AHT episode 20261021_AHT_MIDDAY

Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.

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  "public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/coverage/aht/2026-10-21/midday/",
  "published_at": "2026-10-21T21:07:44.447538Z",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-26T15:52:05.062883Z",
  "lifecycle": {
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    "stage": "tracking"
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  "instrument": {
    "type": "equity",
    "symbol": "AHT",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "name": "Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc."
  },
  "technical_reference": {
    "status": "ok",
    "reference_price": 2.56,
    "model_downside_reference": 2.29,
    "model_upside_scenario_1": 2.83,
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    "atr_14": 0.18,
    "method": "reference_price_plus_minus_atr14"
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  "public_content": {
    "date": "October 21, 2026",
    "generated_at": "2026-10-21T21:07:44.447538Z",
    "original_published_at": null,
    "session_tag": "midday",
    "label": "Market coverage",
    "try_label": "Raw Try",
    "public_status": "Raw Try",
    "why_today": "Ashford Hospitality Trust announced a $17 million advisory-fee waiver, a share-purchase commitment, and termination of its ATM share-sale program. Seven eligible observations show a large one-session repricing, with the last pre-cut reading at $2.555 and a reported change of +42.74%. The evidence supports a Raw Try follow-up, while the terms' impact and persistence remain open.",
    "entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: If Ashford's announced fee waiver, share-purchase commitment, and ATM termination are implemented on their disclosed terms, and the market response persists beyond this session, AHT merits a 15-session research follow-up. The current evidence supports investigation, not a claim that the full path is already established. Invalidation boundary: A follow-up issuer or SEC disclosure contradicts or withdraws the announced terms, or early follow-up observations reverse through the $2.555 S0 reference while showing sustained weakness against the same-time broad market.",
    "reference_price": 2.56,
    "scanner": {
      "price": 2.56,
      "reference": 2.56,
      "score": null,
      "score_version": "legacy research",
      "change": 43.3,
      "volume": 27849659.0,
      "average_volume": 26435.0,
      "volume_ratio": 1054.67,
      "rsi": 61.97,
      "ema_trend": "2.06 > 2.22 > 2.56",
      "position_52w": 48.49,
      "atr_14": 0.18,
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      "vwap_reading": {
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      "relative_strength": {
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        "index": "SPY",
        "index_chg_pct": 0.46,
        "status": "normal"
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        "status": "exceptional",
        "today_vol": 27849659
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      "extension": {
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        "dist_atr": 1.86,
        "ema_ref": 2.22,
        "status": "healthy"
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        "atr_pct": 7.05,
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        "status": "clear"
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      "short_pct_float": 4.24,
      "days_to_cover": 14.79,
      "catalyst": "Why Super Micro Computer Shares Are Trading Higher By 13%; Here Are 20 Stocks Moving Premarket",
      "sector": "Real Estate",
      "exchange": "NYSE",
      "sec_signal": null
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    "levels": {
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      "downside": 2.29,
      "upside_1": 2.83,
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    "review": {
      "score": null,
      "status": "Raw Try",
      "summary": "Ashford Hospitality Trust announced a $17 million advisory-fee waiver, a share-purchase commitment, and termination of its ATM share-sale program. Seven eligible observations show a large one-session repricing, with the last pre-cut reading at $2.555 and a reported change of +42.74%. The evidence supports a Raw Try follow-up, while the terms' impact and persistence remain open.",
      "views": [
        {
          "name": "Elena Vartanyan",
          "role": "independent statistical auditor",
          "icon": "🎯",
          "view": "The shared snapshot was broadly constructive before the open, though uneven across the major indexes. It is more than six hours old at this cut, and validated breadth is unavailable. That tells us how the morning began; it cannot confirm the afternoon.",
          "reasoning": "The last point pairs 27,849,659 shares with a three-month average of 26,435. That average is a comparison with past trading, not a measure of order-book depth or proof of lasting demand. I support AHT as Raw Try because the next check is concrete; I do not support Try."
        },
        {
          "name": "Marcus Feld",
          "role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
          "icon": "🦊",
          "view": "AHT has an actual issuer-announced mechanism: a $17 million advisory-fee waiver, a share-purchase commitment, and termination of its ATM program. An ATM program lets an issuer sell new shares into the market over time; ending it could remove one source of new share supply if the termination takes effect. We still lack the terms' duration and financial impact.",
          "reasoning": "SPCX and YMAT had weaker intraday structure; TNGX's clinical result was only in secondary reporting. MMM has a primary AWS collaboration announcement, but the supplied plan gives no deployment scale or revenue contribution and its eligible response faded. Those are real alternatives. I still support AHT Raw because its event and market response are both testable."
        },
        {
          "name": "Nate Brooks",
          "role": "market structure and timing analyst",
          "icon": "📈",
          "view": "The eligible AHT prices went from $2.515 to a high of $2.5799, then the last point was $2.555. Those are price levels; the reported change at that last point was +42.737434%. Big session, yes. A fifteen-session path, no.",
          "reasoning": "MEDP is my Raw alternative. Its observation was above a $649.76 VWAP—the session's average traded price weighted by volume—so the price was above the average transaction level at that point. It also had an upward trend and 2.11x its average volume. But earnings were still pending at this cut, so that is not a Try case."
        },
        {
          "name": "Priya Nandakumar",
          "role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
          "icon": "🛡️",
          "view": "That scale is exactly why I would close the day. A huge one-session repricing against such a small average can be fragile, and we do not know the financial effect of the announced terms. I vote Caught: No Try.",
          "reasoning": ""
        },
        {
          "name": "Kenji Osei",
          "role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
          "icon": "🧠",
          "view": "Clock check: AHT's seven points through 18:55:37 UTC are before the 18:56:42 UTC cut. The later linked quote and market-evidence captures are after it, so I excluded them. The eligible sequence is enough to test a disclosed event, not enough to project fifteen sessions. I support AHT as Raw Try.",
          "reasoning": "The decision is explicit: Elena, Marcus, and I support AHT as Raw Try; Nate prefers MEDP as Raw Try; Priya supports Catch. No one supports Try of the Day. The result is a majority with dissent, with the full fifteen-session path still open."
        }
      ],
      "conviction": {
        "status_phrase": "recorded",
        "basis": "This is confidence in the editorial route, not a return probability. A dated issuer event and eligible response support a testable AHT case; the one-session horizon, unquantified economics, and explicit MEDP and Catch objections keep the conclusion bounded.",
        "risk": "",
        "resolution_pct": 58.0,
        "counter_case_pct": 24.0,
        "unresolved_pct": 18.0
      },
      "context_roundtable": {
        "mode": "coffee",
        "status": "complete",
        "consulted_voice_ids": [
          "elena",
          "marcus",
          "kenji",
          "priya",
          "nate"
        ],
        "summary": "The sealed premarket snapshot was mixed and more than six hours old by the decision cut; market breadth was unavailable. Later reporting described a positive close led by selected earnings stories, alongside uneven company reactions and rate and energy cross-currents. This context does not recalculate the sealed publication.",
        "long_read": "The shared snapshot was captured at 2026-10-21T12:22:56Z, in the premarket, while the effective decision cut was 2026-10-21T18:56:42Z. The snapshot recorded the S&P 500 at +0.28%, the Nasdaq 100 at −0.13%, the Russell 2000 at +1.65%, and the VIX at 17.33 with a +0.12% change. Breadth—how many individual stocks advanced versus declined—was unavailable, so these index readings do not establish how widely stocks participated.\n\nA later Associated Press report, published after the Desk cut, described Wednesday’s close as positive: the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, the Dow 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite 1.1%. It attributed moves to company results and expectations, with winners and losers even among companies reporting stronger profits. The same report noted unsettled oil prices and Treasury yields. Those later facts add day context; they were not available at the sealed cut. For AHT, this backdrop helps frame the environment, but it supplies no hotel-specific booking or operating result and does not change the sealed thesis or resolution.",
        "transcript": [
          {
            "speaker_id": "elena",
            "text": "Let’s anchor the clock. The shared snapshot was captured at 12:22 UTC, premarket, and was over six hours old at the decision cut. It recorded the S&P 500 at +0.28%, the Nasdaq 100 at −0.13%, and the Russell 2000 at +1.65%. Breadth means how many individual stocks rose versus fell; that measure was unavailable, so the index rows cannot tell us how widespread participation was."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "marcus",
            "text": "A later AP close, after the Desk cut, puts the S&P 500 up 0.6%, the Dow up 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 1.1%. Some earnings reports helped, but Netflix fell 5.3% despite a profit beat after its revenue outlook disappointed. The market was judging what results might mean next, not just whether a company made a profit. AHT’s disclosed terms likewise do not establish hotel operating demand."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "kenji",
            "text": "Let’s separate rate levels from rate changes. The snapshot gave the 10-year Treasury yield as 5.117%; its reported change was −1.90 basis points. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point, so that change is about −0.019 percentage point, not −1.90%. AP later reported the yield back at 5.12%. Its oil figure was Brent, while the snapshot’s $98.40 was WTI; those are different benchmarks at different times."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "priya",
            "text": "The consumer picture was mixed too. AP reported that Winnebago’s profit held up better than expected even as high fuel costs and cautious shoppers weighed on interest in recreational vehicles; it said pricier towable models were harder to sell. That is a useful demand-side cross-current, but it is not hotel-booking evidence. AHT’s own filing describes a hotel portfolio operated through contracted managers, so company-specific operating evidence still matters."
          },
          {
            "speaker_id": "nate",
            "text": "The closing gains also sat alongside sharp single-name swings. AP reported that CoreWeave moved from an early gain near 4% to a decline of 4.5% before finishing down 0.5%, while Nvidia rose 2.5% and Super Micro Computer rose 9.5%. That is an uneven tape: a positive index close does not describe every stock’s path, much less establish persistence in an individual publication."
          }
        ]
      },
      "context_roundtable_sources": []
    },
    "updates": [
      {
        "day": 3,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-26T15:52:05.062883Z",
        "date": "Session 3 · Oct 26, 2026 · 11:52 NYSE",
        "text": "On session 3, AHT’s tracked gain rose 9.83 points to 20.20%; shares gained 8.97% to USD 3.073, above VWAP near the day’s upper range. Participation was light (0.20 times average volume; time-adjusted volume 0.13 and slowing). AHT still leads Real Estate by 19.19 points over 20 sessions, but dollar volume is 0.08 of average with distribution. The SEC filing specifies a USD 17 million six-month fee waiver, quarterly purchases of 2.5% of shares and ATM termination; implementation and economic effect remain unverified. The model gives 42% continuation odds by session 15, a near-flat median and a broad -14.6% to +21.1% range.",
        "price": 3.073,
        "pct": 20.2,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 20.04,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 20.04,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 9.88,
        "session_day": 3,
        "reference_price": 2.56,
        "reference_text": "$3.07 · +20.04% from $2.56 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": true,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-92bc4a8a69ad7d81b00c7e9021e61be699d9596bacc9241b13e7979cce1d0c68",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-26T15:19:48.386219Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 2,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-23T21:43:41.596360Z",
        "date": "Session 2 · Oct 23, 2026 · 17:43 NYSE",
        "text": "The tracked gain fell 3.52 points to 10.37% on session 2, with the latest captured price at $2.82; AHT remains above its $2.555 reference and ahead of Real Estate over 20 sessions. The pullback now sits beside below-average 20-session dollar activity and a distribution reading, while the current package still does not confirm that the announced terms took effect.",
        "price": 2.82,
        "pct": 10.37,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 10.16,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 10.16,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.9,
        "session_day": 2,
        "reference_price": 2.56,
        "reference_text": "$2.82 · +10.16% from $2.56 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-7fd59127de042ef2917d04dab2419e16f2267f96074f18a713548c8fd0d24224",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-23T21:04:51Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 2,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-23T20:16:10.570895Z",
        "date": "Session 2 · Oct 23, 2026 · 16:16 NYSE",
        "text": "The tracked AHT gain rose 0.54 points to 13.89% on session 2, while the current quote climbed 5.04% to $2.92 above VWAP on 1.14 times usual volume; the 20-session lead over Real Estate is 14.96 points. The market response remains supportive, but this capture does not establish that the fee waiver, share purchase or ATM termination has been implemented on disclosed terms.",
        "price": 2.92,
        "pct": 13.89,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 14.06,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 14.06,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 6.05,
        "session_day": 2,
        "reference_price": 2.56,
        "reference_text": "$2.92 · +14.06% from $2.56 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-23T19:22:12.987963Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 2,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-23T14:36:34.026691Z",
        "date": "Session 2 · Oct 23, 2026 · 10:36 NYSE",
        "text": "AHT’s tracked gain rose 4.54 points to +13.35% on session 2, while the separate 10:06 ET quote slipped 0.54% to $2.765—still above the session average and the $2.555 reference, but on only 0.15 of usual time-adjusted activity. The 20-session lead over Real Estate remains positive; neither it nor the model’s wide range shows that the announced fee waiver, purchase commitment or ATM termination took effect.",
        "price": 2.765,
        "pct": 13.35,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 8.01,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 8.01,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.58,
        "session_day": 2,
        "reference_price": 2.56,
        "reference_text": "$2.77 · +8.01% from $2.56 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
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        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-a10324c1e842ed8fc2a6fa61e6f2f539b0f8ec7ddec563b7c96f861c467782bb",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-23T14:06:04.621810Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
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      {
        "day": 1,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-22T22:04:51.436728Z",
        "date": "Session 1 · Oct 22, 2026 · 18:04 NYSE",
        "text": "The tracked gain slipped 1.56 points to 8.81% on session 1 after shares rose 12.55% to $2.78 above VWAP near the high on 4.25 times average daily volume; time-adjusted participation was only 0.15 times normal, and the price faded to $2.71 after hours. It remains above $2.555, but the package adds no issuer confirmation of the fee waiver, share purchase or ATM termination.",
        "price": 2.78,
        "pct": 8.81,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 8.59,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 8.59,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -0.98,
        "session_day": 1,
        "reference_price": 2.56,
        "reference_text": "$2.78 · +8.59% from $2.56 base",
        "timing": "",
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        "relevant": false,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-22T21:20:03Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
      },
      {
        "day": 1,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-22T19:46:59.875452Z",
        "date": "Session 1 · Oct 22, 2026 · 15:46 NYSE",
        "text": "AHT's tracked return moved 13.70 points from -3.33% to +10.37% on session 1. Shares rose 13.56% to $2.805, above VWAP near the high and back above the $2.555 reference; the 20-session lead over Real Estate is 7.79 points. Daily volume is 3.86 times average, but time-adjusted volume is 0.15, so participation signals conflict. The package adds no issuer confirmation of the announced fee waiver, share-purchase commitment or ATM termination. The model remains near even with a wide range through session 15.",
        "price": 2.805,
        "pct": 10.37,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": 9.57,
        "return_vs_base_pct": 9.57,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": 13.09,
        "session_day": 1,
        "reference_price": 2.56,
        "reference_text": "$2.81 · +9.57% from $2.56 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
        "active_relevant": false,
        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-ed1bd16b7fc5f6dbbeb4ebc1449c985ff74600cef8f917bcb1ed2381728f38bb",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-22T19:21:50.306215Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
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      {
        "day": 0,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-21T22:14:32.276128Z",
        "date": "Session 0 · Oct 21, 2026 · 18:14 NYSE",
        "text": "AHT’s first tracked reading is 3.33% below the published reference, putting the persistence claim under pressure after the announcement-day jump. The decline alone does not show that the $17 million fee waiver, share-purchase commitment or ATM termination was withdrawn—or that lasting supply relief is in place; the terms’ duration and financial impact remain unquantified, and no same-time market comparison is available.",
        "price": 2.47,
        "pct": -3.33,
        "return_vs_entry_pct": -3.52,
        "return_vs_base_pct": -3.52,
        "return_vs_prior_pct": null,
        "previous_regular_close": null,
        "change_vs_prior_session_pct": -3.52,
        "session_day": 0,
        "reference_price": 2.56,
        "reference_text": "$2.47 · -3.52% from $2.56 base",
        "timing": "",
        "market_marker": null,
        "extended_hours": null,
        "relevant": true,
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        "terminal_closure": false,
        "transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-7e13cad0f1d5660b3ac2fc8d47fe8a742fa2ec880d5d0f9f1bbd9ed7b6eb2abf",
        "price_as_of": "2026-10-21T21:19:14Z",
        "vwap_as_of": null
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    ],
    "observed_outcomes": [
      {
        "label": "+1 sessions",
        "status": "complete",
        "return": 8.81,
        "reference_text": "+8.81% from $2.56 base",
        "price": 2.78,
        "updated": "Oct 22, 2026 · 17:05 NYSE",
        "mfe": 11.55,
        "mae": -3.33
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      {
        "label": "+5 sessions",
        "status": "pending",
        "return": null,
        "reference_text": "",
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      {
        "label": "+10 sessions",
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        "label": "+15 sessions",
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    "candidate_comparison_history": [
      {
        "day": 0,
        "timestamp": "2026-10-21T22:14:32.276128Z",
        "comparison": {
          "schema_version": "public-candidate-comparison.v1",
          "captured_at": "2026-10-21T22:14:32.276128Z",
          "base_definition": "Candidates use the publication reference; benchmarks use the previous regular close.",
          "source": "sealed_update_market_context + canonical_candidate_snapshot + market_trajectory + public_market_snapshot",
          "rows": [
            {
              "symbol": "AHT",
              "role": "selected",
              "price": 2.56,
              "base_price": 2.555,
              "return_since_base_pct": 0.1957,
              "session_return_pct": 3.6437,
              "change_since_prior_pct": 0.0,
              "volume_ratio": 1054.67,
              "rsi": 61.97,
              "vwap": 2.47,
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              "position_52w_pct": 48.49,
              "extended_hours_pct": null,
              "as_of": "2026-10-21T21:19:14Z",
              "source": "yfinance_quote",
              "name": "Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc.",
              "episode_id": "narrative:AHT:09b452f8677a7f82",
              "ema_trend": "2.06 > 2.22 > 2.56",
              "vwap_state": "above",
              "selection_as_of": "2026-10-21T18:55:37Z",
              "facts": [
                "The issuer announcement described a $17 million advisory-fee waiver, a share-purchase commitment from Ashford Inc., and termination of the ATM share-sale program.",
                "Seven eligible provider observations run from 2026-10-21T18:14:13Z through 2026-10-21T18:55:37Z. The last eligible observation was $2.555 with a reported change of +42.737434%; the observed high was $2.5799.",
                "At the last eligible point, reported volume was 27,849,659 shares against a supplied three-month average of 26,435."
              ],
              "price_as_of": "2026-10-21T21:19:14Z",
              "vwap_as_of": null
            },
            {
              "symbol": "SPCX",
              "role": "alternative",
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              "base_price": 158.74,
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              "change_since_prior_pct": -0.157,
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              "rsi": 57.5,
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              "vwap_distance_pct": -1.7609,
              "position_52w_pct": 69.89,
              "extended_hours_pct": null,
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              "source": "yfinance_quote",
              "name": "Space Exploration Technologies Corp.",
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              "ema_trend": "153.38 > 153.58 > 147.08",
              "vwap_state": "below",
              "selection_as_of": "2026-10-21T18:56:18Z",
              "facts": [
                "The sealed N0 event was +7.15% on 1.85x average volume, with volume at the 93.8th percentile.",
                "At 2026-10-21T18:34:03Z, the intraday observation was $158.27 against a $161.85 VWAP, with a downward trend and a 0.145 range position.",
                "The packet contains an SEC 8-K record and secondary reporting about earnings and compute expansion, but the filing contents do not verify those reported details in this evidence."
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              "price_as_of": "2026-10-21T21:21:07Z",
              "vwap_as_of": null
            },
            {
              "symbol": "MEDP",
              "role": "alternative",
              "price": 650.49,
              "base_price": 654.61,
              "return_since_base_pct": -0.6294,
              "session_return_pct": -1.8099,
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              "volume_ratio": 2.11,
              "rsi": 70.84,
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              "source": "yfinance_quote",
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              "selection_as_of": "2026-10-21T18:56:07Z",
              "facts": [
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                "At 2026-10-21T18:33:27Z, the price observation was $654.47 against a $649.76 VWAP, with an upward intraday trend.",
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              "role": "alternative",
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                "At 2026-10-21T18:32:44Z, the price observation was $2.37 against a $2.45 VWAP, with a downward intraday trend; the accumulation/distribution reading was classified as distribution.",
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              "vwap": 26.75,
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              "position_52w_pct": 78.39,
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              "role": "selected",
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              "selection_as_of": "2026-10-21T18:32:47.089373Z",
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              "ema_trend": "1.84 > 1.71 > 1.7",
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