{ "schema_version": "tryding-agent-episode.v1", "episode_id": "20261012_REGN_MIDDAY", "episode_url": "https://trydingday.com/data/agents/v1/episodes/20261012_REGN_MIDDAY.json", "public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/coverage/regn/2026-10-12/midday/", "published_at": "2026-10-12T19:51:50.913584Z", "updated_at": "2026-11-02T15:43:58.492198Z", "lifecycle": { "tracking_status": "open", "active_for_tracking": true, "stage": "tracking" }, "instrument": { "type": "equity", "symbol": "REGN", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "name": "Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc." }, "technical_reference": { "status": "ok", "reference_price": 766.22, "model_downside_reference": 733.49, "model_upside_scenario_1": 798.95, "model_upside_scenario_2": 831.68, "atr_14": 21.82, "method": "reference_price_plus_minus_atr14" }, "public_content": { "date": "October 12, 2026", "generated_at": "2026-10-12T19:51:50.913584Z", "original_published_at": null, "session_tag": "midday", "label": "Market coverage", "try_label": "Raw Try", "public_status": "Raw Try", "why_today": "Trusted reporting describes sustained efficacy and no new abnormal bone growth in an 84-week extension trial of garetosmab (Pasatru) for FOP. The pre-cut market response supports a focused research thesis, but two closely spaced observations on quiet volume do not establish a durable 15-session path.", "entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: Trusted reporting describes sustained efficacy and no new abnormal bone growth in an 84-week extension trial of Regeneron's garetosmab (Pasatru) for FOP. The pre-cut price response gives the report a concrete market question to follow, but the evidence does not establish a defensible S0–S15 path strongly enough for Try of the Day. Invalidation boundary: The thesis is weakened if the full trial results do not support the reported durable benefit or reveal safety or clinical limitations that undermine it. A failure to retain relative strength over S1–S3 would also weaken the market-response part of the thesis.", "reference_price": 766.22, "scanner": { "price": 766.22, "reference": 766.22, "score": null, "score_version": "legacy research", "change": 2.62, "volume": 345762.0, "average_volume": 735168.0, "volume_ratio": 0.47, "rsi": 36.36, "ema_trend": "750.82 > 763.02 > 764.65", "position_52w": 89.15, "atr_14": 21.82, "vwap": 764.57, "vwap_state": "above", "vwap_distance_pct": 0.22, "vwap_reading": { "price": 764.57, "state": "above", "distance_pct": 0.22 }, "range_position": 0.89, "gap_pct": 0.0, "relative_strength": { "excess_pct": 3.44, "index": "QQQ", "index_chg_pct": -0.82, "status": "idiosyncratic" }, "volume_percentile": { "median_vol": 672000, "percentile": 0.0, "status": "quiet", "today_vol": 345762 }, "extension": { "atr": 21.82, "dist_atr": 0.15, "ema_ref": 763.02, "status": "healthy" }, "atr_move_signal": { "atr_pct": 2.85, "status": "noise", "z": 0.92 }, "sector_breadth": null, "sentiment": null, "sentiment_score": null, "earnings_warning": { "days_away": null, "earnings_date": null, "has_earnings_soon": false, "status": "clear" }, "options_snapshot": null, "extended_hours": { "ext_pct": null, "market_state": "REGULAR", "phase": "regular", "post_market_pct": null, "pre_market_pct": null, "status": "none" }, "coiled_spring": { "component_count": 0, "components": {}, "count": 0, "detector_version": "coiled-compression-ohlc.v1", "reason": "coiled_ohlc_detector_runs_on_research_and_known_ticker_rails", "schema_version": "coiled-features.v2", "status": "not_evaluated" }, "short_pct_float": 2.21, "days_to_cover": 2.91, "catalyst": "Regeneron’s Rare Disease Drug Shows Zero New Abnormal Bone Growth In Extended Trial – REGN Stock Heads For Best Day In Over A Month", "sector": "Healthcare", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "sec_signal": null }, "levels": { "reference": 766.22, "downside": 733.49, "upside_1": 798.95, "upside_2": 831.68 }, "review": { "score": null, "status": "Raw Try", "summary": "Trusted reporting describes sustained efficacy and no new abnormal bone growth in an 84-week extension trial of garetosmab (Pasatru) for FOP. The pre-cut market response supports a focused research thesis, but two closely spaced observations on quiet volume do not establish a durable 15-session path.", "views": [ { "name": "Elena Vartanyan", "role": "independent statistical auditor", "icon": "🎯", "view": "Before the names: the supplied snapshot leans soft, with the Nasdaq weaker, the dollar and VIX firmer, and gold and oil moving in opposite directions. It is about two hours old at our cutoff, so it is context, not a live read or a cause.", "reasoning": "My vote is Raw Try for REGN, not Try of the Day. The reported result gives us a researchable question and a concrete next check; the sparse, quiet market path does not support the stronger label." }, { "name": "Kenji Osei", "role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst", "icon": "🧠", "view": "Agreed. The earlier breadth proxy was close to balanced, but the end-of-day layer is unavailable and that proxy is more than two hours old now. We do not have a validated shared news cut to explain the session.", "reasoning": "Agreed: Raw Try. The next useful evidence is the full trial detail plus a real S1–S3 market response." }, { "name": "Marcus Feld", "role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst", "icon": "🦊", "view": "REGN has the clearest specific clinical report: an 84-week FOP extension trial reportedly showed no new abnormal bone growth. Its last pre-cut observation was up 2.636% at $766.22. But we have only two readings nineteen seconds apart.", "reasoning": "I agree with Raw Try. I was closer to Try on the clinical result, but the two near-adjacent readings cannot carry a fifteen-session claim." }, { "name": "Priya Nandakumar", "role": "institutional risk and execution manager", "icon": "🛡️", "view": "And volume was 345,762 against a 3-month average of 735,168, less than half the usual level. That is a positive response on light participation, not proof the market will keep following it.", "reasoning": "I support Raw Try. The endpoint and safety tables could change the clinical case, and the market still has to show it can hold relative strength." }, { "name": "Nate Brooks", "role": "market structure and timing analyst", "icon": "📈", "view": "TRAX has the louder move: its earlier quote was up 8.97% on 6.01 times average volume, and its pre-cut trajectory later reached +10.91%. But the earlier intraday capture was below VWAP—the session's volume-weighted average price—and in a downtrend. The path is not clean.", "reasoning": "Agreed. If the full data undercut the reported benefit, or the next sessions fail to retain relative strength, the thesis should be dropped." } ], "conviction": { "status_phrase": "recorded", "basis": "These percentages express editorial confidence in the Raw Try classification, not market-return probabilities or a vote count. All five voices explicitly resolve on Raw Try; the unresolved share reflects the thin path evidence and missing primary trial detail.", "risk": "", "resolution_pct": 68.0, "counter_case_pct": 20.0, "unresolved_pct": 12.0 }, "context_roundtable": { "mode": "coffee", "status": "complete", "consulted_voice_ids": [ "elena", "marcus", "kenji", "priya", "nate" ], "summary": "Monday's market was mixed: major indexes remained near records while the dated snapshot showed modest declines, with technology under pressure and energy benefiting from higher crude. Inflation data, rate expectations and geopolitical energy risks kept the backdrop unsettled; the available breadth read did not establish a broad market selloff.", "long_read": "The shared market snapshot was captured at 16:53 UTC and was more than two hours old by the review cutoff. It showed the S&P 500 down 0.10%, the Nasdaq 100 down 0.67% and the Russell 2000 down 0.19%; the VIX stood at 15.21, up 2.49%. The VIX is an options-market gauge of expected volatility: a rise means protection became more expensive, not that a crash is forecast. AP described Monday trading as mixed and the market as still near record levels, with energy shares helped by crude while large technology names weighed. A market can remain near a record level even as its daily change is negative; those describe different things.\n\nInflation and policy were part of the week's setup, not settled outcomes. The Federal Reserve's September minutes record a quarter-point rate increase and say most participants expected another increase could be appropriate by year-end, while future decisions remained dependent on incoming data. AP reported that economists expected September CPI to reach 3.6%, compared with 3.4% in August, and that PPI and retail-sales updates were due later in the week. CPI measures consumer prices; PPI tracks prices faced by businesses before they reach consumers. Those figures were forecasts, not released results. The minutes also identified energy disruptions and AI-related demand as risks that could make inflation more persistent.\n\nEnergy and geopolitics added another layer. AP reported Brent crude up 1.9% to $106.78 amid uncertainty around the Iran war and global supply. The shared snapshot separately listed WTI at $93.72, up 2.04%; Brent and WTI are different crude benchmarks, so their levels are not directly comparable. AP's reporting on the proposed Russian diesel arrangement distinguished its limited potential volume from its larger political significance. That is a reason to track supply and policy uncertainty, not to treat a headline as proof that energy costs will fall.\n\nThe snapshot listed the U.S. 10-year yield at 5.24% with a separate reported change of -0.40 basis points. One basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. AP noted that U.S. bond trading was closed Monday and that the yield was 5.24% late Friday, so the displayed yield should not be treated as a fresh Monday Treasury-market confirmation. The earlier breadth proxy was nearly balanced, but it was dated and no end-of-day breadth layer was available. Breadth counts advancing and declining shares; without a final reading, this cut cannot establish whether the modest index declines reflected broad selling. For the REGN publication, this backdrop can frame rates and risk appetite, but it does not answer the clinical questions in the company's report.", "transcript": [ { "speaker_id": "kenji", "text": "The shared market snapshot was captured at 16:53 UTC. It showed modest pressure across the broad indexes, with technology weaker, and a higher VIX. The VIX is the options market's gauge of expected volatility; a rise means hedging got more expensive, not that a crash is forecast." }, { "speaker_id": "nate", "text": "AP called it mixed and still near records. That's not a conflict: “near a record” describes the index level against its history; the daily change describes today's move. Energy gained while big technology names dragged." }, { "speaker_id": "elena", "text": "The earlier breadth proxy was close to even, but it was already hours old and there was no end-of-day reading. Breadth means counting how many shares rose versus fell; this evidence doesn't support calling the whole market a broad selloff." }, { "speaker_id": "marcus", "text": "The Federal Reserve minutes give the policy backdrop: it raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point in September, and most participants thought another increase could be appropriate by year-end. They also tied energy disruptions and AI demand to inflation risk." }, { "speaker_id": "elena", "text": "Could be appropriate is not a promise. The minutes say decisions depend on incoming data. AP reports economists expect September CPI at 3.6%, versus 3.4% in August, with PPI due Thursday. CPI tracks consumer prices; PPI tracks business prices before they reach consumers. Neither forecast is an actual result." }, { "speaker_id": "priya", "text": "Energy is the practical pressure point. AP reported Brent up 1.9% to $106.78 as uncertainty around the Iran war kept supply risk in focus. Oil can feed through to fuel and shipping costs, so the inflation channel reaches well beyond energy companies." }, { "speaker_id": "nate", "text": "Our snapshot has WTI at $93.72, up 2.04%. That doesn't contradict the Brent report, does it?" }, { "speaker_id": "kenji", "text": "No. Brent and WTI are separate crude benchmarks, so their price levels aren't directly comparable. The useful shared observation is that both sources reported their own oil measure higher." }, { "speaker_id": "priya", "text": "The Russian diesel story needs the same separation. AP said the potential export volume was small relative to overall demand, while the political consequences could be larger. A political headline is not proof of immediate supply relief." }, { "speaker_id": "marcus", "text": "And the index wasn't being pulled by one sector alone: AP reported energy gains and technology weakness. Investors are heading into earnings season asking whether AI spending can produce earnings, not just a compelling story." }, { "speaker_id": "kenji", "text": "One rate field needs a timestamp attached. The snapshot listed the 10-year yield at 5.24% and a separate change of -0.40 basis points; one basis point is 0.01 percentage point. AP says cash bond trading was closed Monday and the yield was 5.24% late Friday, so this isn't a fresh Monday rate confirmation." }, { "speaker_id": "priya", "text": "For the REGN report in this publication, energy and rates can shape the risk backdrop investors apply to a clinical story. They cannot confirm whether the reported trial effect is durable; that's a different kind of evidence." }, { "speaker_id": "marcus", "text": "Right. The market's inflation problem doesn't test a clinical endpoint, and a clinical report doesn't settle the week's inflation data. Keep those questions in their own lanes." }, { "speaker_id": "nate", "text": "So the session has a near-record level, modest benchmark losses, an energy bid and tech pressure. With no final breadth read, we can describe the mix; we can't turn it into one clean market-wide signal." } ] }, "context_roundtable_sources": [] }, "updates": [ { "day": 15, "timestamp": "2026-11-02T15:43:58.492198Z", "date": "Session 15 · Nov 2, 2026 · 10:43 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain rose 4.41 points to +25.51%, while its 20-session lead over Healthcare reached 21.93 points; the latest capture was up 3.25% above VWAP. That strengthens the market-response leg, but price is unusually stretched above its trend reference on 0.57 times normal volume, and the packet adds no full trial or safety detail; with no remaining-horizon model output at session 15, continuation remains uncertain.", "price": 958.06, "pct": 25.51, "return_vs_entry_pct": 25.04, "return_vs_base_pct": 25.04, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.94, "session_day": 15, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$958.06 · +25.04% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": true, "active_relevant": true, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-8092c4a3ca38f3d99a0b0f9a1cecafd46fdbbfcfa06782105aa475fe6a8189cf", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "strengthens", "claim": "REGN can retain relative market strength after the reported 84-week clinical result.", "summary": "The tracked gain is +25.51% and the current 20-session Healthcare lead is 21.93 points; extension and below-normal volume temper that evidence, while full trial and safety detail remain absent.", "evidence_refs": [ { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "return_vs_entry_pct", "as_of": "2026-11-02T15:26:30.094295Z", "value": 25.51, "rationale": "Tests whether the market-response condition has persisted through session 15." } ] }, "price_as_of": null, "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 14, "timestamp": "2026-10-30T21:07:41.470003Z", "date": "Session 14 · Oct 30, 2026 · 17:07 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN tracked gain rose 1.54 points to 21.10% as shares climbed 13.33% on 4.03 times average volume; its 20-session lead over Healthcare widened to 14.96 points. That is a forceful market response, but price now sits 4.45 ATR above its trend reference, while the sealed handoff still lacks full trial and safety detail; strong trading does not settle the clinical balance.", "price": 927.89, "pct": 21.1, "return_vs_entry_pct": 21.1, "return_vs_base_pct": 21.1, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.8, "session_day": 14, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$927.89 · +21.10% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "strengthens", "claim": "REGN is retaining a strong market response to the reported garetosmab result.", "summary": "Tracked return rose to +21.10% and the 20-session lead over Healthcare widened to 14.96 points, strengthening the market-response part of the thesis; the clinical and safety record remains incomplete.", "evidence_refs": [ { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "return_vs_entry_pct", "as_of": "2026-10-30T20:26:25.885671Z", "value": 21.1, "rationale": "Measures the continuing market response described by the published thesis, while not resolving trial durability or safety." } ] }, "price_as_of": "2026-10-30T20:31:28Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 14, "timestamp": "2026-10-30T15:34:33.210109Z", "date": "Session 14 · Oct 30, 2026 · 11:34 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN’s tracked gain increased by 12.70 points to 19.56% as shares rose 11.64% on 1.75 times usual volume and finished 0.82% above their volume-weighted average price. The 20-session lead over Healthcare widened to 12.25 points, but price is four ATRs above its trend reference; the clinical and safety questions remain separate from this strong market response.", "price": 914.105, "pct": 19.56, "return_vs_entry_pct": 19.3, "return_vs_base_pct": 19.3, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 12.44, "session_day": 14, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$914.11 · +19.30% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": true, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-63779fe65554f0242862ab92742af4f694e91ad40523d31c820df7a83c0cd915", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "strengthens", "claim": "The reported 84-week benefit and market response provide a focused research follow-up, while full durability and safety remain open.", "summary": "The market leg strengthened sharply and outperformed Healthcare over 20 sessions; this does not close the outstanding clinical and safety questions.", "evidence_refs": [ { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "price", "as_of": "2026-10-30T15:07:39.756955Z", "value": 914.105, "rationale": "The current price and 20-session comparison show strong market follow-through, although the move is extended." } ] }, "price_as_of": "2026-10-30T15:07:39.756955Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 14, "timestamp": "2026-10-30T00:37:20.763895Z", "date": "Session 14 · Oct 29, 2026 · 20:37 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain held at 6.86%, unchanged from the prior note, but the latest quote rose 0.68% to $818.77 on 1.09 times average volume and finished 0.12% below VWAP. Its 20-session lead over Healthcare narrowed to 0.54 points, and the capture places price near the bottom of the day's range. The modest market follow-through has weakened; the handoff still supplies no full garetosmab trial results or added safety detail, leaving the clinical claim unconfirmed.", "price": 818.77, "pct": 6.86, "return_vs_entry_pct": 6.86, "return_vs_base_pct": 6.86, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0, "session_day": 14, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$818.77 · +6.86% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "weakens", "claim": "The market response supports a focused garetosmab research thesis only if REGN retains relative strength through S1–S3; full trial results must confirm sustained efficacy without material safety limits.", "summary": "The tracked gain is unchanged, while price finished below VWAP and the 20-session Healthcare edge narrowed to 0.54 points. This weakens the market-response condition; the clinical claim remains unverified because no full trial data were added.", "evidence_refs": [ { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "return_vs_entry_pct", "as_of": "2026-10-29T23:29:15.746078Z", "value": 6.86, "rationale": "The tracked gain is unchanged, so the market-response thesis has not advanced on cumulative return." }, { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "price", "as_of": "2026-10-29T23:29:15.746078Z", "value": 818.77, "rationale": "The quote rose on the day but finished near the bottom of its range and below VWAP." }, { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "vwap", "as_of": "2026-10-29T23:27:50.536903Z", "value": 819.77, "rationale": "The captured price was 0.12% below VWAP, reducing confirmation from the latest session." }, { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "volume_ratio", "as_of": "2026-10-29T23:29:15.746078Z", "value": 1.09, "rationale": "Volume was only modestly above average and does not offset the weak close location." } ] }, "price_as_of": "2026-10-29T22:42:55Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 13, "timestamp": "2026-10-29T21:18:54.087385Z", "date": "Session 13 · Oct 29, 2026 · 17:18 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain edged up 0.02 points to 6.86%, and it remains 0.70 points ahead of Healthcare over 20 sessions. Shares rose 0.68% on 1.09 times usual volume and sat near VWAP. The modest market follow-through leaves the thesis intact, while full garetosmab trial data and added safety detail remain absent.", "price": 818.77, "pct": 6.86, "return_vs_entry_pct": 6.86, "return_vs_base_pct": 6.86, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.26, "session_day": 13, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$818.77 · +6.86% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "unchanged", "claim": "Reported 84-week extension results for garetosmab support a focused research question, but the available evidence does not establish a durable 15-session path.", "summary": "REGN retains a small gain over Healthcare and its tracked return is little changed; no new full trial results or safety detail materially change the conditional clinical thesis.", "evidence_refs": [ { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "return_vs_entry_pct", "as_of": "2026-10-29T20:23:19.274844Z", "value": 6.86, "rationale": "The tracked gain remains positive and changed by only 0.02 points in this update." }, { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "volume_ratio", "as_of": "2026-10-29T20:23:19.274844Z", "value": 1.09, "rationale": "Normal-volume trading gives no strong new confirmation beyond the modest price response." } ] }, "price_as_of": "2026-10-29T20:08:29Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 13, "timestamp": "2026-10-29T16:10:17.617879Z", "date": "Session 13 · Oct 29, 2026 · 12:10 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain added 0.70 points to 6.84%, and its 20-session Healthcare lead edged up to 0.85 points. Shares rose 0.43% to 816.80 but remained 0.51% below VWAP, so the market cushion is still modest. The published garetosmab thesis has gained no new confirmation or safety detail; its clinical meaning remains open.", "price": 816.795, "pct": 6.84, "return_vs_entry_pct": 6.6, "return_vs_base_pct": 6.6, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.46, "session_day": 13, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$816.79 · +6.60% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "unchanged", "claim": "The reported garetosmab extension results may support a focused clinical thesis, subject to confirmation and fuller safety disclosure.", "summary": "The tracked gain and sector lead improved modestly, but the capture stayed below VWAP and the clinical evidence remains unchanged.", "evidence_refs": [ { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "return_vs_entry_pct", "as_of": "2026-10-29T15:07:08.876936Z", "value": 6.84, "rationale": "The tracked gain improved 0.70 points from the prior public note." }, { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "vwap", "as_of": "2026-10-29T15:07:08.876936Z", "value": 821.0, "rationale": "The current 816.80 capture remained 0.51% below VWAP." }, { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "price", "as_of": "2026-10-29T15:07:08.876936Z", "value": 816.795, "rationale": "The 20-session Healthcare lead is small at 0.85 points." } ] }, "price_as_of": "2026-10-29T15:07:08.876936Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 12, "timestamp": "2026-10-28T22:48:07.476239Z", "date": "Session 12 · Oct 28, 2026 · 18:48 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN’s tracked gain held at 6.14% and its 20-session Healthcare lead remains 0.54 points, though shares slipped 0.35% below VWAP on 0.74 times usual volume. The market cushion is still positive but modest; no full garetosmab trial results or additional safety detail have changed the clinical question.", "price": 813.27, "pct": 6.14, "return_vs_entry_pct": 6.14, "return_vs_base_pct": 6.14, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0, "session_day": 12, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$813.27 · +6.14% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "unchanged", "claim": "REGN’s reported 84-week garetosmab findings support a research thesis, but the available evidence does not establish longer-term durability or safety.", "summary": "The tracked gain and small Healthcare lead remain intact, while the latest session softened on light volume. No new trial or safety evidence changes the conditional clinical thesis.", "evidence_refs": [ { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "return_vs_entry_pct", "as_of": "2026-10-28T22:26:22.807505Z", "value": 6.14, "rationale": "The tracked gain remains positive and unchanged from the previous public note." }, { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "volume_ratio", "as_of": "2026-10-28T22:26:22.807505Z", "value": 0.74, "rationale": "Light participation leaves the latest price softening as a modest confirmation boundary." } ] }, "price_as_of": "2026-10-28T21:24:11Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 12, "timestamp": "2026-10-28T21:48:43.926680Z", "date": "Session 12 · Oct 28, 2026 · 17:48 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain eased 0.69 points to 6.14%; the latest capture was 0.14% below VWAP on 0.73 times usual volume. Its 20-session Healthcare lead remains 0.54 points, but no full garetosmab results or safety detail are supplied; the clinical question remains open as near-term confirmation softens.", "price": 813.27, "pct": 6.14, "return_vs_entry_pct": 6.14, "return_vs_base_pct": 6.14, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.64, "session_day": 12, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$813.27 · +6.14% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "weakens", "claim": "Near-term market confirmation softened while the clinical evidence remains incomplete.", "summary": "The positive tracked gain and small Healthcare lead remain, but the latest capture slipped below VWAP and the tracked gain declined. The packet still lacks full garetosmab trial results and safety detail, leaving the clinical claim unresolved.", "evidence_refs": [ { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "return_vs_entry_pct", "as_of": "2026-10-28T20:26:19.375087Z", "value": 6.14, "rationale": "The tracked gain fell by 0.69 points and the latest capture is below VWAP, while the 20-session Healthcare lead remains only 0.54 points." } ] }, "price_as_of": "2026-10-28T20:12:17Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 12, "timestamp": "2026-10-28T15:53:52.721907Z", "date": "Session 12 · Oct 28, 2026 · 11:53 NASDAQ", "text": "The tracked gain rose 0.32 points to 6.83%; price edged higher above VWAP on very light volume. This modest follow-through leaves the full garetosmab trial results and safety detail unresolved.", "price": 818.17, "pct": 6.83, "return_vs_entry_pct": 6.78, "return_vs_base_pct": 6.78, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.27, "session_day": 12, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$818.17 · +6.78% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "strengthens", "claim": "Reported sustained garetosmab efficacy and the captured price response merit a focused research thesis.", "summary": "The tracked gain improved and price stayed above VWAP, modestly supporting follow-through; full trial results and safety detail remain absent.", "evidence_refs": [ { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "return_vs_entry_pct", "as_of": "2026-10-28T15:06:48.246244Z", "value": 6.83, "rationale": "The current tracked return is 6.83%; change since the prior public update is 0.32 percentage points." }, { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "price", "as_of": "2026-10-28T15:06:48.246244Z", "value": 818.17, "rationale": "The current price is 818.17, with VWAP at 816.12 and captured price state above." } ] }, "price_as_of": "2026-10-28T15:06:48.246244Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 12, "timestamp": "2026-10-28T01:22:41.243627Z", "date": "Session 12 · Oct 27, 2026 · 21:22 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain remained 6.51% on day 12; the latest session added 1.04% on near-average volume above VWAP. The current capture shows a 2.69-point 20-session lead over Healthcare, below the 3.79-point lead in the prior note. The market path remains positive but has narrowed, and full garetosmab trial results are still absent.", "price": 816.1, "pct": 6.51, "return_vs_entry_pct": 6.51, "return_vs_base_pct": 6.51, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0, "session_day": 12, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$816.10 · +6.51% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "unchanged", "claim": "Reported sustained garetosmab efficacy and no new abnormal bone growth support a focused research question; full results and a durable market path remain unconfirmed.", "summary": "REGN retains a positive tracked gain and a 2.69-point Healthcare lead, but full garetosmab trial results remain unavailable.", "evidence_refs": [ { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "return_vs_entry_pct", "as_of": "2026-10-27T22:42:15.523138Z", "value": 6.51, "rationale": "The tracked gain and sector lead measure the market-response condition, while the handoff still lacks the clinical evidence needed to test the reported findings." } ] }, "price_as_of": "2026-10-27T21:25:08Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 11, "timestamp": "2026-10-27T22:42:39.989953Z", "date": "Session 11 · Oct 27, 2026 · 18:42 NASDAQ", "text": "The tracked gain rose 0.33 points to 6.51%, extending the modest follow-through described in the prior note. Shares added 1.04% on near-average volume and remained 0.11% above the session average price; their 20-session lead over Healthcare widened to 3.79 points. The packet still lacks full garetosmab trial results, so a firmer price path cannot verify the reported clinical findings.", "price": 816.1, "pct": 6.51, "return_vs_entry_pct": 6.51, "return_vs_base_pct": 6.51, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.45, "session_day": 11, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$816.10 · +6.51% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "unassessed", "claim": "The reported 84-week garetosmab results sustain the clinical case for treatment of FOP.", "summary": "Price follow-through is modestly positive, but the current packet does not include the full trial results needed to assess the clinical claim.", "evidence_refs": [] }, "price_as_of": "2026-10-27T20:41:59Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 11, "timestamp": "2026-10-27T16:12:31.688399Z", "date": "Session 11 · Oct 27, 2026 · 12:12 NASDAQ", "text": "Regeneron tracking gain rose 0.77 points to 6.18%; shares were 0.11% above VWAP and 3.18 points ahead of Healthcare over twenty sessions. Volume remained 0.18 times average. The price path holds, but this packet adds no full trial results for garetosmab.", "price": 812.64, "pct": 6.18, "return_vs_entry_pct": 6.06, "return_vs_base_pct": 6.06, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.65, "session_day": 11, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$812.64 · +6.06% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "unassessed", "claim": "Full clinical disclosure supports the reported sustained 84-week garetosmab benefit without new abnormal bone growth.", "summary": "The market record remains positive, but the sparse price update and low volume do not resolve the clinical claim; full trial data remain absent from this packet.", "evidence_refs": [ { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "return_vs_entry_pct", "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:08:16.729992Z", "value": 6.18, "rationale": "The tracked gain increased since the previous public note, supporting the market-response component but not clinical efficacy." }, { "kind": "market_observation", "field": "vwap", "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:08:16.729992Z", "value": 811.75, "rationale": "Low volume limits the confirmation provided by the small session gain." } ] }, "price_as_of": "2026-10-27T15:08:16.729992Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 11, "timestamp": "2026-10-27T11:07:47Z", "date": "Session 11 · Oct 27, 2026 · 07:07 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN remains up 5.41% through session 11 and leads Healthcare by 2.69 points over 20 sessions; the latest regular close was nearly flat on below-average volume.", "price": 807.67, "pct": 5.41, "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.41, "return_vs_base_pct": 5.41, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0, "session_day": 11, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$807.67 · +5.41% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": { "phase": "post", "text": "Aftermarket update: $807.67 (0.00% vs regular close) · Oct 26, 2026 · 17:32 NASDAQ" }, "extended_hours": { "phase": "post", "price": 807.67, "ext_pct": 0.0, "as_of": "2026-10-26T21:32:12Z", "persisted": true }, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": { "schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1", "assessment": "unassessed", "claim": "Garetosmab's reported 84-week efficacy and absence of new abnormal bone growth need full trial and safety data to establish durability.", "summary": "The positive tracking and relative returns describe the market response only. This cut adds no clinical readout or safety detail that can assess the reported trial findings.", "evidence_refs": [] }, "price_as_of": "2026-10-26T21:32:12Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 10, "timestamp": "2026-10-26T23:42:18.610302Z", "date": "Session 10 · Oct 26, 2026 · 19:42 NASDAQ", "text": "Regeneron's tracking gain increased to 5.41% in session 10, up 0.40 percentage point, while shares rose 0.33% to $807.67. The stock leads Healthcare by 2.69 percentage points over 20 sessions, although dollar volume remains below its average. No primary follow-up has yet clarified garetosmab's durability of effect or safety.", "price": 807.67, "pct": 5.41, "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.41, "return_vs_base_pct": 5.41, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.0, "session_day": 10, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$807.67 · +5.41% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-26T21:32:12Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 10, "timestamp": "2026-10-26T21:56:21.557278Z", "date": "Session 10 · Oct 26, 2026 · 17:56 NASDAQ", "text": "The tracked gain for REGN rose 0.40 points to 5.41% on session 10 as the latest quote added 0.33% to $807.67. REGN leads Healthcare by 2.69 points over 20 sessions, although dollar volume was 0.63 of its 20-day average. That relative edge does not resolve the missing primary follow-up on garetosmab: efficacy durability and safety remain open.", "price": 807.67, "pct": 5.41, "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.41, "return_vs_base_pct": 5.41, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.39, "session_day": 10, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$807.67 · +5.41% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-26T20:22:40Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 10, "timestamp": "2026-10-26T16:19:23.844378Z", "date": "Session 10 · Oct 26, 2026 · 12:19 NASDAQ", "text": "On session 10, REGN’s tracked gain eased 0.05 points to 5.01%; the quote was nearly flat but 0.79% below VWAP near the lower range on a fading 0.48 time-adjusted pace. It still leads Healthcare by 2.21 points over 20 sessions, yet the handoff adds no primary trial follow-up on garetosmab efficacy durability or safety.", "price": 804.66, "pct": 5.01, "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.02, "return_vs_base_pct": 5.02, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.04, "session_day": 10, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$804.66 · +5.02% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-26T15:19:48.386219Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 9, "timestamp": "2026-10-23T22:03:12.448080Z", "date": "Session 9 · Oct 23, 2026 · 18:03 NASDAQ", "text": "The tracked gain slipped 0.01 points to 5.06% on session 9, while the latest capture fell 1.72% to $805.02 just below VWAP. REGN now trails Healthcare by 2.88 points over 20 sessions; the reported 84-week garetosmab results remain the thesis catalyst, but this handoff adds no primary trial follow-up to resolve durability or safety.", "price": 805.02, "pct": 5.06, "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.06, "return_vs_base_pct": 5.06, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.23, "session_day": 9, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$805.02 · +5.06% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-23T20:49:07Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 9, "timestamp": "2026-10-23T20:15:35.922028Z", "date": "Session 9 · Oct 23, 2026 · 16:15 NASDAQ", "text": "The tracked REGN gain edged 0.15 points higher to 5.07% on session 9, but shares fell 1.51% to $806.75 below VWAP on 0.46 times usual volume. The 20-session Healthcare lag is 2.59 points. The reported 84-week extension results remain the thesis catalyst, but this handoff adds no trial follow-up, so the market capture does not resolve durability.", "price": 806.75, "pct": 5.07, "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.29, "return_vs_base_pct": 5.29, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.02, "session_day": 9, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$806.75 · +5.29% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-23T19:22:12.987963Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 9, "timestamp": "2026-10-23T14:57:14.591692Z", "date": "Session 9 · Oct 23, 2026 · 10:57 NASDAQ", "text": "The tracked gain fell 1.98 points to 4.92% on session 9 as shares dropped 1.52% to $806.63 below the session average on light activity. The 20-session Healthcare lag narrowed to 2.95 points, while the 84-week Pasatru evidence remains limited by 58 participants and dose-related infections; the current retreat weakens the market response without settling the clinical question.", "price": 806.63, "pct": 4.92, "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.27, "return_vs_base_pct": 5.27, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.63, "session_day": 9, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$806.63 · +5.27% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-23T14:06:04.621810Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 8, "timestamp": "2026-10-22T22:04:34.756486Z", "date": "Session 8 · Oct 22, 2026 · 18:04 NASDAQ", "text": "The tracked gain eased 0.33 points to 6.90% on session 8 even as shares rose 1.67% to $819.09 above VWAP on 1.15 times average volume. The 20-session return still trails Healthcare by 3.83 points. The 84-week Pasatru extension supports sustained efficacy without new abnormal bone growth, but its 58 participants and dose-related infections limit what it establishes.", "price": 819.09, "pct": 6.9, "return_vs_entry_pct": 6.9, "return_vs_base_pct": 6.9, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.33, "session_day": 8, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$819.09 · +6.90% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-22T20:52:32Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 8, "timestamp": "2026-10-22T20:06:02.712232Z", "date": "Session 8 · Oct 22, 2026 · 16:06 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN added 2.08 points to a 7.23% tracked gain on session 8 as shares rose 1.98% to $821.64 above VWAP near the upper range on 0.78 times average volume. The 20-session Healthcare gap narrowed to 3.62 points but remains negative. The reported 84-week Pasatru extension still supports sustained efficacy without new abnormal bone growth, but its 58 participants and dose-related infections limit what it establishes.", "price": 821.64, "pct": 7.23, "return_vs_entry_pct": 7.23, "return_vs_base_pct": 7.23, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.08, "session_day": 8, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$821.64 · +7.23% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-22T19:21:50.306215Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 7, "timestamp": "2026-10-21T21:52:32.762976Z", "date": "Session 7 · Oct 21, 2026 · 17:52 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN gave back 0.23 points of its tracked gain, leaving +5.15% on session 7. The latest quote slipped 0.22% to $805.67, while the available regular-session read remained above VWAP around mid-range on fading activity. The reported 84-week Pasatru results still support the clinical signal, but a 58-person extension and dose-related infections limit what they establish; REGN trails Healthcare by 5.53 points over twenty sessions.", "price": 805.67, "pct": 5.15, "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.15, "return_vs_base_pct": 5.15, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.23, "session_day": 7, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$805.67 · +5.15% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-21T20:36:16Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 7, "timestamp": "2026-10-21T00:36:18.705430Z", "date": "Session 7 · Oct 20, 2026 · 20:36 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain remained 5.38% on session 7 as shares rose 3.25% to $807.48 and held 0.32% above VWAP. The reported 84-week Pasatru results still strengthen the clinical case, but the 58-person extension and dose-related skin infections limit what they establish; Regeneron also trails Healthcare by 5.95 points over 20 sessions, so the market response is not broad relative confirmation.", "price": 807.48, "pct": 5.38, "return_vs_entry_pct": 5.38, "return_vs_base_pct": 5.38, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.98, "session_day": 7, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$807.48 · +5.38% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-20T21:03:15Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 6, "timestamp": "2026-10-20T21:15:10.608020Z", "date": "Session 6 · Oct 20, 2026 · 17:15 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN’s tracked gain increased 3.32 points to +5.38% on session 6; the quote was up 2.29% and 0.32% above VWAP, though time-adjusted volume was 0.66 and fading. Regeneron now reports no new bone lesions from weeks 56–84 in the Pasatru arm versus nine on placebo, a material extension of the clinical case. Dose-related skin infections and a 58-person extension leave the longer-term balance open.", "price": 799.91, "pct": 5.38, "return_vs_entry_pct": 4.4, "return_vs_base_pct": 4.4, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.34, "session_day": 6, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$799.91 · +4.40% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": true, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-353ada6321e9e5246d346b3dc54be990721b3a06ee02140c18e5aa0fbc9cb1a4", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-20T19:32:17.054310Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 5, "timestamp": "2026-10-19T22:19:51.008687Z", "date": "Session 5 · Oct 19, 2026 · 18:19 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain eased 0.40 percentage points to 2.06% as the quote fell 1.10%, finished 0.35% below VWAP near the session low, and traded on 0.66 times average volume. The last complete comparison showed a 5.95-point deficit to Healthcare; today's weaker tape does not resolve the reported 84-week garetosmab findings, which still lack full primary trial results.", "price": 782.04, "pct": 2.06, "return_vs_entry_pct": 2.06, "return_vs_base_pct": 2.06, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.26, "session_day": 5, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$782.04 · +2.06% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-19T20:41:17Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 5, "timestamp": "2026-10-19T20:01:46.203993Z", "date": "Session 5 · Oct 19, 2026 · 16:01 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain fell 0.74 points to 2.46% as the quote dropped 0.85%, finished 0.35% below VWAP near the lower range and traded at 0.40 times normal volume. Its 20-session performance now trails Healthcare by 5.95 points, wider than the prior 4.19-point gap; the reported garetosmab extension still lacks full primary trial results.", "price": 783.98, "pct": 2.46, "return_vs_entry_pct": 2.32, "return_vs_base_pct": 2.32, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.88, "session_day": 5, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$783.98 · +2.32% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-19T19:21:30.182691Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 4, "timestamp": "2026-10-16T22:05:52.650041Z", "date": "Session 4 · Oct 16, 2026 · 18:05 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain added 0.04 points to 3.20% despite a 0.70% decline that finished 0.41% below VWAP near the lower range on 0.88 times normal volume. It trails Healthcare by 4.19 points over 20 sessions, while the reported 84-week garetosmab extension still lacks full primary trial results; the gain holds, but evidence for durable market acceptance is limited.", "price": 790.74, "pct": 3.2, "return_vs_entry_pct": 3.2, "return_vs_base_pct": 3.2, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.03, "session_day": 4, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$790.74 · +3.20% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-16T20:47:20Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 4, "timestamp": "2026-10-16T20:11:11.652957Z", "date": "Session 4 · Oct 16, 2026 · 16:11 NASDAQ", "text": "The tracked gain for REGN eased 0.68 points to 3.16%; the latest quote fell 0.68%, sat 0.41% below the volume-weighted average near the lower range, and traded at 0.48x normal volume. Its 20-session return trails Healthcare by 4.03 points, while the reported 84-week garetosmab extension still lacks full primary trial data.", "price": 790.955, "pct": 3.16, "return_vs_entry_pct": 3.23, "return_vs_base_pct": 3.23, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.68, "session_day": 4, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$790.96 · +3.23% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-16T19:21:22.647785Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 4, "timestamp": "2026-10-16T14:22:44.863836Z", "date": "Session 4 · Oct 16, 2026 · 10:22 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain eased 0.09 points to 3.84% while the latest quote was nearly flat and 0.35% below VWAP. Its 20-session return trails Healthcare by 4.19 points despite the positive tracked gain; the reported 84-week garetosmab result still lacks full primary trial data, so price action does not confirm clinical durability.", "price": 796.18, "pct": 3.84, "return_vs_entry_pct": 3.91, "return_vs_base_pct": 3.91, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.02, "session_day": 4, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$796.18 · +3.91% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-16T14:06:07.820265Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 3, "timestamp": "2026-10-15T22:12:23.608778Z", "date": "Session 3 · Oct 15, 2026 · 18:12 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain eased 0.26 percentage points to 3.93%, despite a 2.31% rise in the latest quote on near-average volume. The reported 84-week garetosmab extension remains a research signal, but full primary trial data are absent and the current price response does not establish clinical durability. Relative performance and follow-through therefore remain open questions.", "price": 796.34, "pct": 3.93, "return_vs_entry_pct": 3.93, "return_vs_base_pct": 3.93, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.34, "session_day": 3, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$796.34 · +3.93% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-15T20:41:00Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 3, "timestamp": "2026-10-15T20:17:55.098316Z", "date": "Session 3 · Oct 15, 2026 · 16:17 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain eased 0.23 points to 4.19% despite a 2.64% session rise; shares ended 0.36% below VWAP in the lower half of the range and still trail Healthcare by 4.30 points over 20 sessions. The reported 84-week garetosmab extension data remains a research signal, but this capture has not repaired relative weakness or established a durable tracking path.", "price": 798.915, "pct": 4.19, "return_vs_entry_pct": 4.27, "return_vs_base_pct": 4.27, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.68, "session_day": 3, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$798.91 · +4.27% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-15T19:21:33.629030Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 3, "timestamp": "2026-10-15T14:50:34.227308Z", "date": "Session 3 · Oct 15, 2026 · 10:50 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked gain improved 2.84 percentage points to 4.42%; the early capture was up 3.32%, 0.39% above VWAP in the upper third of the range, and 3.65 points ahead of SPY. It still trails Healthcare by 3.83 points over 20 sessions, while the reported 84-week garetosmab benefit lacks full durability and safety detail; the active model's sub-41% same-direction reading and wide range leave follow-through unresolved.", "price": 804.17, "pct": 4.42, "return_vs_entry_pct": 4.95, "return_vs_base_pct": 4.95, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 3.37, "session_day": 3, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$804.17 · +4.95% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": true, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-ec6c23f03eb0eee27da92478da811f333698244a70202bfbd2c0ff382dffda63", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-15T14:06:44.673876Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 2, "timestamp": "2026-10-14T21:46:10.258011Z", "date": "Session 2 · Oct 14, 2026 · 17:46 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN tracked gain improved 0.20 point to 1.58%; shares rose 3.35% in the regular session, finished 0.73% above VWAP in the upper range, and were flat after hours. The 20-session return still trails Healthcare by 3.21 points, so one strong session has not reversed the relative lag. The reported 84-week garetosmab result still lacks full durability and safety detail.", "price": 778.36, "pct": 1.58, "return_vs_entry_pct": 1.58, "return_vs_base_pct": 1.58, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.26, "session_day": 2, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$778.36 · +1.58% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-14T20:53:26Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 2, "timestamp": "2026-10-14T20:37:24.096961Z", "date": "Session 2 · Oct 14, 2026 · 16:37 NASDAQ", "text": "Regeneron's tracked return improved 1.03 points to +1.38% as shares rose 3.08%, held 0.47% above VWAP near the upper range and rebounded from the prior note's loss. It still trails Healthcare by 3.33 points over 20 sessions, and the price rebound does not supply the durability and safety detail missing from the reported 84-week garetosmab result.", "price": 776.34, "pct": 1.38, "return_vs_entry_pct": 1.32, "return_vs_base_pct": 1.32, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 0.81, "session_day": 2, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$776.34 · +1.32% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-14T19:41:13.876792Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 2, "timestamp": "2026-10-14T15:10:02.324820Z", "date": "Session 2 · Oct 14, 2026 · 11:10 NASDAQ", "text": "For REGN, the tracked return improved 2.06 points to +0.35% as shares rose 2.26% above VWAP near the high, despite light dollar turnover. It still trails Healthcare by 3.57 points over 20 sessions. The rebound improves the market response but does not settle whether the reported 84-week garetosmab result holds on durability and safety.", "price": 770.16, "pct": 0.35, "return_vs_entry_pct": 0.51, "return_vs_base_pct": 0.51, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 2.22, "session_day": 2, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$770.16 · +0.51% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-14T14:06:37.850462Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 1, "timestamp": "2026-10-13T21:51:30.401363Z", "date": "Session 1 · Oct 13, 2026 · 17:51 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked loss widened 0.32 percentage points to 1.71% as shares fell 1.27%, held just above VWAP near midrange, and traded on dollar turnover of 0.81 times its 20-day average. Its 20-session performance trails Healthcare by 3.90 points; the reported 84-week garetosmab result still needs full trial evidence on durability and safety.", "price": 753.12, "pct": -1.71, "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.71, "return_vs_base_pct": -1.71, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.25, "session_day": 1, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$753.12 · -1.71% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-13T20:57:45Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 1, "timestamp": "2026-10-13T20:08:22.176990Z", "date": "Session 1 · Oct 13, 2026 · 16:08 NASDAQ", "text": "Regeneron’s tracked loss held at 1.39% as shares fell 1.02% but remained above VWAP around midrange on 0.51 times average volume. The reported 84-week garetosmab extension still needs full trial evidence on durability and safety; this quiet, mixed position does not establish a durable path.", "price": 755.015, "pct": -1.39, "return_vs_entry_pct": -1.46, "return_vs_base_pct": -1.46, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.1, "session_day": 1, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$755.01 · -1.46% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-13T19:24:51.998952Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 1, "timestamp": "2026-10-13T15:29:23.183694Z", "date": "Session 1 · Oct 13, 2026 · 11:29 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's tracked loss widened 0.94 percentage points to 1.39% as shares fell 2.12%, trading 0.69% below the day's volume-weighted average price near the lower range on light early volume. Its 20-session performance trails Healthcare by 4.85 points. The pullback challenges the initial market response, while the reported 84-week garetosmab result still awaits full trial evidence on durability and safety.", "price": 746.61, "pct": -1.39, "return_vs_entry_pct": -2.56, "return_vs_base_pct": -2.56, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.11, "session_day": 1, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$746.61 · -2.56% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-13T14:06:26.349567Z", "vwap_as_of": null }, { "day": 0, "timestamp": "2026-10-12T22:08:36.044795Z", "date": "Session 0 · Oct 12, 2026 · 18:08 NASDAQ", "text": "REGN's first tracked session sits at a 0.45% loss even though the later market capture shows shares at $762.81, up 2.18% for the day; no intraday benchmark is available. The stock trails Healthcare by 6.43 points over 20 sessions, and the price move does not settle whether the reported 84-week garetosmab benefit will prove durable or safe.", "price": 762.81, "pct": -0.45, "return_vs_entry_pct": -0.45, "return_vs_base_pct": -0.45, "return_vs_prior_pct": null, "previous_regular_close": null, "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.45, "session_day": 0, "reference_price": 766.22, "reference_text": "$762.81 · -0.45% from $766.22 base", "timing": "", "market_marker": null, "extended_hours": null, "relevant": false, "active_relevant": false, "terminal_closure": false, "transcript_anchor": "", "related_links": [], "thesis_change": null, "price_as_of": "2026-10-12T20:56:21Z", "vwap_as_of": null } ], "observed_outcomes": [ { "label": "+1 sessions", "status": "complete", "return": -1.71, "reference_text": "-1.71% from $766.22 base", "price": 753.12, "price_basis": null, "observation_date": null, "updated": "Oct 13, 2026 · 17:06 NASDAQ", "mfe": -0.08, "mae": -2.96 }, { "label": "+5 sessions", "status": "complete", "return": 2.06, "reference_text": "+2.06% from $766.22 base", "price": 782.04, "price_basis": null, "observation_date": null, "updated": "Oct 19, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQ", "mfe": 5.65, "mae": -2.96 }, { "label": "+10 sessions", "status": "complete", "return": 5.41, "reference_text": "+5.41% from $766.22 base", "price": 807.67, "price_basis": null, "observation_date": null, "updated": "Oct 26, 2026 · 17:02 NASDAQ", "mfe": 7.74, "mae": -2.96 }, { "label": "+15 sessions", "status": "pending", "return": null, "reference_text": "", "price": null, "price_basis": null, "observation_date": null, "updated": "", "mfe": null, "mae": null }, { "label": "+20 sessions", "status": "pending", "return": null, "reference_text": "", "price": null, "price_basis": null, "observation_date": null, "updated": "", "mfe": null, "mae": null }, { "label": "+25 sessions", "status": "pending", "return": null, "reference_text": "", "price": null, "price_basis": null, "observation_date": null, "updated": "", "mfe": null, "mae": null }, { "label": "+30 sessions", "status": "pending", "return": null, "reference_text": "", "price": null, "price_basis": null, "observation_date": null, "updated": "", "mfe": null, "mae": null } ], "market_comparison": { "schema_version": "public-market-comparison.v1", "publication_key": "20261012:midday:REGN", "status": "awaiting_regular_close", "methodology": { "price_phase": "official_regular_close", "candidate_return": "close_price / previous_regular_close - 1", "benchmark_return": "close_price / previous_regular_close - 1", "return_from_publication_baseline": "regular_close_price / same_instrument_baseline_price - 1; only when the baseline quote timestamp is at or after publication and before the regular close", "excess": "candidate_session_return_pct - benchmark_session_return_pct", "alignment": "same US market day and regular-close phase", "session_range": { "start": 0, "end": 30 }, "missing_data": "unavailable; never filled from another date" }, "sessions": [], "coverage": { "sessions_observed": 0, "sessions_complete": 0, "sessions_partial": 0 }, "updated_at": null }, "candidates": [ { "symbol": "TRAX", "name": "First Tracks Biotherapeutics, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "tradingview_url": "https://es.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NASDAQ%3ATRAX&interval=60", "score": 5, "price": 34.71, "change": 8.97, "volume": 4338510, "avg_volume_3m": 721889, "volume_ratio": 6.01, "rsi": 33.16, "ema_trend": "33.31 > 35.29 > 37.76", "position_52w_pct": 69.25, "vwap": 36.38, "vwap_distance_pct": null, "vwap_state": "below", "facts": [], "role": "alternative", "selected": false, "reason": "alternative" }, { "symbol": "MIRM", "name": "Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "tradingview_url": "https://es.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NASDAQ%3AMIRM&interval=60", "score": null, "price": 86.18, "change": null, "volume": 688069.0, "avg_volume_3m": 705140.0, "volume_ratio": 0.98, "rsi": 37.59, "ema_trend": "84.44 > 87.76 > 94.55", "position_52w_pct": 66.47, "vwap": 84.89, "vwap_distance_pct": null, "vwap_state": "above", "facts": [], "role": "alternative", "selected": false, "reason": "alternative" }, { "symbol": "STE", "name": "STERIS plc", "exchange": "NYSE", "tradingview_url": "https://es.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYSE%3ASTE&interval=60", "score": null, "price": 218.82, "change": null, "volume": 433165.0, "avg_volume_3m": 681484.0, "volume_ratio": 0.64, "rsi": 72.53, "ema_trend": "212.42 > 212.95 > 216.61", "position_52w_pct": 81.2, "vwap": 218.3, "vwap_distance_pct": null, "vwap_state": "above", "facts": [], "role": "alternative", "selected": false, "reason": "alternative" } ], "news": [ { "title": "SEC 8-K filing", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/872589/000110465926113895/tm2627077d1_8k.htm" }, { "title": "SEC 8-K filing", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/872589/000110465926112340/tm2626090d1_8k.htm" }, { "title": "Regeneron’s Rare Disease Drug Shows Zero New Abnormal Bone Growth In Extended Trial – REGN Stock Heads For Best Day In Over A Month", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d457d42639a5330aff8fd807df942d1df29a462359879b2851d08c94f7fcfd4a" }, { "title": "Discover which S&P500 stocks are making waves on Monday.", "url": "https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=aa9e4c8a2b6d82815ed32d4c2f7a81ce11c4a5cf84eb068cff96ca2163909ff0" } ], "transcript_url": null, "initial_transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-a01dd0e2352f2ba406af70f49dbaba10e70b553d367d9b0666739696506019a1", "chart_url": null, "secondary_chart_url": null, "forecast_chart_url": null, "methodology_url": "https://trydingday.com/methodology/", "track_record_url": "https://trydingday.com/track-record/", "market_timezone": "America/New_York" } }