{ "schema_version": "tryding-agent-episode.v1", "episode_id": "20260908_DKS_MIDDAY", "episode_url": "https://trydingday.com/data/agents/v1/episodes/20260908_DKS_MIDDAY.json", "public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/coverage/dks/2026-09-08/midday/", "published_at": "2026-09-08T18:29:22.503536Z", "updated_at": "2026-09-29T22:33:31.211326Z", "lifecycle": { "tracking_status": "closed", "active_for_tracking": false, "stage": "closed" }, "instrument": { "type": "equity", "symbol": "DKS", "exchange": "NYSE", "name": "DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc." }, "technical_reference": { "status": "ok", "reference_price": 133.31, "model_downside_reference": 117.98, "model_upside_scenario_1": 148.64, "model_upside_scenario_2": 163.97, "atr_14": 10.22, "method": "reference_price_plus_minus_atr14" }, "public_content": { "date": "September 8, 2026", "generated_at": "2026-09-08T18:29:22.503536Z", "original_published_at": null, "session_tag": "midday", "label": "Market coverage", "try_label": "Raw Try", "public_status": "Raw Try", "why_today": "The panel currently selects DKS for a Raw Try. The sealed record supports a testable question about whether inventory and promotional pressure are temporary or structural after a severe repricing. The current tape remains below VWAP, so this is a research case rather than a confirmed recovery or trading instruction.", "entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: {'type': 'researchable_recovery_hypothesis', 'statement': 'Over the next 15 market sessions, DKS is a test of whether the recent repricing reflects temporary inventory and promotional pressure or a structural earnings reset. The sealed record makes that question concrete, but does not establish a recovery.', 'horizon_sessions': 15, 'public_boundary': 'This is a public research thesis, not a trading instruction.'} Invalidation boundary: {'conditions': ['A subsequent issuer filing or operating report shows worsening inventory, promotional pressure or cash flow.', 'DKS breaks below the sealed $117.98 downside reference with renewed distribution and does not repair around the captured $133.80 VWAP.'], 'interpretation': 'These conditions would invalidate the temporary-reset hypothesis.'}", "reference_price": 133.31, "scanner": { "price": 133.31, "reference": 133.31, "score": null, "score_version": "legacy research", "change": -4.2, "volume": 1979056.0, "average_volume": 2486191.0, "volume_ratio": 0.8, "rsi": 21.24, "ema_trend": "141.29 > 158.95 > 183.06", "position_52w": 54.55, "atr_14": 10.22, "vwap": 133.8, "vwap_state": "below", "vwap_distance_pct": -0.37, "vwap_reading": { "price": 133.8, "state": "below", "distance_pct": -0.37 }, "range_position": 0.202, "gap_pct": 0.0, "relative_strength": { "excess_pct": -3.87, "index": "SPY", "index_chg_pct": -0.33, "status": "idiosyncratic" }, "volume_percentile": { "median_vol": 1312300, "percentile": 77.8, "status": "elevated", "today_vol": 1979056 }, "extension": { "atr": 10.22, "dist_atr": -2.51, "ema_ref": 158.95, "status": "below" }, "atr_move_signal": { "atr_pct": 7.67, "status": "noise", "z": -0.55 }, "sector_breadth": null, "sentiment": null, "sentiment_score": null, "earnings_warning": { "days_away": null, "earnings_date": null, "has_earnings_soon": false, "status": "clear" }, "options_snapshot": null, "extended_hours": { "ext_pct": null, "market_state": "REGULAR", "phase": "regular", "post_market_pct": null, "pre_market_pct": null, "status": "none" }, "coiled_spring": { "component_count": 0, "components": {}, "count": 0, "detector_version": "coiled-compression-ohlc.v1", "reason": "coiled_ohlc_detector_runs_on_research_and_known_ticker_rails", "schema_version": "coiled-features.v2", "status": "not_evaluated" }, "short_pct_float": 12.54, "days_to_cover": 4.87, "catalyst": "I Predicted That Lululemon Stock Was In Trouble Ahead of Earnings. What's Next After Its 17% Drop?", "sector": "Consumer Cyclical", "exchange": "NYSE", "sec_signal": null }, "levels": { "reference": 133.31, "downside": 117.98, "upside_1": 148.64, "upside_2": 163.97 }, "review": { "score": null, "status": "Majority with dissent", "summary": "The panel provisionally selects DKS for a Raw Try. The sealed record supports a testable question about whether inventory and promotional pressure are temporary or structural after a severe repricing. The current tape remains below VWAP, so this is a research case rather than a confirmed recovery or trading instruction.", "views": [ { "name": "Elena Vartanyan", "role": "independent statistical auditor", "icon": "๐ŸŽฏ", "view": "Start with the day, not the parade of green candles. The sealed intraday proxy had 127 advancers against 173 decliners across 300 fresh quotes. That is a defensive market, and it makes isolated strength interesting, not self-validating.", "reasoning": "There is also a lineage problem in the DKS record: one catalyst field names Lululemon, while the candidate is DKS. The current news context is unavailable, and the related alert is not safe to promote as verified fact. So the thesis must be narrowed to the operating question, not dressed up as a confirmed scandal." }, { "name": "Marcus Feld", "role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst", "icon": "๐ŸฆŠ", "view": "The headline backdrop is equally jumpy. Oil and Middle East supply fears are lifting energy narratives, while Bitcoin is being pulled through the Fed, oil, yen and bond-market story. This is a session where a headline can move a stock before the company has changed enough to justify the move.", "reasoning": "I would still keep ROIV above DKS for pure continuation. But if no case clears the Try standard, DKS has the more useful Raw question. That is a downgrade in certainty, not a rejection of the evidence." }, { "name": "Kenji Osei", "role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst", "icon": "๐Ÿง ", "view": "And the coverage boundary matters: the intraday quotes are complete and fresh, but the EOD layer was not captured. We have a reliable intraday surface, not a closing verdict. A source can confirm that an event was documented without confirming that the event explains the price.", "reasoning": "EAF is the reproducible near-miss: primary filing continuity, a named shutdown and idiosyncratic strength. But the facility completion is scheduled for early Q2 2027. That is too distant to prove a 15-session operating benefit. WDH has a fresh earnings event, but its detailed quarter remains secondary and accumulation is negative." }, { "name": "Priya Nandakumar", "role": "institutional risk and execution manager", "icon": "๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ", "view": "Exactly. In a defensive tape, event risk gets priced with a very short fuse. If the mechanism is weak, liquidity and enthusiasm leave together. That is not pessimism; it is what happens when the market stops subsidising a story.", "reasoning": "Then the provisional decision is Raw Try on DKS, with the falsifier in plain sight: worsening operating evidence, renewed distribution and failure around the captured reference levels. Anything stronger would be the room borrowing confidence from a headline it has not actually verified." }, { "name": "Nate Brooks", "role": "market structure and timing analyst", "icon": "๐Ÿ“ˆ", "view": "The broad tape is doing no one any favours. Pockets of strength exist, but the aggregate read is not a rising tide. I want the candidate whose next check is visible, not the one wearing the most dramatic percentage.", "reasoning": "That distinction works. DKS is not selected because the stock is secretly healthy. It is selected because the next evidence can separate a temporary reset from structural damage without requiring us to invent a rebound." } ], "conviction": { "status_phrase": "majority-with-dissent", "basis": "Support - DKS combines a dated operating record, exact deterioration indicators and a testable research question; Counter-case - the tape remains damaged and the causal narrative contains a material lineage concern; Unresolved - issuer-backed clarification of inventory, promotions and cash flow has not arrived.", "risk": "", "resolution_pct": 55.0, "counter_case_pct": 25.0, "unresolved_pct": 20.0 }, "context_roundtable": { "mode": "coffee", "status": "complete", "consulted_voice_ids": [ "elena", "marcus", "kenji", "priya", "nate" ], "summary": "The day combines defensive breadth with sharp, event-led pockets of strength. Oil and geopolitical headlines are supporting energy narratives, while cross-asset risks are pressuring Bitcoin. With 127 advancers versus 173 decliners across 300 fresh quotes and no captured EOD layer, the market is asking whether a company-specific story can survive beyond its first headline.", "long_read": "This is a market of selective conviction rather than broad participation. The sealed intraday proxy showed 127 advancers and 173 decliners across 300 fresh quotes as of 16:35 UTC, while the EOD layer remained unavailable. Energy received support from oil and Middle East supply concerns, but that support sits inside a wider risk backdrop involving geopolitics, rates, currencies and bonds.\n\nThe room kept returning to the same tension: a headline can be economically relevant without yet proving a durable company change. That distinction matters for the DKS research hypothesis. The question remains whether inventory and promotional pressure are temporary or structural; the promotional-pressure reporting is unverified and cannot be promoted into established fact. The case is useful because the next issuer-backed evidence can narrow the question, not because the wider tape has already endorsed a recovery.\n\nThe broader session therefore leaves a mixed imprint. Event-led strength deserves attention when it is matched by company-specific evidence, but weak breadth, missing closing confirmation and unsettled cross-asset risk make follow-through the scarce commodity. No model probability is supplied here to settle that uncertainty, so the room leaves the adverse tail visible rather than decorating it with false precision.", "transcript": [ { "speaker_id": "elena", "text": "The day's shape is defensive, and the numbers are plain: 127 advancers against 173 decliners across 300 fresh quotes. That is not a broad invitation to optimism. It is a market forcing every attractive story to show its work." }, { "speaker_id": "marcus", "text": "Meanwhile oil and Middle East supply fears are giving energy headlines a loud microphone. The microphone is not the message, but it does explain why some pockets of the tape look much healthier than the room.", "source_urls": [ "https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/energy-stocks-rise-premarket-oil-092239082.html", "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/premarket-movers-energy-stocks-rise-095904641.html" ] }, { "speaker_id": "nate", "text": "Loud pockets, yes. Broad participation, no. The tape has a few runners and a lot of people standing at the bus stop. I would not confuse motion with rotation." }, { "speaker_id": "priya", "text": "And the cross-asset backdrop is not gentle. Oil, geopolitics, the yen and bonds can turn a neat company story into a very expensive misunderstanding. Risk does not wait for the press release to become eloquent.", "source_urls": [ "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-hurdles-fed-oil-yen-risks-cloud-path-toward-85000/cZt3rYfRJUe" ] }, { "speaker_id": "kenji", "text": "There is also a boring but important boundary: the intraday quote coverage is complete, but the EOD layer was not captured. We know what the fresh surface showed. We do not have permission to pretend it was a closing statement." }, { "speaker_id": "marcus", "text": "That boundary is exactly why I resist treating every headline as noise. The energy reports describe a real geopolitical transmission channel. The question is whether it reaches company cash flow, production or demand, rather than stopping at the headline desk.", "source_urls": [ "https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/energy-stocks-rise-premarket-oil-092239082.html" ] }, { "speaker_id": "elena", "text": "Agreed, but the burden runs both ways. A mechanism can be real and still fail to support the stronger claim being made for the stock. Good news is not the same thing as a good fifteen-session path." }, { "speaker_id": "nate", "text": "That is the useful lens for DKS. The case is not 'the stock fell, therefore it must bounce.' It is 'there is a question about temporary versus structural pressure, and the next evidence has to answer it.' Much less glamorous. Much more honest." }, { "speaker_id": "priya", "text": "Less glamorous is doing a lot of work there. The promotional-pressure reporting is unverified, so it stays a hypothesis. If the market hears it as a fact, the room has already overdrawn the account." }, { "speaker_id": "kenji", "text": "Precisely. The clean way to handle the case is to separate the verified operating figures from the causal story attached to them. The first can be examined. The second still needs an issuer-backed bridge." }, { "speaker_id": "marcus", "text": "And ROIV shows the opposite temptation: a powerful reported clinical mechanism paired with a powerful tape. That is compelling, but a move near the top of its range can be confirmation and aftermath risk at the same time. Markets are annoyingly capable of both." }, { "speaker_id": "elena", "text": "Which is why the absence of model probabilities does not help or hurt the case. It simply leaves us without that extra context. Anyone filling the gap with certainty is doing decorative mathematics." }, { "speaker_id": "nate", "text": "The wider pattern is the same everywhere: headline, reaction, then the bill. Energy has to prove the supply story matters to earnings. Biotech has to prove the result survives the first burst. DKS has to prove the damage is not still spreading.", "source_urls": [ "https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/energy-stocks-rise-premarket-oil-092239082.html", "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-hurdles-fed-oil-yen-risks-cloud-path-toward-85000/cZt3rYfRJUe" ] }, { "speaker_id": "priya", "text": "And until that bill is paid, keep the claim narrow. A defensive market can reward a specific fact for an afternoon and punish an ambitious interpretation by breakfast." } ], "source_urls": [ "https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/energy-stocks-rise-premarket-oil-092239082.html", "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/premarket-movers-energy-stocks-rise-095904641.html", "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-hurdles-fed-oil-yen-risks-cloud-path-toward-85000/cZt3rYfRJUe" ] }, "context_roundtable_sources": [ { "event_id": "mi_evt_d96b1f8e6b757da56f164ea3", "headline": "Energy stocks rise premarket as oil prices climb on Middle East supply fears", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/energy-stocks-rise-premarket-oil-092239082.html", "publisher": "Investing.com", "source_quality": "market_context", "public_safe": true, "published_at": "2026-09-08T09:22:39Z", "available_at": "2026-09-08T10:40:05.177988+00:00" }, { "event_id": "mi_evt_f534f89173bac9b756c6c793", "headline": "Premarket movers: Energy stocks rise on Iran tensions, Eaton jumps on UBS upgrade", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/premarket-movers-energy-stocks-rise-095904641.html", "publisher": "Investing.com", "source_quality": "market_context", "public_safe": true, "published_at": "2026-09-08T09:59:04Z", "available_at": "2026-09-08T10:40:05.177988+00:00" }, { "event_id": "mi_evt_68bf0fcccb6674af0b829d3e", "headline": "Bitcoin Rally Faces Fresh Risks From Fed, Oil, Yen And Bond Markets As Spot Demand Weakens", "url": "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-hurdles-fed-oil-yen-risks-cloud-path-toward-85000/cZt3rYfRJUe", "publisher": "Stocktwits", "source_quality": "market_context", "public_safe": true, "published_at": "2026-09-08T09:30:58Z", "available_at": "2026-09-08T10:40:05.177988+00:00" } ] }, "updates": [ { "day": 15, "timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:33:31.211326Z", "date": "Session 15 ยท Sep 29, 2026 ยท 18:33 NYSE", "text": "DKS completed session 15 at +1.04% from the $133.31 tracking entry, after reaching +2.47% at best and -9.87% at worst. Checkpoints were +0.04% at session 1, -7.19% at session 5 and +0.47% at session 10. The September 8 Raw Try asked whether the recorded inventory deterioration was temporary or part of a deeper earnings reset; the related promotional-pressure claim remained unverified, and no fresh issuer evidence settled the cause. A separate post-market field showed $134.70, marked +0.15%. Final RSI, trend and 52-week readings are unavailable. Tracking ends here.", "price": 135.05, "pct": 1.31, "return_vs_entry_pct": 1.31, "return_vs_base_pct": 1.31, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.67, "session_day": 15, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$135.05 ยท +1.31% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": true, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": true, "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-e0376706de47a4376a14e3b5a8118c62414cd4ff3882f491278325f17411657f", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-08T21:10:32Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 14, "timestamp": "2026-09-28T21:53:37.927641Z", "date": "Session 14 ยท Sep 28, 2026 ยท 17:53 NYSE", "text": "DKS tracked return slipped 0.77 percentage points to +0.64% as shares fell 1.66% to $134.16, though the close stayed 0.29% above the session volume-weighted average price and the stock remains 6.31 points ahead of Consumer Cyclical over 20 sessions. Relative repair keeps the temporary-reset question open, but low dollar volume and the absence of a confirmed price structure leave the operating pressure unresolved.", "price": 134.16, "pct": 0.64, "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.64, "return_vs_base_pct": 0.64, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.69, "session_day": 14, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$134.16 ยท +0.64% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-28T21:25:58Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 14, "timestamp": "2026-09-28T20:09:18.682405Z", "date": "Session 14 ยท Sep 28, 2026 ยท 16:09 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked return recovered 0.81 percentage points to +1.41%, even as shares fell 0.99% on the day; the latest capture finished 0.98% above the session's volume-weighted average price on 0.49 times average volume. It leads Consumer Cyclical by 6.86 points over 20 sessions, but light turnover and the unresolved inventory and promotion question keep this recovery tentative.", "price": 135.08, "pct": 1.41, "return_vs_entry_pct": 1.33, "return_vs_base_pct": 1.33, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.86, "session_day": 14, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$135.08 ยท +1.33% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-28T19:21:40.218900Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 14, "timestamp": "2026-09-28T15:24:53.894559Z", "date": "Session 14 ยท Sep 28, 2026 ยท 11:24 NYSE", "text": "The DKS tracked return slipped from +2.34% to +0.60%, while price fell 2.81% below the $133.07 session VWAP on light volume. Its 20-session return still beats the sector by 4.77 points, but that cushion does not show that inventory and promotional pressure are temporary; the demand thesis remains unresolved.", "price": 132.6, "pct": 0.6, "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.53, "return_vs_base_pct": -0.53, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.87, "session_day": 14, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$132.60 ยท -0.53% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-28T14:06:10.888804Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 13, "timestamp": "2026-09-25T22:06:00.905914Z", "date": "Session 13 ยท Sep 25, 2026 ยท 18:06 NYSE", "text": "DKSโ€™s tracked return improved 2.17 points to +2.34%, with the late after-hours quote at $136.43 above the captured $134.70 VWAP; over 20 sessions it is now +3.54% against Consumer Cyclicalโ€™s โˆ’4.59%. That is meaningful market repair, but dollar turnover remains below its 20-day norm and the structure is unconfirmed, while the packet supplies no fresh operating evidence to settle whether inventory and promotions are temporary.", "price": 136.43, "pct": 2.34, "return_vs_entry_pct": 2.34, "return_vs_base_pct": 2.34, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.59, "session_day": 13, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$136.43 ยท +2.34% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": true, "active_relevant": true, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-3f790f17ba4478fe29c68433eb1f51c0d6312238eff860418c64c790afdc474f", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-25T21:27:58Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 13, "timestamp": "2026-09-25T15:00:19.646047Z", "date": "Session 13 ยท Sep 25, 2026 ยท 11:00 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked result improved 0.22 percentage points to +0.17%, but the 10 a.m. capture fell 1.20% to $131.65, 1.57% below VWAP near the range low on 0.09 times 20-day dollar volume. Its 20-session lead over Consumer Cyclical remains 5.35 points, yet this thin downside read does not settle whether inventory and promotions are temporary or evidence of an earnings reset.", "price": 131.65, "pct": 0.17, "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.25, "return_vs_base_pct": -1.25, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.2, "session_day": 13, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$131.65 ยท -1.25% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-25T14:06:22.073520Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 12, "timestamp": "2026-09-24T21:32:58.131362Z", "date": "Session 12 ยท Sep 24, 2026 ยท 17:32 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss narrowed a further 0.07 percentage points to 0.05% as shares rose 0.67% to $133.25, 0.32% above VWAP on 0.84 times average volume; the later post-market capture was $134.17, up 0.69% from the regular close. Its 20-session lead over Consumer Cyclical remains wide, but no price structure is confirmed, so the inventory-and-promotion versus earnings-reset question is still open.", "price": 133.25, "pct": -0.05, "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.05, "return_vs_base_pct": -0.05, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.21, "session_day": 12, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$133.25 ยท -0.05% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-24T21:04:25Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 12, "timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:18:30.199547Z", "date": "Session 12 ยท Sep 24, 2026 ยท 16:18 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss narrowed 0.81 points to 0.12% as shares rose 0.88% to $133.52 and held 0.52% above VWAP. The 20-session lead over Consumer Cyclical and positive accumulation support a repair, but turnover was only 0.51 times average and no price pattern is confirmed; the temporary-pressure versus earnings-reset question remains open.", "price": 133.52, "pct": -0.12, "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.16, "return_vs_base_pct": 0.16, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.02, "session_day": 12, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$133.52 ยท +0.16% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-24T19:21:16.869314Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 12, "timestamp": "2026-09-24T14:21:12.715677Z", "date": "Session 12 ยท Sep 24, 2026 ยท 10:21 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss widened 0.22 points to 0.93%, even as the snapshot showed a 0.86% bounce and price 0.54% above the session's volume-weighted average. Its 20-session return leads Consumer Cyclical by 13.73 points, but trading stayed light and no price pattern is confirmed; the recovery-versus-earnings-reset question remains open.", "price": 133.495, "pct": -0.93, "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.14, "return_vs_base_pct": 0.14, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.85, "session_day": 12, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$133.50 ยท +0.14% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-24T14:06:20.904650Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 11, "timestamp": "2026-09-23T21:45:07.416673Z", "date": "Session 11 ยท Sep 23, 2026 ยท 17:45 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss widened 0.33 points to 0.71% as shares fell 1.18%; they remained 0.27% above VWAP, but dollar volume was only 0.35 times the 20-day average. The intraday hold is a small counterpoint, while the large 20-session sector lag and light participation leave the recovery case unconfirmed.", "price": 132.36, "pct": -0.71, "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.71, "return_vs_base_pct": -0.71, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.1, "session_day": 11, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$132.36 ยท -0.71% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-23T20:54:55Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 11, "timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:30:03.853732Z", "date": "Session 11 ยท Sep 23, 2026 ยท 16:30 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked return improved 1.44 points to a 0.38% loss even as shares slipped 1.08% today and held just 0.27% above VWAP. Dollar volume was 0.24 times its 20-day average, with no confirmed price structure and a 19.64-point 20-session lag versus its sector; the inventory-pressure question remains unresolved, not a recovery signal.", "price": 132.5, "pct": -0.38, "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.61, "return_vs_base_pct": -0.61, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.69, "session_day": 11, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$132.50 ยท -0.61% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-23T19:35:00.588557Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 11, "timestamp": "2026-09-23T15:00:01.348158Z", "date": "Session 11 ยท Sep 23, 2026 ยท 11:00 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked result deteriorated 2.29 points to a 1.82% loss after a 2.75% decline below VWAP near the range floor on 0.09x volume. Consumer Cyclical-relative weakness and no confirmed structure erase the prior repair; the inventory-and-promotion question remains open.", "price": 130.25, "pct": -1.82, "return_vs_entry_pct": -2.3, "return_vs_base_pct": -2.3, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.77, "session_day": 11, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$130.25 ยท -2.30% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-23T14:07:21.397247Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 10, "timestamp": "2026-09-22T21:37:05.960128Z", "date": "Session 10 ยท Sep 22, 2026 ยท 17:37 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked result improved to 0.47%, 0.10 points better than the previous note, after an 8.34% advance that held above VWAP. The inventory-and-promotion question has a better tape and participation reached 1.65x average, yet DKS still trails Consumer Cyclical over 20 sessions and no confirmed structure turns repair into recovery.", "price": 133.94, "pct": 0.47, "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.47, "return_vs_base_pct": 0.47, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.06, "session_day": 10, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$133.94 ยท +0.47% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-22T20:44:12Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 10, "timestamp": "2026-09-22T20:31:28.832102Z", "date": "Session 10 ยท Sep 22, 2026 ยท 16:31 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked result improved to +0.37% after an 8.27% rise, with price 1.26% above VWAP on 1.21x average volume. The inventory-and-promotion question has a better tape and Consumer Cyclical-relative support, but participation is decelerating and no confirmed structure turns repair into recovery.", "price": 133.855, "pct": 0.37, "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.41, "return_vs_base_pct": 0.41, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.94, "session_day": 10, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$133.85 ยท +0.41% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-22T19:21:53.147856Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 10, "timestamp": "2026-09-22T14:41:12.397412Z", "date": "Session 10 ยท Sep 22, 2026 ยท 10:41 NYSE", "text": "DKS recovered 6.43 points to a -0.83% tracked loss as price rose 6.18% and moved 1.69% above VWAP. The inventory-and-promotion question gets a better tape, but participation was only 0.25x average, DKS remains far behind Consumer Cyclical over twenty sessions and no structure is confirmed; the broad, near-neutral model range does not turn repair into a recovery.", "price": 131.27, "pct": -0.83, "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.53, "return_vs_base_pct": -1.53, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 5.73, "session_day": 10, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$131.27 ยท -1.53% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": true, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-f1629edade7cb255b47db94c69be4ddef04d786d4e0a7cd5e2b29b8d961a1dea", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-22T14:06:32.230182Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 9, "timestamp": "2026-09-21T22:18:53.919247Z", "date": "Session 9 ยท Sep 21, 2026 ยท 18:18 NYSE", "text": "DKS tracked loss widened 0.22 points to -7.26% even as price rose 2.05% to 123.63 and held 1.17% above VWAP near the top of the range. The inventory-and-promotion reset gets a better print, but 0.73 times average volume, continued distribution, a 27.62-point Consumer Cyclical deficit and no confirmed structure keep the repair modest.", "price": 123.63, "pct": -7.26, "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.26, "return_vs_base_pct": -7.26, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.14, "session_day": 9, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$123.63 ยท -7.26% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-21T21:11:57Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 9, "timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:02:26.135237Z", "date": "Session 9 ยท Sep 21, 2026 ยท 16:02 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss improved 1.80 points to -7.04% as price rose 2.20% to 123.82 and held 1.17% above VWAP near the range high. The inventory-and-promotion reset gets a better print, but dollar volume is only 0.21 times average, distribution persists and the stock trails Consumer Cyclical by 27.74 points over twenty sessions; repair is still modest.", "price": 123.82, "pct": -7.04, "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.12, "return_vs_base_pct": -7.12, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.07, "session_day": 9, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$123.82 ยท -7.12% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-21T19:23:03.095376Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 9, "timestamp": "2026-09-21T15:04:06.396594Z", "date": "Session 9 ยท Sep 21, 2026 ยท 11:04 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss improved 0.28 points to -8.84% even as price eased 0.07% to 121.06 on just 0.12 times average volume, with no confirmed structure. The inventory-and-promotion reset remains a test, but the Consumer Cyclical-relative deficit and thin participation make this a modest accounting repair, not evidence that the thesis is working.", "price": 121.06, "pct": -8.84, "return_vs_entry_pct": -9.19, "return_vs_base_pct": -9.19, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.07, "session_day": 9, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$121.06 ยท -9.19% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-21T14:09:41.346729Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 8, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T22:28:37.542214Z", "date": "Session 8 ยท Sep 18, 2026 ยท 18:28 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss widened 0.53 points to -9.12% as price fell 2.24% to 121.15, below 123.37 VWAP near the bottom of its range on 0.86x average volume. The inventory-and-promotion reset remains a test, but distribution and a 27.61-point Consumer Cyclical-relative deficit show no repair.", "price": 121.15, "pct": -9.12, "return_vs_entry_pct": -9.12, "return_vs_base_pct": -9.12, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.88, "session_day": 8, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$121.15 ยท -9.12% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-18T21:24:13Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 8, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T19:42:04.525653Z", "date": "Session 8 ยท Sep 18, 2026 ยท 15:42 NYSE", "text": "DKS tracked loss widened 1.53 points to -8.59% as the latest capture fell 1.29% to 122.32, below 123.37 VWAP on 0.38x average volume. The inventory-and-promotion reset is weaker, not repaired: distribution and a 20-session gap versus Consumer Cyclical keep the thesis exposed.", "price": 122.32, "pct": -8.59, "return_vs_entry_pct": -8.24, "return_vs_base_pct": -8.24, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.08, "session_day": 8, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$122.32 ยท -8.24% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": true, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-bb1160b249f7da5179cad04f96ef001489e64283354e3158e9744c3e25edbb0d", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-18T19:21:09.426587Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 8, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T14:41:47.049113Z", "date": "Session 8 ยท Sep 18, 2026 ยท 10:41 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss widened 0.02 points to -7.06% as price slipped 0.13% to $123.76, 0.15% below VWAP on 0.09x average volume. The inventory-and-promotion reset remains under pressure: DKS trails Consumer Cyclical by 25.95 points over 20 sessions, with distribution and no confirmed structure offering no repair.", "price": 123.76, "pct": -7.06, "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.16, "return_vs_base_pct": -7.16, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.12, "session_day": 8, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$123.76 ยท -7.16% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-18T14:06:06.717745Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 7, "timestamp": "2026-09-17T22:21:39.447341Z", "date": "Session 7 ยท Sep 17, 2026 ยท 18:21 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss widened 0.33 points to -7.04% after only a 0.22% rise to USD 123.92. Price is 0.20% above VWAP on 1.24x average volume, but no structure is confirmed and the 20-session gap versus Consumer Cyclical is -29.15 points. The inventory-and-promotion reset remains under pressure rather than repaired.", "price": 123.92, "pct": -7.04, "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.04, "return_vs_base_pct": -7.04, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.27, "session_day": 7, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$123.92 ยท -7.04% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T20:28:54Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 7, "timestamp": "2026-09-17T15:24:54.921312Z", "date": "Session 7 ยท Sep 17, 2026 ยท 11:24 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss narrowed 0.67 points to -6.71% after a 0.52% rise to USD 124.29. Price stayed 0.34% below VWAP on 0.10x average volume, with distribution and no confirmed structure; its 20-session decline is -35.06% versus -5.76% for Consumer Cyclical. The temporary inventory-and-promotion reset remains under pressure rather than showing a recovery.", "price": 124.29, "pct": -6.71, "return_vs_entry_pct": -6.77, "return_vs_base_pct": -6.77, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.02, "session_day": 7, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$124.29 ยท -6.77% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-17T14:10:17.742927Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 6, "timestamp": "2026-09-16T20:27:44.722839Z", "date": "Session 6 ยท Sep 16, 2026 ยท 16:27 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss widened 1.16 points to -7.38% despite a 0.43% rise to .26. Price remained 0.64% below VWAP on 1.04x average volume near the bottom of its range, with no confirmed structure; the inventory-and-promotion repair thesis remains under pressure.", "price": 124.255, "pct": -7.38, "return_vs_entry_pct": -6.79, "return_vs_base_pct": -6.79, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.07, "session_day": 6, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$124.25 ยท -6.79% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-16T19:21:13.018409Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 6, "timestamp": "2026-09-16T14:49:05.303855Z", "date": "Session 6 ยท Sep 16, 2026 ยท 10:49 NYSE", "text": "DKS tracked loss is 6,22% as the latest capture moved 0,51% to USD 124,36, with price below VWAP on 0,63 times time-adjusted participation. The tracked result improved 0,97 points, but The inventory-and-promotion repair thesis remains under pressure.", "price": 124.355, "pct": -6.22, "return_vs_entry_pct": -6.72, "return_vs_base_pct": -6.72, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.47, "session_day": 6, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$124.36 ยท -6.72% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-16T14:06:40.306426Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 5, "timestamp": "2026-09-15T21:47:22.918524Z", "date": "Session 5 ยท Sep 15, 2026 ยท 17:47 NYSE", "text": "DKS tracked loss narrowed 2.00 points to -7.19% despite a 5.39% drop to USD 123.72, with price below VWAP and participation elevated at 2.50 times time-adjusted volume. The move is a sharp test of the inventory-and-promotion repair thesis; without confirmed structure, the improvement in the tracked result is not evidence of recovery.", "price": 123.72, "pct": -7.19, "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.19, "return_vs_base_pct": -7.19, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.36, "session_day": 5, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$123.72 ยท -7.19% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": { "phase": "post", "text": "Aftermarket update: $123.72 (0.00% vs regular close) ยท Sep 15, 2026 ยท 17:24 NYSE" }, "extended_hours": { "phase": "post", "price": 123.72, "ext_pct": 0.0, "as_of": "2026-09-15T21:24:04Z", "persisted": false }, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-15T21:24:04Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 5, "timestamp": "2026-09-15T19:27:19.871047Z", "date": "Session 5 ยท Sep 15, 2026 ยท 15:27 NYSE", "text": "DKS's current tape points to deterioration: it moved -5,76% to $123,24, with VWAP at 127,67 and volume at 1,67 times its three-month average. The tracked return is -5,19%, versus 0,00 points since the previous public note; Consumer Cyclical-relative wording remains headwind with a -32,19 point gap versus Consumer Cyclical, so the published thesis is not upgraded beyond what this move supports.", "price": 123.24, "pct": -5.19, "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.55, "return_vs_base_pct": -7.55, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.25, "session_day": 5, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$123.24 ยท -7.55% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-15T19:21:00.581079Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 5, "timestamp": "2026-09-15T16:13:03.443380Z", "date": "Session 5 ยท Sep 15, 2026 ยท 12:13 NYSE", "text": "DKS tracked loss widened 3.28 points to -5.19% as the current capture fell 3.46% to $126.25, 2.00% below VWAP near the bottom of its range on 1.15 times average volume. The inventory-and-promotion question remains a researchable operating hypothesis, but a 35.67% twenty-session decline versus a 4.63% Consumer Cyclical decline, persistent distribution and no confirmed structure make the proposed repair less credible.", "price": 126.25, "pct": -5.19, "return_vs_entry_pct": -5.3, "return_vs_base_pct": -5.3, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.39, "session_day": 5, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$126.25 ยท -5.30% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": true, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-68f652e06d706ddf23a765b790bb436b6474e977a4cf9d03e94e5546c8a17184", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-15T15:52:36.865021Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 4, "timestamp": "2026-09-14T23:36:13.606246Z", "date": "Session 4 ยท Sep 14, 2026 ยท 19:36 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss widened to -1.91% after the latest capture fell 3.15% to $130.77, below VWAP near the lower range with no confirmed structure. Severe Consumer Cyclical underperformance and continued distribution leave the inventory-and-promotion recovery question as a fragile repair, not evidence of recovery.", "price": 130.77, "pct": -1.91, "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.91, "return_vs_base_pct": -1.91, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0, "session_day": 4, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$130.77 ยท -1.91% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-14T22:19:42Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 4, "timestamp": "2026-09-14T22:40:14.996285Z", "date": "Session 4 ยท Sep 14, 2026 ยท 18:40 NYSE", "text": "DKS tracked loss widened 1.48 points to -1.91% as the latest capture fell 3.15% to $130.77, 0.89% below VWAP near the lower range on 0.91x average volume. Severe Consumer Cyclical relative weakness and no confirmed structure leave the inventory-and-promotion recovery question as a fragile, unproven repair.", "price": 130.77, "pct": -1.91, "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.91, "return_vs_base_pct": -1.91, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.59, "session_day": 4, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$130.77 ยท -1.91% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-14T20:01:27Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 4, "timestamp": "2026-09-14T14:57:11.584088Z", "date": "Session 4 ยท Sep 14, 2026 ยท 10:57 NYSE", "text": "DKS tracked result worsened 1.72 points to -0.43% as the current capture fell 1.59% to $132.88, though price stayed 0.47% above VWAP on only 0.11 times average volume. The inventory-and-promotion question remains open, but severe Consumer Cyclical underperformance, distribution and no confirmed structure make this a fragile repair rather than evidence of recovery.", "price": 132.88, "pct": -0.43, "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.32, "return_vs_base_pct": -0.32, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.61, "session_day": 4, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$132.88 ยท -0.32% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-14T14:05:55.081234Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 3, "timestamp": "2026-09-11T22:10:23.800418Z", "date": "Session 3 ยท Sep 11, 2026 ยท 18:10 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked result was effectively unchanged, easing 0.02 points to +1.29% as the latest capture rose 2.38% to $135.03 above the $134.32 VWAP reference in the upper part of its range on 0.98 times average volume. The inventory-and-promotion recovery question remains open, but distribution and severe Consumer Cyclical relative weakness make this a modest repair rather than an established recovery.", "price": 135.03, "pct": 1.29, "return_vs_entry_pct": 1.29, "return_vs_base_pct": 1.29, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.02, "session_day": 3, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$135.03 ยท +1.29% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T21:24:14Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 3, "timestamp": "2026-09-11T19:50:54.497865Z", "date": "Session 3 ยท Sep 11, 2026 ยท 15:50 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked result improved 1.34 points to +1.31% as price rose 2.40% to $135.06 and held above VWAP near the upper part of its range. The repair is modest and lightly supported by 0.62 times average volume, while distribution and severe sector-relative weakness persist; the inventory-and-promotion recovery question remains open rather than established.", "price": 135.055, "pct": 1.31, "return_vs_entry_pct": 1.31, "return_vs_base_pct": 1.31, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.13, "session_day": 3, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$135.06 ยท +1.31% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T19:21:33.380908Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 3, "timestamp": "2026-09-11T14:46:43.752656Z", "date": "Session 3 ยท Sep 11, 2026 ยท 10:46 NYSE", "text": "DKS tracked loss narrowed 0.10 points to -0.03% as the stock rose 1.26% to $133.55 and moved 0.09% above VWAP in the middle of its range. That is a modest repair after the prior note, but volume was only 0.15 times average, distribution persists and no structure is confirmed; the inventory-and-promotion recovery question remains open rather than established.", "price": 133.55, "pct": -0.03, "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.18, "return_vs_base_pct": 0.18, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.31, "session_day": 3, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$133.55 ยท +0.18% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T14:06:25.411176Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 2, "timestamp": "2026-09-10T21:48:01.421463Z", "date": "Session 2 ยท Sep 10, 2026 ยท 17:48 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss narrowed 0.37 points to -0.13% since the previous public note. The stock slipped 0.16% to USD 133.14 and finished 0.17% below VWAP on 0.86 times average volume with no confirmed structure; severe twenty-session underperformance keeps the inventory-and-promotion recovery question open, not resolved.", "price": 133.14, "pct": -0.13, "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.13, "return_vs_base_pct": -0.13, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.49, "session_day": 2, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$133.14 ยท -0.13% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:13:14Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 2, "timestamp": "2026-09-10T20:00:56.128471Z", "date": "Session 2 ยท Sep 10, 2026 ยท 16:00 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked loss narrowed 0.25 points to -0.50% since the previous public note, although the latest capture fell 0.65% to USD 132.49. Price was 0.17% below VWAP in the middle of its range on 0.55 times average volume; severe twenty-session underperformance versus Consumer Cyclical and the absent structure keep the temporary-reset recovery question unresolved.", "price": 132.49, "pct": -0.5, "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.62, "return_vs_base_pct": -0.62, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.54, "session_day": 2, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$132.49 ยท -0.62% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-10T19:21:10.275300Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 2, "timestamp": "2026-09-10T14:51:46.959327Z", "date": "Session 2 ยท Sep 10, 2026 ยท 10:51 NYSE", "text": "DKS tracked gain narrowed 0.79 points to -0.75% since the last public note. The latest capture fell 3.19% to USD 129.10, 1.31% below VWAP at the bottom of its range on 0.10 times average volume, with decelerating participation and no confirmed structure. The temporary-reset question is under renewed pressure: Consumer Cyclical underperformance and the failed repair leave recovery unproven.", "price": 129.1, "pct": -0.75, "return_vs_entry_pct": -3.16, "return_vs_base_pct": -3.16, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.2, "session_day": 2, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$129.10 ยท -3.16% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-10T14:06:15.609526Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 1, "timestamp": "2026-09-09T22:21:38.472442Z", "date": "Session 1 ยท Sep 9, 2026 ยท 18:21 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked gain narrowed from +0.64% to +0.04% since the last public note even as the latest capture rose 0.75% to .36, above VWAP near the top of its range on 0.90x average volume. The early repair is consistent with the temporary-reset question, but distribution, no confirmed structure and a large 20-session sector lag leave recovery unproven.", "price": 133.36, "pct": 0.04, "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.04, "return_vs_base_pct": 0.04, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.49, "session_day": 1, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$133.36 ยท +0.04% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-09T21:22:41Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 1, "timestamp": "2026-09-09T20:21:25.964853Z", "date": "Session 1 ยท Sep 9, 2026 ยท 16:21 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked gain improved 0.18 points to +0.64% as the latest capture rose 1.24% to USD 134.01, 0.69% above VWAP on 0.82x average volume. The early repair is consistent with the temporary-reset question, but distribution, no confirmed structure and a 29.13-point 20-session lag to Consumer Cyclical leave recovery unproven.", "price": 134.011, "pct": 0.64, "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.53, "return_vs_base_pct": 0.53, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.74, "session_day": 1, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$134.01 ยท +0.53% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-09T19:21:49.561649Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 1, "timestamp": "2026-09-09T14:45:47.793030Z", "date": "Session 1 ยท Sep 9, 2026 ยท 10:45 NYSE", "text": "DKS's tracked result improved 1.17 points to +0.46% as the latest capture rose 0.46% to USD 133.03, 0.72% above VWAP on 0.20x average volume. That is an early price repair, but no structure is confirmed and DKS still trails Consumer Cyclical by 29.83 points over 20 sessions; the temporary-reset hypothesis remains unproven.", "price": 133.03, "pct": 0.46, "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.21, "return_vs_base_pct": -0.21, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.5, "session_day": 1, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$133.03 ยท -0.21% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-09T14:06:47.281893Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 0, "timestamp": "2026-09-08T22:00:43.461447Z", "date": "Session 0 ยท Sep 8, 2026 ยท 18:00 NYSE", "text": "DKS opens its 15-session record at -0.71% after a 4.87% drop to $132.37, 0.52% below VWAP on 1.41x average volume, with no confirmed structure. The temporary-reset question is not visible in price yet: distribution and a 33.42-point 20-session lag versus Consumer Cyclical leave the $117.98 downside reference as the explicit boundary.", "price": 132.37, "pct": -0.71, "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.71, "return_vs_base_pct": -0.71, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.48, "session_day": 0, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$132.37 ยท -0.71% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-08T21:10:32Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 0, "timestamp": "2026-09-08T19:47:57.534003Z", "date": "Session 0 ยท Sep 8, 2026 ยท 15:47 NYSE", "text": "DKS opens its 15-session research record at -0.14% as the first capture fell 4.42% to $133.00, 0.52% below the $133.69 VWAP. With no confirmed structure, distribution and a 33.19-point 20-session lag versus Consumer Cyclical, the temporary-reset hypothesis is not yet visible in price; the $117.98 downside reference remains the explicit boundary.", "price": 133.0, "pct": -0.14, "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.23, "return_vs_base_pct": -0.23, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.23, "session_day": 0, "reference_price": 133.31, "reference_text": "$133.00 ยท -0.23% from $133.31 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-09-08T19:22:03.550453Z", "vwap_as_of": null } ], "observed_outcomes": [ { "label": "+1 sessions", "status": "complete", "return": 0.04, "reference_text": "+0.04% from $133.31 base", "price": 133.36, "price_basis": null, "observation_date": null, "updated": "Sep 9, 2026 ยท 17:05 NYSE", "mfe": 0.91, "mae": -3.14 }, { "label": "+5 sessions", "status": "complete", "return": -7.19, "reference_text": "-7.19% from $133.31 base", "price": 123.72, "price_basis": null, "observation_date": null, "updated": "Sep 15, 2026 ยท 17:05 NYSE", "mfe": 1.79, "mae": -7.78 }, { "label": "+10 sessions", "status": "complete", "return": 0.47, "reference_text": "+0.47% from $133.31 base", "price": 133.94, "price_basis": null, "observation_date": null, "updated": "Sep 22, 2026 ยท 17:06 NYSE", "mfe": 1.79, "mae": -9.87 }, { "label": "+15 sessions", "status": "complete", "return": 1.04, "reference_text": "+1.04% from $133.31 base", "price": 134.7, "price_basis": null, "observation_date": null, "updated": "Sep 29, 2026 ยท 17:05 NYSE", "mfe": 2.47, "mae": -9.87 } ], "candidate_comparison_history": [ { "day": 0, "timestamp": "2026-09-08T19:47:57.534003Z", "comparison": { "schema_version": "public-candidate-comparison.v1", "captured_at": "2026-09-08T19:47:57.534003Z", "base_definition": "Candidates use the publication reference; benchmarks use the previous regular close.", "source": "sealed_update_market_context + canonical_candidate_snapshot + market_trajectory + public_market_snapshot", "rows": [ { "symbol": "DKS", "role": "selected", "price": 133.0, "base_price": 133.31, "return_since_base_pct": -0.2325, "session_return_pct": -4.42, "change_since_prior_pct": -0.0527, "volume_ratio": 0.99, "rsi": 21.18, "vwap": 133.69, "vwap_distance_pct": -0.5161, "position_52w_pct": 54.4, "extended_hours_pct": null, "as_of": "2026-09-08T19:22:03.550453Z", "source": "yfinance_quote", "name": "DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.", "episode_id": "narrative:DKS:7466077d84dc1b82", "ema_trend": "141.23 > 158.91 > 182.69", "vwap_state": "below", "selection_as_of": "2026-09-08T17:17:11Z", "price_as_of": "2026-09-08T19:22:03.550453Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "symbol": "ROIV", "role": "alternative", "price": 41.18, "base_price": 42.14, "return_since_base_pct": -2.2781, 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"below", "selection_as_of": "2026-09-08T17:17:44Z", "price_as_of": "2026-09-08T19:20:37Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "symbol": "CHA", "role": "alternative", "price": 12.61, "base_price": 12.43, "return_since_base_pct": 1.4481, "session_return_pct": 8.1475, "change_since_prior_pct": 0.0, "volume_ratio": 1.31, "rsi": 76.55, "vwap": 12.33, "vwap_distance_pct": 2.2709, "position_52w_pct": 67.44, "extended_hours_pct": null, "as_of": "2026-09-08T19:19:52Z", "source": "yfinance_quote", "name": "Chagee Holdings Limited", "episode_id": "n0:CHA:2026-09-08", "ema_trend": "11.52 > 11.15 > 11.17", "vwap_state": "above", "selection_as_of": "2026-09-08T15:20:03.650655Z", "price_as_of": "2026-09-08T19:19:52Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "symbol": "EAF", "role": "alternative", "price": 6.6, "base_price": 7.24, "return_since_base_pct": -8.8398, "session_return_pct": 6.4516, "change_since_prior_pct": -4.9553, "volume_ratio": 1.44, "rsi": 53.08, "vwap": 7.21, "vwap_distance_pct": -8.4605, "position_52w_pct": 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