REGN episode 20261012_REGN_MIDDAY

Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.

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  "episode_id": "20261012_REGN_MIDDAY",
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  "public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/coverage/regn/2026-10-12/midday/",
  "published_at": "2026-10-12T19:51:50.913584Z",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-27T16:12:31.688399Z",
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  "instrument": {
    "type": "equity",
    "symbol": "REGN",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "name": "Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc."
  },
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    "model_upside_scenario_2": 831.68,
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  "public_content": {
    "date": "October 12, 2026",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-12T19:51:50.913584Z",
    "original_published_at": null,
    "session_tag": "midday",
    "label": "Market coverage",
    "try_label": "Raw Try",
    "public_status": "Raw Try",
    "why_today": "Trusted reporting describes sustained efficacy and no new abnormal bone growth in an 84-week extension trial of garetosmab (Pasatru) for FOP. The pre-cut market response supports a focused research thesis, but two closely spaced observations on quiet volume do not establish a durable 15-session path.",
    "entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: Trusted reporting describes sustained efficacy and no new abnormal bone growth in an 84-week extension trial of Regeneron's garetosmab (Pasatru) for FOP. The pre-cut price response gives the report a concrete market question to follow, but the evidence does not establish a defensible S0–S15 path strongly enough for Try of the Day. Invalidation boundary: The thesis is weakened if the full trial results do not support the reported durable benefit or reveal safety or clinical limitations that undermine it. A failure to retain relative strength over S1–S3 would also weaken the market-response part of the thesis.",
    "reference_price": 766.22,
    "scanner": {
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      "reference": 766.22,
      "score": null,
      "score_version": "legacy research",
      "change": 2.62,
      "volume": 345762.0,
      "average_volume": 735168.0,
      "volume_ratio": 0.47,
      "rsi": 36.36,
      "ema_trend": "750.82 > 763.02 > 764.65",
      "position_52w": 89.15,
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      "range_position": 0.89,
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      "relative_strength": {
        "excess_pct": 3.44,
        "index": "QQQ",
        "index_chg_pct": -0.82,
        "status": "idiosyncratic"
      },
      "volume_percentile": {
        "median_vol": 672000,
        "percentile": 0.0,
        "status": "quiet",
        "today_vol": 345762
      },
      "extension": {
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        "status": "healthy"
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        "status": "clear"
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      "options_snapshot": null,
      "extended_hours": {
        "ext_pct": null,
        "market_state": "REGULAR",
        "phase": "regular",
        "post_market_pct": null,
        "pre_market_pct": null,
        "status": "none"
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      "short_pct_float": 2.21,
      "days_to_cover": 2.91,
      "catalyst": "Regeneron’s Rare Disease Drug Shows Zero New Abnormal Bone Growth In Extended Trial – REGN Stock Heads For Best Day In Over A Month",
      "sector": "Healthcare",
      "exchange": "NASDAQ",
      "sec_signal": null
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    "review": {
      "score": null,
      "status": "Raw Try",
      "summary": "Trusted reporting describes sustained efficacy and no new abnormal bone growth in an 84-week extension trial of garetosmab (Pasatru) for FOP. The pre-cut market response supports a focused research thesis, but two closely spaced observations on quiet volume do not establish a durable 15-session path.",
      "views": [
        {
          "name": "Elena Vartanyan",
          "role": "independent statistical auditor",
          "icon": "🎯",
          "view": "Before the names: the supplied snapshot leans soft, with the Nasdaq weaker, the dollar and VIX firmer, and gold and oil moving in opposite directions. It is about two hours old at our cutoff, so it is context, not a live read or a cause.",
          "reasoning": "My vote is Raw Try for REGN, not Try of the Day. The reported result gives us a researchable question and a concrete next check; the sparse, quiet market path does not support the stronger label."
        },
        {
          "name": "Kenji Osei",
          "role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
          "icon": "🧠",
          "view": "Agreed. The earlier breadth proxy was close to balanced, but the end-of-day layer is unavailable and that proxy is more than two hours old now. We do not have a validated shared news cut to explain the session.",
          "reasoning": "Agreed: Raw Try. The next useful evidence is the full trial detail plus a real S1–S3 market response."
        },
        {
          "name": "Marcus Feld",
          "role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
          "icon": "🦊",
          "view": "REGN has the clearest specific clinical report: an 84-week FOP extension trial reportedly showed no new abnormal bone growth. Its last pre-cut observation was up 2.636% at $766.22. But we have only two readings nineteen seconds apart.",
          "reasoning": "I agree with Raw Try. I was closer to Try on the clinical result, but the two near-adjacent readings cannot carry a fifteen-session claim."
        },
        {
          "name": "Priya Nandakumar",
          "role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
          "icon": "🛡️",
          "view": "And volume was 345,762 against a 3-month average of 735,168, less than half the usual level. That is a positive response on light participation, not proof the market will keep following it.",
          "reasoning": "I support Raw Try. The endpoint and safety tables could change the clinical case, and the market still has to show it can hold relative strength."
        },
        {
          "name": "Nate Brooks",
          "role": "market structure and timing analyst",
          "icon": "📈",
          "view": "TRAX has the louder move: its earlier quote was up 8.97% on 6.01 times average volume, and its pre-cut trajectory later reached +10.91%. But the earlier intraday capture was below VWAP—the session's volume-weighted average price—and in a downtrend. The path is not clean.",
          "reasoning": "Agreed. If the full data undercut the reported benefit, or the next sessions fail to retain relative strength, the thesis should be dropped."
        }
      ],
      "conviction": {
        "status_phrase": "recorded",
        "basis": "These percentages express editorial confidence in the Raw Try classification, not market-return probabilities or a vote count. All five voices explicitly resolve on Raw Try; the unresolved share reflects the thin path evidence and missing primary trial detail.",
        "risk": "",
        "resolution_pct": 68.0,
        "counter_case_pct": 20.0,
        "unresolved_pct": 12.0
      },
      "context_roundtable": {
        "mode": "coffee",
        "status": "complete",
        "consulted_voice_ids": [
          "elena",
          "marcus",
          "kenji",
          "priya",
          "nate"
        ],
        "summary": "Monday's market was mixed: major indexes remained near records while the dated snapshot showed modest declines, with technology under pressure and energy benefiting from higher crude. Inflation data, rate expectations and geopolitical energy risks kept the backdrop unsettled; the available breadth read did not establish a broad market selloff.",
        "long_read": "The shared market snapshot was captured at 16:53 UTC and was more than two hours old by the review cutoff. It showed the S&P 500 down 0.10%, the Nasdaq 100 down 0.67% and the Russell 2000 down 0.19%; the VIX stood at 15.21, up 2.49%. The VIX is an options-market gauge of expected volatility: a rise means protection became more expensive, not that a crash is forecast. AP described Monday trading as mixed and the market as still near record levels, with energy shares helped by crude while large technology names weighed. A market can remain near a record level even as its daily change is negative; those describe different things.\n\nInflation and policy were part of the week's setup, not settled outcomes. The Federal Reserve's September minutes record a quarter-point rate increase and say most participants expected another increase could be appropriate by year-end, while future decisions remained dependent on incoming data. AP reported that economists expected September CPI to reach 3.6%, compared with 3.4% in August, and that PPI and retail-sales updates were due later in the week. CPI measures consumer prices; PPI tracks prices faced by businesses before they reach consumers. Those figures were forecasts, not released results. The minutes also identified energy disruptions and AI-related demand as risks that could make inflation more persistent.\n\nEnergy and geopolitics added another layer. AP reported Brent crude up 1.9% to $106.78 amid uncertainty around the Iran war and global supply. The shared snapshot separately listed WTI at $93.72, up 2.04%; Brent and WTI are different crude benchmarks, so their levels are not directly comparable. AP's reporting on the proposed Russian diesel arrangement distinguished its limited potential volume from its larger political significance. That is a reason to track supply and policy uncertainty, not to treat a headline as proof that energy costs will fall.\n\nThe snapshot listed the U.S. 10-year yield at 5.24% with a separate reported change of -0.40 basis points. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. AP noted that U.S. bond trading was closed Monday and that the yield was 5.24% late Friday, so the displayed yield should not be treated as a fresh Monday Treasury-market confirmation. The earlier breadth proxy was nearly balanced, but it was dated and no end-of-day breadth layer was available. Breadth counts advancing and declining shares; without a final reading, this cut cannot establish whether the modest index declines reflected broad selling. For the REGN publication, this backdrop can frame rates and risk appetite, but it does not answer the clinical questions in the company's report.",
        "transcript": [
          {
            "speaker_id": "kenji",
            "text": "The shared market snapshot was captured at 16:53 UTC. It showed modest pressure across the broad indexes, with technology weaker, and a higher VIX. The VIX is the options market's gauge of expected volatility; a rise means hedging got more expensive, not that a crash is forecast."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "nate",
            "text": "AP called it mixed and still near records. That's not a conflict: “near a record” describes the index level against its history; the daily change describes today's move. Energy gained while big technology names dragged."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "elena",
            "text": "The earlier breadth proxy was close to even, but it was already hours old and there was no end-of-day reading. Breadth means counting how many shares rose versus fell; this evidence doesn't support calling the whole market a broad selloff."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "marcus",
            "text": "The Federal Reserve minutes give the policy backdrop: it raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point in September, and most participants thought another increase could be appropriate by year-end. They also tied energy disruptions and AI demand to inflation risk."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "elena",
            "text": "Could be appropriate is not a promise. The minutes say decisions depend on incoming data. AP reports economists expect September CPI at 3.6%, versus 3.4% in August, with PPI due Thursday. CPI tracks consumer prices; PPI tracks business prices before they reach consumers. Neither forecast is an actual result."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "priya",
            "text": "Energy is the practical pressure point. AP reported Brent up 1.9% to $106.78 as uncertainty around the Iran war kept supply risk in focus. Oil can feed through to fuel and shipping costs, so the inflation channel reaches well beyond energy companies."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "nate",
            "text": "Our snapshot has WTI at $93.72, up 2.04%. That doesn't contradict the Brent report, does it?"
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "kenji",
            "text": "No. Brent and WTI are separate crude benchmarks, so their price levels aren't directly comparable. The useful shared observation is that both sources reported their own oil measure higher."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "priya",
            "text": "The Russian diesel story needs the same separation. AP said the potential export volume was small relative to overall demand, while the political consequences could be larger. A political headline is not proof of immediate supply relief."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "marcus",
            "text": "And the index wasn't being pulled by one sector alone: AP reported energy gains and technology weakness. Investors are heading into earnings season asking whether AI spending can produce earnings, not just a compelling story."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "kenji",
            "text": "One rate field needs a timestamp attached. The snapshot listed the 10-year yield at 5.24% and a separate change of -0.40 basis points; one basis point is 0.01 percentage point. AP says cash bond trading was closed Monday and the yield was 5.24% late Friday, so this isn't a fresh Monday rate confirmation."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "priya",
            "text": "For the REGN report in this publication, energy and rates can shape the risk backdrop investors apply to a clinical story. They cannot confirm whether the reported trial effect is durable; that's a different kind of evidence."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "marcus",
            "text": "Right. The market's inflation problem doesn't test a clinical endpoint, and a clinical report doesn't settle the week's inflation data. Keep those questions in their own lanes."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "nate",
            "text": "So the session has a near-record level, modest benchmark losses, an energy bid and tech pressure. With no final breadth read, we can describe the mix; we can't turn it into one clean market-wide signal."
          }
        ]
      },
      "context_roundtable_sources": []
    },
    "updates": [
      {
        "day": 11,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-27T16:12:31.688399Z",
        "date": "Session 11 · Oct 27, 2026 · 12:12 NASDAQ",
        "text": "Regeneron tracking gain rose 0.77 points to 6.18%; shares were 0.11% above VWAP and 3.18 points ahead of Healthcare over twenty sessions. Volume remained 0.18 times average. The price path holds, but this packet adds no full trial results for garetosmab.",
        "price": 812.64,
        "pct": 6.18,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 6.06,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 6.06,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.65,
        "session_day": 11,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$812.64 · +6.06% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": {
          "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1",
          "assessment": "unassessed",
          "claim": "Full clinical disclosure supports the reported sustained 84-week garetosmab benefit without new abnormal bone growth.",
          "summary": "The market record remains positive, but the sparse price update and low volume do not resolve the clinical claim; full trial data remain absent from this packet.",
          "evidence_refs": [
            {
              "kind": "market_observation",
              "field": "return_vs_entry_pct",
              "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:08:16.729992Z",
              "value": 6.18,
              "rationale": "The tracked gain increased since the previous public note, supporting the market-response component but not clinical efficacy."
            },
            {
              "kind": "market_observation",
              "field": "vwap",
              "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:08:16.729992Z",
              "value": 811.75,
              "rationale": "Low volume limits the confirmation provided by the small session gain."
            }
          ]
        },
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-27T15:08:16.729992Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 11,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-27T11:07:47Z",
        "date": "Session 11 · Oct 27, 2026 · 07:07 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN remains up 5.41% through session 11 and leads Healthcare by 2.69 points over 20 sessions; the latest regular close was nearly flat on below-average volume.",
        "price": 807.67,
        "pct": 5.41,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.41,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 5.41,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
        "session_day": 11,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$807.67 · +5.41% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": {
          "phase": "post",
          "text": "Aftermarket update: $807.67 (0.00% vs regular close) · Oct 26, 2026 · 17:32 NASDAQ"
        },
        "extended_hours": {
          "phase": "post",
          "price": 807.67,
          "ext_pct": 0.0,
          "as_of": "2026-10-26T21:32:12Z",
          "persisted": true
        },
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": {
          "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1",
          "assessment": "unassessed",
          "claim": "Garetosmab's reported 84-week efficacy and absence of new abnormal bone growth need full trial and safety data to establish durability.",
          "summary": "The positive tracking and relative returns describe the market response only. This cut adds no clinical readout or safety detail that can assess the reported trial findings.",
          "evidence_refs": []
        },
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-26T21:32:12Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 10,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-26T23:42:18.610302Z",
        "date": "Session 10 · Oct 26, 2026 · 19:42 NASDAQ",
        "text": "Regeneron's tracking gain increased to 5.41% in session 10, up 0.40 percentage point, while shares rose 0.33% to $807.67. The stock leads Healthcare by 2.69 percentage points over 20 sessions, although dollar volume remains below its average. No primary follow-up has yet clarified garetosmab's durability of effect or safety.",
        "price": 807.67,
        "pct": 5.41,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.41,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 5.41,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0,
        "session_day": 10,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$807.67 · +5.41% from $766.22 base",
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        "relevant": false,
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        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
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        "price_as_of": "2026-10-26T21:32:12Z",
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      },
      {
        "day": 10,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-26T21:56:21.557278Z",
        "date": "Session 10 · Oct 26, 2026 · 17:56 NASDAQ",
        "text": "The tracked gain for REGN rose 0.40 points to 5.41% on session 10 as the latest quote added 0.33% to $807.67. REGN leads Healthcare by 2.69 points over 20 sessions, although dollar volume was 0.63 of its 20-day average. That relative edge does not resolve the missing primary follow-up on garetosmab: efficacy durability and safety remain open.",
        "price": 807.67,
        "pct": 5.41,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.41,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 5.41,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.39,
        "session_day": 10,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$807.67 · +5.41% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
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        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-26T20:22:40Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 10,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-26T16:19:23.844378Z",
        "date": "Session 10 · Oct 26, 2026 · 12:19 NASDAQ",
        "text": "On session 10, REGN’s tracked gain eased 0.05 points to 5.01%; the quote was nearly flat but 0.79% below VWAP near the lower range on a fading 0.48 time-adjusted pace. It still leads Healthcare by 2.21 points over 20 sessions, yet the handoff adds no primary trial follow-up on garetosmab efficacy durability or safety.",
        "price": 804.66,
        "pct": 5.01,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.02,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 5.02,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.04,
        "session_day": 10,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$804.66 · +5.02% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
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        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-26T15:19:48.386219Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 9,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-23T22:03:12.448080Z",
        "date": "Session 9 · Oct 23, 2026 · 18:03 NASDAQ",
        "text": "The tracked gain slipped 0.01 points to 5.06% on session 9, while the latest capture fell 1.72% to $805.02 just below VWAP. REGN now trails Healthcare by 2.88 points over 20 sessions; the reported 84-week garetosmab results remain the thesis catalyst, but this handoff adds no primary trial follow-up to resolve durability or safety.",
        "price": 805.02,
        "pct": 5.06,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.06,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 5.06,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.23,
        "session_day": 9,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$805.02 · +5.06% from $766.22 base",
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      {
        "day": 9,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-23T20:15:35.922028Z",
        "date": "Session 9 · Oct 23, 2026 · 16:15 NASDAQ",
        "text": "The tracked REGN gain edged 0.15 points higher to 5.07% on session 9, but shares fell 1.51% to $806.75 below VWAP on 0.46 times usual volume. The 20-session Healthcare lag is 2.59 points. The reported 84-week extension results remain the thesis catalyst, but this handoff adds no trial follow-up, so the market capture does not resolve durability.",
        "price": 806.75,
        "pct": 5.07,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.29,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 5.29,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.02,
        "session_day": 9,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$806.75 · +5.29% from $766.22 base",
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        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
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        "price_as_of": "2026-10-23T19:22:12.987963Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 9,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-23T14:57:14.591692Z",
        "date": "Session 9 · Oct 23, 2026 · 10:57 NASDAQ",
        "text": "The tracked gain fell 1.98 points to 4.92% on session 9 as shares dropped 1.52% to $806.63 below the session average on light activity. The 20-session Healthcare lag narrowed to 2.95 points, while the 84-week Pasatru evidence remains limited by 58 participants and dose-related infections; the current retreat weakens the market response without settling the clinical question.",
        "price": 806.63,
        "pct": 4.92,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.27,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 5.27,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.63,
        "session_day": 9,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$806.63 · +5.27% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-23T14:06:04.621810Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 8,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-22T22:04:34.756486Z",
        "date": "Session 8 · Oct 22, 2026 · 18:04 NASDAQ",
        "text": "The tracked gain eased 0.33 points to 6.90% on session 8 even as shares rose 1.67% to $819.09 above VWAP on 1.15 times average volume. The 20-session return still trails Healthcare by 3.83 points. The 84-week Pasatru extension supports sustained efficacy without new abnormal bone growth, but its 58 participants and dose-related infections limit what it establishes.",
        "price": 819.09,
        "pct": 6.9,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 6.9,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 6.9,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.33,
        "session_day": 8,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$819.09 · +6.90% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-22T20:52:32Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 8,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-22T20:06:02.712232Z",
        "date": "Session 8 · Oct 22, 2026 · 16:06 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN added 2.08 points to a 7.23% tracked gain on session 8 as shares rose 1.98% to $821.64 above VWAP near the upper range on 0.78 times average volume. The 20-session Healthcare gap narrowed to 3.62 points but remains negative. The reported 84-week Pasatru extension still supports sustained efficacy without new abnormal bone growth, but its 58 participants and dose-related infections limit what it establishes.",
        "price": 821.64,
        "pct": 7.23,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 7.23,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 7.23,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.08,
        "session_day": 8,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$821.64 · +7.23% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-22T19:21:50.306215Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
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      {
        "day": 7,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-21T21:52:32.762976Z",
        "date": "Session 7 · Oct 21, 2026 · 17:52 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN gave back 0.23 points of its tracked gain, leaving +5.15% on session 7. The latest quote slipped 0.22% to $805.67, while the available regular-session read remained above VWAP around mid-range on fading activity. The reported 84-week Pasatru results still support the clinical signal, but a 58-person extension and dose-related infections limit what they establish; REGN trails Healthcare by 5.53 points over twenty sessions.",
        "price": 805.67,
        "pct": 5.15,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.15,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 5.15,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.23,
        "session_day": 7,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$805.67 · +5.15% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-21T20:36:16Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 7,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-21T00:36:18.705430Z",
        "date": "Session 7 · Oct 20, 2026 · 20:36 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN's tracked gain remained 5.38% on session 7 as shares rose 3.25% to $807.48 and held 0.32% above VWAP. The reported 84-week Pasatru results still strengthen the clinical case, but the 58-person extension and dose-related skin infections limit what they establish; Regeneron also trails Healthcare by 5.95 points over 20 sessions, so the market response is not broad relative confirmation.",
        "price": 807.48,
        "pct": 5.38,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.38,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 5.38,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.98,
        "session_day": 7,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$807.48 · +5.38% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-20T21:03:15Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 6,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-20T21:15:10.608020Z",
        "date": "Session 6 · Oct 20, 2026 · 17:15 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN’s tracked gain increased 3.32 points to +5.38% on session 6; the quote was up 2.29% and 0.32% above VWAP, though time-adjusted volume was 0.66 and fading. Regeneron now reports no new bone lesions from weeks 56–84 in the Pasatru arm versus nine on placebo, a material extension of the clinical case. Dose-related skin infections and a 58-person extension leave the longer-term balance open.",
        "price": 799.91,
        "pct": 5.38,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 4.4,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 4.4,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.34,
        "session_day": 6,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$799.91 · +4.40% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": true,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-353ada6321e9e5246d346b3dc54be990721b3a06ee02140c18e5aa0fbc9cb1a4",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-20T19:32:17.054310Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 5,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-19T22:19:51.008687Z",
        "date": "Session 5 · Oct 19, 2026 · 18:19 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN's tracked gain eased 0.40 percentage points to 2.06% as the quote fell 1.10%, finished 0.35% below VWAP near the session low, and traded on 0.66 times average volume. The last complete comparison showed a 5.95-point deficit to Healthcare; today's weaker tape does not resolve the reported 84-week garetosmab findings, which still lack full primary trial results.",
        "price": 782.04,
        "pct": 2.06,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 2.06,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 2.06,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.26,
        "session_day": 5,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$782.04 · +2.06% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-19T20:41:17Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 5,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-19T20:01:46.203993Z",
        "date": "Session 5 · Oct 19, 2026 · 16:01 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN's tracked gain fell 0.74 points to 2.46% as the quote dropped 0.85%, finished 0.35% below VWAP near the lower range and traded at 0.40 times normal volume. Its 20-session performance now trails Healthcare by 5.95 points, wider than the prior 4.19-point gap; the reported garetosmab extension still lacks full primary trial results.",
        "price": 783.98,
        "pct": 2.46,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 2.32,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 2.32,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.88,
        "session_day": 5,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$783.98 · +2.32% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-19T19:21:30.182691Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 4,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-16T22:05:52.650041Z",
        "date": "Session 4 · Oct 16, 2026 · 18:05 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN's tracked gain added 0.04 points to 3.20% despite a 0.70% decline that finished 0.41% below VWAP near the lower range on 0.88 times normal volume. It trails Healthcare by 4.19 points over 20 sessions, while the reported 84-week garetosmab extension still lacks full primary trial results; the gain holds, but evidence for durable market acceptance is limited.",
        "price": 790.74,
        "pct": 3.2,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 3.2,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 3.2,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.03,
        "session_day": 4,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$790.74 · +3.20% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-16T20:47:20Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 4,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-16T20:11:11.652957Z",
        "date": "Session 4 · Oct 16, 2026 · 16:11 NASDAQ",
        "text": "The tracked gain for REGN eased 0.68 points to 3.16%; the latest quote fell 0.68%, sat 0.41% below the volume-weighted average near the lower range, and traded at 0.48x normal volume. Its 20-session return trails Healthcare by 4.03 points, while the reported 84-week garetosmab extension still lacks full primary trial data.",
        "price": 790.955,
        "pct": 3.16,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 3.23,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 3.23,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.68,
        "session_day": 4,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$790.96 · +3.23% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-16T19:21:22.647785Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 4,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-16T14:22:44.863836Z",
        "date": "Session 4 · Oct 16, 2026 · 10:22 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN's tracked gain eased 0.09 points to 3.84% while the latest quote was nearly flat and 0.35% below VWAP. Its 20-session return trails Healthcare by 4.19 points despite the positive tracked gain; the reported 84-week garetosmab result still lacks full primary trial data, so price action does not confirm clinical durability.",
        "price": 796.18,
        "pct": 3.84,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 3.91,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 3.91,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.02,
        "session_day": 4,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$796.18 · +3.91% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-16T14:06:07.820265Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 3,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-15T22:12:23.608778Z",
        "date": "Session 3 · Oct 15, 2026 · 18:12 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN's tracked gain eased 0.26 percentage points to 3.93%, despite a 2.31% rise in the latest quote on near-average volume. The reported 84-week garetosmab extension remains a research signal, but full primary trial data are absent and the current price response does not establish clinical durability. Relative performance and follow-through therefore remain open questions.",
        "price": 796.34,
        "pct": 3.93,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 3.93,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 3.93,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.34,
        "session_day": 3,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$796.34 · +3.93% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-15T20:41:00Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 3,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-15T20:17:55.098316Z",
        "date": "Session 3 · Oct 15, 2026 · 16:17 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN's tracked gain eased 0.23 points to 4.19% despite a 2.64% session rise; shares ended 0.36% below VWAP in the lower half of the range and still trail Healthcare by 4.30 points over 20 sessions. The reported 84-week garetosmab extension data remains a research signal, but this capture has not repaired relative weakness or established a durable tracking path.",
        "price": 798.915,
        "pct": 4.19,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 4.27,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 4.27,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.68,
        "session_day": 3,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$798.91 · +4.27% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-15T19:21:33.629030Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 3,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-15T14:50:34.227308Z",
        "date": "Session 3 · Oct 15, 2026 · 10:50 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN's tracked gain improved 2.84 percentage points to 4.42%; the early capture was up 3.32%, 0.39% above VWAP in the upper third of the range, and 3.65 points ahead of SPY. It still trails Healthcare by 3.83 points over 20 sessions, while the reported 84-week garetosmab benefit lacks full durability and safety detail; the active model's sub-41% same-direction reading and wide range leave follow-through unresolved.",
        "price": 804.17,
        "pct": 4.42,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 4.95,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 4.95,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.37,
        "session_day": 3,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$804.17 · +4.95% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-ec6c23f03eb0eee27da92478da811f333698244a70202bfbd2c0ff382dffda63",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-15T14:06:44.673876Z",
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      },
      {
        "day": 2,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-14T21:46:10.258011Z",
        "date": "Session 2 · Oct 14, 2026 · 17:46 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN tracked gain improved 0.20 point to 1.58%; shares rose 3.35% in the regular session, finished 0.73% above VWAP in the upper range, and were flat after hours. The 20-session return still trails Healthcare by 3.21 points, so one strong session has not reversed the relative lag. The reported 84-week garetosmab result still lacks full durability and safety detail.",
        "price": 778.36,
        "pct": 1.58,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 1.58,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 1.58,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.26,
        "session_day": 2,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$778.36 · +1.58% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-14T20:53:26Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 2,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-14T20:37:24.096961Z",
        "date": "Session 2 · Oct 14, 2026 · 16:37 NASDAQ",
        "text": "Regeneron's tracked return improved 1.03 points to +1.38% as shares rose 3.08%, held 0.47% above VWAP near the upper range and rebounded from the prior note's loss. It still trails Healthcare by 3.33 points over 20 sessions, and the price rebound does not supply the durability and safety detail missing from the reported 84-week garetosmab result.",
        "price": 776.34,
        "pct": 1.38,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 1.32,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 1.32,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.81,
        "session_day": 2,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$776.34 · +1.32% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-14T19:41:13.876792Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 2,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-14T15:10:02.324820Z",
        "date": "Session 2 · Oct 14, 2026 · 11:10 NASDAQ",
        "text": "For REGN, the tracked return improved 2.06 points to +0.35% as shares rose 2.26% above VWAP near the high, despite light dollar turnover. It still trails Healthcare by 3.57 points over 20 sessions. The rebound improves the market response but does not settle whether the reported 84-week garetosmab result holds on durability and safety.",
        "price": 770.16,
        "pct": 0.35,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.51,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 0.51,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.22,
        "session_day": 2,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$770.16 · +0.51% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-14T14:06:37.850462Z",
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      },
      {
        "day": 1,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-13T21:51:30.401363Z",
        "date": "Session 1 · Oct 13, 2026 · 17:51 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN's tracked loss widened 0.32 percentage points to 1.71% as shares fell 1.27%, held just above VWAP near midrange, and traded on dollar turnover of 0.81 times its 20-day average. Its 20-session performance trails Healthcare by 3.90 points; the reported 84-week garetosmab result still needs full trial evidence on durability and safety.",
        "price": 753.12,
        "pct": -1.71,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.71,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -1.71,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.25,
        "session_day": 1,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$753.12 · -1.71% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-13T20:57:45Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 1,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-13T20:08:22.176990Z",
        "date": "Session 1 · Oct 13, 2026 · 16:08 NASDAQ",
        "text": "Regeneron’s tracked loss held at 1.39% as shares fell 1.02% but remained above VWAP around midrange on 0.51 times average volume. The reported 84-week garetosmab extension still needs full trial evidence on durability and safety; this quiet, mixed position does not establish a durable path.",
        "price": 755.015,
        "pct": -1.39,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.46,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -1.46,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.1,
        "session_day": 1,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$755.01 · -1.46% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "related_links": [],
        "thesis_change": null,
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-13T19:24:51.998952Z",
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      {
        "day": 1,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-13T15:29:23.183694Z",
        "date": "Session 1 · Oct 13, 2026 · 11:29 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN's tracked loss widened 0.94 percentage points to 1.39% as shares fell 2.12%, trading 0.69% below the day's volume-weighted average price near the lower range on light early volume. Its 20-session performance trails Healthcare by 4.85 points. The pullback challenges the initial market response, while the reported 84-week garetosmab result still awaits full trial evidence on durability and safety.",
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        "pct": -1.39,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -2.56,
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        "session_day": 1,
        "reference_price": 766.22,
        "reference_text": "$746.61 · -2.56% from $766.22 base",
        "timing": "",
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        "active_relevant": false,
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      {
        "day": 0,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-12T22:08:36.044795Z",
        "date": "Session 0 · Oct 12, 2026 · 18:08 NASDAQ",
        "text": "REGN's first tracked session sits at a 0.45% loss even though the later market capture shows shares at $762.81, up 2.18% for the day; no intraday benchmark is available. The stock trails Healthcare by 6.43 points over 20 sessions, and the price move does not settle whether the reported 84-week garetosmab benefit will prove durable or safe.",
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        "reference_price": 766.22,
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        "timing": "",
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        "price_as_of": "2026-10-12T20:56:21Z",
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    "observed_outcomes": [
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        "return": -1.71,
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        "price": 753.12,
        "updated": "Oct 13, 2026 · 17:06 NASDAQ",
        "mfe": -0.08,
        "mae": -2.96
      },
      {
        "label": "+5 sessions",
        "status": "complete",
        "return": 2.06,
        "reference_text": "+2.06% from $766.22 base",
        "price": 782.04,
        "updated": "Oct 19, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQ",
        "mfe": 5.65,
        "mae": -2.96
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      {
        "label": "+10 sessions",
        "status": "complete",
        "return": 5.41,
        "reference_text": "+5.41% from $766.22 base",
        "price": 807.67,
        "updated": "Oct 26, 2026 · 17:02 NASDAQ",
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        "mae": -2.96
      },
      {
        "label": "+15 sessions",
        "status": "pending",
        "return": null,
        "reference_text": "",
        "price": null,
        "updated": "",
        "mfe": null,
        "mae": null
      }
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