VSTM episode 20261014_VSTM_MIDDAY
Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.
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"exchange": "NASDAQCM",
"name": "Verastem, Inc."
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"date": "October 14, 2026",
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"session_tag": "midday",
"label": "Market coverage",
"try_label": "Raw Try",
"public_status": "Raw Try",
"why_today": "Verastem’s initial VS-7375 response data create a specific clinical question worth following. The reported rates are early evidence, and the stock’s move had faded by the last observation before the review cutoff. The panel selects Raw Try, not Try of the Day.",
"entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: Verastem’s reported initial VS-7375 clinical response data provide a specific research question. The response rates are early evidence; the supplied packet does not establish response duration, patient counts, safety detail, approval, or commercial prospects. Invalidation boundary: A primary disclosure materially revises or qualifies the reported response rates, or the next observed session gives back the event move and fails to recover the supplied $7.45 prior regular close.",
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"catalyst": "Bending Spoons, Liquidia, Verastem And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On Wednesday",
"sector": "Healthcare",
"exchange": "NasdaqCM",
"sec_signal": "INSIDER_SELL (A/S)"
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"status": "Raw Try",
"summary": "Verastem’s initial VS-7375 response data create a specific clinical question worth following. The reported rates are early evidence, and the stock’s move had faded by the last observation before the review cutoff. The panel selects Raw Try, not Try of the Day.",
"views": [
{
"name": "Elena Vartanyan",
"role": "independent statistical auditor",
"icon": "🎯",
"view": "The day opened against a difficult backdrop: September inflation was higher, real hourly earnings fell, and the fresh market report had U.S. stocks lower. Our sealed benchmark snapshot was already outside its own freshness interval by the cutoff, so it frames the day without telling us what any one company will do.",
"reasoning": "I support VSTM Raw Try. The next disclosure can test the clinical claim, and the next session can test whether the price holds its supplied prior close. That is a bounded research case, not a claim that the stock will rise."
},
{
"name": "Priya Nandakumar",
"role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
"icon": "🛡️",
"view": "The sealed news cut also flags tight gasoil supply and possible further diesel-price pressure. That can matter to household and business costs, but we have no evidence tying it directly to any of these five cases.",
"reasoning": "GENK’s restaurant sale has terms to investigate, but its supplied price was 16.67% below VWAP despite exceptional turnover. TCRT’s last pre-cut observation was down 18.481846%, also well below VWAP, and the linked market capitalization does not reconcile cleanly with the reported $350 million placement."
},
{
"name": "Nate Brooks",
"role": "market structure and timing analyst",
"icon": "📈",
"view": "The breadth proxy points in the same cautious direction for its covered group, though it is not the whole market. I would use that as context, not as a rule for picking a name.",
"reasoning": "I dissent from Raw Try and prefer Caught: No Try. VSTM has a useful clinical question, but the missing study detail and faded move leave me unconvinced that it clears the research bar for today."
},
{
"name": "Marcus Feld",
"role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
"icon": "🦊",
"view": "VSTM has the clearest clinical event: the supplied report gives confirmed response rates of 41% in the broader second-line-or-later pancreatic cancer group and 36% in the third- or fourth-line group. A response rate is the share of patients whose tumors shrank enough to meet the study’s response definition.",
"reasoning": "I support the same resolution. The specific study readout gives VSTM a more useful follow-up question than the unresolved transaction effects in the alternatives."
},
{
"name": "Kenji Osei",
"role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
"icon": "🧠",
"view": "The packet lists a same-day SEC filing, but its summary does not give the patient counts behind those percentages, how long responses lasted, or the safety detail. Those omissions limit what the rates can establish.",
"reasoning": "I also support Raw Try, while keeping the missing patient counts, duration, and safety detail explicit. Model outputs were unavailable across the batch; that absence is a limit on confidence, not evidence against VSTM."
}
],
"conviction": {
"status_phrase": "recorded",
"basis": "These are committee confidence allocations, not return probabilities. The traceable VSTM event and concrete next checks support Raw Try; its fading tape and incomplete clinical detail support the counter-case and leave meaningful uncertainty.",
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"resolution_pct": 58.0,
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"status": "complete",
"consulted_voice_ids": [
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"kenji",
"priya",
"nate"
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"summary": "The day paired a gasoline-led inflation increase and weaker real purchasing power with pressure across the broad market. Energy-supply risks and the gap between ambitious AI investment plans and available power added competing forces. The older benchmark snapshot and limited breadth proxy warrant care about timing and coverage; none of this explains a company’s clinical results.",
"long_read": "The strongest day-level tension was between rising prices and weakening purchasing power. The BLS reported September CPI up 0.6% month over month, with gasoline contributing over half the rise, while real average hourly earnings fell 0.5% from August. The Associated Press reported U.S. stocks lower after the inflation release. In the sealed market context, the benchmark snapshot was already beyond its stated freshness interval by the cutoff; a separate breadth proxy showed pressure in its covered group but was not a measure of the whole market.\n\nEnergy supply made the inflation story more than a single data release: the IEA warned that tight gasoil conditions could push delivered diesel prices higher again, and the IMF said higher energy prices widen the growth gap between exporters and importers. The room pushed back on turning those observations into a universal company-cost claim; transmission and exposure matter. Another tension was financial ambition against practical capacity. The sealed cut noted leveraged ETFs’ record share of fund launches and tougher financing and power conditions for AI infrastructure. Those current sources cover product mix and reported financing or power constraints; they do not measure today's fund flows or delivered AI capacity. The discussion returned to the VSTM case only to keep the categories straight: a macro backdrop can shape risk and eventual commercial questions, but it does not validate or invalidate a clinical result. The formal Raw Try remains sealed.",
"transcript": [
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "There are two different pressures in the BLS numbers. September CPI rose 0.6%, with gasoline doing more than half the lifting; real hourly earnings fell 0.5%. “Real” means adjusted for inflation, so measured buying power slipped.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm",
"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.htm"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "And the IEA’s gasoil warning gives that fuel line a supply mechanism: tight conditions could push delivered diesel higher again. That’s a transmission risk, not permission to pin every company’s costs on fuel.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "Good. The household squeeze is observed; the margin math isn’t. We don’t have company-by-company exposure here, so let’s not make an energy invoice appear out of thin air.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm",
"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.htm"
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{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "The tape did react. AP had U.S. stocks lower after CPI, but the sealed benchmark snapshot was already old by the review cutoff. Those are different clocks; don’t stitch them into one exact late-day reading.",
"source_urls": [
"https://apnews.com/article/stock-markets-earnings-bonds-artificial-intelligence-704d3190f0fba2908df07c85f26346ec"
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{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "And the breadth proxy covered a defined sample, not every U.S. listing. It showed more decliners than advancers in that group. Useful for the session’s tone, limited for claims about the whole market."
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "The IMF’s point is a useful complication: higher energy prices can widen the growth gap between exporters and importers. That does not make every exporter a winner or tell us which company can pass costs on.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/IMFNews/status/2110109327478657051"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "The fund-launch statistic is easy to inflate into a flow story. A record share of new launches being leveraged ETFs tells us about product mix, not that investors poured record dollars into them today.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2110067872051425535"
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},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "Exactly. A product launch is not a market-flow print. A leveraged label cannot explain today’s tape by itself.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2110067872051425535"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "The day's AI-financing note points to power and funding constraints. Ambition on one side; deliverable capacity on the other.",
"source_urls": [
"https://x.com/jiahanjimliu/status/2110043779159969806"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "Fair. A financing outlook doesn't settle grid connection or delivered capacity. I was treating an ambition statement as physical proof."
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "That distinction matters for VSTM too. A harsher economic backdrop may shape later funding or commercial questions, but it does not tell us whether a clinical response lasts."
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "And a broad selloff doesn’t grade a trial. Price action, the macro tape, and patient outcomes can share a calendar without being the same evidence.",
"source_urls": [
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}
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"https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.htm",
"https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-october-2026",
"https://apnews.com/article/stock-markets-earnings-bonds-artificial-intelligence-704d3190f0fba2908df07c85f26346ec",
"https://x.com/IMFNews/status/2110109327478657051",
"https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2110067872051425535",
"https://x.com/jiahanjimliu/status/2110043779159969806"
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"headline": "September CPI rose 0.6% month over month; gasoline drove over half the increase",
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"publisher": "The Kobeissi Letter",
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"url": "https://x.com/jiahanjimliu/status/2110043779159969806",
"publisher": "Jiahan Jim Liu",
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"publisher": "Financial Times Energy",
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"updates": [
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"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-10-23T22:03:41.385619Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Oct 23, 2026 · 18:03 NASDAQCM",
"text": "On session 7 the tracked gain rose 2.13 points to 15.67%, while the latest capture edged 0.20% lower to $10.04 but remained just above VWAP. The 20-session Healthcare lead is still 24.69 points; that relative strength supports the market side, but early VS-7375 response rates still lack duration, patient counts and fuller safety detail.",
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{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-10-23T20:15:48.182013Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Oct 23, 2026 · 16:15 NASDAQCM",
"text": "The tracked VSTM gain increased only 0.12 points to 13.54% on session 7. Shares slipped 1.84% to $9.88 but remained above VWAP on 0.76 times usual volume, while the 20-session Healthcare lead is 22.82 points. Strong relative performance persists, but early VS-7375 response rates do not establish duration or patient counts; the prepared packet leaves that clinical confirmation open.",
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{
"day": 7,
"timestamp": "2026-10-23T14:57:42.025074Z",
"date": "Session 7 · Oct 23, 2026 · 10:57 NASDAQCM",
"text": "The tracked gain dropped 2.48 points to 13.42% on session 7 as shares eased to $9.99 below the session average on very light activity. Its 20-session lead over Healthcare grew to 23.63 points, preserving relative strength, but the reported early VS-7375 response still lacks duration, patient counts and safety detail; the November 5 results date supplies a checkpoint, not an outcome.",
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{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-10-22T22:04:39.090327Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Oct 22, 2026 · 18:04 NASDAQCM",
"text": "The tracked gain grew 1.50 points to 15.90% on session 6 as shares rose 9.23% to $10.06 above VWAP near the high on 1.91 times average volume. The 20-session lead over Healthcare widened to 22.24 points. The November 5 results date adds a checkpoint but no new clinical outcome, so the strong tape does not settle durability.",
"price": 10.06,
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{
"day": 6,
"timestamp": "2026-10-22T19:43:22.293524Z",
"date": "Session 6 · Oct 22, 2026 · 15:43 NASDAQCM",
"text": "Verastem scheduled Q3 results and a business update for November 5, adding a dated checkpoint but no new clinical outcome. On session 6, VSTM's tracked gain widened 8.29 points to 14.40%; shares rose 7.60% to $9.91, above VWAP near the session high on 1.49 times average volume. Its 20-session Healthcare lead reached 20.14 points and price remains above $7.45. The model gives only 40.1% same-direction probability through session 15, with a near-flat median and a wide range, so it does not explain the strong tape or settle clinical durability.",
"price": 9.91,
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"reference_text": "$9.91 · +15.10% from $8.61 base",
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{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-10-21T21:52:34.501937Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Oct 21, 2026 · 17:52 NASDAQCM",
"text": "VSTM narrowed its tracked gain by 1.49 points to +6.11% on session 5. The latest quote fell 1.39% to $9.21; the available VWAP read was 2.67% below, near the range low, with time-adjusted activity easing. Its twenty-session lead over Healthcare remains 6.58 points, but this pullback does not resolve early VS-7375 response duration and safety or the dilution from the $250 million offering.",
"price": 9.21,
"pct": 6.11,
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{
"day": 5,
"timestamp": "2026-10-21T00:36:28.290189Z",
"date": "Session 5 · Oct 20, 2026 · 20:36 NASDAQCM",
"text": "VSTM's tracked gain held at 7.60% on session 5; shares rose 8.35% to $9.34 and finished 1.43% above VWAP, while time-adjusted activity was only 0.29. The initial VS-7375 response data remain early, with duration and safety unresolved, and the $250 million offering at $8 adds dilution; the strong tape improves follow-through but does not establish clinical validation.",
"price": 9.34,
"pct": 7.6,
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{
"day": 4,
"timestamp": "2026-10-20T21:22:05.060621Z",
"date": "Session 4 · Oct 20, 2026 · 17:22 NASDAQCM",
"text": "VSTM’s tracked return rose 8.29 points to +7.60% on session 4; shares gained 7.60% to $9.28 and held 1.43% above VWAP, with time-adjusted activity at 0.29. Verastem’s Oct. 14 update reported a 41% confirmed response rate (9/22) in 2L+ pancreatic cancer after median follow-up of 6.4 months; the phase 1/2 results remain early. The company priced a $250m offering at $8 per share to support development and general needs, increasing dilution. The rebound improves the tape while clinical validation remains unresolved.",
"price": 9.275,
"pct": 7.6,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 7.72,
"return_vs_base_pct": 7.72,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 7.6,
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"reference_price": 8.61,
"reference_text": "$9.28 · +7.72% from $8.61 base",
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"relevant": true,
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{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-10-19T22:20:12.266399Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Oct 19, 2026 · 18:20 NASDAQCM",
"text": "VSTM's tracked result fell 1.84 percentage points, turning a 1.15% gain into a 0.69% loss, while shares slipped 0.35% but stayed 1.01% above VWAP on 1.11 times average volume. Price is just below the .66 reference; the earlier 6.16-point Healthcare lead is the last complete comparison, and early response data still do not establish durability or safety.",
"price": 8.62,
"pct": -0.69,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 0.12,
"return_vs_base_pct": 0.12,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.26,
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"reference_price": 8.61,
"reference_text": "$8.62 · +0.12% from $8.61 base",
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-19T20:38:54Z",
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{
"day": 3,
"timestamp": "2026-10-19T20:02:00.639809Z",
"date": "Session 3 · Oct 19, 2026 · 16:02 NASDAQCM",
"text": "VSTM's tracked return improved 1.50 points to a 1.15% gain as the quote rose 1.91%, held 0.97% above VWAP and traded at 0.79 times normal volume; it remains above the $7.45 reference. Its 20-session lead over Healthcare is 6.16 points, but the initial VS-7375 response data still lack evidence here on duration, patient counts and safety.",
"price": 8.815,
"pct": 1.15,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 2.38,
"return_vs_base_pct": 2.38,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 1.92,
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"reference_text": "$8.81 · +2.38% from $8.61 base",
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-19T19:21:30.182691Z",
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{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-10-16T22:05:54.948569Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Oct 16, 2026 · 18:05 NASDAQCM",
"text": "VSTM's tracked return fell 1.04 points to a 0.35% loss after a 6.28% decline on 2.03 times normal volume, closing 1.86% below VWAP near the lower range. It still leads Healthcare by 11.32 points over 20 sessions and remains above 7.45, so the published boundary holds; this sharp retracement weakens the market response while the early clinical data remain untested for durability.",
"price": 8.65,
"pct": -0.35,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 0.46,
"return_vs_base_pct": 0.46,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.34,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 8.61,
"reference_text": "$8.65 · +0.46% from $8.61 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-16T20:59:40Z",
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},
{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-10-16T19:44:08.184742Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Oct 16, 2026 · 15:44 NASDAQCM",
"text": "VSTM tracked gain fell 3.69 points to 0.69%; the latest quote dropped 5.04% and sits 1.85% below the session average price weighted by volume. The current price remains above the original $7.45 reference and its 20-session lead over Healthcare is 12.94 points, so the market case weakened without crossing the published price boundary; the initial response data are still early.",
"price": 8.765,
"pct": 0.69,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 1.8,
"return_vs_base_pct": 1.8,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.12,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 8.61,
"reference_text": "$8.77 · +1.80% from $8.61 base",
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"relevant": true,
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{
"day": 2,
"timestamp": "2026-10-16T14:22:44.863836Z",
"date": "Session 2 · Oct 16, 2026 · 10:22 NASDAQCM",
"text": "VSTM's tracked gain fell 1.96 points to 4.38%, and the quote dropped 4.93%, 1.01% below VWAP. Its 20-session lead over Healthcare remains 12.31 points, but today's reversal weakens the event response; the initial VS-7375 summary still omits patient counts, response duration and safety detail, so approval or commercial value remains unestablished.",
"price": 8.775,
"pct": 4.38,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 1.92,
"return_vs_base_pct": 1.92,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -5.28,
"session_day": 2,
"reference_price": 8.61,
"reference_text": "$8.78 · +1.92% from $8.61 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-16T14:06:07.820265Z",
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{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-10-15T22:12:44.862688Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Oct 15, 2026 · 18:12 NASDAQCM",
"text": "VSTM's tracked return edged up 0.12 percentage points to 6.34% after another strong quote gain of 19.71% on 6.1 times average volume; post-market trading slipped 0.87%. High participation sustains the market reaction, but the initial VS-7375 response data still lack patient counts, response duration and safety detail. Those early findings do not establish approval or commercial value.",
"price": 9.23,
"pct": 6.34,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 7.2,
"return_vs_base_pct": 7.2,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.81,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 8.61,
"reference_text": "$9.23 · +7.20% from $8.61 base",
"timing": "",
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"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
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"price_as_of": "2026-10-15T21:20:25Z",
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},
{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-10-15T19:49:41.893077Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Oct 15, 2026 · 15:49 NASDAQCM",
"text": "VSTM's tracked return improved 14.28 points to a 6.22% gain as shares rose 20.62% in the late-session capture, held 5.56% above their volume-weighted average, and traded 4.67 times normal volume; its 20-session Healthcare lead widened to 17.75 points. The market case strengthened, but the initial VS-7375 response data still lack patient counts, duration and safety detail, while a near-even, wide model range does not settle continuation.",
"price": 9.3,
"pct": 6.22,
"return_vs_entry_pct": 8.01,
"return_vs_base_pct": 8.01,
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"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 13.24,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 8.61,
"reference_text": "$9.30 · +8.01% from $8.61 base",
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},
{
"day": 1,
"timestamp": "2026-10-15T14:53:22.603764Z",
"date": "Session 1 · Oct 15, 2026 · 10:53 NASDAQCM",
"text": "VSTM's tracked loss narrowed 3.12 points to 8.06% as shares rose 5.84% in the early capture, 1.81% above VWAP near the top of the range; it outperformed SPY by 6.17 points, and its 20-session lead over Healthcare widened to 1.98 points. Price remains above the $7.45 reference, but initial VS-7375 response rates still lack patient counts, response duration and safety detail; the model's near-even, broad range leaves follow-through unresolved.",
"price": 8.16,
"pct": -8.06,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -5.23,
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"change_vs_prior_session_pct": 5.22,
"session_day": 1,
"reference_price": 8.61,
"reference_text": "$8.16 · -5.23% from $8.61 base",
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{
"day": 0,
"timestamp": "2026-10-14T21:46:14.845781Z",
"date": "Session 0 · Oct 14, 2026 · 17:46 NASDAQCM",
"text": "VSTM tracked loss widened 2.77 points to 11.18%; shares rose 3.49% in the regular session and another 2.72% after hours, but remained 6.20% below VWAP. The 20-session lead over Healthcare is 1.64 points. The initial VS-7375 response rates remain early evidence without patient counts, response duration, or safety detail; the price rebound does not supply those missing clinical facts.",
"price": 7.71,
"pct": -11.18,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -10.45,
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"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -2.38,
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"reference_price": 8.61,
"reference_text": "$7.71 · -10.45% from $8.61 base",
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"text": "Aftermarket update: $7.92 (+2.72% vs regular close) · Oct 14, 2026 · 17:19 NASDAQCM"
},
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"price": 7.92,
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{
"day": 0,
"timestamp": "2026-10-14T20:11:42.000162Z",
"date": "Session 0 · Oct 14, 2026 · 16:11 NASDAQCM",
"text": "Since publication, VSTM's tracked return stands at -8.41%; the quote has faded from +16.22% at the initial capture to +6.24% versus the $7.45 prior close, and now sits 3.71% below VWAP. Today's volume is 13.67 times its average and the 20-session Healthcare lead is 4.98 points, while the initial clinical response rates still lack patient counts, duration and safety detail. No session-15 estimate is available yet.",
"price": 7.915,
"pct": -8.41,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -8.07,
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"updated": "Oct 15, 2026 · 17:05 NASDAQCM",
"mfe": 12.1,
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{
"label": "+5 sessions",
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"facts": [
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"title": "SEC 8-K filing",
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}