AKAM episode 20260925_AKAM_MIDDAY

Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.

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  "episode_id": "20260925_AKAM_MIDDAY",
  "episode_url": "https://trydingday.com/data/agents/v1/episodes/20260925_AKAM_MIDDAY.html",
  "public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/coverage/akam/2026-09-25/midday/",
  "published_at": "2026-09-25T19:12:41.662296Z",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-16T22:18:29.191504Z",
  "lifecycle": {
    "tracking_status": "closed",
    "active_for_tracking": false,
    "stage": "closed"
  },
  "instrument": {
    "type": "equity",
    "symbol": "AKAM",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "name": "Akamai Technologies, Inc."
  },
  "technical_reference": {
    "status": "ok",
    "reference_price": 116.74,
    "model_downside_reference": 106.27,
    "model_upside_scenario_1": 127.21,
    "model_upside_scenario_2": 137.68,
    "atr_14": 6.98,
    "method": "reference_price_plus_minus_atr14"
  },
  "public_content": {
    "date": "September 25, 2026",
    "generated_at": "2026-09-25T19:12:41.662296Z",
    "original_published_at": null,
    "session_tag": "midday",
    "label": "Market coverage",
    "try_label": "Try of the Day",
    "public_status": "Try of the Day",
    "why_today": "The Desk retains Akamai as its conditional Try of the Day. Secondary reporting describes an $11.6 billion, seven-year Anthropic infrastructure agreement; the supplied SEC filing summary does not confirm those terms, and the possible expansion is optional. Akamai's sampled price was below VWAP despite high volume. The thesis depends on primary confirmation and a credible delivery path.",
    "entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: Akamai's reported seven-year Anthropic infrastructure agreement offers the strongest candidate-specific path for the next 15 sessions because it links a material customer commitment to an established, cash-generative business. The thesis depends on the reported commitment being binding and progressing toward delivery; the captured intraday fade is a meaningful near-term counter-signal. Invalidation boundary: A primary issuer disclosure materially qualifies or removes the reported $11.6 billion commitment, or subsequent updates provide no credible delivery and revenue path. A sustained failure to recover the captured VWAP would weaken near-term continuation but would not alone falsify the business mechanism.",
    "reference_price": 116.74,
    "scanner": {
      "price": 116.74,
      "reference": 116.74,
      "score": 6,
      "score_version": "v0_legacy_reconstructed",
      "change": 5.73,
      "volume": 24932237,
      "average_volume": 3573088,
      "volume_ratio": 6.98,
      "rsi": 62.59,
      "ema_trend": "112.64 > 111.12 > 112.23",
      "position_52w": 71.98,
      "atr_14": 6.98,
      "vwap": 119.65,
      "vwap_state": "below",
      "vwap_distance_pct": -2.43,
      "vwap_reading": {
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        "state": "below",
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      "range_position": 0.105,
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      "relative_strength": {
        "excess_pct": 5.24,
        "index": "QQQ",
        "index_chg_pct": 0.49,
        "status": "normal"
      },
      "volume_percentile": {
        "median_vol": 3265300,
        "percentile": 100.0,
        "status": "exceptional",
        "today_vol": 24932237
      },
      "extension": {
        "atr": 6.98,
        "dist_atr": 0.81,
        "ema_ref": 111.12,
        "status": "healthy"
      },
      "atr_move_signal": {
        "atr_pct": 5.98,
        "status": "noise",
        "z": 0.96
      },
      "sector_breadth": {
        "chg_pct": 0.98,
        "etf": "XLK",
        "status": "green"
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      "sentiment": null,
      "sentiment_score": null,
      "earnings_warning": {
        "days_away": null,
        "earnings_date": null,
        "has_earnings_soon": false,
        "status": "clear"
      },
      "options_snapshot": null,
      "extended_hours": {
        "ext_pct": null,
        "market_state": "REGULAR",
        "phase": "regular",
        "post_market_pct": null,
        "pre_market_pct": null,
        "status": "none"
      },
      "coiled_spring": {
        "component_count": 0,
        "components": {},
        "count": 0,
        "detector_version": "coiled-compression-ohlc.v1",
        "reason": "coiled_ohlc_detector_runs_on_research_and_known_ticker_rails",
        "schema_version": "coiled-features.v2",
        "status": "not_evaluated"
      },
      "short_pct_float": 15.37,
      "days_to_cover": 6.13,
      "catalyst": "Stock Market Today: Nasdaq Wavers Amid Peace Hopes; Nvidia Holds Key Level Amid Musk News (Live Coverage)",
      "sector": "Technology",
      "exchange": "NASDAQ",
      "sec_signal": "INSIDER_SELL (S/M/F)"
    },
    "levels": {
      "reference": 116.74,
      "downside": 106.27,
      "upside_1": 127.21,
      "upside_2": 137.68
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    "review": {
      "score": 6,
      "status": "Try Of Day",
      "summary": "The Desk retains Akamai as its conditional Try of the Day. Secondary reporting describes an $11.6 billion, seven-year Anthropic infrastructure agreement; the supplied SEC filing summary does not confirm those terms, and the possible expansion is optional. Akamai's sampled price was below VWAP despite high volume. The thesis depends on primary confirmation and a credible delivery path.",
      "views": [
        {
          "name": "Kenji Osei",
          "role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
          "icon": "🧠",
          "view": "The day has two pulls. Broad indexes were firm and the supplied intraday breadth proxy points to participation beyond the largest names, while yields were higher and oil eased. Breadth means how many covered stocks rose versus fell; here it supports the session reading, but it says nothing about which company can hold a 15-session path. The broad snapshot was stale at our cutoff.",
          "reasoning": "The model evidence needs two separate readings. H15 return quantiles describe the return at the horizon; adverse MAE describes the worst move against entry along the way. AKAM's eight-case return distribution is wide, and its adverse-MAE P10 is −37.4%. Neither number is a floor or a selection rule. The audit-only SHAP figures are raw log-odds attributions, not causal explanations."
        },
        {
          "name": "Nate Brooks",
          "role": "market structure and timing analyst",
          "icon": "📈",
          "view": "That backdrop makes the debt-heavy stories work harder. AKAM is different: the packet reports a seven-year Anthropic compute agreement, and the company already has operating cash flow. But the tape has a catch. At the sampled time the price was below VWAP, the average traded price weighted by volume, and near the day's lower range. The large-volume reaction had not held there.",
          "reasoning": "Akamai's sampled price was below VWAP, the volume-weighted average price, and near the day's lower range. That means the first burst of buying had not held at that sample. The N0 record is only one provider point, so we should not describe it as persistence."
        },
        {
          "name": "Marcus Feld",
          "role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
          "icon": "🦊",
          "view": "Still, that is the strongest business mechanism in this group. The report puts the agreement at $11.6 billion over seven years. That is something we can test through deployment and recognized revenue, not just an AI label.",
          "reasoning": "Agreed on the limits. The decision remains conditional on primary confirmation and a credible delivery path. The correction is to show the focused five-name comparison clearly, not to reopen the selection."
        },
        {
          "name": "Elena Vartanyan",
          "role": "independent statistical auditor",
          "icon": "🎯",
          "view": "Keep the two numbers separate. The reported $11.6 billion agreement is not the same as the optional expansion of up to another $9 billion. The sealed filing summary does not give us the contract schedule, so the detailed terms still rest on secondary reporting.",
          "reasoning": "And keep the sourcing precise. The $11.6 billion, seven-year figure comes from secondary reporting; the SEC summary in this packet does not verify the terms. The extra $9 billion is an option, not committed value."
        },
        {
          "name": "Priya Nandakumar",
          "role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
          "icon": "🛡️",
          "view": "It makes execution more plausible; it does not make the contract revenue today. SRFM has a second software customer and a per-flight royalty, but its prepared balance sheet shows about 16 cents of current assets for each dollar of current liabilities. That ratio is a short-term liquidity measure, and it shows why the attractive contract headline is not enough.",
          "reasoning": "AESI's small-sample H15 return P10 and median are positive, but that does not cancel AKAM's adverse-MAE tail; they measure different things. AESI still had price below VWAP near the lower part of its range, with agreement economics unquantified. I keep it as an alternative, not a reason to reverse the decision."
        }
      ],
      "conviction": {
        "status_phrase": "recorded",
        "basis": "Unchanged from the provisional decision. The multi-year reported mechanism and operating base support AKAM; contract-term confirmation, the intraday fade, and wide small-sample outcomes leave a substantial counter-case. These percentages describe confidence in the editorial resolution, not a forecast probability.",
        "risk": "",
        "resolution_pct": 58.0,
        "counter_case_pct": 27.0,
        "unresolved_pct": 15.0
      },
      "context_roundtable": {
        "mode": "coffee",
        "status": "complete",
        "consulted_voice_ids": [
          "elena",
          "marcus",
          "kenji",
          "priya",
          "nate"
        ],
        "summary": "The dated afternoon snapshot showed broad indexes modestly higher while volatility eased, set against elevated bond yields. An intraday breadth proxy supported wider participation at its capture time, but end-of-day breadth was unavailable and the main dashboard was stale by the review cutoff. A GDPNow estimate, upcoming labor and inflation data, easing oil and geopolitical uncertainty added competing signals. The conversation treats this as the day's setting, not as proof of any company's outlook.",
        "long_read": "The complete broad-market dashboard was captured at 16:54 UTC on September 25. Its three major equity indexes were higher and volatility was lower, while the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.181%, up 1.90 basis points from the prior reading. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, so that exact move was 0.019 percentage point. A separate headline reported the 30-year yield at 5.53%. The dashboard had a six-minute freshness limit and was already stale at the 17:46 UTC review cutoff, so it describes a dated afternoon snapshot rather than a live close.\n\nA separate intraday breadth proxy showed more advancers than decliners with fresh coverage across its target universe. That supports a reading of broader participation at that observation time; the end-of-day breadth layer was unavailable, so it cannot establish whether that participation lasted through the close. The Atlanta Fed's Q3 2026 GDPNow estimate was 5.0% real growth, a changeable nowcast rather than reported GDP. Reuters noted that upcoming jobs and inflation data would test the rate outlook. Oil was reported lower, while Iran's proposal concerning the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear talks remained conditional. Reports of strikes on Ukrainian data and telecom infrastructure added a separate security and resilience concern.\n\nFor the selected Akamai case, the wider setting brings growth expectations, financing conditions and digital infrastructure into the same conversation. Those forces can frame the reported AI-compute agreement, but they do not confirm its terms, delivery schedule or economics. The published thesis remains conditional on primary confirmation and a credible delivery path.",
        "transcript": [
          {
            "speaker_id": "elena",
            "text": "The last complete broad-market dashboard showed the major indexes modestly higher and volatility lower. That is a risk-on reading for that snapshot, not proof that every stock shared it.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-market-rally-resilient-yields-oil-prices-rising-tesla-semi-event?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo"
            ]
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "marcus",
            "text": "And the bond picture was still leaning the other way. The 10-year stood at 5.181%, up exactly 1.90 basis points from the prior reading; a separate headline put the 30-year at 5.53%. Green equities did not make rates disappear.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2103500445662769575",
              "https://x.com/elerianm/status/2103471095097770167"
            ]
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "priya",
            "text": "Hold on: is 1.90 basis points the yield level or the day's change? Readers can mistake a small move for a large jump when the level already looks high."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "marcus",
            "text": "It's the change: from 5.162% to 5.181%. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point, so the move was only 0.019 point. The higher level and wider bond pressure are the backdrop; that one-day change does not explain the equity session by itself.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://x.com/elerianm/status/2103471095097770167"
            ]
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "kenji",
            "text": "One timestamp caveat. The dashboard was complete when captured at 16:54 UTC, but its six-minute freshness window had passed by the 17:46 UTC review cutoff. Call it a dated snapshot, not live market color."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "nate",
            "text": "There was an intraday breadth read too: more advancers than decliners across the covered list, with fresh coverage at capture. That says participation was wider in that slice. The end-of-day layer was missing, so no one gets to call it the closing census."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "elena",
            "text": "Atlanta Fed GDPNow put its Q3 real-growth estimate at 5.0%. It is an estimate that updates as data arrive, not the reported quarter. Jobs and inflation still had room to change the rate conversation.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://x.com/AtlantaFed/status/2103498228725334353",
              "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/jobs-report-inflation-data-test-100645489.html"
            ]
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "priya",
            "text": "Oil eased, but Iran's Hormuz offer came with stated conditions. That leaves an energy-risk question open; a diplomatic headline is not the same as a resolved supply route.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/articles/commerzbank-says-long-end-treasuries-102547520.html",
              "https://x.com/CNBC/status/2103479901441396808"
            ]
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "kenji",
            "text": "The Ukraine report also described strikes targeting data centers and telecoms. It makes infrastructure resilience part of the day's backdrop; it does not tell us which provider wins business.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://x.com/shashj/status/2103451975618609484"
            ]
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "marcus",
            "text": "That is the useful bridge to Akamai: reports describe an $11.6 billion, seven-year Anthropic agreement, with further expansion optional. The supplied SEC filing does not confirm those terms. A big number is a headline until the contract and workload show up."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "priya",
            "text": "Right. Growth and infrastructure demand may help the setting, while higher rates make the economics matter more. The broader headlines do not settle delivery timing, margins or how much of the optional capacity is ever used.",
            "source_urls": [
              "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/articles/commerzbank-says-long-end-treasuries-102547520.html"
            ]
          }
        ],
        "source_urls": [
          "https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-market-rally-resilient-yields-oil-prices-rising-tesla-semi-event?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo",
          "https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2103500445662769575",
          "https://x.com/elerianm/status/2103471095097770167",
          "https://x.com/AtlantaFed/status/2103498228725334353",
          "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/jobs-report-inflation-data-test-100645489.html",
          "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/articles/commerzbank-says-long-end-treasuries-102547520.html",
          "https://x.com/CNBC/status/2103479901441396808",
          "https://x.com/shashj/status/2103451975618609484"
        ]
      },
      "context_roundtable_sources": [
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          "event_id": "mi_evt_d7f0a8628e17bff76d8923b6",
          "headline": "Jobs report, inflation data to test US rate path, economic strength",
          "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/jobs-report-inflation-data-test-100645489.html",
          "publisher": "Reuters",
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        },
        {
          "event_id": "mi_evt_2d6eedf67b47ae1d781d1c68",
          "headline": "Commerzbank Says Long-End Treasuries Stabilize After NY Selloff, Oil Price Lower, US Equity Futures Supported",
          "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/articles/commerzbank-says-long-end-treasuries-102547520.html",
          "publisher": "MT Newswires",
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          "published_at": "2026-09-25T10:25:47Z",
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        },
        {
          "event_id": "mi_evt_7616f42ee1b102d534753b51",
          "headline": "Dow Jones Futures Rise, Market Resilient Amid Higher Yields; Taiwan Semi Is In Buy Area",
          "url": "https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-market-rally-resilient-yields-oil-prices-rising-tesla-semi-event?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo",
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          "headline": "GDPNow estimates Q3 2026 real GDP growth at 5.0%",
          "url": "https://x.com/AtlantaFed/status/2103498228725334353",
          "publisher": "Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta",
          "source_quality": "market_context",
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          "published_at": "2026-09-25T14:53:53Z",
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          "url": "https://x.com/CNBC/status/2103479901441396808",
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          "event_id": "mi_evt_4c1db82376b7b3f7ea1abff2",
          "headline": "US 30-year Treasury yield reaches 5.53%",
          "url": "https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2103500445662769575",
          "publisher": "The Kobeissi Letter",
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          "event_id": "mi_evt_21d8c371d14878352281d2e3",
          "headline": "Commentary describes a broad US-led yield surge",
          "url": "https://x.com/elerianm/status/2103471095097770167",
          "publisher": "Mohamed A. El-Erian",
          "source_quality": "market_context",
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          "published_at": "2026-09-25T13:06:04Z",
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        {
          "event_id": "mi_evt_382fa8f7839441df31096475",
          "headline": "Russian strikes target Ukrainian data centres and telecoms",
          "url": "https://x.com/shashj/status/2103451975618609484",
          "publisher": "Shashank Joshi",
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          "published_at": "2026-09-25T11:50:05Z",
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    },
    "updates": [
      {
        "day": 15,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-16T22:18:29.191504Z",
        "date": "Session 15 · Oct 16, 2026 · 18:18 NASDAQ",
        "text": "Akamai's 15-session tracking ends at a canonical loss of 24.82%. Returns at sessions 1, 5 and 10 were -6.69%, -6.75% and -8.43%.\\n\\nThe case centered on secondary reports of a seven-year, .6 billion Anthropic agreement. The supplied SEC summary did not confirm the terms or a delivery path; the possible expansion was optional. The price result weakens the market case but does not prove the agreement false.\\n\\nA fresh 23:18 Canary capture showed .81 (-24.78% versus reference); the separate 22:47 extended-hours quote was .35 (-0.52%). These are distinct from the canonical session-15 result. Current technical fields and X items were unavailable. Tracking is closed.",
        "price": 88.38,
        "pct": -24.33,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -24.29,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -24.29,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.37,
        "session_day": 15,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$88.38 · -24.29% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": true,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-434b10b49579cbe43b683b2088efe2ea2244615662efedaee0e74d1004e3b4cd",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-25T21:20:03Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 14,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-15T22:10:09.866057Z",
        "date": "Session 14 · Oct 15, 2026 · 18:10 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss narrowed by 0.53 percentage points to 20.96% at the latest capture, a modest recovery from the prior note. Shares were up 0.67% in the regular-session snapshot, but post-market trading stood 0.56% lower; price remained below its falling long-term averages. The reported Anthropic contract terms and delivery schedule are still unconfirmed, so the price repair does not resolve the thesis's key evidence gap.",
        "price": 92.32,
        "pct": -20.96,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -20.92,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -20.92,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.55,
        "session_day": 14,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$92.32 · -20.92% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-15T21:07:49Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 14,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-15T19:45:50.877791Z",
        "date": "Session 14 · Oct 15, 2026 · 15:45 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss narrowed by 3.59 percentage points to a 21.49% loss; at the late-session capture, shares stood 2.58% above their volume-weighted average near the top of the range, a real short-term repair. The stock still trails Technology by 15.08 points over 20 sessions, while the reported Anthropic terms and delivery path remain unverified; the near-even one-session model read does not confirm a broader turn.",
        "price": 91.68,
        "pct": -21.49,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -21.47,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -21.47,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.61,
        "session_day": 14,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$91.68 · -21.47% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": true,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-9c53346278fd2547e95184c83fb94212f36168caaeea70476e47af0f60b754c7",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-15T19:21:33.629030Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 14,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-15T14:42:09.825725Z",
        "date": "Session 14 · Oct 15, 2026 · 10:42 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened 3.60 points to 25.08% as shares fell 4.63% and stood 0.49% below their volume-weighted session average at the early capture; the 20-session gap to Technology widened to 17.50 points. That materially weakens the market case, while the reported Anthropic terms and delivery path remain unverified; the nearly flat one-session model read leaves the commercial claim unresolved.",
        "price": 87.46,
        "pct": -25.08,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -25.08,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -25.08,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.64,
        "session_day": 14,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$87.46 · -25.08% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-28c6197a4d2e6389eba799679ecb08cac58ae7fbcceefd9dbc8baa93924e3d37",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-15T14:06:44.673876Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 13,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-14T21:41:24.419184Z",
        "date": "Session 13 · Oct 14, 2026 · 17:41 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss narrowed just 0.09 percentage points to 21.48%, but shares still fell 8.23% at the latest regular-session cut, ended 1.17% below VWAP near the lower fifth of the range, and lagged XLK by 15.75 points over 20 sessions. Nearly flat after-hours trading does little to repair that record; the reported Anthropic terms and a credible delivery path remain unconfirmed in the sealed evidence.",
        "price": 91.71,
        "pct": -21.48,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -21.44,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -21.44,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.08,
        "session_day": 13,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$91.71 · -21.44% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": {
          "phase": "post",
          "text": "Aftermarket update: $91.58 (-0.14% vs regular close) · Oct 14, 2026 · 17:20 NASDAQ"
        },
        "extended_hours": {
          "phase": "post",
          "price": 91.58,
          "ext_pct": -0.14,
          "as_of": "2026-10-14T21:20:46Z",
          "persisted": false
        },
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-14T21:20:46Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 13,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-14T20:37:14.578144Z",
        "date": "Session 13 · Oct 14, 2026 · 16:37 NASDAQ",
        "text": "Akamai's tracked loss widened 1.41 points to 21.57% as shares fell 8.32%, traded 1.17% below VWAP near the lower fifth of the range, and lagged Technology by 15.99 points over 20 sessions. This deepens the price pressure on the reported Anthropic agreement, but it still does not verify whether the $11.6 billion terms are binding or how delivery would translate into revenue.",
        "price": 91.62,
        "pct": -21.57,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -21.52,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -21.52,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.31,
        "session_day": 13,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$91.62 · -21.52% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-14T19:41:13.876792Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 13,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-14T14:33:50.953900Z",
        "date": "Session 13 · Oct 14, 2026 · 10:33 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened 5.72 points to 20.16% as shares fell 6.79% at the capture, traded 2.45% below the session average near the low and underperformed SPY by 6.15 points; its 20-session lag to Technology is now 15.72 points. The model remains near even, with a near-zero median and a two-sided session-15 range, while the reported Anthropic terms still lack primary confirmation or a delivery path.",
        "price": 93.145,
        "pct": -20.16,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -20.21,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -20.21,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -5.81,
        "session_day": 13,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$93.14 · -20.21% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-bcf0756683340786e8ce67c5b6791b3ea8124a355be0c001276af55162913dbd",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-14T14:06:37.850462Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 12,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-13T21:46:05.079274Z",
        "date": "Session 12 · Oct 13, 2026 · 17:46 NASDAQ",
        "text": "Akamai's tracked loss widened 0.36 points to 14.44% as shares fell 1.69% and sat 0.24% below VWAP; its 20-session lag to Technology expanded to 12.01 points. Dollar turnover was 0.73 times its 20-day average, while the reported Anthropic terms still lack primary confirmation and a delivery path, leaving the market case weaker without establishing that the agreement is false.",
        "price": 99.93,
        "pct": -14.44,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -14.4,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -14.4,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.23,
        "session_day": 12,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$99.93 · -14.40% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-13T21:10:07Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 12,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-13T20:08:00.431749Z",
        "date": "Session 12 · Oct 13, 2026 · 16:08 NASDAQ",
        "text": "Akamai’s tracked loss narrowed 0.95 points to 14.08%, even as shares fell 1.43% and traded at 0.88 times average volume; price remained above VWAP around midrange. The reported seven-year Anthropic agreement still lacks primary confirmation and a credible delivery path, so this modest repair does not close the original evidence gap.",
        "price": 100.2,
        "pct": -14.08,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -14.17,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -14.17,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.8,
        "session_day": 12,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$100.20 · -14.17% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-13T19:24:51.998952Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 12,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-13T15:27:37.571513Z",
        "date": "Session 12 · Oct 13, 2026 · 11:27 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened 2.06 percentage points to 15.03% even as shares rose 0.64% and held 0.59% above the day's volume-weighted average price on very light volume. The 20-session lag to Technology is 9.71 points. This small intraday repair does little to answer whether the reported Anthropic commitment is binding or can translate into a credible delivery and revenue path.",
        "price": 102.305,
        "pct": -15.03,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -12.37,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -12.37,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.56,
        "session_day": 12,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$102.31 · -12.37% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-13T14:06:26.349567Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 11,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-12T22:06:26.842625Z",
        "date": "Session 11 · Oct 12, 2026 · 18:06 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened 0.05 points to 12.97% as shares fell 4.96%, ended 0.37% below the volume-weighted average price and stayed near the lower part of the session range on 0.82 times average volume. The 20-session lag to Technology is 10.27 points; with the reported Anthropic agreement still lacking primary confirmation and a delivery path, the price break adds pressure without clarifying the contract thesis.",
        "price": 101.65,
        "pct": -12.97,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -12.93,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -12.93,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.12,
        "session_day": 11,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$101.65 · -12.93% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-12T20:52:48Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 11,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-12T19:43:51.731483Z",
        "date": "Session 11 · Oct 12, 2026 · 15:43 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss narrowed 0.21 percentage points to 12.92%, with shares at USD 101.78, 0.23% below their volume-weighted average price and at 0.57 times their three-month average volume. Over 20 sessions, AKAM is down 3.57% while Technology is up 6.34%, leaving a 9.91-point lag; the reported Anthropic agreement still lacks primary confirmation or a delivery path, so the slight return improvement does not repair the thesis.",
        "price": 101.78,
        "pct": -12.92,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -12.81,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -12.81,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.23,
        "session_day": 11,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$101.78 · -12.81% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-12T19:23:05.083706Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 11,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-12T19:11:14.691726Z",
        "date": "Session 11 · Oct 12, 2026 · 15:11 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened 5.36 percentage points to 13.13% as shares fell 5.08% to $101.52, 0.54% below the volume-weighted average price (VWAP); its 20-session lag to Technology is now 10.17 points. The selloff came on 0.52 times three-month average volume, with participation decelerating and price near the lower fifth of its captured range. The supplied SEC record still does not confirm the reported Anthropic terms or a delivery path, and the near-even model read offers no directional support. This materially weakens the market case while leaving the claimed commercial mechanism unverified.",
        "price": 101.52,
        "pct": -13.13,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -13.04,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -13.04,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -5.38,
        "session_day": 11,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$101.52 · -13.04% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-829b1027a4267319e3ccd44ce1a6b0ed4253c9276717289eb7306ba356d226a4",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-12T18:48:37.209746Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 10,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-09T19:40:36.148787Z",
        "date": "Session 10 · Oct 9, 2026 · 15:40 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss narrowed 4.73 points to -7.77% as shares rose 6.83% and moved 1.90% above VWAP; the 20-session lag to Technology also narrowed, but remains 5.23 points. That is a real market recovery, yet price remains just below its 21-day average and the reported Anthropic terms still lack primary confirmation or a delivery path; the model's session-15 range stays wide around a near-flat median.",
        "price": 107.795,
        "pct": -7.77,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.66,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -7.66,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 4.66,
        "session_day": 10,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$107.80 · -7.66% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-38d8d12d5ec2a997104cf1e83b90dbc586ba4a64d4f9c1bcee073aa019d8927b",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-09T19:21:12.332945Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 10,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-09T14:49:12.911083Z",
        "date": "Session 10 · Oct 9, 2026 · 10:49 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM tracked loss narrowed 1.11 points to 12.50%, and the current quote is 1.44% higher. That rebound is on 0.10 times average volume and remains 0.08% below VWAP, while the twenty-session gap to Technology is still 9.67 points. The reported Anthropic terms and delivery path remain without primary confirmation.",
        "price": 102.355,
        "pct": -12.5,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -12.32,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -12.32,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.25,
        "session_day": 10,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$102.36 · -12.32% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-09T14:06:45.252947Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 9,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-08T21:54:02.483841Z",
        "date": "Session 9 · Oct 8, 2026 · 17:54 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss narrowed 0.15 points to 13.61%, while shares fell 3.55% to $100.90 and remained 0.59% below VWAP on 1.22 times average volume. The 20-session lag to Technology is 12.60 points; the market pressure and missing primary confirmation of the reported Anthropic terms or delivery path keep the thesis conditional.",
        "price": 100.9,
        "pct": -13.61,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -13.57,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -13.57,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.32,
        "session_day": 9,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$100.90 · -13.57% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-08T21:16:58Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 9,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:44:31.430010Z",
        "date": "Session 9 · Oct 8, 2026 · 15:44 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened another 1.88 points to 13.76% as shares fell 3.91% and stayed below the session's volume-weighted average price; its twenty-session lag to Technology widened to 12.81 points. That is real pressure on the market case. The package still has no primary confirmation of the reported $11.6 billion Anthropic terms or a delivery path, and the near-even model range cannot settle whether the reported agreement is binding.",
        "price": 100.52,
        "pct": -13.76,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -13.89,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -13.89,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.12,
        "session_day": 9,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$100.52 · -13.89% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-856bef57fac48e21e07db5f2b1501f996e44f317e1f5b537f984b1fecb516e61",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-08T19:22:13.087729Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 9,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:02:07.784096Z",
        "date": "Session 9 · Oct 8, 2026 · 11:02 NASDAQ",
        "text": "Tracked loss widened 1.44 points to -11.88% as shares fell 1.54% to $103.00 on 0.16 times average volume. Price remained 0.24% below VWAP and AKAM lagged Technology by 12.09 points over twenty sessions; the weak tape does not close the evidence gap around the unconfirmed infrastructure agreement.",
        "price": 102.995,
        "pct": -11.88,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -11.77,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -11.77,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.38,
        "session_day": 9,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$103.00 · -11.77% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-08T14:06:42.195821Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 8,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-07T22:09:22.654867Z",
        "date": "Session 8 · Oct 7, 2026 · 18:09 NASDAQ",
        "text": "On session 8, AKAM tracked loss widened 0.49 points to -10.44% as shares fell 3.69% to $104.61 on 0.92 times average volume. Price was 0.30% below VWAP, and AKAM lagged Technology by 12.74 points over twenty sessions. The reported $11.6 billion Anthropic infrastructure agreement still lacks company or SEC confirmation of its terms and revenue path; today tape does not repair that evidence gap.",
        "price": 104.61,
        "pct": -10.44,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -10.39,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -10.39,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.67,
        "session_day": 8,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$104.61 · -10.39% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-07T21:17:22Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 8,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:35:52.721745Z",
        "date": "Session 8 · Oct 7, 2026 · 16:35 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened another 0.13 points to -9.95% as shares fell 2.97% to $105.39. The capture regained VWAP but stayed in the lower part of its range on below-average volume, so the immediate tape offers only a partial repair. The reported Anthropic agreement still lacks company or SEC confirmation of its terms and revenue path.",
        "price": 105.39,
        "pct": -9.95,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -9.72,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -9.72,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.03,
        "session_day": 8,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$105.39 · -9.72% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-07T19:21:41.146640Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 8,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:08:36.174821Z",
        "date": "Session 8 · Oct 7, 2026 · 11:08 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened 2.49 points to -9.82% as the $105.36 capture fell 3.01%, sat 0.58% below the session average near the low, and lagged Technology by 11.36 points over 20 sessions. This is a clearer deterioration in price follow-through. It does not verify or disprove the reported Anthropic agreement, which still lacks company or SEC confirmation of its terms and revenue path.",
        "price": 105.355,
        "pct": -9.82,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -9.75,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -9.75,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.46,
        "session_day": 8,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$105.36 · -9.75% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-07T14:06:33.450164Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 7,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:03:32.895955Z",
        "date": "Session 7 · Oct 6, 2026 · 16:03 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss deepened 0.60 points to -7.33%, despite a small 0.22% daily rise in the $108.23 capture. Price remained below VWAP near the bottom of its range on light volume, and its 20-session lag versus Technology widened. The reported Anthropic agreement still lacks issuer or SEC confirmation of its terms and revenue path, so the catalyst remains unverified.",
        "price": 108.23,
        "pct": -7.33,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.29,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -7.29,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.54,
        "session_day": 7,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$108.23 · -7.29% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-06T19:21:35.651397Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 7,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:47:31.775015Z",
        "date": "Session 7 · Oct 6, 2026 · 11:47 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM tracked loss narrowed 0.81 points to 6.73% as the capture rose 0.80%, yet it still trails Technology by 4.84 points over 20 sessions. Issuer evidence does not confirm the reported Anthropic agreement terms. No confirmed structure or delivery path appears in the prepared evidence, so the price improvement has not resolved the thesis uncertainty.",
        "price": 108.855,
        "pct": -6.73,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -6.75,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -6.75,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.75,
        "session_day": 7,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$108.86 · -6.75% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-06T14:06:59.842254Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 6,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:32:36.723070Z",
        "date": "Session 6 · Oct 5, 2026 · 18:32 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened by 0.31 points to 7.54% as the $107.99 capture fell 0.85%, barely above VWAP on 0.61 times expected volume. Its 20-session lag to Technology is 4.66 points, adding to the weak tape. The reported Anthropic agreement remains a specific commercial catalyst, but its terms and a path from commitment to recognized revenue are still unconfirmed.",
        "price": 107.99,
        "pct": -7.54,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.5,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -7.5,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.25,
        "session_day": 6,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$107.99 · -7.50% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-05T21:27:23Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 6,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-05T20:27:54.589770Z",
        "date": "Session 6 · Oct 5, 2026 · 16:27 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened 0.31 points to 7.23%. The $107.69 capture fell 1.13% and sat just 0.10% above VWAP on 0.61 times expected volume; its 20-session lag to Technology is 4.90 points. This weakens the tape around the reported Anthropic agreement, whose terms remain unconfirmed in the cited filing, and offers no evidence that the potential expansion has converted to revenue.",
        "price": 107.69,
        "pct": -7.23,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.75,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -7.75,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.06,
        "session_day": 6,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$107.69 · -7.75% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-05T19:21:38.104627Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 6,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:27:46.464464Z",
        "date": "Session 6 · Oct 5, 2026 · 11:27 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened 0.58 points to 6.92%, even as the $108.93 capture held 0.48% above VWAP on only 0.36 time-adjusted volume. Its twenty-session lag to Technology narrowed to 3.14 points, but neither this hold nor the relative repair establishes revenue from the reported Anthropic agreement.",
        "price": 108.925,
        "pct": -6.92,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -6.69,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -6.69,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.01,
        "session_day": 6,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$108.92 · -6.69% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-05T14:06:51.007319Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 5,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:27:19.961956Z",
        "date": "Session 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · 07:27 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss narrowed 2.61 points to 6.34%, but its $108.92 capture remained 1.15% below VWAP on 1.20 times average volume. Its 20-session lag to Technology eased to 5.17 points, yet neither this bounce nor the broader record verifies the reported Anthropic agreement's terms or a path to revenue.",
        "price": 108.92,
        "pct": -6.34,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -6.7,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -6.7,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.2,
        "session_day": 5,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$108.92 · -6.70% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-02T22:41:34Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 3,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-30T22:01:48.148299Z",
        "date": "Session 3 · Sep 30, 2026 · 18:01 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM tracked loss held at 8.95%; the $106.35 capture remained 2.58% below VWAP on 1.49 times average volume, and the after-hours quote was $106.56. The 20-session return trails Technology by 6.69 points, leaving the market test weak; neither that pressure nor the small after-hours bounce verifies the reported Anthropic agreement terms or a path to revenue.",
        "price": 106.35,
        "pct": -8.95,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -8.9,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -8.9,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.18,
        "session_day": 3,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$106.35 · -8.90% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-30T20:57:24Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 3,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-30T20:59:07.129908Z",
        "date": "Session 3 · Sep 30, 2026 · 16:59 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM’s tracked loss widened 4.49 percentage points to 8.95% as the late-day capture fell to $106.56, 2.39% below its volume-weighted average price and near the session low; volume reached 1.29 times its three-month average, while its 20-session lag versus Technology widened to 6.65 points. The market test has clearly deteriorated, but the move still cannot verify or disprove the reported Anthropic agreement: the supplied SEC filing does not establish its terms or a path from commitment to revenue.",
        "price": 106.56,
        "pct": -8.95,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -8.72,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -8.72,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.99,
        "session_day": 3,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$106.56 · -8.72% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-ee47e7c39a45bd1871f6e1140358af083f396694e1975edc6fe757ebce3bf2b5",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-30T19:58:16.738162Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 3,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-30T14:55:36.968023Z",
        "date": "Session 3 · Sep 30, 2026 · 10:55 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM tracked loss narrowed 2.69 percentage points to 4.46%, and the 10 a.m. capture put shares 0.36% above the volume-weighted average price; volume so far is one fifth of its three-month average. Its 20-session lag behind Technology narrowed from 4.45 to 3.60 points, but the SEC filing supplied still does not confirm the reported $11.6 billion terms or a delivery path. The model remains near even on another decline and gives a wide range, so the tape improved while the business claim remains unresolved.",
        "price": 110.055,
        "pct": -4.46,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -5.73,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -5.73,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.37,
        "session_day": 3,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$110.06 · -5.73% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-56ea94a8bd0824fe135055f71ac8d3e81d0c1f472e12e6bf27ad19c6c56136e8",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-30T14:10:11.628897Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 2,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:53:26.305902Z",
        "date": "Session 2 · Sep 29, 2026 · 17:53 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss narrowed 0.14 points to 7.15%; the latest capture was $108.45, 0.90% above VWAP despite a 0.50% decline for the session. Its 20-session return still trails Technology by 4.45 points and the flow measure remains distribution, while the reported infrastructure agreement has no primary confirmation or delivery path in the packet; the price repair does not settle the business case.",
        "price": 108.45,
        "pct": -7.15,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.1,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -7.1,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.36,
        "session_day": 2,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$108.45 · -7.10% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": {
          "phase": "post",
          "text": "Aftermarket update: $108.25 (-0.18% vs regular close) · Sep 29, 2026 · 17:25 NASDAQ"
        },
        "extended_hours": {
          "phase": "post",
          "price": 108.25,
          "ext_pct": -0.18,
          "as_of": "2026-09-29T21:25:55Z",
          "persisted": false
        },
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-29T21:25:55Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 2,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:56:37.417075Z",
        "date": "Session 2 · Sep 29, 2026 · 15:56 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss narrowed 0.93 percentage points to 7.29% as shares eased 0.88% to $108.03 but held 0.51% above the session VWAP. The improvement remains fragile: its 20-session return trails Technology by 4.93 points, the flow measure shows distribution and dollar volume was 82% of its 20-day norm. The reported infrastructure agreement still lacks primary confirmation and a delivery path, so today's tape does not resolve the business thesis.",
        "price": 108.03,
        "pct": -7.29,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.46,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -7.46,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.16,
        "session_day": 2,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$108.03 · -7.46% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-29T19:21:52.249581Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 2,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-29T14:58:49.528801Z",
        "date": "Session 2 · Sep 29, 2026 · 10:58 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened 1.53 points to 8.22% as the captured $107.85 quote sat below the $108.84 session VWAP near the bottom of its range; its 20-session return now trails Technology by 5.32 points. That adds pressure to the reported $11.6 billion infrastructure agreement, whose terms and delivery path remain unconfirmed in the supplied filing. The model stays near even with a wide range, so it neither explains nor reverses the selling.",
        "price": 107.85,
        "pct": -8.22,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -7.62,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -7.62,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.98,
        "session_day": 2,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$107.85 · -7.62% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-225a8677e6a2c34487e66c5e0f6159cf45b56d770ec7628f34c8cc26077473c9",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-29T14:06:23.151493Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 1,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-28T22:01:41.662395Z",
        "date": "Session 1 · Sep 28, 2026 · 18:01 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM tracked loss widened another 0.35 points to -6.69% as shares fell 4.34% to $108.99 on twice average volume, closing 2.19% below the session volume-weighted average price. Its 20-session return now trails Technology by 3.35 points and the accumulation measure shows distribution; that heavy selling adds pressure to the reported infrastructure agreement, whose binding terms and delivery path remain unconfirmed in the packet.",
        "price": 108.99,
        "pct": -6.69,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -6.64,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -6.64,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.0,
        "session_day": 1,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$108.99 · -6.64% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-28T21:26:09Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 1,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-28T20:09:28.765683Z",
        "date": "Session 1 · Sep 28, 2026 · 16:09 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's tracked loss widened 2.44 points to -6.34% as shares fell 3.32%, ending 1.14% below the session's volume-weighted average price despite 1.55 times average volume. Its 20-session return now trails Technology by 2.28 points; the heavy participation accompanied further weakness, while the reported infrastructure agreement still lacks primary confirmation and a clear delivery path.",
        "price": 110.16,
        "pct": -6.34,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -5.64,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -5.64,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.73,
        "session_day": 1,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$110.16 · -5.64% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-28T19:21:40.218900Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 1,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-28T14:53:52.863033Z",
        "date": "Session 1 · Sep 28, 2026 · 10:53 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM tracked loss widened 1.45 points to 3.90% on session 1; price was only 0.06% above the latest session VWAP, still well below the prior $119.28 event VWAP, with no confirmed structure. Its 20-session comparison has turned from a 1.63-point lag to a modest 0.82-point lead over Technology, but the reported seven-year agreement still lacks primary confirmation and a delivery path, leaving the thesis unresolved.",
        "price": 113.34,
        "pct": -3.9,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -2.91,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -2.91,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.51,
        "session_day": 1,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$113.34 · -2.91% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-f9601db1ed6117f63fa0c2bd11f4c608bf3e92dc7dc515c3a2c619af3d0bf29e",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-28T14:06:10.888804Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 0,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-25T22:50:00.552813Z",
        "date": "Session 0 · Sep 25, 2026 · 18:50 NASDAQ",
        "text": "AKAM's first tracked session stands at -2.45% against its episode reference. Despite an 8.85-times average-volume ratio, the $113.94 capture was 4.48% below the $119.28 VWAP, with no confirmed structure; its 20-session return trails Technology by 1.63 points. Strong participation alongside the below-VWAP fade is an early counter-signal, while the prepared packet does not establish delivery or revenue conversion for the reported Anthropic agreement.",
        "price": 113.94,
        "pct": -2.45,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -2.4,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -2.4,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.4,
        "session_day": 0,
        "reference_price": 116.74,
        "reference_text": "$113.94 · -2.40% from $116.74 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-09-25T21:29:45Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      }
    ],
    "observed_outcomes": [
      {
        "label": "+1 sessions",
        "status": "complete",
        "return": -6.69,
        "reference_text": "-6.69% from $116.74 base",
        "price": 108.99,
        "updated": "Sep 28, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQ",
        "mfe": -1.47,
        "mae": -6.85
      },
      {
        "label": "+5 sessions",
        "status": "complete",
        "return": -6.75,
        "reference_text": "-6.75% from $116.74 base",
        "price": 108.92,
        "updated": "Oct 3, 2026 · 07:09 NASDAQ",
        "mfe": -1.46,
        "mae": -10.96
      },
      {
        "label": "+10 sessions",
        "status": "complete",
        "return": -8.43,
        "reference_text": "-8.43% from $116.74 base",
        "price": 106.95,
        "updated": "Oct 12, 2026 · 03:30 NASDAQ",
        "mfe": -1.46,
        "mae": -14.98
      },
      {
        "label": "+15 sessions",
        "status": "complete",
        "return": -24.82,
        "reference_text": "-24.82% from $116.74 base",
        "price": 87.81,
        "updated": "Oct 16, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQ",
        "mfe": -1.46,
        "mae": -26.23
      }
    ],
    "candidate_comparison_history": [
      {
        "day": 0,
        "timestamp": "2026-09-25T22:50:00.552813Z",
        "comparison": {
          "schema_version": "public-candidate-comparison.v1",
          "captured_at": "2026-09-25T22:50:00.552813Z",
          "base_definition": "Candidates use the publication reference; benchmarks use the previous regular close.",
          "source": "sealed_update_market_context + canonical_candidate_snapshot + market_trajectory + public_market_snapshot",
          "rows": [
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              "symbol": "AKAM",
              "role": "selected",
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              "change_since_prior_pct": -0.0789,
              "volume_ratio": 8.85,
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              "as_of": "2026-09-25T21:29:45Z",
              "source": "sealed_extended_quote",
              "name": "Akamai Technologies, Inc.",
              "episode_id": "n0:AKAM:2026-09-25",
              "ema_trend": "112.11 > 110.92 > 113.35",
              "vwap_state": "below",
              "selection_as_of": "2026-09-25T17:39:33.089768Z",
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              "symbol": "SRFM",
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              "return_since_base_pct": 2.1339,
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              "change_since_prior_pct": -0.885,
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              "vwap": 1.06,
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              "extended_hours_pct": null,
              "as_of": "2026-09-25T21:20:08Z",
              "source": "yfinance_quote",
              "name": "Surf Air Mobility Inc.",
              "episode_id": "n0:SRFM:2026-09-25",
              "ema_trend": "0.81 > 0.73 > 0.75",
              "vwap_state": "above",
              "selection_as_of": "2026-09-25T17:41:01.289471Z",
              "price_as_of": "2026-09-25T21:20:08Z",
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            },
            {
              "symbol": "PPLI",
              "role": "alternative",
              "price": 40.06,
              "base_price": 39.84,
              "return_since_base_pct": 0.5522,
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              "change_since_prior_pct": -0.0998,
              "volume_ratio": 1.44,
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