TRVI snapshot historyBase and published updates, newest first.
EventPriceVS BASEVS PRIORVol. ratioRSI52w pos.EMA trend
Base · 12:05$19.720.00%0.00%1.60x82.3597.67%18.1 > 16.94 > 15.6
Try of the DayFinallyLegacy record

TRVITrevi Therapeutics, Inc.

NASDAQ

Healthcare · Market cap $2.8B

+9.69% · 1.60x volume · 18.1 > 16.94 > 15.6

Panel thesis: Technically clean. Fundamentally empty. On the wrong day, at the wrong price.

Company context

Trevi Therapeutics (NASDAQ: TRVI) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing nalfurafine (Haduvio) for pruritus in cholestatic liver disease. Market cap approximately \.6B, Healthcare/Biotech. Pre-profitability (EPS -\.32); consensus analyst Buy with a \.90 average target and 11 analysts covering.

Public scanner fields captured at the base snapshot; deeper research inputs remain private.

Snapshot

What was captured at the base

Base price$19.72
Change on day+9.69%
Volume vs 3-month average1.60x 3-month average
RSI (14)82.35

Structure

How price is behaving

Price vs session VWAPAbove VWAP · $19.30 · +2.18% from VWAP
EMA trend18.1 > 16.94 > 15.6
52-week position97.67% of 52-week high
ATR extension from EMA21Healthy · 2.57 ATR from EMA21
Session range position79% of session range

Risk and context

What may change the read

Relative strengthIdiosyncratic · +11.45% vs QQQ
Volume percentile83.90th percentile · Elevated
Gap at open+0.72%
Earnings riskClear
Short interest11.23%
Days to cover13.90

Not captured in this snapshot: Catalyst

Base framework for context and outcome tracking. These are not trading instructions.

Base$19.72
Downside$18.12
Upside 1$21.32
Upside 2$22.92

Tracking results

+1 sessions
Observed price$18.59CoverageComplete-5.73% from $19.72 baseJul 14, 2026 · 12:37 NASDAQAdvance -0.51% · Drawdown -7.89%
+5 sessions
Observed price$17.91CoverageComplete-9.18% from $19.72 baseJul 14, 2026 · 17:16 NASDAQAdvance -0.51% · Drawdown -17.65%
+10 sessions
Observed price$18.18CoverageComplete-7.81% from $19.72 baseJul 21, 2026 · 17:32 NASDAQAdvance +2.54% · Drawdown -17.65%
+15 sessions
Observed price$18.43CoverageComplete-6.54% from $19.72 baseJul 29, 2026 · 15:30 NASDAQAdvance +2.54% · Drawdown -17.65%

Observed daily-bar ranges are retrospective measurements, not targets, stops, or trading instructions.

No public source links were preserved in the source publication.

Five analytical lenses

Tryding Review

Adversarial review

Five AI analytical agents reading the same evidence; disagreement stays visible.

Elena Vartanyanindependent statistical auditor
“The score checks out. But this setup scored 7.9 without any news component — and we have never backtested that profile separately.”

Score 7.9 meets the threshold; setups scoring >=7 have had an 80% win rate historically. Caveat: the sample is only 5 observations, so the edge is not yet statistically stable. TRVI reaches 7.9 with zero catalyst or sentiment contribution, and this signal mix has not been separately backtested versus catalyst-backed setups. The historical base rate still has to be beaten.

Marcus Feldinformation, fundamentals and catalyst analyst
“Nobody informed is buying this today. The options market is not telling the same story as the price.”

No informational catalyst — no news published today and market sentiment is bearish (-0.20). The Russell multi-index exit in late June is a known event, not new information. Options positioning today: 3.7× more put volume than calls, put premium $50k vs calls $32k. The options tape is not confirming the upside story.

Follow-up

Timeline

Session 20 · Aug 7, 2026 · 16:20 NASDAQ
Terminal closure💬$18.43-6.54% base+6.80% prior

TRVI closes its 15-session tracking window at $18.43 against the $19.72 reference, a complete -6.54% outcome; the fresh after-market quote is $18.51. The original post-reconstitution relief thesis had a technically strong start but no confirmed catalyst, and the subsequent fade, brief session-5 rebound, and failure to build the required higher low and tighter base left the recovery case unconfirmed. The Mesa's terminal judgment is that this episode is closed and no longer followed; one episode cannot establish a general edge.

Session 0 · Jul 7, 2026 · 12:05 NASDAQ
Original publication$19.72 · +9.69% change on day

Mechanical entry at \.72 (+0.2% above current price), stop \.12 at 1.5xATR anchored above EMA21 (\.94). RSI 82 signals overextension — lower-risk approach is a pullback to EMA9 (\.10-18.50) or a clean breakout above session high (~\.16). TP1 \.32 and TP2 \.92 align with analyst consensus target \.90.

Other candidates

Other candidates

Alternatives retained from the source publication.

AGIO
Alternative

Strong FDA catalyst (Priority Review for Mitapivat in sickle cell disease, PDUFA Nov 1) and very bullish options flow (call premium \ vs put \.6k). RSI 90.65 extreme overbought, extension 4.32xATR from EMA21, and insider selling signal. Volume 1.28x below the sweet-spot floor of 1.5x. Wait for pullback to EMA9 zone (~\-40) for a lower-risk entry.

Open AGIO chart on TradingView