PROF episode 20261008_PROF_MIDDAY
Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.
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"published_at": "2026-10-08T18:12:55.372773Z",
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"exchange": "NASDAQCM",
"name": "Profound Medical Corp."
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"date": "October 8, 2026",
"generated_at": "2026-10-08T18:12:55.372773Z",
"original_published_at": null,
"session_tag": "midday",
"label": "Market coverage",
"try_label": "Raw Try",
"public_status": "Raw Try",
"why_today": "Profound Medical remains a useful research case because a company-filed preliminary Q3 revenue range can be checked against final results. Its strong recent healthcare-relative performance supports the question, but does not establish a durable 15-session path. The active model has eight comparable cases and shows a 42.0% S15 positive-return estimate alongside a -15.02% median adverse excursion and a -33.24% P10 adverse excursion. Medtronic’s bounded horizon estimates are more favorable, though its exchange-ratio economics remain unresolved. The comparison does not support presenting Profound as Try of the Day.",
"entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: If final Q3 revenue confirms the preliminary $9.8–10.0 million range and subsequent observations preserve relative strength, the update may support further research into Profound Medical’s operating path. The preliminary revenue result does not establish durable profitability or future price performance. Invalidation boundary: Final Q3 revenue materially below the preliminary $9.8 million floor, or continued loss of healthcare-relative strength without evidence of improved cash generation, would materially weaken the thesis.",
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"catalyst": "Thursday's pre-market session: top gainers and losers",
"sector": "Healthcare",
"exchange": "NasdaqCM",
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"review": {
"score": 7,
"status": "Raw Try",
"summary": "Profound Medical remains a useful research case because a company-filed preliminary Q3 revenue range can be checked against final results. Its strong recent healthcare-relative performance supports the question, but does not establish a durable 15-session path. The active model has eight comparable cases and shows a 42.0% S15 positive-return estimate alongside a -15.02% median adverse excursion and a -33.24% P10 adverse excursion. Medtronic’s bounded horizon estimates are more favorable, though its exchange-ratio economics remain unresolved. The comparison does not support presenting Profound as Try of the Day.",
"views": [
{
"name": "Elena Vartanyan",
"role": "independent statistical auditor",
"icon": "🎯",
"view": "The broad tape is leaning cautious: the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 were lower at the sealed snapshot. VIX, the market's volatility gauge, rose 1.92% to 15.37; the 10-year yield eased 1.20 basis points to 5.265%. That is pressure across benchmarks, not an explanation for any one company.",
"reasoning": "Agreed. The evidence does not justify saying Profound’s stronger relative record outweighs its unresolved profitability, persistence, and downside risks. Its filed update still gives us a useful next check, so the candidate stays selected as Raw Try."
},
{
"name": "Kenji Osei",
"role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
"icon": "🧠",
"view": "The separate breadth proxy leaned negative within its covered sample, but there is no end-of-day breadth reading. We can describe that sample; we cannot call it a full-market closing count.",
"reasoning": "I also support Raw Try. The model comparisons are bounded context, not certainty, but they expose a countercase the initial decision did not resolve. Four of us support the correction; Marcus dissents and would retain Try of the Day."
},
{
"name": "Marcus Feld",
"role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
"icon": "🦊",
"view": "The supplied news cut also reports inflation risk in the Fed minutes, repeated payroll revisions, and mixed jobless claims. Gold and oil were higher. Useful backdrop, but none of those items is a company catalyst for the names in this docket.",
"reasoning": "Profound’s 20-session performance exceeded XLV by 9.14 percentage points, and the company filed a preliminary Q3 revenue range. That gives us a concrete check. MDT’s relative record was weaker by 4.49 percentage points versus XLV, and we still do not know the exchange-ratio economics. I think Profound’s company update can still support Try of the Day."
},
{
"name": "Nate Brooks",
"role": "market structure and timing analyst",
"icon": "📈",
"view": "The linked record is up 15.56% on 17.23 times its three-month average volume. It is above VWAP—the session's volume-weighted average price—so it is trading above the average price paid across the day's volume. That supports the response, not a 15-session forecast.",
"reasoning": "I support Raw Try. A strong day and a company update are facts worth following; neither proves a durable path across fifteen trading sessions."
},
{
"name": "Priya Nandakumar",
"role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
"icon": "🛡️",
"view": "I would call it Raw Try. The model's S15 positive-return estimate is 42.0% with eight comparable cases. Its modeled largest adverse move has a 15.0% median and a 33.2% lower-tail estimate from entry. Those figures are not certainties, but they make the path risk hard to wave away.",
"reasoning": "The relative record is backward-looking. It does not resolve whether the preliminary revenue becomes profitable revenue, and the prepared financial snapshot predates that update. The active downside and the Medtronic comparison are central, not minor caveats. I support keeping Profound as a research case but downgrading it to Raw Try."
}
],
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"status_phrase": "recorded",
"basis": "Editorial confidence in retaining Profound Medical as a Raw Try is moderate: the primary revenue update provides a concrete research check, while the active downside evidence and MDT countercase prevent confidence in Try of the Day. These percentages describe the committee’s decision confidence, not market probabilities.",
"risk": "",
"resolution_pct": 68.0,
"counter_case_pct": 22.0,
"unresolved_pct": 10.0
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"summary": "Equities were under pressure as oil and bond-market swings kept inflation risk in view. Labor signals split between low layoffs and weak hiring, while the Fed’s tone remained cautious. A later market snapshot showed yields easing after earlier volatility; small-business AI survey findings describe expectations, not realized growth.",
"long_read": "The day’s crosscurrents resisted a one-word label. The supplied 16:54 UTC snapshot showed the major U.S. benchmarks lower, VIX higher and the dollar nearly unchanged; the 10-year yield was down 1.20 basis points at that capture. Earlier, the [Associated Press reported stocks pulling back from their record as Brent rose above $104 amid Iran-related supply uncertainty](https://apnews.com/article/6a096d714c874db13632794a32cebaa6). The [Reuters bond report](https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-bonds-fall-lifting-yields-for-2nd-day-as-oil-weighs-30year-auction-looms-4939491) captured a late-morning rise in yields and investors watching a 30-year Treasury sale. By the later AP report and the supplied snapshot, the 10-year yield had eased from its early-session high. Those time stamps matter: a bond yield is the market’s borrowing rate, and its direction can change within the session.\n\nThe labor picture was just as mixed. [Reuters reported initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 197,000](https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-as-layoffs-remain-low-4939045), a measure commonly used as a proxy for layoffs. Yet September payroll growth was only 29,000, and the [Associated Press noted longer unemployment spells](https://apnews.com/article/7d52b48a5f41e60630d96c7a1711774c). Low layoffs and slow hiring can coexist; neither measure alone describes the whole labor market. Against that backdrop, the [Fed meeting minutes reported that most officials thought another rate increase might be needed this year to address persistent inflation](https://apnews.com/article/b7ed20e31e1a6fa5da6d78e5fe35b0c3). That is policy risk, not a scheduled outcome.\n\nEnergy supplied an immediate link between geopolitics and inflation concerns, while the sealed context also carried a Reuters Business report on France’s planned approach to new debt issues and a report of continued central-bank gold purchases. These are separate signals about funding and reserve choices; they do not prove what drove any single market move. The [New York Fed’s small-business survey](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/ai-adoption-and-employment-expectations-evidence-from-a-survey-of-small-business-owners/) adds a different tension: firms already using AI were more likely to expect higher employment and revenue over the next year. Those are survey expectations, not realized results or proof that AI caused stronger growth.\n\nThe supplied intraday breadth proxy leaned negative across its defined 300-name universe, but it was not an end-of-day, full-market breadth measure. It supports a limited reading of broad pressure, not a claim that every sector or stock moved together. Profound Medical’s technology and preliminary sales update can be discussed within that environment, but neither the small-business AI survey nor the day’s market tape establishes company-specific demand. The wider picture remains mixed: energy-driven inflation concerns and rate volatility alongside subdued hiring, low reported layoffs and uncertain follow-through.",
"transcript": [
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "That was a split-screen day. The supplied snapshot had the main indexes lower and volatility higher; the AP report had oil climbing while stocks backed away from records. The tape had pressure, but not one tidy story."
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "Labor gives us the same kind of split. Initial claims—new applications for unemployment benefits, a rough proxy for layoffs—fell to 197,000. September payrolls added only 29,000 jobs. Fewer people being laid off does not mean employers are hiring briskly."
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "So those numbers can both be true? One counts people newly losing work; the other measures the net change in jobs?"
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "Exactly. Low layoffs, sluggish hiring. And the AP report says people who are out of work are taking longer to find another job. The calm claims figure does not erase that strain."
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "Oil is the bridge to the policy argument. The AP tied Brent’s jump above $104 to uncertainty around Iran and shipping. That can put inflation back in the room even when the day’s equity move looks modest."
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "And the Fed minutes say most officials thought another hike might be needed this year. “Might” matters. The minutes describe their concern; they do not promise the next move."
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "The bond story moved too. A Treasury yield is the rate investors demand to lend to the government; higher yields can raise borrowing costs and weigh on asset values. Reuters caught the 10-year yield higher late morning as the oil shock fed inflation concerns."
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "But the shared snapshot later says the 10-year was lower on the day. Is that a conflict, or are we mixing captures?"
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "Different times. Reuters reported 5.305% late morning, up 2.8 basis points then. AP later said the yield had eased to 5.26%, and the supplied 16:54 UTC snapshot recorded 5.265%, down 1.20 basis points on the day. A level is where it stood; the change is how far it moved from its comparison point."
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "Investors were also waiting for a 30-year Treasury auction, a sale of long-dated government debt that gives a fresh read on demand. The Reuters report treated it as a test of appetite, not a verdict on public finances. France’s debt minister was also talking about being strategic on new issuance.",
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"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "And central banks added 39 tonnes of gold in August, according to the supplied context. That was a fifth consecutive month of net buying. A reserve trend can be interesting without explaining today’s gold quote.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2107916705603195373"
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},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "The New York Fed survey adds a useful counterpoint to the layoff story: small businesses already using AI were more likely to expect both employment and revenue growth over the next year. Expectations are not outcomes, and the survey does not show AI caused them."
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "Right, and that survey is about small businesses generally. It cannot tell us whether a particular medical-device company is selling more systems. Good wider context; wrong shortcut to issuer demand."
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "For Profound, the company filing says commercialization depends in part on compatible MRI scanners and adequate payer reimbursement—whether insurers or public programs cover the treatment. Those are adoption conditions; the rate moves do not tell us whether they improved."
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "That’s the limit I want to leave visible: oil and bond yields raised the policy question, but the labor data were not uniformly weak and the later yield reading eased. The session carried competing pressures, not a clean macro verdict."
}
],
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"headline": "Central banks added 39 tonnes of gold in August, the fifth consecutive month of net purchases",
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"updates": [
{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-10-23T22:02:37.976570Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Oct 23, 2026 · 18:02 NASDAQCM",
"text": "The tracked loss widened 0.61 points to 15.29% on session 11 as the latest capture fell 3.47% to $5.56 below VWAP. Its 20-session lag to Healthcare widened to 8.50 points, weakening the price test against the preliminary $9.8–10.0 million Q3 revenue range; the package still contains no final result to confirm that range.",
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"pct": -15.29,
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{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-10-23T20:15:13.398343Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Oct 23, 2026 · 16:15 NASDAQCM",
"text": "The tracked PROF loss widened 1.06 points to 14.68% on session 11. Shares fell 2.43% to $5.62 below VWAP on half usual volume, and the 20-session lag to Healthcare is 7.32 points. That weakens the price test against the preliminary $9.8–10.0 million revenue range; this handoff contains no final Q3 result to confirm it.",
"price": 5.62,
"pct": -14.68,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -14.33,
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{
"day": 11,
"timestamp": "2026-10-23T14:56:22.564379Z",
"date": "Session 11 · Oct 23, 2026 · 10:56 NASDAQCM",
"text": "The tracked loss widened 1.37 points to 13.62% on session 11 as the quote slipped 0.52% to $5.73, remaining above the session average on light activity. Its 20-session lag against Healthcare deepened to 5.83 points; the preliminary Q3 revenue range still awaits final results, so this price support does not confirm stronger profitability or cash generation.",
"price": 5.73,
"pct": -13.62,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-23T14:06:04.621810Z",
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{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-10-22T22:04:30.532883Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Oct 22, 2026 · 18:04 NASDAQCM",
"text": "The tracked loss widened 0.61 points to 12.25% on session 10, although shares rose 1.23% to $5.76 above VWAP on 1.79 times average volume. The 20-session Healthcare lag remains 3.87 points, and the preliminary Q3 revenue range still awaits final results; this price repair does not establish durable profitability or stronger cash generation.",
"price": 5.76,
"pct": -12.25,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -12.2,
"return_vs_base_pct": -12.2,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.31,
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"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$5.76 · -12.20% from $6.56 base",
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"market_marker": {
"phase": "pre",
"text": "Premarket update: $5.65 (-0.70% vs regular close) · Oct 22, 2026 · 07:00 NASDAQCM"
},
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"phase": "pre",
"price": 5.65,
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{
"day": 10,
"timestamp": "2026-10-22T20:06:02.014180Z",
"date": "Session 10 · Oct 22, 2026 · 16:06 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF narrowed its tracked loss by 1.67 points to 11.64% on session 10; shares rose 1.58% to $5.78 above VWAP on 1.55 times average volume. The 20-session Healthcare lag narrowed to 3.57 points but remains negative. The preliminary Q3 revenue range of $9.8–10.0 million still awaits final results, so today's price repair does not establish durable profitability or improved cash generation.",
"price": 5.78,
"pct": -11.64,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -11.89,
"return_vs_base_pct": -11.89,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.37,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-22T19:21:50.306215Z",
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{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-10-21T21:14:52.665874Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Oct 21, 2026 · 17:14 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked loss widened 3.50 percentage points to -13.31% on session 9; the latest regular-session read was down 3.89%, below VWAP near the range low, on 0.69 of its usual volume for that time. Its 20-session return now trails Healthcare by 6.79 points, though the longer-term flow measure remains positive. The model leaves both paths open and final Q3 results remain absent, so the price case has weakened but the operating test is still unresolved.",
"price": 5.69,
"pct": -13.31,
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"phase": "post",
"text": "Aftermarket update: $6.00 (+1.35% vs regular close) · Oct 20, 2026 · 18:29 NASDAQCM"
},
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{
"day": 9,
"timestamp": "2026-10-21T00:36:08.801545Z",
"date": "Session 9 · Oct 20, 2026 · 20:36 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked loss remained 9.81% on session 9 while shares rose 1.02% to $5.92 on just 0.26 time-adjusted activity and stayed 0.91% below VWAP. The latest 20-session comparison trails Healthcare by 7.86 points, so the uptick is still tentative repair; the preliminary Q3 revenue range needs final confirmation and does not establish stronger cash generation.",
"price": 5.92,
"pct": -9.81,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.76,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.3,
"session_day": 9,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$5.92 · -9.76% from $6.56 base",
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{
"day": 8,
"timestamp": "2026-10-20T23:09:42.396324Z",
"date": "Session 8 · Oct 20, 2026 · 19:09 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF tracked loss narrowed 0.91 points to 9.81%, although the quote rose 0.68% to $5.90 on only 0.21 times average volume and remained 0.91% below VWAP. This is tentative price repair, not evidence that the preliminary third-quarter revenue range has translated into stronger operations; the handoff has no current asset-relative return for a refreshed Healthcare comparison.",
"price": 5.9,
"pct": -9.81,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.06,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.06,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.61,
"session_day": 8,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$5.90 · -10.06% from $6.56 base",
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"relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-20T19:32:17.054310Z",
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{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-10-19T22:19:30.289935Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Oct 19, 2026 · 18:19 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked loss deepened 0.76 percentage points to 10.72% as shares fell 2.50%, sat 0.71% below VWAP near the session low, and traded on 0.65 times normal volume. Its 20-session deficit to Healthcare is 7.86 points; weak price follow-through persists, and the preliminary Q3 revenue range still awaits final results.",
"price": 5.86,
"pct": -10.72,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.67,
"return_vs_base_pct": -10.67,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.69,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$5.86 · -10.67% from $6.56 base",
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"relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-19T20:27:09Z",
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{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-10-19T20:01:43.761606Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Oct 19, 2026 · 16:01 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked loss deepened 1.52 points to 9.96% as the quote fell 1.75%, sat 0.76% below VWAP near the range low, and traded at 0.37 times its three-month average volume. It now trails Healthcare by 7.37 points over 20 sessions; the preliminary Q3 revenue range still awaits final results, and the market weakness adds to the need for cash-generation evidence.",
"price": 5.905,
"pct": -9.96,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -9.98,
"return_vs_base_pct": -9.98,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.6,
"session_day": 7,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$5.91 · -9.98% from $6.56 base",
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"relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-19T19:21:30.182691Z",
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{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-10-16T21:49:28.831537Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Oct 16, 2026 · 17:49 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked loss widened 0.61 percentage points to 8.44% since the prior public note, while the current twenty-session comparison shows it trailing Healthcare by 2.38 points. The latest session fell 4.75%, finished below its average trading price near the range low, and traded on below-normal activity; the current path estimate remains nearly even and wide, so it does not confirm either a continued decline or a recovery. The preliminary Q3 revenue range still lacks a final result or cash-generation support, leaving the market condition weaker and the company test unresolved.",
"price": 6.01,
"pct": -8.44,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -8.38,
"return_vs_base_pct": -8.38,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.61,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$6.01 · -8.38% from $6.56 base",
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"relevant": true,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-16T20:46:58Z",
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{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-10-16T20:10:48.112374Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Oct 16, 2026 · 16:10 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF tracked loss widened 2.51 points to 7.83%; the latest quote fell 4.12%, sat 1.56% below the volume-weighted average near the range low, and traded at 0.44x normal volume. Its 20-session return now trails Healthcare by 1.56 points, while preliminary Q3 revenue still lacks a final result or cash-generation confirmation.",
"price": 6.05,
"pct": -7.83,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -7.77,
"return_vs_base_pct": -7.77,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.65,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$6.05 · -7.77% from $6.56 base",
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"relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-16T19:21:22.647785Z",
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{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-10-16T14:36:12.107107Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Oct 16, 2026 · 10:36 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked loss widened 1.45 points to 5.32% as the early quote sat at VWAP after another 0.32% decline; its 20-session lead over Healthcare narrowed to 1.71 points but remains positive. The capture carried only 0.23 of the usual volume, so it adds little evidence of a turn. The preliminary Q3 revenue range still has no final result or cash-generation support, leaving a weaker market case and an unresolved operating test.",
"price": 6.29,
"pct": -5.32,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_base_pct": -4.12,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.31,
"session_day": 6,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$6.29 · -4.12% from $6.56 base",
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"relevant": true,
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{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-10-15T22:11:50.609426Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Oct 15, 2026 · 18:11 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked loss widened 1.69 percentage points to 3.87%, and the later quote was down 4.68% on 0.93 times average volume. That extends the weakness in the prior note, while the preliminary Q3 revenue range still awaits final results and evidence of cash generation. The limited model sample does not settle the path, so the revenue range remains a checkable lead rather than operating confirmation.",
"price": 6.31,
"pct": -3.87,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -3.81,
"return_vs_base_pct": -3.81,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.75,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$6.31 · -3.81% from $6.56 base",
"timing": "",
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"relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-15T20:27:14Z",
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},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-10-15T19:47:45.131690Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Oct 15, 2026 · 15:47 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked gain fell 3.95 points into a 2.18% loss as the late-day capture declined 2.95%, traded 1.31% below its volume-weighted average near the lower quarter, and moved at a below-normal pace. Its 20-session lead over Healthcare narrowed to 3.58 points but remains positive; the preliminary Q3 range still has no final result or cash-generation evidence, and the broad model range leaves follow-through unresolved.",
"price": 6.425,
"pct": -2.18,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -2.06,
"return_vs_base_pct": -2.06,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.51,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$6.42 · -2.06% from $6.56 base",
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"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": true,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-07c161f967152d640b0ca2a3d350dc10dbe0184dc634fcd2156999cd1a125828",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-15T19:21:33.629030Z",
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},
{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-10-15T15:34:34.586383Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Oct 15, 2026 · 11:34 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked gain improved 0.92 points to 1.77%; shares rose 0.53% and held 0.19% above VWAP, but trading ran at only 4% of average dollar turnover. Its 20-session lead over Healthcare has narrowed to 7.42 points, while the preliminary Q3 revenue range of $9.8–$10.0 million still has no final result or cash-generation evidence.",
"price": 6.655,
"pct": 1.77,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 1.45,
"return_vs_base_pct": 1.45,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.54,
"session_day": 5,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$6.66 · +1.45% from $6.56 base",
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-15T14:06:44.673876Z",
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{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-10-14T21:46:04.130384Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Oct 14, 2026 · 17:46 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF tracked gain narrowed 0.31 points to 0.85%; shares fell 5.56% in the regular session, finished 2.50% below VWAP in the lower fifth of the range, and were flat after hours. The 20-session lead over Healthcare remains 9.86 points, down from 10.39. The preliminary Q3 revenue range of $9.8–$10.0 million still lacks a final result and cash-generation evidence.",
"price": 6.62,
"pct": 0.85,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 0.91,
"return_vs_base_pct": 0.91,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.23,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$6.62 · +0.91% from $6.56 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-14T20:27:18Z",
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{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-10-14T20:09:16.776537Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Oct 14, 2026 · 16:09 NASDAQCM",
"text": "Since the prior note, PROF's tracked gain slipped 5.74 points to 1.16%; the latest capture was down 5.35%, 2.28% below VWAP in the lower fifth of the range. Its 20-session lead over Healthcare remains 10.39 points, down from 18.66, but the packet still has no final result for the preliminary $9.8–$10.0 million Q3 revenue range or cash generation. The lead has narrowed; the operating test remains open.",
"price": 6.635,
"pct": 1.16,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 1.14,
"return_vs_base_pct": 1.14,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -6.86,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$6.63 · +1.14% from $6.56 base",
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"relevant": true,
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"transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-c319a62b4a3ae1a30972d3fc7895911bc05a09c39a315727d4cc3b75df958532",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-14T19:41:13.876792Z",
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{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-10-14T15:09:54.312271Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Oct 14, 2026 · 11:09 NASDAQCM",
"text": "For PROF, the tracked gain edged up 0.10 points to 6.90% as shares rose 1.07% above VWAP near the upper range, though dollar turnover was only 0.14 times its 20-day average. The Healthcare lead remains 18.66 points, but a thin early rebound does not convert the preliminary Q3 revenue range into final revenue or cash results.",
"price": 7.085,
"pct": 6.9,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 8.0,
"return_vs_base_pct": 8.0,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.14,
"session_day": 4,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$7.08 · +8.00% from $6.56 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-14T14:06:37.850462Z",
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},
{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-10-13T21:51:10.713758Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Oct 13, 2026 · 17:51 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked gain rose 0.31 percentage points to 6.80% despite a 3.31% share decline near the lower third on dollar turnover 1.31 times average; its 20-session lead over Healthcare is 22.23 points. The weaker tape leaves the preliminary Q3 revenue range and cash generation awaiting final results.",
"price": 7.01,
"pct": 6.8,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 6.86,
"return_vs_base_pct": 6.86,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.91,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$7.01 · +6.86% from $6.56 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"price_as_of": "2026-10-13T20:00:12Z",
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{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-10-13T20:08:17.620412Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Oct 13, 2026 · 16:08 NASDAQCM",
"text": "Profound’s tracked gain increased 0.61 points to 6.49%, although shares fell 4.14%, traded below VWAP and at 1.73 times average volume near the lower range. Its 21.35-point 20-session Healthcare lead still coexists with a weaker current tape; the preliminary Q3 revenue range and cash generation await confirmation from final results.",
"price": 6.95,
"pct": 6.49,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 5.95,
"return_vs_base_pct": 5.95,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$6.95 · +5.95% from $6.56 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-13T19:24:51.998952Z",
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{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-10-13T15:04:31.717001Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Oct 13, 2026 · 11:04 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked gain fell 4.57 percentage points to +5.88% after the 10:00 a.m. ET snapshot showed a 4.14% decline, below the day's volume-weighted average price and near the lower end of its range. The 20-session Healthcare lead remains 21.06 points, but that record does not confirm the preliminary $9.8-$10.0 million Q3 revenue range or cash generation; the operating thesis remains unresolved.",
"price": 6.95,
"pct": 5.88,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 5.95,
"return_vs_base_pct": 5.95,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -4.57,
"session_day": 3,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$6.95 · +5.95% from $6.56 base",
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"relevant": true,
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{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-10-12T22:08:16.199079Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Oct 12, 2026 · 18:08 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked gain eased 0.38 points to 10.45%, even as shares rose 5.07% on 1.72 times average volume and closed near the session high, well above the volume-weighted average price. It still leads Healthcare by 22.25 points over 20 sessions, but the sharp rebound does not confirm final Q3 revenue or cash generation, leaving the preliminary outlook unverified.",
"price": 7.25,
"pct": 10.45,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 10.52,
"return_vs_base_pct": 10.52,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.91,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$7.25 · +10.52% from $6.56 base",
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-12T20:00:27Z",
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{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-10-12T19:46:38.709935Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Oct 12, 2026 · 15:46 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked gain rose 0.83 percentage points to 10.83%; shares are up 5.94% and 3.39% above their volume-weighted average price near the session high, with volume at 1.32 times average. Its 23.53-point 20-session lead over Healthcare has grown, but price is now well above its 21-day average and the preliminary Q3 revenue range still lacks final confirmation or cash-generation evidence, so the sharp move does not establish durable operating improvement.",
"price": 7.31,
"pct": 10.83,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 11.43,
"return_vs_base_pct": 11.43,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.83,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$7.31 · +11.43% from $6.56 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-12T19:23:05.083706Z",
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{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-10-12T19:16:58.615075Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Oct 12, 2026 · 15:16 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked gain rose 4.73 percentage points to 10.00% as shares advanced 4.20% to $7.19, 2.50% above VWAP; its 20-session lead over Healthcare expanded to 21.52 points. Volume was near average, and the capture held in the upper range, giving a stronger price signal than the prior below-VWAP session. The filed preliminary $9.8–$10.0 million Q3 revenue range still has no final result or cash-generation confirmation in this package. The model's 40.2% same-up probability and -0.68% median, based on eight comparison cases within a wide -12.77% to +16.92% band, temper confidence in price follow-through despite the improved tape.",
"price": 7.19,
"pct": 10.0,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 9.6,
"return_vs_base_pct": 9.6,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.96,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$7.19 · +9.60% from $6.56 base",
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"relevant": true,
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{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-10-09T19:42:07.687115Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Oct 9, 2026 · 15:42 NASDAQCM",
"text": "PROF's tracked gain remains +5.27% after a 0.29% rise today, but price sat 0.29% below VWAP in the lower quarter of the range despite volume at 2.1 times average. It still leads Healthcare by 12.74 points over twenty sessions; the preliminary Q3 revenue range has no final result in this packet, and the current model's near-flat median sits inside a broad -12.7% to +18.4% range, leaving follow-through and downside open.",
"price": 6.93,
"pct": 5.27,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 5.64,
"return_vs_base_pct": 5.64,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 5.64,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 6.56,
"reference_text": "$6.93 · +5.64% from $6.56 base",
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],
"observed_outcomes": [
{
"label": "+1 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": 5.12,
"reference_text": "+5.12% from $6.56 base",
"price": 6.9,
"updated": "Oct 12, 2026 · 03:30 NASDAQCM",
"mfe": 10.45,
"mae": 3.6
},
{
"label": "+5 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": -3.87,
"reference_text": "-3.87% from $6.56 base",
"price": 6.31,
"updated": "Oct 15, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQCM",
"mfe": 12.74,
"mae": -4.33
},
{
"label": "+10 sessions",
"status": "complete",
"return": -12.25,
"reference_text": "-12.25% from $6.56 base",
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