AVAV episode 20260910_AVAV_MIDDAY
Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.
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"public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/coverage/avav/2026-09-10/midday/",
"published_at": "2026-09-10T18:24:46.693280Z",
"updated_at": "2026-10-05T22:31:55Z",
"lifecycle": {
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"stage": "closed"
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"instrument": {
"type": "equity",
"symbol": "AVAV",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"name": "AeroVironment, Inc."
},
"technical_reference": {
"status": "ok",
"reference_price": 157.4,
"model_downside_reference": 145.76,
"model_upside_scenario_1": 169.04,
"model_upside_scenario_2": 180.68,
"atr_14": 7.76,
"method": "reference_price_plus_minus_atr14"
},
"public_content": {
"date": "September 10, 2026",
"generated_at": "2026-09-10T18:24:46.693280Z",
"original_published_at": null,
"session_tag": "midday",
"label": "Market coverage",
"try_label": "Try of the Day",
"public_status": "Try of the Day",
"why_today": "The latest ordered AVAV prices are approximately 154.50-154.55 against the 153.21 VWAP reference, implying an immediate cushion of approximately 0.8-0.9%. These captures are not synchronous. MDA’s active H15 model context is 53.7% versus AVAV’s 50.4%, with a less adverse sealed H15 tail; both are bounded context from eight comparable cases, not a selection rule. AVAV’s larger-frame weakness, execution risk and need for dated backlog or program-conversion evidence remain explicit.",
"entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: AVAV is the Try of the Day because its issuer-linked event, defense-demand mechanism, exceptional participation and largely retained same-day reaction form the docket's most defensible prospective S0-to-S15 path. The thesis requires the market response to hold while dated issuer evidence converts backlog and program demand into orders, revenue or delivery progress. Invalidation boundary: The thesis fails if AVAV loses the 153.21 VWAP reference and then the supplied 145.76 downside reference without recovery, or if subsequent issuer evidence shows backlog deterioration, missing program conversion or weakening cash-flow execution.",
"reference_price": 157.4,
"scanner": {
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"reference": 157.4,
"score": null,
"score_version": "legacy research",
"change": 11.79,
"volume": 5095884,
"average_volume": 1698820,
"volume_ratio": 3.0,
"rsi": 45.56,
"ema_trend": "148.91 > 154.07 > 158.19",
"position_52w": 37.61,
"atr_14": 7.76,
"vwap": 153.21,
"vwap_state": "above",
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"relative_strength": {
"excess_pct": 12.57,
"index": "QQQ",
"index_chg_pct": -0.78,
"status": "idiosyncratic"
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"volume_percentile": {
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"percentile": 96.8,
"status": "exceptional",
"today_vol": 5095884
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"extension": {
"atr": 7.76,
"dist_atr": 0.43,
"ema_ref": 154.07,
"status": "healthy"
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"status": "strong",
"z": 2.39
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"earnings_warning": {
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"earnings_date": null,
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"status": "clear"
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"extended_hours": {
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"market_state": "REGULAR",
"phase": "regular",
"post_market_pct": null,
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"short_pct_float": 9.55,
"days_to_cover": 2.81,
"catalyst": "AVAV Q1 Earnings Call Centers on LOCUST Scale-Up & Second-Half Ramp-Up",
"sector": "Industrials",
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
"sec_signal": null
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"levels": {
"reference": 157.4,
"downside": 145.76,
"upside_1": 169.04,
"upside_2": 180.68
},
"review": {
"score": null,
"status": "Try Of The Day",
"summary": "The latest ordered AVAV prices are approximately 154.50-154.55 against the 153.21 VWAP reference, implying an immediate cushion of approximately 0.8-0.9%. These captures are not synchronous. MDA’s active H15 model context is 53.7% versus AVAV’s 50.4%, with a less adverse sealed H15 tail; both are bounded context from eight comparable cases, not a selection rule. AVAV’s larger-frame weakness, execution risk and need for dated backlog or program-conversion evidence remain explicit.",
"views": [
{
"name": "Elena Vartanyan",
"role": "independent statistical auditor",
"icon": "🎯",
"view": "Start with the day, not the tickers. The sealed proxy has 208 decliners against 91 advancers across 300 fresh quotes. Oil, producer prices and yields make this a demanding environment for continuation, although breadth is context rather than a ranking formula.",
"reasoning": "Both model comparisons come from eight comparable cases, and the SEC-aware inputs are contextual rather than point-in-time validated. The public record now presents probability and adverse tail together instead of using one side asymmetrically."
},
{
"name": "Marcus Feld",
"role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
"icon": "🦊",
"view": "Then the policy question is prospective: which company mechanism can remain useful through fifteen sessions? A large print, an internal score or a good story cannot substitute for mechanism, participation, relative behavior and a falsifiable path.",
"reasoning": "After these repairs, AVAV still holds the same provisional Try of the Day. The thesis is narrower at the margin: the market response and dated program conversion must survive the next checks."
},
{
"name": "Nate Brooks",
"role": "market structure and timing analyst",
"icon": "📈",
"view": "AVAV has heavy participation and held most of its reaction across five observations, but the larger frames still lean down. I see a forceful repair, not an established trend. CMRC has the cleaner near-term chart sequence, though its last move is abrupt.",
"reasoning": "The alternatives remain visible as evidence-led rows. CMRC’s recovery structure, CULP’s fading post-earnings move and TSSI’s unreconciled pivot are described without assigning ballot positions."
},
{
"name": "Priya Nandakumar",
"role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
"icon": "🛡️",
"view": "AVAV also has the best practical capacity in the retained set: roughly $802 million of observed dollar volume and broad options coverage. That helps observability, not safety. The weak twenty-session structure and acquisition-era balance-sheet risks still matter.",
"reasoning": "That narrower cushion matters for the first checkpoint. It does not erase AVAV’s participation, but it makes the 153.21 level a tighter test and keeps 145.76 as the supplied downside reference."
},
{
"name": "Kenji Osei",
"role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
"icon": "🧠",
"view": "The issuer-linked filing and explicit episode identity make AVAV auditable. CULP has even cleaner current-lineage simplicity, but lineage alone does not make its fade below VWAP a continuation thesis.",
"reasoning": "The hash differences, chart omission for TSSI and provider-label mismatches remain representation or coverage warnings. They do not change the panel case, AVAV episode or sealed evidence, so they do not trigger another Desk."
}
],
"conviction": {
"status_phrase": "recorded",
"basis": "Support remains in the issuer-linked mechanism, operating context and retained participation. The counter-case is stronger after correcting the immediate cushion and acknowledging MDA’s more favorable active-model context. Larger-frame structure, execution conversion and asynchronous captures remain unresolved.",
"risk": "",
"resolution_pct": 60.0,
"counter_case_pct": 25.0,
"unresolved_pct": 15.0
},
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"status": "complete",
"consulted_voice_ids": [
"elena",
"marcus",
"kenji",
"priya",
"nate"
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"summary": "The day’s broad backdrop was defensive participation under simultaneous energy, inflation, rate and geopolitical pressure. The complete 300-name intraday proxy recorded 208 decliners and 91 advancers, a net -39%, with 100% fresh-quote coverage; the EOD breadth layer was unavailable. Index futures were comparatively resilient, but that resilience was narrow rather than broad market permission.",
"long_read": "Oil remained above $100 as U.S.-Iran escalation raised geopolitical risk, while August U.S. PPI final demand rose 0.4%, including a 1.1% increase in goods and 0.1% in services. Treasury yields rose despite reported intervention, and the ECB raised key rates by 25 basis points as the conflict pushed prices higher. OPEC’s 2026 demand outlook was modest and uneven, with OECD demand forecast down 0.1 million barrels per day and non-OECD demand up 0.5 million.\n\nAgainst that pressure, futures and selected large-cap leadership held up, including Nvidia’s reported relative strength. The contrast matters: index stability can coexist with weak participation and concentrated leadership. For the selected AVAV episode, the defense context is relevant background, but this Coffee does not rescore the candidate or reopen the sealed decision. It simply records the macro conditions that the existing thesis must operate within.",
"transcript": [
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "The broad tape is defensive, not uniformly broken. The complete intraday proxy has 208 decliners against 91 advancers, or -39% net, with every quote fresh. The EOD breadth layer is unavailable, so we should keep this as an intraday participation reading.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/BLS_gov/status/2098026303513325898"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "That explains the apparent contradiction between resilient futures and weak breadth. A few index leaders can hold the headline while participation thins underneath. Nvidia’s relative strength is evidence of concentration, not proof that risk appetite is broad.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/10/nvidia-is-suddenly-outpacing-the-sp-500-expect-tha"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "The cross-asset pressure is coherent. Oil above $100, firmer producer prices and rising long-term yields all make duration and operating-cost assumptions harder to underwrite. That is a background risk boundary for every company story, not a candidate score.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-091026/card/brent-holds-above-100-on-u-s-iran-escalation-why-china-s-key-to-the-oil-rally--PA587HxZxKsQcNIlC7zb?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo",
"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2098053562823483532",
"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2098053565025595663"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "Policy is leaning against the market’s wish for easy conditions. The ECB’s 25-basis-point increase, explicitly linked to conflict-driven prices, shows how geopolitical supply risk can become a monetary-policy problem. The OPEC outlook is also uneven rather than a simple global-demand boom.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/ecb/status/2098060589759074407",
"https://x.com/OPECSecretariat/status/2098030005020246138"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "The important market-structure distinction is between headline resilience and underlying breadth. The intraday proxy has complete coverage, but its source delay ranges up to 264.6 seconds even though the median is zero. That makes the direction useful context while keeping precision bounded.",
"source_urls": [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/commerzbank-says-oil-prices-remain-101717902.html"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "The inflation evidence is specific enough to matter without being exaggerated. Final-demand PPI rose 0.4% in August, with goods contributing 1.1% and services 0.1%; those are levels of reported monthly change, not a claim about every company’s costs.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/BLS_gov/status/2098026303513325898"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "The market is therefore sorting for mechanisms that can survive a less forgiving discount-rate and energy backdrop. That helps explain why a defense-linked AVAV narrative can remain relevant in the day’s context, but it does not add evidence to the sealed company dossier or alter the decision.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-oil-prices-yields-meta-spacex-apple-iphone-inflation-data?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo",
"https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-091026/card/brent-holds-above-100-on-u-s-iran-escalation-why-china-s-key-to-the-oil-rally--PA587HxZxKsQcNIlC7zb?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "OPEC’s split forecast reinforces the need for selectivity: OECD demand is projected down 0.1 million barrels per day while non-OECD demand is projected up 0.5 million. Aggregate growth of 0.4 million is positive, but its distribution is uneven and does not remove regional or financing risk.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/OPECSecretariat/status/2098030005020246138"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "Source quality also differs across the day. BLS, OPEC and the ECB provide primary signals; the futures, oil and index-regime items are contextual reporting. We can connect them as a backdrop, but we should not turn headlines into a new ranking exercise.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/BLS_gov/status/2098026303513325898",
"https://x.com/OPECSecretariat/status/2098030005020246138",
"https://x.com/ecb/status/2098060589759074407",
"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/10/this-market-indicator-is-sending-a-warning-signal"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "So the closing read is simple: futures resilience, concentrated leadership and defensive breadth can all be true at once. The sealed AVAV decision remains unchanged; this Coffee supplies the day-level conditions against which its already-defined checks will be observed.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/10/this-market-indicator-is-sending-a-warning-signal"
]
}
],
"source_urls": [
"https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/commerzbank-says-oil-prices-remain-101717902.html",
"https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-091026/card/brent-holds-above-100-on-u-s-iran-escalation-why-china-s-key-to-the-oil-rally--PA587HxZxKsQcNIlC7zb?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo",
"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/10/nvidia-is-suddenly-outpacing-the-sp-500-expect-tha",
"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/10/this-market-indicator-is-sending-a-warning-signal",
"https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-oil-prices-yields-meta-spacex-apple-iphone-inflation-data?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo",
"https://x.com/BLS_gov/status/2098026303513325898",
"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2098053562823483532",
"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2098053565025595663",
"https://x.com/OPECSecretariat/status/2098030005020246138",
"https://x.com/ecb/status/2098060589759074407"
]
},
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"headline": "Commerzbank Says Oil Prices Remain High, Treasuries Stabilize, US Equity Futures Flat",
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"headline": "Nvidia Is Suddenly Outpacing the S&P 500. Expect That to Continue.",
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"headline": "This Market Indicator Is Sending a Warning Signal to Investors. Here's What History Says the S&P 500 Does Next.",
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"headline": "Dow Jones Futures Rise, Oil Prices Keep Climbing; Inflation Data Due.",
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"updates": [
{
"day": 17,
"timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:31:55Z",
"date": "Session 17 · Oct 5, 2026 · 18:31 NASDAQ",
"text": "At session 15, AVAV’s completed tracked return was -10.86%, after a best recorded gain of +6.73% and a worst excursion of -12.13%. The original thesis tied an issuer-supported defense-demand story to future orders, revenue and deliveries, with strong initial participation as an early check. Price crossed the stated $145.76 downside reference on September 29, and the public record never supplied dated proof that backlog converted into orders or deliveries. This closes the market test; it does not disprove that defense demand existed. October 5 after-hours fields conflict: one quote lists $139.84 while attached market data lists $139.30. Final RSI, trend and 52-week-position readings were unavailable. No further tracking follows.",
"price": 142.22,
"pct": -9.64,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.64,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.64,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 17,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$142.22 · -9.64% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": true,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-9b1f18310e40de173c3a5d258e4d111d0ecfeb58c9667add98ecc210d924cace",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:20:03Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-30T21:56:10.771238Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Sep 30, 2026 · 17:56 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV tracked loss widened 1.24 percentage points to 9.64% as the $142.22 capture sat 1.13% below VWAP on below-average volume and near the session low. Price remains below the published $145.76 downside reference; a 1.98-point 20-session edge over Industrials does not restore that broken condition, and the supplied record still lacks dated backlog-to-orders or delivery confirmation.",
"price": 142.25,
"pct": -9.64,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.63,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.63,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.63,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$142.25 · -9.63% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-30T19:58:16.738162Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-30T21:56:10.771238Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Sep 30, 2026 · 17:56 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV tracked loss widened 1.24 percentage points to 9.64% as the $142.22 capture sat 1.13% below VWAP on below-average volume and near the session low. Price remains below the published $145.76 downside reference; a 1.98-point 20-session edge over Industrials does not restore that broken condition, and the supplied record still lacks dated backlog-to-orders or delivery confirmation.",
"price": 142.22,
"pct": -9.64,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.64,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.64,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.01,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$142.22 · -9.64% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-30T20:55:43Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-30T15:12:42.544476Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Sep 30, 2026 · 11:12 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV tracked loss narrowed 0.60 percentage points to 8.40%, but the 10 a.m. capture at $143.23 remained 0.41% below the session average price weighted by volume and below the published $145.76 downside reference; volume so far was 14% of its three-month daily average. The 20-session reading sits 1.92 points ahead of Industrials, but this early relative cushion does not restore the crossed price condition, and the packet adds no dated evidence of backlog turning into orders or deliveries.",
"price": 143.23,
"pct": -8.4,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.0,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.0,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 14,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$143.23 · -9.00% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-30T14:10:11.628897Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:53:01.128312Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Sep 29, 2026 · 17:53 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked loss widened 0.42 points to 9.00% as shares fell 2.71% to $143.24, 1.08% below VWAP and still below the $145.76 downside reference. Its 20-session return now nearly matches Industrials, and no dated backlog-conversion evidence is in the packet; continued price weakness deepens pressure on a thesis still short of market confirmation.",
"price": 143.24,
"pct": -9.0,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.0,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.0,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.34,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$143.24 · -9.00% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-29T21:24:19Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:45:32.446726Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Sep 29, 2026 · 15:45 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked loss widened another 0.46 points to 8.58% as the latest regular-session capture fell 2.35% to $143.78, below both the $144.80 session volume-weighted average price and the published $145.76 downside reference. Its 20-session edge over Industrials is now only 0.42 points, with dollar volume at 38% of its 20-day norm; the price break deepens the pressure, while the packet still offers no dated evidence of backlog converting into orders or deliveries.",
"price": 143.775,
"pct": -8.58,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -8.66,
"return_vs_base_pct": -8.66,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.75,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$143.78 · -8.66% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-29T19:21:52.249581Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-09-29T14:52:17.131287Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Sep 29, 2026 · 10:52 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked loss widened 1.66 points to 8.12%, and the captured $144.95 price is now below both the $153.21 event reference and the published $145.76 downside boundary. That crosses the thesis's stated price condition; the packet still has no dated backlog conversion, and its 20-session edge over Industrials has narrowed to 0.88 points. The model leans lower, but half the feature set is unavailable, so it reinforces caution without explaining the break.",
"price": 144.9533,
"pct": -8.12,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -7.91,
"return_vs_base_pct": -7.91,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.45,
"session_day": 13,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$144.95 · -7.91% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": true,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-1a14ee067b304b4cd0e3dd7198f9f9be2600f7026f302b7440adca573f89b238",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-29T14:06:23.151493Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-09-28T21:55:58.005429Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Sep 28, 2026 · 17:55 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV tracked loss widened 0.72 points to -6.46% as shares fell 3.17% to $147.23, below the $153.21 event reference and captured volume-weighted average price; its 20-session lead over Industrials remains 4.24 points while the sector is down 4.72%. The $145.76 downside boundary has not been lost, but dollar volume is 46% of its 20-day average and price structure remains unconfirmed, leaving the backlog-conversion thesis under pressure.",
"price": 147.23,
"pct": -6.46,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -6.46,
"return_vs_base_pct": -6.46,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.7,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$147.23 · -6.46% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-28T21:25:20Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-09-28T20:09:20.273514Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Sep 28, 2026 · 16:09 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked loss widened 1.34 points to -5.74% as shares fell 2.44% and finished 0.44% below the session's volume-weighted average price on 0.42 times average volume. The 20-session lead over Industrials remains 4.93 points, but it does not offset the renewed price weakness; the prepared record still lacks dated backlog conversion and a confirmed structure.",
"price": 148.34,
"pct": -5.74,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.76,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.76,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.82,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$148.34 · -5.76% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-28T19:21:40.218900Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-09-28T14:50:50.246470Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Sep 28, 2026 · 10:50 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV tracked loss deepened one percentage point to 4.40% on session 12, while the latest capture sat 0.31% above the session VWAP of $149.16 but below the $153.21 event reference on 0.13 times average volume. Its 20-session lead over Industrials remains, yet no confirmed structure or dated backlog conversion appears; the thesis is under pressure and unresolved.",
"price": 149.625,
"pct": -4.4,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.94,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.94,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.54,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$149.62 · -4.94% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-2f184ea51176cee89de69cfcd92c5c51d4461581eb9b4937676cfc801af67dfe",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-28T14:06:10.888804Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-09-25T22:47:43.657234Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Sep 25, 2026 · 18:47 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked return fell 2.26 percentage points to -3.40% on session 11. At $152.05, price was 1.85% below the $154.91 VWAP on 0.66 times average volume, with no confirmed structure; its 20-session edge over Industrials narrowed to 4.53 points. The tape is now below the $153.21 event VWAP, pressuring confirmation, while the backlog thesis still awaits dated order, revenue or delivery evidence.",
"price": 152.05,
"pct": -3.4,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.4,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.4,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.14,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$152.05 · -3.40% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-25T21:29:42Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-09-25T15:03:34.910315Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Sep 25, 2026 · 11:03 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked return fell 1.87 percentage points to -1.14% as shares slid 1.98% to $155.42, 2.17% below VWAP near the range low on 0.05 times average dollar volume. The 20-session lead over Industrials remains 7.34 points and price is still above the $153.21 event VWAP, but the backlog thesis still lacks dated conversion evidence and this weak tape offers no confirmation.",
"price": 155.415,
"pct": -1.14,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.26,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.26,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.99,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$155.41 · -1.26% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-25T14:06:22.073520Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-09-24T21:32:58.131362Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Sep 24, 2026 · 17:32 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked gain improved 0.50 percentage points to 0.73% as shares rose 1.67% to $158.55, 1.45% above VWAP, on only 0.45 times average volume; the later post-market capture was nearly unchanged. Its 20-session return still leads Industrials by 12.91 points, but no price structure is confirmed, and the demand case still needs dated evidence that backlog and programs convert into orders, revenue or deliveries.",
"price": 158.55,
"pct": 0.73,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 0.73,
"return_vs_base_pct": 0.73,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.28,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$158.55 · +0.73% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-24T21:18:58Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:19:03.266336Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Sep 24, 2026 · 16:19 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked result recovered 1.82 points to a 0.23% gain; shares were up 1.39% and 1.17% above VWAP, but trading ran at only 0.34 times average and no price pattern is confirmed. Relative strength remains positive, while the demand thesis still needs dated evidence that backlog and programs convert into orders, revenue or deliveries.",
"price": 158.11,
"pct": 0.23,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 0.45,
"return_vs_base_pct": 0.45,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.44,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$158.11 · +0.45% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-24T19:21:16.869314Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-09-24T14:21:12.715677Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Sep 24, 2026 · 10:21 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked loss widened 0.66 points to 1.59%, while the latest quote was nearly flat and 1.24% above the session's volume-weighted average on 42% of usual trading pace. The 11.04-point 20-session lead over Industrials offers support, but no price pattern is confirmed; the demand thesis still needs evidence of backlog and program conversion.",
"price": 155.84,
"pct": -1.59,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.99,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.99,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.06,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$155.84 · -0.99% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-24T14:06:20.904650Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-09-23T22:10:18.911576Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Sep 23, 2026 · 18:10 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked result slipped 0.79 points to a 0.93% loss as the regular close finished below VWAP near the bottom of the range on dollar volume at 0.54 times its twenty-day average. Its twenty-session lead over Industrials remains, but the earlier price repair has reversed without dated issuer evidence of backlog conversion; the model leans lower on limited coverage and a wide range, leaving the thesis under pressure but unresolved.",
"price": 155.94,
"pct": -0.93,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.93,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.93,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.15,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$155.94 · -0.93% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-41662ca460f86db1b0355946bda00dbb1617ce8672882a43dec991eb55592f06",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-23T21:09:09Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:30:35.441296Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Sep 23, 2026 · 16:30 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked gain slipped 2.28 points to a 0.14% loss from the prior public note, despite a 1.02% bounce today. Shares remained 1.10% below VWAP in the lower third of the range, with dollar volume at 0.39 times its 20-day average; the broader sector-relative gain persists, but price confirmation and dated program-conversion evidence are still missing.",
"price": 157.75,
"pct": -0.14,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 0.22,
"return_vs_base_pct": 0.22,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.92,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$157.75 · +0.22% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-23T19:35:00.588557Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-09-23T14:36:55.204602Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Sep 23, 2026 · 10:36 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked result improved 2.93 points into a 2.14% gain after a 3.97% rise that held 1.42% above VWAP near the top of the range. The 20-session Industrials lead is real, but participation was only 0.13x average, structure remains unconfirmed and the model's slightly negative median does not supply program-conversion evidence; the backlog-and-execution thesis has repaired its immediate tape without becoming durable.",
"price": 162.35,
"pct": 2.14,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 3.14,
"return_vs_base_pct": 3.14,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.93,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$162.35 · +3.14% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-4087718dbb55eb7375b066a5411736cdfc712c0de30a1dd8c2c368ce8568376c",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-23T14:07:21.397247Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-22T21:37:05.960128Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Sep 22, 2026 · 17:37 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked result is now a 0.79% loss, 0.94 points below the previous note, after a 2.95% decline even as price held just above VWAP. The backlog-and-execution question retains an Industrials-relative lead, but fading participation, weak market-relative performance and no confirmed structure leave validation open.",
"price": 156.15,
"pct": -0.79,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.79,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.79,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.14,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$156.15 · -0.79% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $157.43 (+0.82% vs regular close) · Sep 22, 2026 · 17:25 NASDAQ"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 157.43,
"ext_pct": 0.82,
"as_of": "2026-09-22T21:25:13Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-22T21:25:13Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-22T20:31:35.159004Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Sep 22, 2026 · 16:31 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked result was nearly flat at +0.15% after a 1.84% decline; price stayed 0.15% above VWAP on 0.53x average volume. The backlog-and-execution question retains an Industrials-relative lead, but fading participation, weak market-relative performance and no confirmed structure leave validation open.",
"price": 157.945,
"pct": 0.15,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 0.35,
"return_vs_base_pct": 0.35,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.7,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$157.94 · +0.35% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-22T19:21:53.147856Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-22T14:43:38.695338Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Sep 22, 2026 · 10:43 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked gain narrowed 3.23 points into a -1.01% loss as price fell 2.52% to 156.85 and finished 1.58% below VWAP at the bottom of its range on 0.12x volume. The twenty-session sector edge remains, but no structure confirms it, and the model's bearish median with a wide tail qualifies the backlog-and-execution thesis rather than rescuing it.",
"price": 156.85,
"pct": -1.01,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.35,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.35,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.57,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$156.85 · -0.35% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-ec47472f1cba72f2d19363476ee10114275a9001ef2dc3006cd700dd9173a26c",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-22T14:06:32.230182Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-21T22:18:56.621594Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Sep 21, 2026 · 18:18 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV tracked gain narrowed 0.82 points to 2.22% even as price edged up 0.59% to 160.90; it finished 0.70% below VWAP in the lower half of the range on 0.53 times average volume. The backlog-and-execution thesis keeps a 6.12-point Industrials-relative lead, but fading participation and the weak location leave conversion unproven.",
"price": 160.9,
"pct": 2.22,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.22,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.22,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.7,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$160.90 · +2.22% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-21T21:23:53Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:02:27.967953Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Sep 21, 2026 · 16:02 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked gain narrowed 1.43 points to 3.04% even as price rose 1.28% to 162.00; it finished 0.70% below VWAP near the lower half of the range on 0.36 times average dollar volume. The backlog-and-execution thesis keeps a 6.58-point Industrials-relative edge, but today's weaker market relationship and light participation leave conversion unproven.",
"price": 162.0,
"pct": 3.04,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.92,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.92,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.16,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$162.00 · +2.92% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-21T19:23:03.095376Z",
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},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-21T15:04:11.233598Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Sep 21, 2026 · 11:04 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked gain improved 2.85 points to 4.47% as price rose 1.44% to 162.25 on 0.12 times average volume, but no structure is confirmed. The backlog-and-execution thesis still has a 5.67-point Industrials-relative edge; the current strength helps the case, while light participation leaves program conversion unproven.",
"price": 162.25,
"pct": 4.47,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 3.08,
"return_vs_base_pct": 3.08,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.46,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$162.25 · +3.08% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-21T14:09:41.346729Z",
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-09-18T22:28:39.920348Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Sep 18, 2026 · 18:28 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked gain narrowed 0.77 points to +1.62% as price fell 2.10% to 159.95, below 161.95 VWAP near the lower range on 1.24x average volume. The backlog-and-execution thesis retains a 5.67-point Industrials-relative edge, but lighter participation and no confirmed structure leave conversion unproven.",
"price": 159.95,
"pct": 1.62,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 1.62,
"return_vs_base_pct": 1.62,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.78,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$159.95 · +1.62% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-18T21:31:02Z",
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-09-18T20:14:53.454621Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Sep 18, 2026 · 16:14 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked gain is 2.39% after the latest capture fell 1.35% to 161.18 on 0.42x average volume. The backlog-and-execution thesis retains a sector-relative edge, but current weakness, light participation and no confirmed structure leave program conversion unproven.",
"price": 161.18,
"pct": 2.39,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.4,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.4,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.3,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$161.18 · +2.40% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-18T19:21:09.426587Z",
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},
{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-09-18T14:41:48.860527Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Sep 18, 2026 · 10:41 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked gain narrowed 1.17 points to +2.63% as price fell 1.64% to $160.70, 1.88% below VWAP near the range low on 0.15x average volume. The backlog-and-execution thesis retains a 6.53-point sector-relative edge, but current weakness and no confirmed structure still leave program conversion unproven.",
"price": 160.7,
"pct": 2.63,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.1,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.1,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.7,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$160.70 · +2.10% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-18T14:06:06.717745Z",
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},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-09-17T22:21:41.084789Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Sep 17, 2026 · 18:21 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked gain narrowed 0.76 points to +3.80% despite a 4.43% latest-session rise to USD 163.38. Price is 0.13% below VWAP on 0.90x average volume, with no confirmed structure; the 20-session return remains -5.42% despite a 1.69-point edge over Industrials. The backlog-and-execution case has not yet shown program conversion.",
"price": 163.38,
"pct": 3.8,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 3.8,
"return_vs_base_pct": 3.8,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.74,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$163.38 · +3.80% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-17T20:29:12Z",
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},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-09-17T14:40:17.603526Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Sep 17, 2026 · 10:40 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked return improved 7.44 points to +4.56% as the latest capture rose 5.18% to $164.55, just 0.13% below VWAP. The backlog-and-execution case has repaired the immediate price test, but volume is 0.31x average, no structure is confirmed and the twenty-session record remains negative; price strength has not yet shown program conversion.",
"price": 164.55,
"pct": 4.56,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 4.54,
"return_vs_base_pct": 4.54,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 8.42,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$164.55 · +4.54% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-6fde19b5fd8813686254b8181ccc21099363eeafd484de4ec8bb5f82d0fdebe3",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-17T14:10:17.742927Z",
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{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-09-16T20:27:46.227383Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Sep 16, 2026 · 16:27 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked loss widened 1.61 points to -2.88% after a 3.62% fall to .30. Price finished 2.36% below VWAP on 0.56x average volume near the bottom of its range, with no confirmed structure; the backlog-and-execution thesis is under renewed pressure.",
"price": 151.3,
"pct": -2.88,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.88,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.88,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.16,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$151.30 · -3.88% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-16T19:21:13.018409Z",
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},
{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-09-16T14:49:06.683701Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Sep 16, 2026 · 10:49 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV tracked loss is 1,27% as the latest capture moved 1,47% to USD 154,69, with price above VWAP on 0,14 times time-adjusted participation. The tracked result widened 1,01 points, but The backlog-and-execution thesis has modest repair but remains open.",
"price": 154.69,
"pct": -1.27,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.72,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.72,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.46,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$154.69 · -1.72% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-16T14:06:40.306426Z",
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},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-09-15T21:47:24.997156Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Sep 15, 2026 · 17:47 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV tracked loss narrowed 0.41 points to -0.26% after a 2.34% rise to USD 156.99, and price is above VWAP on 0.71 times time-adjusted volume. That is a modest repair in the immediate tape, but no confirmed structure and unresolved industrial-relative weakness keep the backlog-and-execution thesis open rather than confirmed.",
"price": 156.99,
"pct": -0.26,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.26,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.26,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.0,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$156.99 · -0.26% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $156.51 (-0.31% vs regular close) · Sep 15, 2026 · 17:34 NASDAQ"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 156.51,
"ext_pct": -0.31,
"as_of": "2026-09-15T21:34:14Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-15T21:34:14Z",
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},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-09-15T19:42:31.980567Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Sep 15, 2026 · 15:42 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV has recovered the immediate price test: it is up 1.31% at $155.41, 0.68% above VWAP and ahead of SPY's -0.5% move. But the deeper claim is still exposed: the tracked return is -0.67%, Industrials trails the market over twenty sessions, participation is only around average, and no structure confirms that the backlog story is converting into durable demand.",
"price": 155.41,
"pct": -0.67,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.26,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.26,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.09,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$155.41 · -1.26% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-4aae596687a4c0179b86ecf8e11085b98c4294673a80007166f0fdd1f85b099e",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-15T19:21:00.581079Z",
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},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-09-15T16:22:28.509656Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Sep 15, 2026 · 12:22 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV tracked loss widened 0.75 points to -3.29% as the current capture fell 0.83% to $152.13, although price remained 0.57% above VWAP on 0.45 times average volume. Industrial-relative weakness, distribution and no confirmed structure keep the backlog-and-execution thesis unresolved; the intraday hold is not enough to repair the broader record.",
"price": 152.13,
"pct": -3.29,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.35,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.35,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.81,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$152.13 · -3.35% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-15T15:52:36.865021Z",
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},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-09-14T23:36:49.934757Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Sep 14, 2026 · 19:36 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked loss narrowed to -2.54% as the latest capture rose 4.56% to $153.40, above VWAP and high in its range with stronger session participation. The immediate price test improved, but Industrial relative weakness, distribution and no confirmed structure keep the backlog-and-execution thesis unresolved.",
"price": 153.4,
"pct": -2.54,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.54,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.54,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$153.40 · -2.54% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $153.48 (+0.05% vs regular close) · Sep 14, 2026 · 19:19 NASDAQ"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 153.48,
"ext_pct": 0.05,
"as_of": "2026-09-14T23:19:26Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-14T23:19:26Z",
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},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-09-14T22:40:08.390404Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Sep 14, 2026 · 18:40 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV improved 1.72 points to a tracked loss of -2.54% as the latest capture rose 4.56% to $153.40, 0.65% above VWAP on 1.57x average volume. The immediate price test is stronger, but Industrial relative weakness, decelerating participation and no confirmed structure leave the backlog-and-execution thesis unresolved.",
"price": 153.4,
"pct": -2.54,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.54,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.54,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.55,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$153.40 · -2.54% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-14T20:07:45Z",
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},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-09-14T14:57:15.680636Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Sep 14, 2026 · 10:57 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV tracked loss narrowed 2.53 points to -4.26% as the current capture rose 0.76% to $147.82, 0.15% above VWAP on only 0.26 times average volume. The modest hold improves the immediate price test, but Industrial-relative weakness, distribution and no confirmed structure keep the backlog-and-execution thesis unresolved.",
"price": 147.82,
"pct": -4.26,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -6.09,
"return_vs_base_pct": -6.09,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.7,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$147.82 · -6.09% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-14T14:05:55.081234Z",
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},
{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-09-11T22:10:26.067593Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Sep 11, 2026 · 18:10 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked loss narrowed 1.20 points to -6.79% even as the latest capture eased 0.24% to $146.71; market evidence placed it 2.59% above the $143.01 VWAP reference on 2.51 times average volume. That intraday hold is encouraging but not structural: no structure is confirmed, broader Industrial weakness and distribution persist, and the backlog-and-execution thesis remains unresolved.",
"price": 146.71,
"pct": -6.79,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -6.79,
"return_vs_base_pct": -6.79,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.17,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$146.71 · -6.79% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-11T21:36:17Z",
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},
{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-09-11T19:50:55.829344Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Sep 11, 2026 · 15:50 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked loss widened 0.12 points to -7.99% on its first tracked session as price fell 1.50% to $144.87, despite moving above VWAP in the upper part of its range on 1.70 times average volume. No structure is confirmed; broader industrial weakness and distribution persist, leaving the backlog-and-execution thesis unresolved.",
"price": 144.865,
"pct": -7.99,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -7.96,
"return_vs_base_pct": -7.96,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.18,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$144.87 · -7.96% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-11T19:21:33.380908Z",
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},
{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-09-11T14:46:46.436396Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Sep 11, 2026 · 10:46 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV tracked loss widened 1.30 points to -7.87% on its first tracked session as the stock fell 1.68% to $144.59 and stayed 0.39% below VWAP on 0.41 times average volume. The backlog-and-execution thesis remains unresolved: broader weakness and distribution persist, and the current capture still offers no confirmed structure or issuer evidence that converts the operating story into delivery.",
"price": 144.59,
"pct": -7.87,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -8.14,
"return_vs_base_pct": -8.14,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.57,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$144.59 · -8.14% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-09-11T14:06:25.411176Z",
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},
{
"day": 0,
"timestamp": "2026-09-10T21:48:38.560522Z",
"date": "Session 0 · Sep 10, 2026 · 17:48 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV's tracked loss widened 1.05 points to -6.57% on its first tracked session. The stock rose 4.45% to USD 147.07 on 5.13 times average volume, but remained 2.34% below VWAP with no confirmed structure; severe twenty-session underperformance and a weak Industrials backdrop keep the backlog-and-execution thesis unresolved.",
"price": 147.065,
"pct": -6.57,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -6.57,
"return_vs_base_pct": -6.57,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.53,
"session_day": 0,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$147.06 · -6.57% from $157.40 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": {
"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $148.10 (+0.70% vs regular close) · Sep 10, 2026 · 17:25 NASDAQ"
},
"extended_hours": {
"phase": "post",
"price": 148.1,
"ext_pct": 0.7,
"as_of": "2026-09-10T21:25:45Z",
"persisted": false
},
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:25:45Z",
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},
{
"day": 0,
"timestamp": "2026-09-10T19:46:47.305188Z",
"date": "Session 0 · Sep 10, 2026 · 15:46 NASDAQ",
"text": "AVAV first tracked session is down 5.52% from the initial reference despite a 6.16% latest-session rise to USD 149.47. The move carried 4.54 times average volume, but price remained 2.34% below VWAP in the middle of the range, with no confirmed structure; over twenty sessions AVAV is down 22.77% versus an 8.49% decline for Industrials. The operating and backlog thesis remains a question, while the market has not yet confirmed the proposed path.",
"price": 149.47,
"pct": -5.52,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.04,
"return_vs_base_pct": -5.04,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -5.04,
"session_day": 0,
"reference_price": 157.4,
"reference_text": "$149.47 · -5.04% from $157.40 base",
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"market_marker": null,
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"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-4745b6b63f9fc69c304f96f15a12ba083e97e90165b83296ef7941a907e22878",
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],
"observed_outcomes": [
{
"label": "+1 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": -6.79,
"reference_text": "-6.79% from $157.40 base",
"price": 146.71,
"updated": "Sep 11, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQ",
"mfe": -6.52,
"mae": -12.13
},
{
"label": "+5 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": 3.8,
"reference_text": "+3.80% from $157.40 base",
"price": 163.38,
"updated": "Sep 17, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQ",
"mfe": 6.58,
"mae": -12.13
},
{
"label": "+10 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": 0.73,
"reference_text": "+0.73% from $157.40 base",
"price": 158.55,
"updated": "Sep 25, 2026 · 10:19 NASDAQ",
"mfe": 6.73,
"mae": -12.13
},
{
"label": "+15 sessions",
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{
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{
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:19.059394Z",
"facts": [
"The trajectory stayed near +9.08% to +10.03%.",
"The prepared SEC context shows latest-quarter revenue down 44.07% year over year and operating cash flow of -$14.928 million.",
"The 20-session return was -24.36% versus XLK at -1.56%; intraday evidence was unavailable."
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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},
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{
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{
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{
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"rsi": 77.23,
"vwap": 3.88,
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"extended_hours_pct": null,
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"ema_trend": "3.49 > 3.45 > 3.41",
"vwap_state": "below",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:15:30.251217Z",
"facts": [
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"The trajectory moved from about +10.34% to +7.45%, with price below the 3.88 VWAP reference.",
"The active H15 positive-return probability was 44.8%, with a model-adverse H15 P10 of -27.18%."
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:19.059394Z",
"facts": [
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"The prepared SEC context shows latest-quarter revenue down 44.07% year over year and operating cash flow of -$14.928 million.",
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{
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"timestamp": "2026-09-18T20:14:53.454621Z",
"comparison": {
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{
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"role": "selected",
"price": 161.18,
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"vwap_state": "below",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
"facts": [
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"vwap_as_of": null
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:15:30.251217Z",
"facts": [
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"The trajectory moved from about +10.34% to +7.45%, with price below the 3.88 VWAP reference.",
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"vwap_as_of": null
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{
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"role": "alternative",
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"vwap_as_of": null
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{
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{
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"source": "sealed_extended_quote",
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"ema_trend": "155.06 > 154.94 > 159.21",
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
"facts": [
"Latest ordered prices are approximately 154.50-154.55 against the 153.21 VWAP reference.",
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},
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"vwap_as_of": null
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{
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:53Z",
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"Price was 0.15% above the 29.82 VWAP reference and volume was 0.39x average.",
"The 20-session return was -16.18% versus XLI at -8.29%.",
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],
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"vwap_as_of": null
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{
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{
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:15:30.251217Z",
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"The trajectory moved from about +10.34% to +7.45%, with price below the 3.88 VWAP reference.",
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:19.059394Z",
"facts": [
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],
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},
{
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{
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}
},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-21T15:04:11.233598Z",
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"rows": [
{
"symbol": "AVAV",
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"price": 162.25,
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"as_of": "2026-09-21T14:09:41.346729Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"ema_trend": "156.5 > 155.61 > 159.33",
"vwap_state": "above",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
"facts": [
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{
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:53Z",
"facts": [
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"The 20-session return was -16.18% versus XLI at -8.29%.",
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],
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T20:00:10Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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"vwap": 3.88,
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"as_of": "2026-09-10T21:19:39Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"ema_trend": "3.49 > 3.45 > 3.41",
"vwap_state": "below",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:15:30.251217Z",
"facts": [
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],
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"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
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"role": "alternative",
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"vwap_distance_pct": null,
"position_52w_pct": 41.94,
"extended_hours_pct": null,
"as_of": "2026-09-10T21:20:04Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "TSS, Inc.",
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"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:19.059394Z",
"facts": [
"The trajectory stayed near +9.08% to +10.03%.",
"The prepared SEC context shows latest-quarter revenue down 44.07% year over year and operating cash flow of -$14.928 million.",
"The 20-session return was -24.36% versus XLK at -1.56%; intraday evidence was unavailable."
],
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:20:04Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
}
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}
}
},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:02:27.967953Z",
"comparison": {
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"source": "sealed_update_market_context + canonical_candidate_snapshot + market_trajectory + public_market_snapshot",
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{
"symbol": "AVAV",
"role": "selected",
"price": 162.0,
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "AeroVironment, Inc.",
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"ema_trend": "156.45 > 155.58 > 159.32",
"vwap_state": "below",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
"facts": [
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"The latest prices therefore imply an approximate 0.8-0.9% cushion; the captures are not synchronous.",
"The sealed packet records about 3.0x volume, a five-point reaction from about +10.26% to +9.73%, and a 20-session return of -20.32%.",
"The latest-quarter context includes revenue of $641.616 million, net income of $63.174 million and operating cash flow of $95.513 million."
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "MDA Space Ltd.",
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"ema_trend": "29.52 > 30.42 > 32.22",
"vwap_state": "above",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:53Z",
"facts": [
"Five provider observations moved from about +4.41% to +3.66%.",
"Price was 0.15% above the 29.82 VWAP reference and volume was 0.39x average.",
"The 20-session return was -16.18% versus XLI at -8.29%.",
"The sealed packet contains no public-safe issuer evidence establishing bookings, revenue or guidance conversion for the product claim."
],
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T20:00:10Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"ema_trend": "2.61 > 2.52 > 2.61",
"vwap_state": "above",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:01.048603Z",
"facts": [
"The chart review observed higher daily lows, a six-month recovery and volume-backed lift.",
"The latest jump was abrupt and the weekly frame remained in a longer downtrend."
],
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:16:34Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
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"role": "alternative",
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"rsi": 77.23,
"vwap": 3.88,
"vwap_distance_pct": -1.067,
"position_52w_pct": 80.0,
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"as_of": "2026-09-10T21:19:39Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "Culp, Inc.",
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"ema_trend": "3.49 > 3.45 > 3.41",
"vwap_state": "below",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:15:30.251217Z",
"facts": [
"Volume was 26.3x the three-month average and RSI was 77.23.",
"The trajectory moved from about +10.34% to +7.45%, with price below the 3.88 VWAP reference.",
"The active H15 positive-return probability was 44.8%, with a model-adverse H15 P10 of -27.18%."
],
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:19:39Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"symbol": "TSSI",
"role": "alternative",
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"vwap_distance_pct": null,
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"extended_hours_pct": null,
"as_of": "2026-09-10T21:20:04Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "TSS, Inc.",
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"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:19.059394Z",
"facts": [
"The trajectory stayed near +9.08% to +10.03%.",
"The prepared SEC context shows latest-quarter revenue down 44.07% year over year and operating cash flow of -$14.928 million.",
"The 20-session return was -24.36% versus XLK at -1.56%; intraday evidence was unavailable."
],
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:20:04Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
}
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"benchmark_rows": 0
}
}
},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-09-21T22:18:56.621594Z",
"comparison": {
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"captured_at": "2026-09-21T22:18:56.621594Z",
"base_definition": "Candidates use the publication reference; benchmarks use the previous regular close.",
"source": "sealed_update_market_context + canonical_candidate_snapshot + market_trajectory + public_market_snapshot",
"rows": [
{
"symbol": "AVAV",
"role": "selected",
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"source": "sealed_extended_quote",
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"ema_trend": "156.23 > 155.48 > 159.28",
"vwap_state": "below",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
"facts": [
"Latest ordered prices are approximately 154.50-154.55 against the 153.21 VWAP reference.",
"The latest prices therefore imply an approximate 0.8-0.9% cushion; the captures are not synchronous.",
"The sealed packet records about 3.0x volume, a five-point reaction from about +10.26% to +9.73%, and a 20-session return of -20.32%.",
"The latest-quarter context includes revenue of $641.616 million, net income of $63.174 million and operating cash flow of $95.513 million."
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{
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"as_of": "2026-09-10T20:00:10Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"ema_trend": "29.52 > 30.42 > 32.22",
"vwap_state": "above",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:53Z",
"facts": [
"Five provider observations moved from about +4.41% to +3.66%.",
"Price was 0.15% above the 29.82 VWAP reference and volume was 0.39x average.",
"The 20-session return was -16.18% versus XLI at -8.29%.",
"The sealed packet contains no public-safe issuer evidence establishing bookings, revenue or guidance conversion for the product claim."
],
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T20:00:10Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"symbol": "CMRC",
"role": "alternative",
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},
{
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"vwap": 3.88,
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"as_of": "2026-09-10T21:19:39Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"ema_trend": "3.49 > 3.45 > 3.41",
"vwap_state": "below",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:15:30.251217Z",
"facts": [
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"The trajectory moved from about +10.34% to +7.45%, with price below the 3.88 VWAP reference.",
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],
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"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"symbol": "TSSI",
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"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
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"facts": [
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],
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"vwap_as_of": null
}
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}
}
},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-22T14:43:38.695338Z",
"comparison": {
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"rows": [
{
"symbol": "AVAV",
"role": "selected",
"price": 156.85,
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"as_of": "2026-09-22T14:06:32.230182Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "AeroVironment, Inc.",
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"ema_trend": "156.35 > 155.61 > 159.18",
"vwap_state": "below",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
"facts": [
"Latest ordered prices are approximately 154.50-154.55 against the 153.21 VWAP reference.",
"The latest prices therefore imply an approximate 0.8-0.9% cushion; the captures are not synchronous.",
"The sealed packet records about 3.0x volume, a five-point reaction from about +10.26% to +9.73%, and a 20-session return of -20.32%.",
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},
{
"symbol": "MDA",
"role": "alternative",
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"as_of": "2026-09-10T20:00:10Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "MDA Space Ltd.",
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"ema_trend": "29.52 > 30.42 > 32.22",
"vwap_state": "above",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:53Z",
"facts": [
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"Price was 0.15% above the 29.82 VWAP reference and volume was 0.39x average.",
"The 20-session return was -16.18% versus XLI at -8.29%.",
"The sealed packet contains no public-safe issuer evidence establishing bookings, revenue or guidance conversion for the product claim."
],
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T20:00:10Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"symbol": "CMRC",
"role": "alternative",
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"rsi": 80.78,
"vwap": 3.11,
"vwap_distance_pct": -1.2797,
"position_52w_pct": 56.18,
"extended_hours_pct": null,
"as_of": "2026-09-10T21:16:34Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"ema_trend": "2.61 > 2.52 > 2.61",
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:01.048603Z",
"facts": [
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],
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:16:34Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"symbol": "CULP",
"role": "alternative",
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"volume_ratio": 26.3,
"rsi": 77.23,
"vwap": 3.88,
"vwap_distance_pct": -1.067,
"position_52w_pct": 80.0,
"extended_hours_pct": null,
"as_of": "2026-09-10T21:19:39Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "Culp, Inc.",
"episode_id": "n0:CULP:2026-09-10",
"ema_trend": "3.49 > 3.45 > 3.41",
"vwap_state": "below",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:15:30.251217Z",
"facts": [
"Volume was 26.3x the three-month average and RSI was 77.23.",
"The trajectory moved from about +10.34% to +7.45%, with price below the 3.88 VWAP reference.",
"The active H15 positive-return probability was 44.8%, with a model-adverse H15 P10 of -27.18%."
],
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:19:39Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"symbol": "TSSI",
"role": "alternative",
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"change_since_prior_pct": 0.0,
"volume_ratio": 2.23,
"rsi": 55.28,
"vwap": null,
"vwap_distance_pct": null,
"position_52w_pct": 41.94,
"extended_hours_pct": null,
"as_of": "2026-09-10T21:20:04Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "TSS, Inc.",
"episode_id": "n0:TSSI:2026-09-10",
"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:19.059394Z",
"facts": [
"The trajectory stayed near +9.08% to +10.03%.",
"The prepared SEC context shows latest-quarter revenue down 44.07% year over year and operating cash flow of -$14.928 million.",
"The 20-session return was -24.36% versus XLK at -1.56%; intraday evidence was unavailable."
],
"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:20:04Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
}
],
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}
}
},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-09-22T20:31:35.159004Z",
"comparison": {
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"rows": [
{
"symbol": "AVAV",
"role": "selected",
"price": 157.945,
"base_price": 157.4,
"return_since_base_pct": 0.3463,
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"rsi": 63.94,
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"vwap_distance_pct": 0.149,
"position_52w_pct": 37.8,
"extended_hours_pct": null,
"as_of": "2026-09-22T19:21:53.147856Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "AeroVironment, Inc.",
"episode_id": "n0:AVAV:2026-09-10",
"ema_trend": "156.57 > 155.71 > 159.23",
"vwap_state": "above",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
"facts": [
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"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
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"facts": [
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{
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"timestamp": "2026-09-22T21:37:05.960128Z",
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{
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
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{
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
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{
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:19.059394Z",
"facts": [
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"The prepared SEC context shows latest-quarter revenue down 44.07% year over year and operating cash flow of -$14.928 million.",
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{
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{
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"role": "selected",
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
"facts": [
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:53Z",
"facts": [
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"The 20-session return was -16.18% versus XLI at -8.29%.",
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{
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{
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"facts": [
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{
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{
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
"facts": [
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],
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{
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}
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}
},
{
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{
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"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
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{
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{
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"facts": [
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{
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{
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}
},
{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:45:32.446726Z",
"comparison": {
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"source": "sealed_update_market_context + canonical_candidate_snapshot + market_trajectory + public_market_snapshot",
"rows": [
{
"symbol": "AVAV",
"role": "selected",
"price": 143.775,
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "AeroVironment, Inc.",
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"ema_trend": "151.97 > 153.75 > 157.72",
"vwap_state": "below",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
"facts": [
"Latest ordered prices are approximately 154.50-154.55 against the 153.21 VWAP reference.",
"The latest prices therefore imply an approximate 0.8-0.9% cushion; the captures are not synchronous.",
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"ema_trend": "29.52 > 30.42 > 32.22",
"vwap_state": "above",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:53Z",
"facts": [
"Five provider observations moved from about +4.41% to +3.66%.",
"Price was 0.15% above the 29.82 VWAP reference and volume was 0.39x average.",
"The 20-session return was -16.18% versus XLI at -8.29%.",
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],
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"vwap_as_of": null
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{
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"ema_trend": "2.61 > 2.52 > 2.61",
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:01.048603Z",
"facts": [
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"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"vwap_state": "below",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:15:30.251217Z",
"facts": [
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"The trajectory moved from about +10.34% to +7.45%, with price below the 3.88 VWAP reference.",
"The active H15 positive-return probability was 44.8%, with a model-adverse H15 P10 of -27.18%."
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"vwap_as_of": null
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"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:19.059394Z",
"facts": [
"The trajectory stayed near +9.08% to +10.03%.",
"The prepared SEC context shows latest-quarter revenue down 44.07% year over year and operating cash flow of -$14.928 million.",
"The 20-session return was -24.36% versus XLK at -1.56%; intraday evidence was unavailable."
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-10T21:20:04Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
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{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:53:01.128312Z",
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{
"symbol": "AVAV",
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:55Z",
"facts": [
"Latest ordered prices are approximately 154.50-154.55 against the 153.21 VWAP reference.",
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"ema_trend": "29.52 > 30.42 > 32.22",
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T17:19:53Z",
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"The 20-session return was -16.18% versus XLI at -8.29%.",
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],
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},
{
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{
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"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:19.059394Z",
"facts": [
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{
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{
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{
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"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:15:30.251217Z",
"facts": [
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"The trajectory moved from about +10.34% to +7.45%, with price below the 3.88 VWAP reference.",
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"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
"selection_as_of": "2026-09-10T15:16:19.059394Z",
"facts": [
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"The prepared SEC context shows latest-quarter revenue down 44.07% year over year and operating cash flow of -$14.928 million.",
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{
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"candidate_prices": 5,
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},
{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-09-30T21:56:10.771238Z",
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{
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{
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{
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"as_of": "2026-09-10T21:20:04Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
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"return_since_base_pct": 0.5027,
"session_return_pct": 0.5027,
"as_of": "2026-10-05T22:30:02.530881Z",
"source": "yfinance.ticker_info",
"base_definition": "previous regular close"
}
],
"coverage": {
"candidate_rows": 5,
"candidate_prices": 5,
"candidate_technical": 5,
"benchmark_rows": 3
}
}
}
],
"candidates": [
{
"symbol": "MDA",
"name": "MDA Space Ltd.",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"tradingview_url": "https://es.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYSE%3AMDA&interval=60",
"score": null,
"price": 29.865,
"change": null,
"volume": 618718.0,
"avg_volume_3m": 1595554.0,
"volume_ratio": 0.39,
"rsi": 42.84,
"ema_trend": "29.52 > 30.42 > 32.22",
"position_52w_pct": 60.52,
"vwap": 29.82,
"vwap_distance_pct": null,
"vwap_state": "above",
"facts": [
"Five provider observations moved from about +4.41% to +3.66%.",
"Price was 0.15% above the 29.82 VWAP reference and volume was 0.39x average.",
"The 20-session return was -16.18% versus XLI at -8.29%.",
"The sealed packet contains no public-safe issuer evidence establishing bookings, revenue or guidance conversion for the product claim."
],
"role": "alternative",
"selected": false,
"reason": "The public row relies only on sealed observed market evidence. The earlier narrative citation was not cleared for public use, so no unsafe source is cited and the product claim is treated as unconfirmed economic impact."
},
{
"symbol": "CMRC",
"name": "Commerce.com, Inc.",
"exchange": "NasdaqGM",
"tradingview_url": "https://es.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NASDAQ%3ACMRC&interval=60",
"score": 3,
"price": 3.1109,
"change": 19.58,
"volume": 2824317,
"avg_volume_3m": 947061,
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"rsi": 80.78,
"ema_trend": "2.61 > 2.52 > 2.61",
"position_52w_pct": 56.18,
"vwap": 3.11,
"vwap_distance_pct": null,
"vwap_state": "above",
"facts": [
"The chart review observed higher daily lows, a six-month recovery and volume-backed lift.",
"The latest jump was abrupt and the weekly frame remained in a longer downtrend."
],
"role": "alternative",
"selected": false,
"reason": "The tape shows a recovery sequence but not enough verified mechanism or durable confirmation to outrank AVAV."
},
{
"symbol": "CULP",
"name": "Culp, Inc.",
"exchange": "NasdaqCM",
"tradingview_url": "https://es.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NASDAQ%3ACULP&interval=60",
"score": 7,
"price": 3.8401,
"change": 10.03,
"volume": 1103241,
"avg_volume_3m": 41956,
"volume_ratio": 26.3,
"rsi": 77.23,
"ema_trend": "3.49 > 3.45 > 3.41",
"position_52w_pct": 80.0,
"vwap": 3.88,
"vwap_distance_pct": null,
"vwap_state": "below",
"facts": [
"Volume was 26.3x the three-month average and RSI was 77.23.",
"The trajectory moved from about +10.34% to +7.45%, with price below the 3.88 VWAP reference.",
"The active H15 positive-return probability was 44.8%, with a model-adverse H15 P10 of -27.18%."
],
"role": "alternative",
"selected": false,
"reason": "The earnings event is auditable, but the move faded below VWAP in a thin issuer with elevated extension risk."
},
{
"symbol": "TSSI",
"name": "TSS, Inc.",
"exchange": "NasdaqCM",
"tradingview_url": "https://es.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NASDAQ%3ATSSI&interval=60",
"score": 6,
"price": 9.12,
"change": 9.48,
"volume": 1908151,
"avg_volume_3m": 857212,
"volume_ratio": 2.23,
"rsi": 55.28,
"ema_trend": "8.52 > 8.89 > 9.78",
"position_52w_pct": 41.94,
"vwap": null,
"vwap_distance_pct": null,
"vwap_state": null,
"facts": [
"The trajectory stayed near +9.08% to +10.03%.",
"The prepared SEC context shows latest-quarter revenue down 44.07% year over year and operating cash flow of -$14.928 million.",
"The 20-session return was -24.36% versus XLK at -1.56%; intraday evidence was unavailable."
],
"role": "alternative",
"selected": false,
"reason": "The systems-integration thesis is specific, but the supplied operating periods are not reconciled sufficiently for selection."
}
],
"news": [
{
"title": "SEC 8-K filing",
"url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1368622/000110465926106304/avav-20260909x8k.htm"
},
{
"title": "AVAV Q1 Earnings Call Centers on LOCUST Scale-Up & Second-Half Ramp-Up",
"url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d18a6e59dbd24fc2209643171b10c71ac18fed6abe7aeca7592bb4d51918ed41"
},
{
"title": "Jim Cramer Said Stay Away From This Drone Stock a Week Before Its Biggest Earnings Beat in Years",
"url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=8a55069c3ab8350c22d1b54d242f52d932616c2503fd62dfb8cfd5035df72ac3"
},
{
"title": "AeroVironment Rises 5% on First International LOCUST Laser Order, Unusual Machines Holds Steady, Ondas Slips",
"url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d730641f36cf1aa69ce770a21148f2fa3d3cf404ec2d06886cf621e5b0562b71"
}
],
"transcript_url": null,
"initial_transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-56120953646f4e661dba78e444f31bb5c80c804b0f47a0b97ee354944e270b09",
"chart_url": null,
"secondary_chart_url": null,
"forecast_chart_url": null,
"methodology_url": "https://trydingday.com/methodology/",
"track_record_url": "https://trydingday.com/track-record/",
"market_timezone": "America/New_York"
}
}