text": "-0.76% from $86.44 base",
        "price": 85.79,
        "updated": "Sep 8, 2026 · 17:05 NYSE",
        "mfe": 1.63,
        "mae": -2.89
      },
      {
        "label": "+10 sessions",
        "status": "complete",
        "return": -1.24,
        "reference_text": "-1.24% from $86.44 base",
        "price": 85.37,
        "updated": "Sep 15, 2026 · 17:05 NYSE",
        "mfe": 1.63,
        "mae": -4.15
      },
      {
        "label": "+15 sessions",
        "status": "complete",
        "return": -3.46,
        "reference_text": "-3.46% from $86.44 base",
        "price": 83.45,
        "updated": "Sep 22, 2026 · 17:06 NYSE",
        "mfe": 1.64,
        "mae": -5.84
      }
    ],
    "candidate_comparison_history": [
      {
        "day": 0,
        "timestamp": "2026-08-31T20:06:49.808883Z",
        "comparison": {
          "schema_version": "public-candidate-comparison.v1",
          "captured_at": "2026-08-31T20:06:49.808883Z",
          "base_definition": "Candidates use the publication reference; benchmarks use the previous regular close.",
          "source": "sealed_update_market_context + canonical_candidate_snapshot + market_trajectory + public_market_snapshot",
          "rows": [
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              "symbol": "GM",
              "role": "selected",
              "price": 86.525,
              "base_price": 86.445,
              "return_since_base_pct": 0.0925,
              "session_return_pct": 0.3,
              "change_since_prior_pct": -0.0924,
              "volume_ratio": 0.3,
              "rsi": 39.73,
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              "extended_hours_pct": null,
              "as_of": "2026-08-31T19:21:03.615633Z",
              "source": "yfinance_quote",
              "name": "General Motors Company",
              "episode_id": "narrative:GM:7e143742b8d7d4fb",
              "ema_trend": "86.33 > 85.94 > 83.97",
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            },
            {
              "symbol": "EC",
              "role": "alternative",
              "price": 16.701,
              "base_price": 16.62,
              "return_since_base_pct": 0.4874,
              "session_return_pct": 1.2179,
              "change_since_prior_pct": 0.3968,
              "volume_ratio": null,
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              "as_of": "2026-08-31T19:52:10Z",
              "source": "yfinance_quote",
              "name": "Ecopetrol S.A.",
              "episode_id": "narrative:EC:175ce3958d16e153",
              "price_as_of": "2026-08-31T19:52:10Z",
              "vwap_as_of": null
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            {
              "symbol": "VVX",
              "role": "alternative",
              "price": 77.19,
              "base_price": 77.16,
              "return_since_base_pct": 0.0389,
              "session_return_pct": -0.6436,
              "change_since_prior_pct": 0.2337,
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              "as_of": "2026-08-31T19:52:03Z",
              "source": "yfinance_quote",
              "name": "V2X, Inc.",
              "episode_id": "narrative:VVX:b6ef0e4d5bbd445c",
              "price_as_of": "2026-08-31T19:52:03Z",
              "vwap_as_of": null
            },
            {
              "symbol": "AGCO",
              "role": "alternative",
              "price": 118.295,
              "base_price": 118.745,
              "return_since_base_pct": -0.379,
              "session_return_pct": 4.3258,
              "change_since_prior_pct": 0.4373,
              "volume_ratio": null,
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              "as_of": "2026-08-31T19:51:55Z",
              "source": "yfinance_quote",
              "name": "AGCO Corporation",
              "episode_id": "narrative:AGCO:d0590c9382263304",
              "price_as_of": "2026-08-31T19:51:55Z",
              "vwap_as_of": null
            },
            {
              "symbol": "RNXT",
              "role": "alternative",
              "price": 1.9299,
              "base_price": 1.72,
              "return_since_base_pct": 12.2035,
              "session_return_pct": 15.5629,
              "change_since_prior_pct": 3.2032,
              "volume_ratio": null,
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