EAT episode 20261028_EAT_MIDDAY
Public episode JSON embedded as readable text for automated access.
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"episode_id": "20261028_EAT_MIDDAY",
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"public_page_url": "https://trydingday.com/coverage/eat/2026-10-28/midday/",
"published_at": "2026-10-28T19:57:32.546467Z",
"updated_at": "2026-10-28T21:49:29.718653Z",
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"stage": "tracking"
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"instrument": {
"type": "equity",
"symbol": "EAT",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"name": "Brinker International, Inc."
},
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"public_content": {
"date": "October 28, 2026",
"generated_at": "2026-10-28T19:57:32.546467Z",
"original_published_at": null,
"session_tag": "midday",
"label": "Market coverage",
"try_label": "Try of the Day",
"public_status": "Try of the Day",
"why_today": "Current Try of the Day: EAT. Reported Q1 FY2027 revenue growth, adjusted EPS and higher guidance give the earnings response a company-specific basis. The supplied record does not establish improved margins or show that the response will persist through the 15-session episode.",
"entry_reasoning": "Panel thesis: Brinker’s reported Q1 FY2027 revenue growth, adjusted EPS and raised FY2027 outlook provide a company-specific basis to test whether its earnings response can persist through the 15-session episode. The supplied record does not establish improved margins; that remains an open check. Invalidation boundary: A withdrawal or reduction of the raised outlook, deteriorating reported revenue or earnings, or later evidence of margin contraction would weaken the follow-through thesis.",
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"earnings_date": "2026-10-28",
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"short_pct_float": 17.11,
"days_to_cover": 3.19,
"catalyst": "Brinker International (EAT) Q1 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates",
"sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"sec_signal": "NO_RECENT_FORM4_SIGNAL"
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"review": {
"score": 2,
"status": "Try Of The Day",
"summary": "Provisional Try of the Day: EAT. Reported Q1 FY2027 revenue growth, adjusted EPS and higher guidance give the earnings response a company-specific basis. The supplied record does not establish improved margins or show that the response will persist through the 15-session episode.",
"views": [
{
"name": "Elena Vartanyan",
"role": "independent statistical auditor",
"icon": "🎯",
"view": "The shared picture is mildly constructive, but the index snapshot is already about forty minutes old at our cutoff. The separate participation proxy leans slightly negative, with an end-of-day layer unavailable. And the Atlanta Fed's 3.3% is a Q3 estimate, not a final GDP result. That is session context, not a candidate score.",
"reasoning": "The four-to-one decision stays Try of the Day for EAT. The company event and captured relative path support a provisional, testable thesis; the margin claim is removed, the shortlist is narrowed, and the model’s adverse range and older SEC input remain visible limits."
},
{
"name": "Marcus Feld",
"role": "information, fundamentals and catalyst analyst",
"icon": "🦊",
"view": "EAT has the clearest current operating mechanism: the supplied Q1 fiscal 2027 reports describe higher sales, adjusted EPS of $2.77, and a raised full-year outlook. Adjusted EPS is per-share earnings with some items excluded; the follow-up question is whether the underlying sales and margins support that outlook.",
"reasoning": "The model’s middle S15 return estimate is about +0.19%, with P10 and P90 at about −15.75% and +16.15%; its adverse-excursion median is about −8.25%, with P10 near −18.01%. Those are broad ranges from eight comparable cases, not a target. The SEC-aware downside estimate also uses prepared September 1 financial context whose point-in-time validity is unconfirmed."
},
{
"name": "Priya Nandakumar",
"role": "institutional risk and execution manager",
"icon": "🛡️",
"view": "The tape is strong, but it is an earnings-day move: +14.33%, RSI 70.82, and 2.41 ATR above the EMA reference. ATR is the stock's typical daily price range; being more than two ranges above that reference means a reversal could erase a lot quickly.",
"reasoning": "Nine alternatives made the public comparison harder to judge. Keep PPG, Bausch + Lomb and JLL: each has a dated earnings event and a captured response, so they are the closest tests of the Brinker case in this set. The narrower comparison leaves EAT as the selection."
},
{
"name": "Kenji Osei",
"role": "AI Systems & Market Data Integrity Analyst",
"icon": "🧠",
"view": "The H15 model estimate is only 51.7%, from eight comparable cases. Its median adverse excursion is about −8.25%, and P10 is −18.01%. Adverse excursion means the worst interim drop from entry within that horizon; that tail is real, and the small sample does not make the estimate certain.",
"reasoning": "Keep the change values labeled: the linked scan says +14.33%, the quote snapshot +14.28%, a 0.05 percentage-point difference. Those are changes from the prior close, not price levels. EAT’s final pre-cut trajectory point was +14.182592%."
},
{
"name": "Nate Brooks",
"role": "market structure and timing analyst",
"icon": "📈",
"view": "That is why I dissent. Fourteen percent on report day is not a fifteen-session path, and the model barely leans positive. I would call EAT a useful Raw Try until the next report confirms the operating trend.",
"reasoning": "That fixes the copy, but I still prefer Raw Try. The event is real; the packet still does not show a margin gain, and the model’s wide S15 range leaves me short of a defensible 15-session edge."
}
],
"conviction": {
"status_phrase": "recorded",
"basis": "The filed company event, raised outlook and captured relative path support EAT. The absent period-matched margin evidence, extension after the earnings move and wide eight-case return and adverse-excursion ranges limit the conclusion; the prepared SEC context behind the adverse-MAE output is older and not confirmed as point-in-time. These percentages express committee judgment, not calibrated odds.",
"risk": "",
"resolution_pct": 65.0,
"counter_case_pct": 25.0,
"unresolved_pct": 10.0
},
"context_roundtable": {
"mode": "coffee",
"status": "complete",
"consulted_voice_ids": [
"elena",
"marcus",
"kenji",
"priya",
"nate"
],
"summary": "The day’s supplied snapshot showed modest gains across major indexes, but it was captured before the Federal Reserve decision and was already beyond its freshness marker at the effective cutoff. A separate intraday breadth proxy suggested mixed participation and included stale quotes; end-of-day breadth was unavailable. The Atlanta Fed’s 3.3% Q3 GDPNow figure was a model estimate, not reported GDP. The Fed then held rates while inflation remained elevated and two members preferred a hike. Household cost pressures and geopolitical energy risks add uncertainty, while neither establishes an outcome for any individual company.",
"long_read": "The shared market snapshot was captured at 17:53:55 UTC, before the Federal Reserve announcement at 18:00 UTC. At capture, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 were modestly higher; the VIX was at 17.37, the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.02%, and the dollar little changed. Gold and WTI were mixed. Those are dated readings, not a post-decision market verdict, and the snapshot was older than its 15-minute freshness marker by the effective cutoff. A separate intraday breadth proxy showed mixed participation, but it is a limited sample with stale quotes; its end-of-day layer was not captured.\n\nThe Atlanta Fed’s final Q3 GDPNow estimate was 3.3%. GDPNow is a running model estimate, not an official forecast or a reported GDP result; its annualized rate expresses the quarter’s pace as if it continued for a year. Later, the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75%–4.00%. Inflation remained elevated, two members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase, and the first reported market reaction was mixed with Treasury yields higher. Separately, October consumer confidence improved as gasoline eased from September, although household costs remained elevated. Energy commentary described geopolitical escalation as a risk to oil markets while noting resilient physical flows. Together these sources describe cross-currents in growth, policy, household costs and energy; they do not establish a causal outlook for Brinker’s margins or results.",
"transcript": [
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "The Atlanta Fed’s 3.3% Q3 GDPNow figure is a model estimate, not completed GDP. It annualizes the quarter’s pace—as if that pace continued for a year—so it gives a growth signal, not a final result.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow"
]
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "The Fed held its target range at 3.75%–4.00%, while inflation remained elevated and two members preferred a 25-basis-point hike. That is a hold under disagreement, not a clean all-clear."
},
{
"speaker_id": "nate",
"text": "When we say the Fed “held,” does that mean policy is getting easier? The distinction matters when reading the market’s first reaction."
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "No. It means the target range stayed unchanged. The two votes for a hike show the committee was divided, and the initial market report described a mixed stock response with Treasury yields higher."
},
{
"speaker_id": "kenji",
"text": "The supplied index snapshot predates that decision, so it cannot explain the post-announcement response. The separate breadth proxy suggested mixed participation, but stale quotes and the missing end-of-day layer limit how broadly we can read it."
},
{
"speaker_id": "priya",
"text": "Consumer confidence improved in October as gasoline eased from September, yet households still reported pressure from energy and other costs. That is relevant background for restaurant spending, but it does not establish Brinker's margins or demand."
},
{
"speaker_id": "marcus",
"text": "Oil commentary adds another cross-current: strategists described sensitivity to geopolitical escalation, while physical flows remained resilient. That is a risk channel, not evidence that a supply disruption has occurred."
},
{
"speaker_id": "elena",
"text": "So the day’s backdrop combines a growth estimate with unsettled inflation and policy signals. Because the broad snapshot is pre-decision and breadth coverage is limited, it should remain context rather than a company-level conclusion.",
"source_urls": [
"https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow"
]
}
],
"source_urls": [
"https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow"
]
},
"context_roundtable_sources": [
{
"event_id": "mi_evt_81e69fe350ae7aacfbcb35ff",
"headline": "GDPNow final estimate for 2026:Q3 is 3.3%",
"url": "https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow",
"publisher": "Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta",
"source_quality": "primary",
"public_safe": true,
"published_at": "2026-10-28T15:00:00Z",
"available_at": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+00:00"
}
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},
"updates": [
{
"day": 0,
"timestamp": "2026-10-28T21:49:29.718653Z",
"date": "Session 0 · Oct 28, 2026 · 17:49 NYSE",
"text": "EAT's day-one capture gained 12.21% on 2.83 times usual volume and sat 0.47% above VWAP, while tracked return from the published entry remains -2.01%. The high-participation session supports the immediate earnings response, but one day cannot establish margin improvement or whether raised FY2027 guidance holds.",
"price": 220.74,
"pct": -2.01,
"return_vs_entry_pct": -1.85,
"return_vs_base_pct": -1.85,
"return_vs_prior_pct": null,
"previous_regular_close": null,
"change_vs_prior_session_pct": -1.85,
"session_day": 0,
"reference_price": 224.91,
"reference_text": "$220.74 · -1.85% from $224.91 base",
"timing": "",
"market_marker": null,
"extended_hours": null,
"relevant": false,
"active_relevant": false,
"terminal_closure": false,
"transcript_anchor": "",
"related_links": [
{
"headline": "Brinker International SEC 8-K filing",
"source": "SEC EDGAR",
"url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/703351/000070335126000036/eat-20261028.htm"
}
],
"thesis_change": {
"schema_version": "tryding-thesis-change.v1",
"assessment": "strengthens",
"claim": "The issuer-reported results and high-participation session strengthen the immediate response, while durability remains unproven.",
"summary": "The prepared issuer filing and the high-participation positive session support the immediate earnings response. The tracked return remains slightly negative from the recorded entry, and this first day does not establish improved margins or durable guidance.",
"evidence_refs": [
{
"kind": "market_observation",
"field": "return_vs_entry_pct",
"as_of": "2026-10-28T20:26:19.375087Z",
"value": -2.01,
"rationale": "A primary issuer filing is dated October 28, and the latest capture rose 12.21% on 2.83 times usual volume and remained above VWAP."
},
{
"kind": "source",
"url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/703351/000070335126000036/eat-20261028.htm",
"rationale": "The prepared handoff identifies the dated primary issuer filing relevant to the reported Q1 results and raised outlook.",
"source_type": "issuer",
"published_at": "2026-10-28T11:03:32Z"
}
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{
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{
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"as_of": "2026-10-28T20:06:57Z",
"source": "sealed_extended_quote",
"name": "Brinker International, Inc.",
"episode_id": "n0:EAT:2026-10-28",
"ema_trend": "198.4 > 198.68 > 202.02",
"vwap_state": "above",
"selection_as_of": "2026-10-28T16:24:30.445844Z",
"facts": [
"Supplied Q1 FY2027 results coverage reports revenue up 9.4% year over year, adjusted EPS of $2.77 and raised FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance of $13.30–$13.90.",
"The linked scan records a +14.33% change; the quote snapshot records +14.28%. The five-point pre-cut trajectory stayed around +13.2% to +14.2%, with the final point at +14.182592%.",
"The 20-session comparison records EAT at +15.88% and its XLY sector proxy at +5.68%."
],
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"nasdaq100": 11.6646,
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{
"symbol": "PPG",
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"name": "PPG Industries, Inc.",
"episode_id": "n0:PPG:2026-10-28",
"ema_trend": "111.87 > 109.4 > 109.61",
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"selection_as_of": "2026-10-28T16:25:36.282368Z",
"facts": [
"The supplied coverage reports a Q3 earnings beat and increased full-year EPS outlook; an SEC filing dated 2026-10-27 is present.",
"The linked scan change is +5.38% and the quote-snapshot change is +5.24%; the pre-cut trajectory ended at +5.6593776%.",
"RSI is 78.25 and price is 3.24 ATR above the EMA reference."
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{
"symbol": "BLCO",
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"as_of": "2026-10-28T21:19:53Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "Bausch + Lomb Corporation",
"episode_id": "n0:BLCO:2026-10-28",
"ema_trend": "17.6 > 17.25 > 17.12",
"vwap_state": "above",
"selection_as_of": "2026-10-28T16:22:29.603018Z",
"facts": [
"Supplied earnings summaries report Q3 EPS of $0.34 versus a $0.22 estimate, sales of $1.375 billion versus $1.373 billion, and raised FY2026 sales guidance; a same-day SEC filing is present.",
"The recorded change is +8.57%; the pre-cut trajectory ended at +10.763978%.",
"The prepared SEC balance-sheet snapshot dated 2026-03-31 records $268 million cash and $5.039 billion total debt; the share price was at 98.41% of its 52-week high."
],
"benchmark_excess_pct": {
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{
"symbol": "JLL",
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"session_return_pct": null,
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"volume_ratio": 1.7,
"rsi": 66.31,
"vwap": 330.22,
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"position_52w_pct": 84.74,
"extended_hours_pct": null,
"as_of": "2026-10-28T20:00:28Z",
"source": "yfinance_quote",
"name": "Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated",
"episode_id": "narrative:JLL:d45c51eed668d1bf",
"ema_trend": "309.6 > 310.91 > 326.18",
"vwap_state": "above",
"selection_as_of": "2026-10-28T18:34:03Z",
"facts": [
"The supplied Q3 summary reports adjusted EPS of $6.76 versus $6.16 and sales of $7.281 billion versus $7.239 billion; a same-day SEC filing is present.",
"The pre-cut trajectory eased from an earlier +12.299541% change to +11.302636% at its final point."
],
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},
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}
],
"benchmarks": [
{
"id": "sp500",
"symbol": "^GSPC",
"label": "S&P 500",
"role": "benchmark",
"price": 7743.98,
"base_price": 7722.6,
"return_since_base_pct": 0.2768,
"session_return_pct": 0.2768,
"as_of": "2026-10-28T21:46:16.958111Z",
"source": "yfinance.ticker_info",
"base_definition": "previous regular close"
},
{
"id": "nasdaq100",
"symbol": "^NDX",
"label": "Nasdaq 100",
"role": "benchmark",
"price": 29813.156,
"base_price": 29651.441,
"return_since_base_pct": 0.5454,
"session_return_pct": 0.5454,
"as_of": "2026-10-28T21:46:16.958111Z",
"source": "yfinance.ticker_info",
"base_definition": "previous regular close"
},
{
"id": "russell2000",
"symbol": "^RUT",
"label": "Russell 2000",
"role": "benchmark",
"price": 2830.5093,
"base_price": 2818.87,
"return_since_base_pct": 0.4129,
"session_return_pct": 0.4129,
"as_of": "2026-10-28T21:46:16.958111Z",
"source": "yfinance.ticker_info",
"base_definition": "previous regular close"
}
],
"coverage": {
"candidate_rows": 4,
"candidate_prices": 4,
"candidate_technical": 4,
"benchmark_rows": 3,
"day0_close_rows": 4,
"day0_close_prices": 0,
"day0_close_benchmark_rows": 0
}
}
}
],
"candidates": [
{
"symbol": "PPG",
"name": "PPG Industries, Inc.",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"tradingview_url": "https://es.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYSE%3APPG&interval=60",
"score": 2,
"price": 119.545,
"change": 5.38,
"volume": 2161278,
"avg_volume_3m": 1681778,
"volume_ratio": 1.29,
"rsi": 78.25,
"ema_trend": "111.87 > 109.4 > 109.61",
"position_52w_pct": 89.47,
"vwap": 118.93,
"vwap_distance_pct": null,
"vwap_state": "above",
"facts": [
"The supplied coverage reports a Q3 earnings beat and increased full-year EPS outlook; an SEC filing dated 2026-10-27 is present.",
"The linked scan change is +5.38% and the quote-snapshot change is +5.24%; the pre-cut trajectory ended at +5.6593776%.",
"RSI is 78.25 and price is 3.24 ATR above the EMA reference."
],
"role": "alternative",
"selected": false,
"reason": "PPG has a specific reported event and a sustained captured advance, but its RSI and distance from the EMA reference show greater extension than EAT’s at the cut."
},
{
"symbol": "BLCO",
"name": "Bausch + Lomb Corporation",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"tradingview_url": "https://es.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYSE%3ABLCO&interval=60",
"score": 7,
"price": 19.13,
"change": 8.57,
"volume": 1155633,
"avg_volume_3m": 440232,
"volume_ratio": 2.63,
"rsi": 68.68,
"ema_trend": "17.6 > 17.25 > 17.12",
"position_52w_pct": 98.41,
"vwap": 19.07,
"vwap_distance_pct": null,
"vwap_state": "above",
"facts": [
"Supplied earnings summaries report Q3 EPS of $0.34 versus a $0.22 estimate, sales of $1.375 billion versus $1.373 billion, and raised FY2026 sales guidance; a same-day SEC filing is present.",
"The recorded change is +8.57%; the pre-cut trajectory ended at +10.763978%.",
"The prepared SEC balance-sheet snapshot dated 2026-03-31 records $268 million cash and $5.039 billion total debt; the share price was at 98.41% of its 52-week high."
],
"role": "alternative",
"selected": false,
"reason": "BLCO has a documented earnings event and a strong response, but its older balance-sheet context and proximity to the 52-week high leave a less comfortable continuation case."
},
{
"symbol": "JLL",
"name": "Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated",
"exchange": "NYSE",
"tradingview_url": "https://es.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NYSE%3AJLL&interval=60",
"score": null,
"price": 333.83,
"change": null,
"volume": 652548.0,
"avg_volume_3m": 385059.0,
"volume_ratio": 1.7,
"rsi": 66.31,
"ema_trend": "309.6 > 310.91 > 326.18",
"position_52w_pct": 84.74,
"vwap": 330.22,
"vwap_distance_pct": null,
"vwap_state": "above",
"facts": [
"The supplied Q3 summary reports adjusted EPS of $6.76 versus $6.16 and sales of $7.281 billion versus $7.239 billion; a same-day SEC filing is present.",
"The pre-cut trajectory eased from an earlier +12.299541% change to +11.302636% at its final point."
],
"role": "alternative",
"selected": false,
"reason": "JLL has a specific earnings event and a substantial positive response, but its captured path had eased by the cut. Post-cut JLL captures are excluded from this comparison."
}
],
"news": [
{
"title": "SEC 8-K filing",
"url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/703351/000070335126000036/eat-20261028.htm"
}
],
"transcript_url": null,
"initial_transcript_anchor": "transcript-entry-bece37d7e6ed3547131204acd1ed23c9f81dcd632fe2149cffe66ec1e1dfa2ce",
"chart_url": null,
"secondary_chart_url": null,
"forecast_chart_url": null,
"methodology_url": "https://trydingday.com/methodology/",
"track_record_url": "https://trydingday.com/track-record/",
"market_timezone": "America/New_York"
}
}