CAAP episode 20260928_CAAP_MIDDAY
Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.
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"published_at": "2026-09-28T18:37:13.521219Z",
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"type": "equity",
"symbol": "CAAP",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"name": "Corporación América Airports S.A."
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"date": "September 28, 2026",
"generated_at": "2026-09-28T18:37:13.521219Z",
"original_published_at": null,
"session_tag": "midday",
"label": "Market coverage",
"try_label": "Try of the Day",
"public_status": "Try of the Day",
"why_today": "Argentina approved changes to CAAP’s airport concession arrangement tied to passenger growth and investment requirements. The earlier quote snapshot recorded a price of $25.205 and a change of +5.55%; a later pre-cutoff observation recorded a price of $26.00 and a change of +8.877727%. This one-session strengthening supports a current thesis but cannot establish persistence through S15. The revised terms’ effect on investment and cash flow remains unquantified.",
"entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: Argentina’s approved airport concession changes connect investment requirements with passenger growth. That creates a specific, testable question about whether the revised arrangement supports the operating path. CAAP has the strongest combined event and observed market path in this set, though the financial effect of the revised terms is not yet quantified. Invalidation boundary: The positive continuation thesis is undermined if official terms show increased or accelerated investment obligations without compensating concession economics, or if the event response unwinds and CAAP persistently underperforms the broad market.",
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"volume": 383433,
"average_volume": 207095,
"volume_ratio": 1.85,
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"catalyst": "Corporacion America Airports Says Argentina Approves Changes to Aeropuertos Concession Deal",
"sector": "Industrials",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"sec_signal": "NO_RECENT_FORM4_SIGNAL"
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"status": "Try Of The Day",
"summary": "Argentina approved changes to CAAP’s airport concession arrangement tied to passenger growth and investment requirements. The earlier quote snapshot recorded a price of $25.205 and a change of +5.55%; a later pre-cutoff observation recorded a price of $26.00 and a change of +8.877727%. This one-session strengthening supports a provisional thesis but cannot establish persistence through S15. The revised terms’ effect on investment and cash flow remains unquantified.",
"views": [
{
"name": "Elena Vartanyan",
"role": "independent statistical auditor",
"icon": "🎯",
"view": "The shared snapshot has all three broad benchmarks lower, with volatility and the 10-year yield higher. We are judging a 15-session path—fifteen market days, roughly three weeks—so today’s move is only its first checkpoint.",
"reasoning": "The selected CAAP thesis, next check, falsifier, confidence and dissent are restated in full. No ML probability is used as a public reason for selection, and the profile and logo work remain for the final Coffee."
},
{
"name": "Kenji Osei",
"role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
"icon": "🧠",
"view": "The breadth readings need to stay separate. The public snapshot has no breadth value; a different, complete intraday quote proxy points to broad weakness. That frames the session, but it does not tell us why any one stock moved.",
"reasoning": "The four retained alternatives each have a specific company-related question: DPRO’s investment, MX’s partnership, SCYX’s BARDA award, and TOYO’s supply agreements. The comparison remains a five-candidate public shortlist, not a second selection."
},
{
"name": "Marcus Feld",
"role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
"icon": "🦊",
"view": "Oil and geopolitical risk matter for funding and operating costs, and higher yields can make investment plans harder to finance. Those are shared pressures, not a company-specific explanation.",
"reasoning": "The CAAP price level and change are now stated separately, with the earlier quote and later trajectory timestamps shown. The later one-session strength is evidence of response, not proof that the move will persist through fifteen sessions."
},
{
"name": "Priya Nandakumar",
"role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
"icon": "🛡️",
"view": "That makes the test sharper: a candidate needs an identifiable business mechanism and a market path that holds up. A broad market decline alone cannot supply either one.",
"reasoning": "There was also a cutoff issue in the earlier TOYO quote citation. The revised row uses the 17:17:10 UTC trajectory change of -4.5973077%, before the 17:19:32 UTC cutoff; the later quote snapshot is omitted."
},
{
"name": "Nate Brooks",
"role": "market structure and timing analyst",
"icon": "📈",
"view": "CAAP is the clearest candidate to test first. Argentina approved concession changes linked to passenger growth and investment requirements; its quote snapshot was up 5.55%, and a later trajectory point was stronger.",
"reasoning": "SCYX and MX both deserve comparison. SCYX has a BARDA award worth up to $214 million, but that ceiling is not guaranteed revenue and the chart shows a sharp spike and retreat. MX’s later move reached +18.484854%, yet the partnership has not established customer demand."
}
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"conviction": {
"status_phrase": "recorded",
"basis": "The majority supports Try of the Day because CAAP has a company-specific approved operating change and a strengthening pre-cutoff path. Priya dissents in favor of Raw Try because the concession economics are not quantified. These percentages express panel judgment; they are not model probabilities or selection thresholds.",
"risk": "",
"resolution_pct": 65.0,
"counter_case_pct": 25.0,
"unresolved_pct": 10.0
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"marcus",
"priya",
"nate",
"kenji"
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"summary": "The later market snapshot showed broad equity weakness alongside higher implied equity volatility and a higher Treasury yield. Earlier oil and rates reports add geopolitical and funding context, while the separate intraday breadth proxy must remain distinct from the snapshot’s unavailable breadth field. These conditions frame the day; they do not establish the economics of CAAP’s concession terms.",
"long_read": "At 16:53:50 UTC, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 were lower. The VIX stood at 15.86, up 6.66%, and the U.S. 10-year yield was at 5.245%, with a reported change of +6.10 basis points. The morning market reports placed oil and Treasury yields in a tense geopolitical setting: Reuters described weaker futures as oil spiked following rejection of an Iran peace proposal, while an earlier Elerian post paired a 5.22% 10-year yield with Brent approaching $110. Those reports and the later snapshot have different timestamps and measures; they do not establish a single cause for the full session. The later commodity snapshot also showed gold at $4,165.60, down 3.60%, and WTI at $93.14, up 0.79%. A separate intraday proxy had fresh quotes across its 300-name sample and leaned toward decliners, but the public market snapshot’s own breadth field was unavailable and its end-of-day layer was not captured. The committee treated that proxy as a limited read on participation, not a second market score. CAAP’s own profile says passenger traffic drives most of its aeronautical and commercial revenue and describes investment planning as part of its operating model. That makes funding conditions relevant background for airport investment obligations, while the market yield remains distinct from CAAP’s actual borrowing cost. The issuer-specific concession terms still determine the contract economics; the day’s macro tape does not supply them.",
"transcript": [
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "Start with the timestamp, not the headline. In the 16:53 UTC snapshot the S&P 500 was down 0.55%, the Nasdaq 100 down 0.92%, and the Russell 2000 down 0.47%. The VIX—an options-based gauge of expected near-term S&P swings—stood at 15.86, up 6.66%. That describes pressure at the capture, not direction tomorrow."
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "The morning Reuters item linked weaker futures with oil spiking after the Iran peace proposal was rejected. It sets the day’s macro tension, but a headline cannot account for every later move.",
"source_urls": [
"https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-st-futures-drop-oil-100328986.html"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "The sealed 16:53 snapshot puts the U.S. 10-year yield at 5.245%, with a reported change of +6.10 basis points. Earlier, Elerian described a 5.22% yield as Brent neared $110; those readings have different timestamps.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/elerianm/status/2104498901927723271"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "Remind me: 6.10 basis points is 0.061 percentage points? The yield level alone is easy to mistake for the size of the move."
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "Right. 5.245% is where the yield stood; +6.10 basis points is the measured change. That is the benchmark move, not CAAP’s own borrowing rate."
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "CAAP’s profile says passenger traffic drives most of its aeronautical and commercial revenue, while growth brings infrastructure investment. Its Argentine concession announcement adds a contract question, but the supplied material does not quantify the cash-flow effect.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1717393/000110465926111196/tm2626455d1_6k.htm"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "That makes rates relevant to the investment schedule. If required work moves forward, its timing and funding affect the economics."
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "Relevant as context, yes—but not a direct hit. A market yield is not CAAP’s borrowing rate, and it does not tell us how the concession allocates the investment burden."
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "Fair. I’d call it a funding sensitivity to check, not evidence that the economics worsened. Passenger-linked revenue and the cost and timing of capital work sit on opposite sides of that question."
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "The commodity row was mixed: gold was $4,165.60, down 3.60%, while WTI was $93.14, up 0.79%. Those are two separate levels and changes, not one unified oil-shock reading."
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "Breadth—how widely gains or losses are shared across stocks—was unavailable in the public market snapshot. A separate Finnhub intraday proxy had fresh quotes across its full sample and leaned toward decliners, which qualifies participation in that sample."
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "So full coverage means it saw every U.S. stock?"
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "Every name in that 300-stock proxy had a fresh quote; it was not every U.S. listing or an end-of-day census. Fresh coverage helps the sample, but it does not replace the missing breadth field in the public snapshot."
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "One more rates lens: a market-structure report said the MOVE index rose 19% over the week. It tracks market-implied swings in Treasury prices, so it signals choppier bond pricing, not the direction of yields or CAAP’s financing terms.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2104354650048586132"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "That leaves us with a soft equity tape, a measured rise in the 10-year yield, and more bond-price uncertainty alongside the oil headlines. It is a demanding backdrop for capital plans, but it cannot fill in the issuer’s contract economics.",
"source_urls": [
"https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-st-futures-drop-oil-100328986.html",
"https://x.com/elerianm/status/2104498901927723271",
"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2104354650048586132",
"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1717393/000110465926111196/tm2626455d1_6k.htm"
]
}
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"source_urls": [
"https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-st-futures-drop-oil-100328986.html",
"https://x.com/elerianm/status/2104498901927723271",
"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2104354650048586132",
"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1717393/000110465926111196/tm2626455d1_6k.htm"
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"headline": "CAAP 6-K filing",
"url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1717393/000110465926111196/tm2626455d1_6k.htm",
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"url": "https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-st-futures-drop-oil-100328986.html",
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"updates": [
{
"day": 15,
"timestamp": "2026-10-19T22:19:13.084000Z",
"date": "Session 15 · Oct 19, 2026 · 18:19 NYSE",
"text": "On the completed 15-session follow-up, CAAP finished 1.35% below the episode's reference price. Along the way, it reached 4.16% above and 6.45% below that reference. A fresh after-market capture showed $24.92, or 1.11% below the reference; that later quote is separate from the final-session result. Argentina's approved airport-concession changes linked passenger growth with investment duties, but the record never quantified whether the revised terms improved cash flow or covered the required investment. The closure data lacked current average-price, momentum, trend and yearly-range readings. This episode's market tracking ends here.",
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{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-10-16T22:04:59.895983Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Oct 16, 2026 · 18:04 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss widened 0.33 percentage points to 0.67% even as the quote rose 1.74% on 1.59 times normal volume. It remains 7.39 points ahead of Industrials over 20 sessions, but closed 0.14% below VWAP; today's bounce repairs price action without quantifying how the approved concession changes investment needs or cash flow.",
"price": 25.09,
"pct": -0.67,
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{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-10-16T20:09:21.108429Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Oct 16, 2026 · 16:09 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss narrowed 0.14 points to 0.34%; the latest capture rose 1.93% but sat 0.14% below the volume-weighted average around mid-range. Its 20-session lead over Industrials widened to 7.75 points. The market case has repaired, while the concession's cash-flow and investment effects remain unquantified.",
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{
"day": 14,
"timestamp": "2026-10-16T14:33:53.671489Z",
"date": "Session 14 · Oct 16, 2026 · 10:33 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss narrowed by 1.90 points to 0.48% below its reference, and the early capture held above VWAP near the session high; its 20-session lead over Industrials has widened to 6.34 points. The repair is thinly traded so far, with only 12,564 shares and an observed 104-basis-point quote spread, while the approved concession's cash and investment effects remain unmeasured. The market case has improved, but the operating thesis remains unresolved.",
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{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-10-15T22:10:34.153548Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Oct 15, 2026 · 18:10 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss widened slightly by 0.04 percentage points to 2.38%, though the latest quote was up 2.49% on near-average volume and the packet still shows positive relative strength versus the broad market. That leaves the tape constructive but the cumulative result mixed; the approved concession changes remain unquantified for cash flow and required investment.",
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{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-10-15T20:16:08.954686Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Oct 15, 2026 · 16:16 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss narrowed 2.77 points to 2.34%; the latest capture rose 3.03%, held 1.32% above VWAP near the range high, and its 20-session lead over Industrials widened to 4.39 points. That is a firmer market read for the airport-concession thesis, though the available evidence still does not quantify the revised terms' financial effect.",
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{
"day": 13,
"timestamp": "2026-10-15T14:44:42.449381Z",
"date": "Session 13 · Oct 15, 2026 · 10:44 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss widened 0.36 percentage points to 5.11%, while the 10:00 ET capture stood 0.59% above its volume-weighted session average near the upper quarter of the range; the 20-session lead over Industrials remains 2.38 points. Those readings support the market case modestly, but the approved concession's investment and cash-flow effects remain unquantified, and the nearly even model read adds no directional evidence.",
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{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-10-14T21:41:45.483450Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Oct 14, 2026 · 17:41 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss widened 0.16 percentage points to 4.75%; shares fell 1.72% at the latest regular-session cut and sat 0.25% below VWAP near the low, then finished flat after hours. Its 20-session lead over Industrials remains positive at 3.20 points, but the approved concession's investment and cash-flow effects are still unquantified, so the relative edge and today's capture do not resolve the operating case.",
"price": 24.06,
"pct": -4.75,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.52,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.52,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.06 · -4.52% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-14T21:00:39Z",
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{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-10-14T20:37:15.955434Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Oct 14, 2026 · 16:37 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss widened 1.98 points to 4.59% as shares fell 1.72% and sat 0.25% below VWAP near the session low. Its 20-session lead over Industrials remains 3.37 points, leaving relative performance supportive; neither the lead nor today's weak capture quantifies how the approved concession changes investment or cash flow.",
"price": 24.06,
"pct": -4.59,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.52,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.52,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.35,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.06 · -4.52% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-14T19:41:13.876792Z",
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{
"day": 12,
"timestamp": "2026-10-14T15:09:17.721430Z",
"date": "Session 12 · Oct 14, 2026 · 11:09 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP tracked loss narrowed 0.48 points to 2.61%, but shares were down 1.45% and 1.51% below VWAP near the session low on very light early turnover. The 20-session lead over Industrials remains 3.34 points. This small return repair does not quantify how the approved concession changes investment or cash flow.",
"price": 24.15,
"pct": -2.61,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.17,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.17,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.31,
"session_day": 12,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.15 · -4.17% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-14T14:06:37.850462Z",
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{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-10-13T21:46:22.188563Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Oct 13, 2026 · 17:46 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss widened 1.59 percentage points to 3.09% as shares fell 1.13%; dollar turnover was 0.59 times its 20-day average, and its 20-session lead over Industrials narrowed to 2.49 points from 4.35. The negative daily move weakens the market response, while the approved concession change still has no quantified investment or cash-flow effect.",
"price": 24.48,
"pct": -3.09,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.86,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.86,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.81,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.48 · -2.86% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-13T20:01:20Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-10-13T20:08:02.502606Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Oct 13, 2026 · 16:08 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP’s tracked loss edged wider by 0.02 points to 1.50%; shares rose 0.71% above VWAP, but turnover remained 0.44 times average. The airport concession change remains a potential operating catalyst, yet its investment and cash-flow effect is still unquantified, and this light-volume bounce adds little confirmation.",
"price": 24.935,
"pct": -1.5,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.05,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.05,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.51,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.93 · -1.05% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-13T19:24:51.998952Z",
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{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-10-13T15:27:41.452483Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Oct 13, 2026 · 11:27 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss narrowed 0.50 percentage points to 1.48% as shares edged up 0.19%, but the early capture remained 0.29% below the day's volume-weighted average price near the lower range on negligible volume. Its 20-session lead over Industrials is 4.35 points. The concession change remains a plausible operating catalyst, though its investment and cash-flow effect has not been quantified.",
"price": 24.8075,
"pct": -1.48,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.56,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.56,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.19,
"session_day": 11,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.81 · -1.56% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-13T14:06:26.349567Z",
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-10-12T22:06:41.565410Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Oct 12, 2026 · 18:06 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss narrowed 0.36 points to 1.98% as shares rose 0.90% and ended near the volume-weighted average price, but volume remained only 0.41 times its three-month norm. The 20-session lead over Industrials is 2.23 points; with no quantified investment or cash-flow effect from the concession changes, this light recovery still leaves the operating case untested.",
"price": 24.76,
"pct": -1.98,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.75,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.75,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.06,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.76 · -1.75% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-12T21:27:29Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-10-12T20:16:36.732041Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Oct 12, 2026 · 16:16 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss narrowed by 0.19 points to 2.30%. Shares rose 0.84% and remained near VWAP in the regular-session capture, but volume was only 0.20 times average and fading. The concession changes still have no quantified investment or cash-flow effect, so the small recovery does not strengthen the operating case.",
"price": 24.745,
"pct": -2.34,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.81,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.81,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.23,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.75 · -1.81% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-12T18:48:37.209746Z",
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},
{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-10-12T19:44:01.639130Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Oct 12, 2026 · 15:44 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss narrowed 0.15 percentage points to 2.34%, and shares are slightly higher at USD 24.69, but volume is only 0.22 times average and price sits 0.21% below its volume-weighted average price. Its 1.94-point 20-session lead over Industrials preserves a modest relative edge; the approved concession terms still have no quantified investment or cash-flow effect, so the small repair does not settle the operating thesis.",
"price": 24.685,
"pct": -2.34,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.04,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.04,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.22,
"session_day": 10,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.68 · -2.04% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-12T19:23:05.083706Z",
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},
{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-10-09T14:49:15.031689Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Oct 9, 2026 · 10:49 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP tracked loss narrowed 0.91 points to 2.49%, and the current quote is 0.94% higher. Trading volume is only 0.01 times average and the single-bar capture has no VWAP reading, so the uptick offers little confirmation. The approved concession changes still have no quantified investment or cash-flow effect in the supplied evidence.",
"price": 24.63,
"pct": -2.49,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.26,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.26,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.91,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.63 · -2.26% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-09T14:06:45.252947Z",
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},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-10-08T21:54:03.524549Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Oct 8, 2026 · 17:54 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss widened 0.25 points to 3.40%; shares fell 1.53% to $24.40 and finished at VWAP on 0.49 times average volume. Its 20-session return trails Industrials by 0.27 points, while the approved concession changes still have no quantified investment or cash-flow effect in the supplied evidence.",
"price": 24.4,
"pct": -3.4,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.17,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.17,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.40 · -3.17% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-08T20:00:06Z",
"vwap_as_of": null
},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:15:47.224094Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Oct 8, 2026 · 16:15 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss widened another 1.15 points from -1.90%. Shares fell 1.53% to $24.40 on 0.33 times average volume and closed at VWAP, leaving the 20-session Industrials comparison near even at -0.20 points. The weaker tape adds pressure while the approved concession changes still lack quantified investment and cash-flow effects.",
"price": 24.4,
"pct": -3.15,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.17,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.17,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.4,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.40 · -3.17% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-08T19:22:13.087729Z",
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},
{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:02:09.814854Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Oct 8, 2026 · 11:02 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP tracked loss edged 0.10 points wider to -2.00%; shares slipped 0.10% on 0.03 times average volume, with no fresh VWAP read. The stock remains 1.17 points ahead of Industrials over twenty sessions, but its sector has lagged the market and the concession changes still lack a quantified cash-flow effect.",
"price": 24.755,
"pct": -2.0,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.77,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.77,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.1,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.75 · -1.77% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-08T14:06:42.195821Z",
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{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-10-07T21:51:44.116923Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Oct 7, 2026 · 17:51 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP session-7 tracked return fell 0.79 points to -1.90% after shares lost 1.74% on roughly average volume; the 20-session lead over Industrials narrowed to 3.61 points from 4.69 in the earlier note, and it lagged SPY by 1.5 points today. This weakens the market confirmation, but the approved concession change still has no quantified investment or cash-flow effect, leaving the operating thesis unresolved.",
"price": 24.78,
"pct": -1.9,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.67,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.67,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.72,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.78 · -1.67% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-7b4933f0b7bdd04d5a2a4854d667abd5167f2c3fb9891ca761ac2819b9478855",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-07T20:00:22Z",
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},
{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-10-07T20:36:24.698244Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Oct 7, 2026 · 16:36 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss narrowed 0.10 points to -1.11%, while the $24.96 capture fell 1.03% but held above VWAP near the range midpoint on 0.85 times average volume. Its 4.69-point twenty-session lead over Industrials remains, yet the approved concession changes still have no quantified effect on investment or cash flow. Today's price does not settle that business question.",
"price": 24.96,
"pct": -1.11,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.95,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.95,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.55,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.96 · -0.95% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-07T19:21:41.146640Z",
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{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-10-07T15:08:55.715612Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Oct 7, 2026 · 11:08 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked return fell 1.65 points to -1.21%, although the $25.10 capture was 0.29% above the session average after a 0.48% decline. The 20-session lead over Industrials remains 4.69 points, but participation is very light. The approved concession changes still lack a quantified effect on investment or cash flow, so the current price does not resolve the event's business impact.",
"price": 25.1,
"pct": -1.21,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -0.4,
"return_vs_base_pct": -0.4,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.25,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$25.10 · -0.40% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-07T14:06:33.450164Z",
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{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-10-06T20:03:33.961950Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Oct 6, 2026 · 16:03 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked gain narrowed 0.65 points to +0.44%. The $25.42 capture fell 0.49%, sat 0.29% below VWAP and closed near the bottom of its range on light volume, even as the 20-session lead over Industrials persisted. The approved airport-concession changes remain the catalyst, but their financial and cash-flow effects are still unquantified.",
"price": 25.415,
"pct": 0.44,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 0.85,
"return_vs_base_pct": 0.85,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.67,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$25.41 · +0.85% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-06T19:21:35.651397Z",
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{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-10-06T15:47:33.108216Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Oct 6, 2026 · 11:47 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP tracked gain was nearly unchanged, slipping 0.02 points to 1.09% as the capture rose 1.16%; its 20-session lead over Industrials widened to 8.26 points. Approved concession changes still connect investment needs with passenger growth, but their cash-flow effect remains unquantified, so the stronger price response has not confirmed the operating benefit.",
"price": 25.835,
"pct": 1.09,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.52,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.52,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.17,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$25.84 · +2.52% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-06T14:06:59.842254Z",
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{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:32:39.145803Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Oct 5, 2026 · 18:32 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked gain narrowed from 1.60% to 1.11% even as the $25.54 capture rose 5.10% and stayed above VWAP; regular-session volume was only 0.57 times expected. A 7.58-point 20-session lead over Industrials keeps relative performance supportive, but the airport concession's cash-flow and investment effects remain unquantified.",
"price": 25.54,
"pct": 1.11,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 1.35,
"return_vs_base_pct": 1.35,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.87,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$25.54 · +1.35% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-05T20:00:35Z",
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{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-10-05T19:57:14.584669Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Oct 5, 2026 · 15:57 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP tracked return recovered 2.65 points to +1.60% as the latest $25.76 capture rose 6.01%, held 1.60% above the volume-weighted session average, and finished near the top of the range; volume was only 0.57 times expected for that time of day. The price response has improved, and CAAP now leads Industrials by 8.16 points over 20 sessions, but that does not measure the concession economics. The SEC-confirmed change still has no quantified cash-flow effect, while the model remains near even with a wide range.",
"price": 25.76,
"pct": 1.6,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.22,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.22,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.33,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$25.76 · +2.22% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-5db87a753a82eb0cf7c4edb7fa2bfd941eaa03b92a1f7a5062241c6e92253e38",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-05T19:21:38.104627Z",
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{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-10-05T15:27:53.992013Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Oct 5, 2026 · 11:27 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss narrowed 2.79 points to 1.05% as the $24.92 capture rose 2.55%, though it remained 0.12% below VWAP and time-adjusted volume was 0.21. Its 5.41-point twenty-session sector lead offers support; the approved concession change still has no quantified cash-flow effect.",
"price": 24.92,
"pct": -1.05,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.11,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.11,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.46,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$24.92 · -1.11% from $25.20 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-10-03T11:27:21.237627Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Oct 3, 2026 · 07:27 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked loss stayed at 3.84%; the latest $24.30 capture remained below VWAP, while its 20-session lead over Industrials narrowed to 3.01 points from 3.23. The concession change remains approved, but the price has not reversed the tracking loss and the revised passenger and investment terms still have no quantified cash-flow effect.",
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"pct": -3.84,
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{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-10-02T20:30:07.040135Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Oct 2, 2026 · 16:30 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked return fell 4.55 percentage points to -3.84% by session 4, turning negative despite the approved concession change. The latest capture was $24.38, 0.33% below VWAP on 0.83 times average volume, while its 20-session lead over Industrials narrowed to 3.23 points; the model remained near even. The SEC-confirmed approval is clear, but the revised investment and passenger terms still have no quantified cash-flow effect.",
"price": 24.38,
"pct": -3.84,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.25,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.25,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -4.2,
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{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-09-30T22:02:24.362833Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Sep 30, 2026 · 18:02 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP tracked gain edged up 0.16 points to 0.71%, while shares fell 2.15% on the day to $25.44, 1.78% below VWAP at the session low on 2.43 times average volume. Its 20-session lead over Industrials remains 13.51 points, but that relative cushion does not answer whether the revised airport concession can support its investment economics.",
"price": 25.44,
"pct": 0.71,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 0.95,
"return_vs_base_pct": 0.95,
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"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.24,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$25.44 · +0.95% from $25.20 base",
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"price_as_of": "2026-09-30T20:46:24Z",
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{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-09-30T21:02:09.476365Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Sep 30, 2026 · 17:02 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP’s tracked gain fell 3.61 percentage points to 0.55% as shares dropped to $25.50, 1.54% below session volume-weighted average price and at the bottom of the range; volume had reached 1.23 times average. The morning’s near-high response did not hold, but the 20-session lead over Industrials remains 13.44 points and the tracked return is still positive; the pullback raises persistence risk without settling whether the revised concession improves cash flow or investment economics.",
"price": 25.5,
"pct": 0.55,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 1.19,
"return_vs_base_pct": 1.19,
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"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.18,
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"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$25.50 · +1.19% from $25.20 base",
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"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-09-30T15:23:46.617818Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Sep 30, 2026 · 11:23 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked gain increased 1.23 percentage points to 4.16%. The 10 a.m. capture at 26.30 USD was 1.08% higher, 0.69% above VWAP and near the top of the range, though volume was 31% of its usual pace so far and no structure is confirmed. Its 20-session lead over Industrials widened to 16.47 points, with accumulation positive. The market response remains strong, but the revised concession's investment and cash-flow effects are still unquantified.",
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"pct": 4.16,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 4.37,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.2,
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"timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:53:28.402273Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Sep 29, 2026 · 17:53 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked gain edged up 0.02 points to +2.93% as shares slipped 0.19% to $26.00 but remained 0.50% above VWAP. Dollar volume was 3.37 times its 20-day average and its 14.21-point lead over Industrials persists, yet no price structure is confirmed and the revised concession's cash-flow effect is still unquantified.",
"price": 26.0,
"pct": 2.93,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 3.17,
"return_vs_base_pct": 3.17,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.09,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$26.00 · +3.17% from $25.20 base",
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"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:57:10.050177Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Sep 29, 2026 · 15:57 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's tracked gain eased 0.22 percentage points to +2.91% as shares slipped 0.29% to $25.98 but remained 0.41% above the session VWAP. The 20-session return still leads Industrials by 14.17 points, with accumulation and dollar volume at 2.58 times its 20-day average supporting the reaction. Price is 2.1 average daily ranges above its reference with no confirmed structure, while the approved concession changes still lack a quantified cash-flow effect.",
"price": 25.975,
"pct": 2.91,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 3.08,
"return_vs_base_pct": 3.08,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.29,
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"reference_price": 25.2,
"reference_text": "$25.98 · +3.08% from $25.20 base",
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"day": 0,
"timestamp": "2026-09-28T22:02:24.229523Z",
"date": "Session 0 · Sep 28, 2026 · 18:02 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP remains up 3.13% in its first tracking session, 0.14 points below the prior note, while shares rose 9.09% to $26.05 and closed 1.68% above the session volume-weighted average price on 5.62 times normal dollar volume. It outperforms Industrials by 12.81 points over 20 sessions, but price is 2.44 average daily ranges above its 21-day average with no confirmed structure, and the concession changes cash-flow effect remains unquantified.",
"price": 26.05,
"pct": 3.13,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 3.37,
"return_vs_base_pct": 3.37,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.4,
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"day": 0,
"timestamp": "2026-09-28T20:19:24.253417Z",
"date": "Session 0 · Sep 28, 2026 · 16:19 NYSE",
"text": "CAAP's first tracked session posted +3.27% after shares jumped 9.51% to $26.15, closing 2.06% above the session's volume-weighted average price on 4.4 times average volume. The SEC filing reports approval of concession changes tied to passenger growth and investment duties, but the move is already 2.56 average daily ranges above its reference and the cash-flow effect remains unquantified; the model has no estimate at session zero.",
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"source": "Sealed candidate catalyst, quote_snapshot and trajectory"
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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